Saturday, August 31, 2013

Betting market update

From time-to-time I have been looking at Centrebet's individual seats betting market. In this morning's 9.30am run, you will note that Centrebet did not have odds for the WA seat of Durack. However, in previous runs, Durack was the safest Coalition seat at Centrebet. For the purpose of today's exercise we will treat it similarly.

The total predicted seats for each party, assuming the favourite in each seat wins, is as follows.

Coalition Labor Other
Seat count 91 57 2

The seat-by-seat probabilities follow.

State Labor Coalition Other current favourite change
Parramatta NSW 43.3 49.5 7.1 Labor Coalition TRUE
Kingsford Smith NSW 50.5 45.3 4.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Lyons TAS 43.7 50.8 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Brand WA 44.8 51.2 4.0 Labor Coalition TRUE
Lingiari NT 52.3 40.2 7.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Petrie QLD 54.8 42.1 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hindmarsh SA 55.6 40.4 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Eden-Monaro NSW 39.2 56.4 4.4 Labor Coalition TRUE
Page NSW 56.7 38.2 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Brisbane QLD 38.4 56.9 4.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Moreton QLD 38.4 56.9 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Blair QLD 57.8 38.9 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Lilley QLD 58.3 38.0 3.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Capricornia QLD 60.1 34.2 5.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Barton NSW 60.2 34.2 5.6 Labor Labor FALSE
McEwen VIC 60.6 35.1 4.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Franklin TAS 61.8 31.4 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Griffith QLD 64.6 30.1 5.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Werriwa NSW 65.6 30.5 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
McMahon NSW 67.3 29.6 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Indi VIC 4.1 68.1 27.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Robertson NSW 20.9 68.5 10.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Flynn QLD 24.8 68.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Richmond NSW 69.0 23.9 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Greenway NSW 28.1 69.1 2.9 Labor Coalition TRUE
Chisholm VIC 69.4 24.8 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Bonner QLD 26.2 69.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Solomon NT 25.1 69.8 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Dobell NSW 22.4 69.9 7.6 Other Coalition TRUE
Hasluck WA 26.4 70.2 3.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Melbourne VIC 70.4 2.6 27.0 Other Labor TRUE
Adelaide SA 70.9 23.1 6.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Dawson QLD 22.9 71.3 5.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
La Trobe VIC 23.2 71.3 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Banks NSW 21.9 73.0 5.2 Labor Coalition TRUE
Bendigo VIC 73.1 20.3 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Forde QLD 21.9 73.1 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bruce VIC 73.3 20.4 6.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Reid NSW 21.7 73.6 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Longman QLD 20.7 74.4 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Rankin QLD 74.8 20.8 4.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Newcastle NSW 74.9 18.0 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Perth WA 75.2 18.0 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Herbert QLD 18.2 75.8 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wakefield SA 76.6 17.5 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Fisher QLD 14.3 76.8 8.9 Other Coalition TRUE
Melbourne Ports VIC 76.9 16.4 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Leichhardt QLD 16.5 77.3 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Swan WA 18.6 77.5 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Casey VIC 14.4 78.5 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Throsby NSW 78.9 14.4 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Fowler NSW 79.4 16.9 3.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Chifley NSW 79.9 14.6 5.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Macquarie NSW 14.7 80.2 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Corangamite VIC 12.3 80.3 7.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Deakin VIC 13.3 80.3 6.3 Labor Coalition TRUE
Braddon TAS 14.8 80.5 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Dunkley VIC 12.3 80.6 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Fremantle WA 80.7 13.4 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Canning WA 14.8 80.8 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Makin SA 81.2 14.9 4.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Denison TAS 13.9 4.9 81.2 Other Other FALSE
Gilmore NSW 12.4 81.3 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Fadden QLD 10.0 81.4 8.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bowman QLD 13.5 81.4 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Oxley QLD 81.7 15.0 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Hinkler QLD 8.5 81.9 9.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Fairfax QLD 5.1 81.9 13.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Ryan QLD 10.1 82.2 7.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McMillan VIC 11.6 82.4 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lindsay NSW 13.7 82.4 3.9 Labor Coalition TRUE
