- Newspoll's two-party preferred (TPP) estimate is unchanged on a fortnight ago (at 55/45 in the Coalition's favour). Its estimate of the Coalition's primary vote dropped two percentage points (from 48 to 46). Labor's primary vote estimate is unchanged on last fortnight (32).
- Morgan's TPP estimate moved two percentage points in Labor's favour (54/46), and the Coalition's primary vote dropped 3.5 points (from 47.5 to 44). Labor's primary vote estimate is up half a point on last week (from 32 to 32.5).
- Essential's TPP estimate is unchanged on last week (55/45), but down a percentage point on a fortnight ago for the Coalition. The Coalition's primary vote is unchanged on last week, but down a point on a fortnight ago (from 49 to 48). Labor's primary vote estimate is up two points on a fortnight ago (from 32 to 34).
The raw TPP chart and 90 day TPP LOESS follow:
The Bayesian aggregation yields a TPP estimate of 55 to 45 in the Coalition's favour, which would see the Coalition win around 95 seats and Labor around 52 seats in a Federal election.The aggregation has moved 0.8 percentage points in Labor's favour on last week.
My (albeit more speculative) Bayesian aggregations of the primary vote shares follow. We can see the (so-far, unexplained) movement of primary vote share from the Coalition to other, which was evident in the latest polling results.