Weekly aggregation: back where we were a month ago

Last week, I urged caution with one poll suggesting a decline in Labor support. This week, we see more evidence of a decline in Labor support:

• Essential has moved a point in the Coalition's favour (now 56 to 44) over last week and the previous independent fortnight
• Newspoll has moved a point in the Coalition's favour (now 56 to 44) over the previous Newspoll
• Morgan has moved half a point in Labor's favour over last week (now 56 to 44)

The raw poll results follow:

The decline has affected the Bayesian aggregation:

The projected seat outcome for the House of Representatives from the Bayesian aggregation was: 99 seats for the Coalition, 48 for Labor and three for others. The result almost tipped 100 (and indeed, the Henderson smoothed line above did tip 100-47-3).