Stirling WA 10.8 82.5 6.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Jagajaga VIC 82.6 11.6 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Wright QLD 5.6 83.0 11.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Isaacs VIC 83.3 11.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Blaxland NSW 83.3 12.7 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Bass TAS 11.8 83.5 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Ballarat VIC 83.9 10.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Cowan WA 10.3 83.9 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Sturt SA 11.0 83.9 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hunter NSW 83.9 10.9 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Batman VIC 83.9 5.7 10.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Bennelong NSW 11.9 84.2 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Sydney NSW 84.3 5.7 10.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Macarthur NSW 11.1 84.6 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Watson NSW 84.6 11.1 4.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Dickson QLD 9.8 85.0 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Charlton NSW 85.1 5.7 9.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Shortland NSW 85.2 9.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Canberra ACT 85.3 8.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Cunningham NSW 85.4 8.7 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Aston VIC 8.7 85.4 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kooyong VIC 6.6 85.5 7.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kingston SA 85.5 9.8 4.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Lalor VIC 85.7 7.2 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Berowra NSW 6.7 85.8 7.5 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lyne NSW 8.8 86.1 5.2 Other Coalition TRUE
Boothby SA 8.9 86.3 4.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hume NSW 7.3 86.3 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Corio VIC 86.4 7.3 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Flinders VIC 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cook NSW 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wentworth NSW 5.1 86.7 8.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Maribyrnong VIC 86.8 7.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Higgins VIC 6.7 86.8 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Paterson NSW 8.0 86.9 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McPherson QLD 6.8 86.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grey SA 6.8 87.0 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Gippsland VIC 6.8 87.0 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Barker SA 6.8 87.1 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Calare NSW 7.3 87.1 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Curtin WA 4.2 87.2 8.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bradfield NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grayndler NSW 87.2 5.2 7.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Mackellar NSW 5.2 87.2 7.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
North Sydney NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Goldstein VIC 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Scullin VIC 87.3 6.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Moore WA 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Holt VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hotham VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hughes NSW 8.1 87.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Forrest WA 6.6 87.7 5.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wide Bay QLD 5.9 87.7 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mallee VIC 6.8 87.7 5.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Warringah NSW 5.2 87.8 7.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Moncrieff QLD 6.9 87.9 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Calwell VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Gorton VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Fraser ACT 88.1 5.9 6.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Murray VIC 6.8 88.1 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
New England NSW 4.2 88.2 7.5 Other Coalition TRUE
Gellibrand VIC 88.3 5.2 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Menzies VIC 5.3 88.4 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cowper NSW 7.5 88.6 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mayo SA 5.3 88.7 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mitchell NSW 6.9 88.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Parkes NSW 6.9 88.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Tangney WA 6.0 88.8 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Port Adelaide SA 89.1 6.0 4.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Riverina NSW 6.9 89.1 4.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Pearce WA 5.2 89.2 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Maranoa QLD 5.3 89.4 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Farrer NSW 6.0 89.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wills VIC 89.9 3.5 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Groom QLD 6.1 90.5 3.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kennedy QLD 4.1 5.1 90.8 Other Other FALSE
Wannon VIC 4.4 91.5 4.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
O'Connor WA 3.3 93.0 3.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Durack WA 0.0 100.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE

