- Essential has moved a point in the Coalition's favour (now 56 to 44) over last week and the previous independent fortnight
- Newspoll has moved a point in the Coalition's favour (now 56 to 44) over the previous Newspoll
- Morgan has moved half a point in Labor's favour over last week (now 56 to 44)
The raw poll results follow:
The decline has affected the Bayesian aggregation:
The projected seat outcome for the House of Representatives from the Bayesian aggregation was: 99 seats for the Coalition, 48 for Labor and three for others. The result almost tipped 100 (and indeed, the Henderson smoothed line above did tip 100-47-3).