Applying the cube law to convert the seats won prediction from the betting market to an estimate of the two-party preferred vote for Labor, we get a result of 46.16 percent for Labor.

Of note elsewhere: Simon Jackman said "the betting markets are posting prices I've never seen".

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Midweek update

Today's ReachTEL is consistent with Labor arresting its decline in the polls. However, at 47-53 in the Coalition's favour, the polls are still predicting a sizable Coalition win.


Also, something we have not done for some time is look at how the primary votes have been tracking since Kevin's restoration. For this exercise, I will start with a simple 30-day LOESS regression to plot the trend.





We can look at the primary vote trends from the individual pollsters to get a sense of how consistent or inconsistent the trend is across polling houses:





And we can pop the primary votes into a Bayesian model ... which among its constraints, seeks to ensure the four types of primary vote (Coalition, Labor, Greens and Other) sum to 100 per cent.











Monday, August 26, 2013

Weekly update

Three key polls since last Monday's aggregation:

  • Morgan - 47.5-52.5 in the Coalition's favour - moved half a percentage point to the Coalition
  • Newspoll - 47-53 in the Coalition's favour - moved a percentage point to Labor
  • Nielsen - 47-53 in the Coalition's favour - moved a percentage point to the Coalition

While there has been a lot in today's paper about the significance of Newspoll moving a point to Labor, I suspect it is nothing more than the usual noise we see in randomly sampled opinion polls.



Aggregating these polls gives me a result that suggests Labor's slide in the polls might be coming to an end (but before calling it, let's wait an see what next week's data shows). Collectively, the polls are suggesting a sizable win for the Coalition.



At this point in the blog, it is my normal practice to remind people that I anchor the above Bayesian aggregation with the assumption that the net bias across all of the polling houses sums to zero. You will need to come to your own view about where the actual level of collective systemic bias lies for all the pollsters. At the 2010 Election (with a different set of pollsters), the population voting intention was about one percentage point more in the Coalition's favour compared with the pollster average (see here). In light of the 2010 experience, it is arguably plausible to subtract (say) half a percentage point or more from the above aggregation to adjust for the collective systemic bias across all of the polling houses. [As an aside, you will note that Simon Jackman, who seeks to anchor his Bayesian models with respect to the outcome of past elections regularly produces an aggregated poll that tracks well below the vast majority of individual poll results].

The astute among you will have noticed that I no longer include the Essential poll in the aggregation. I have excluded it because this series does not behave like a polling series. In plain English, it does not bounce around enough.


Aggregating just Newspoll and Nielsen yields ...



Sunday, August 25, 2013

Betting Market Update

This morning, in the seat-by-seat probabilities from Centrebet, Eden Monaro has the Coalition as the favourite. Two seats are on a knife edge: Lyons and Kingsford Smith.

If the favourite wins in each case, we would have a new House of Representatives after the election as follows (giving the Coalition and Labor one each of the two coin flip seats):


Coalition Labor Other
Seat count 89 59 2

Turning to the individual seats:


State Labor Coalition Other current favourite change
Lyons TAS 47.3 47.3 5.5 Labor ? ?
Kingsford Smith NSW 47.9 47.9 4.3 Labor ? ?
Parramatta NSW 49.5 43.3 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Eden-Monaro NSW 42.9 51.7 5.4 Labor Coalition TRUE
Lingiari NT 52.3 40.2 7.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Petrie QLD 54.8 42.1 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hindmarsh SA 55.6 40.4 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Page NSW 56.7 38.2 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Brisbane QLD 38.4 56.9 4.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Moreton QLD 38.4 56.9 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Blair QLD 57.8 38.9 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Franklin TAS 59.4 33.8 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Barton NSW 60.2 34.2 5.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Lilley QLD 61.0 35.4 3.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Robertson NSW 26.3 62.2 11.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Brand WA 62.4 31.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Capricornia QLD 62.5 31.8 5.7 Labor Labor FALSE
McEwen VIC 65.3 30.4 4.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Werriwa NSW 65.6 30.5 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Dobell NSW 25.3 67.1 7.7 Other Coalition TRUE
La Trobe VIC 27.3 67.2 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Griffith QLD 67.3 27.4 5.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Indi VIC 4.1 68.1 27.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Flynn QLD 24.8 68.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Richmond NSW 69.0 23.9 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Greenway NSW 28.1 69.1 2.9 Labor Coalition TRUE
Chisholm VIC 69.4 24.8 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Bonner QLD 26.2 69.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Solomon NT 25.1 69.8 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hasluck WA 26.4 70.2 3.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Banks NSW 24.4 70.4 5.2 Labor Coalition TRUE
Melbourne VIC 70.4 2.6 27.0 Other Labor TRUE
McMahon NSW 70.4 26.5 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Adelaide SA 70.9 23.1 6.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Dawson QLD 22.9 71.3 5.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Forde QLD 21.9 73.1 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bruce VIC 73.3 20.4 6.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Reid NSW 21.7 73.6 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Longman QLD 20.7 74.4 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Braddon TAS 20.7 74.6 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Rankin QLD 74.8 20.8 4.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Casey VIC 18.1 74.8 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Newcastle NSW 74.9 18.0 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Leichhardt QLD 18.1 75.6 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bass TAS 18.3 76.2 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Herbert QLD 18.3 76.2 5.5 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Fisher QLD 14.3 76.8 8.9 Other Coalition TRUE
Melbourne Ports VIC 76.9 16.4 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Fairfax QLD 6.6 77.1 16.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Swan WA 18.6 77.5 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wakefield SA 77.6 16.5 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Bendigo VIC 78.4 15.0 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Throsby NSW 78.9 14.4 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Fowler NSW 79.4 16.9 3.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Chifley NSW 79.9 14.6 5.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Perth WA 80.0 13.3 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Macquarie NSW 14.7 80.2 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Corangamite VIC 12.3 80.3 7.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Deakin VIC 13.3 80.3 6.3 Labor Coalition TRUE
Gilmore NSW 13.4 80.4 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Dunkley VIC 12.3 80.6 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Fremantle WA 80.7 13.4 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Canning WA 14.8 80.8 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Makin SA 81.2 14.9 4.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Denison TAS 13.9 4.9 81.2 Other Other FALSE
Fadden QLD 10.0 81.4 8.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bowman QLD 13.5 81.4 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Oxley QLD 81.7 15.0 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Hinkler QLD 8.5 81.9 9.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Ryan QLD 10.1 82.2 7.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McMillan VIC 11.6 82.4 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bennelong NSW 13.7 82.4 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lindsay NSW 13.7 82.4 3.9 Labor Coalition TRUE
Stirling WA 10.8 82.5 6.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Jagajaga VIC 82.6 11.6 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Wright QLD 5.6 83.0 11.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Isaacs VIC 83.3 11.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Sturt SA 11.2 83.6 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Ballarat VIC 83.9 10.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Cowan WA 10.3 83.9 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hunter NSW 83.9 10.9 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Batman VIC 83.9 5.7 10.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Sydney NSW 84.3 5.7 10.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Macarthur NSW 11.1 84.6 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Watson NSW 84.6 11.1 4.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Blaxland NSW 84.9 11.1 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Dickson QLD 9.8 85.0 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Charlton NSW 85.1 5.7 9.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Shortland NSW 85.2 9.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Canberra ACT 85.3 8.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Cunningham NSW 85.4 8.7 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Aston VIC 8.7 85.4 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kooyong VIC 6.6 85.5 7.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kingston SA 85.5 9.8 4.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Lalor VIC 85.7 7.2 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Kennedy QLD 5.0 9.4 85.7 Other Other FALSE
Berowra NSW 6.7 85.8 7.5 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lyne NSW 8.8 86.1 5.2 Other Coalition TRUE
Boothby SA 8.9 86.3 4.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hume NSW 7.3 86.3 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Corio VIC 86.4 7.3 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Flinders VIC 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cook NSW 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wentworth NSW 5.1 86.7 8.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Maribyrnong VIC 86.8 7.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Higgins VIC 6.7 86.8 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Paterson NSW 8.0 86.9 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McPherson QLD 6.8 86.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grey SA 6.8 87.0 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Gippsland VIC 6.8 87.0 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Barker SA 6.8 87.1 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Calare NSW 7.3 87.1 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Curtin WA 4.2 87.2 8.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bradfield NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grayndler NSW 87.2 5.2 7.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Mackellar NSW 5.2 87.2 7.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
North Sydney NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Goldstein VIC 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Scullin VIC 87.3 6.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Moore WA 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Holt VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hotham VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hughes NSW 8.1 87.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Forrest WA 6.6 87.7 5.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wide Bay QLD 5.9 87.7 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mallee VIC 6.8 87.7 5.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Warringah NSW 5.2 87.8 7.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Moncrieff QLD 6.9 87.9 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Calwell VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Gorton VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Fraser ACT 88.1 5.9 6.0 Labor Labor FALSE
New England NSW 6.8 88.1 5.0 Other Coalition TRUE
Murray VIC 6.8 88.1 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Gellibrand VIC 88.3 5.2 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Menzies VIC 5.3 88.4 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cowper NSW 7.5 88.6 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mayo SA 5.3 88.7 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mitchell NSW 6.9 88.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Parkes NSW 6.9 88.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Tangney WA 6.0 88.8 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Port Adelaide SA 89.1 6.0 4.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Riverina NSW 6.9 89.1 4.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Pearce WA 5.2 89.2 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Maranoa QLD 5.3 89.4 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Farrer NSW 6.0 89.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wills VIC 89.9 3.5 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Groom QLD 6.1 90.5 3.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wannon VIC 4.4 91.5 4.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
O'Connor WA 3.3 93.0 3.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Durack WA 3.3 93.9 2.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE

If we apply the cube rule to these seat totals, it yields a notional TPP vote share for Labor of 46.6 per cent. This is a better result for the Coalition than most of the current opinion polls.

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Nielsen 47-53

Today's Nielsen continues the string of poor poll results for Labor.



If I plug today's Nielson poll into my regular aggregation ...


Updating my Newspoll/Nielsen only aggregation ... notwithstanding the recent slump, Mr Rudd is still doing better in the polls than under Ms Gillard's last three months.




Friday, August 23, 2013

Betting market update

While the Centrebet individual seat odds have moved around a little from last week (on average, perhaps just a touch towards the Coalition), tonight's run (at 7.53pm) yielded much the same overall outcome as last week: the favourites suggest a fairly compelling Coalition win.


Coalition Labor Other
Seat count 87 61 2

The individual seat outcome probabilities are as follows, ordered from the least probable to the most probable. Of note: while the I have marked Kingsford Smith as a Labor retain, the probabilities have it as a coin toss.


State Labor Coalition Other current favourite change
Kingsford Smith NSW 47.9 47.9 4.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Eden-Monaro NSW 50.4 44.1 5.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Parramatta NSW 50.8 42.1 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Lingiari NT 52.3 40.2 7.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Petrie QLD 54.8 42.1 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Page NSW 56.7 38.2 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Brisbane QLD 38.4 56.9 4.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Moreton QLD 38.4 56.9 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Blair QLD 57.8 38.9 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Lyons TAS 58.6 35.9 5.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Barton NSW 60.2 34.2 5.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Lilley QLD 61.0 35.4 3.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Hindmarsh SA 61.2 34.8 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Robertson NSW 26.3 62.2 11.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Brand WA 62.4 31.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Capricornia QLD 62.5 31.8 5.7 Labor Labor FALSE
McEwen VIC 65.3 30.4 4.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Franklin TAS 66.3 26.9 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Dobell NSW 25.3 67.1 7.7 Other Coalition TRUE
La Trobe VIC 27.3 67.2 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Banks NSW 27.4 67.4 5.2 Labor Coalition TRUE
Indi VIC 4.1 68.1 27.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Dawson QLD 25.7 68.4 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Flynn QLD 24.8 68.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Richmond NSW 69.0 23.9 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Greenway NSW 28.1 69.1 2.9 Labor Coalition TRUE
Chisholm VIC 69.4 24.8 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Bonner QLD 26.2 69.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Solomon NT 25.1 69.8 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hasluck WA 26.4 70.2 3.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Melbourne VIC 70.4 2.6 27.0 Other Labor TRUE
Longman QLD 24.5 70.5 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Werriwa NSW 70.8 25.3 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Adelaide SA 70.9 23.1 6.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Forde QLD 23.8 71.3 4.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McMahon NSW 71.9 25.0 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Braddon TAS 22.0 73.3 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Bruce VIC 73.3 20.4 6.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Reid NSW 21.7 73.6 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Bass TAS 20.5 74.0 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Herbert QLD 20.5 74.0 5.5 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Rankin QLD 74.8 20.8 4.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Casey VIC 18.1 74.8 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Newcastle NSW 74.9 18.0 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Denison TAS 19.5 4.9 75.6 Other Other FALSE
Leichhardt QLD 18.1 75.6 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Griffith QLD 75.9 18.8 5.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Fisher QLD 14.3 76.8 8.9 Other Coalition TRUE
Melbourne Ports VIC 76.9 16.4 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Fairfax QLD 6.6 77.1 16.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Swan WA 18.6 77.5 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wakefield SA 77.6 16.5 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Bendigo VIC 78.4 15.0 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Throsby NSW 78.9 14.4 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Hinkler QLD 10.5 79.2 10.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Fowler NSW 79.4 16.9 3.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Chifley NSW 79.9 14.6 5.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Perth WA 80.0 13.3 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Macquarie NSW 14.7 80.2 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Corangamite VIC 12.3 80.3 7.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Deakin VIC 13.3 80.3 6.3 Labor Coalition TRUE
Gilmore NSW 13.4 80.4 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Dunkley VIC 12.3 80.6 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Fremantle WA 80.7 13.4 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Canning WA 14.8 80.8 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Makin SA 81.2 14.9 4.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Fadden QLD 10.0 81.4 8.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bowman QLD 13.5 81.4 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Oxley QLD 81.7 15.0 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Ryan QLD 10.1 82.2 7.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McMillan VIC 11.6 82.4 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bennelong NSW 13.7 82.4 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lindsay NSW 13.7 82.4 3.9 Labor Coalition TRUE
Stirling WA 10.8 82.5 6.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Jagajaga VIC 82.6 11.6 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Wright QLD 5.6 83.0 11.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Isaacs VIC 83.3 11.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Sturt SA 11.2 83.6 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Ballarat VIC 83.9 10.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Cowan WA 10.3 83.9 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hunter NSW 83.9 10.9 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Batman VIC 83.9 5.7 10.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Sydney NSW 84.3 5.7 10.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Macarthur NSW 11.1 84.6 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Watson NSW 84.6 11.1 4.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Blaxland NSW 84.9 11.1 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Dickson QLD 9.8 85.0 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Charlton NSW 85.1 5.7 9.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Shortland NSW 85.2 9.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Canberra ACT 85.3 8.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Cunningham NSW 85.4 8.7 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Aston VIC 8.7 85.4 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kooyong VIC 6.6 85.5 7.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kingston SA 85.5 9.8 4.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Lalor VIC 85.7 7.2 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Kennedy QLD 5.0 9.4 85.7 Other Other FALSE
Berowra NSW 6.7 85.8 7.5 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lyne NSW 8.8 86.1 5.2 Other Coalition TRUE
Boothby SA 8.9 86.3 4.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hume NSW 7.3 86.3 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Corio VIC 86.4 7.3 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Flinders VIC 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cook NSW 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wentworth NSW 5.1 86.7 8.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Maribyrnong VIC 86.8 7.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Higgins VIC 6.7 86.8 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Paterson NSW 8.0 86.9 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McPherson QLD 6.8 86.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grey SA 6.8 87.0 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Gippsland VIC 6.8 87.0 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Barker SA 6.8 87.1 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Calare NSW 7.3 87.1 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Curtin WA 4.2 87.2 8.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bradfield NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grayndler NSW 87.2 5.2 7.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Mackellar NSW 5.2 87.2 7.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
North Sydney NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Goldstein VIC 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Scullin VIC 87.3 6.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Moore WA 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Holt VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hotham VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hughes NSW 8.1 87.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Forrest WA 6.6 87.7 5.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wide Bay QLD 5.9 87.7 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mallee VIC 6.8 87.7 5.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Warringah NSW 5.2 87.8 7.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Moncrieff QLD 6.9 87.9 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Calwell VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Gorton VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Fraser ACT 88.1 5.9 6.0 Labor Labor FALSE
New England NSW 6.8 88.1 5.0 Other Coalition TRUE
Murray VIC 6.8 88.1 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Gellibrand VIC 88.3 5.2 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Menzies VIC 5.3 88.4 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cowper NSW 7.5 88.6 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mayo SA 5.3 88.7 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mitchell NSW 6.9 88.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Parkes NSW 6.9 88.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Tangney WA 6.0 88.8 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Port Adelaide SA 89.1 6.0 4.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Riverina NSW 6.9 89.1 4.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Pearce WA 5.2 89.2 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Maranoa QLD 5.3 89.4 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Farrer NSW 6.0 89.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wills VIC 89.9 3.5 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Groom QLD 6.1 90.5 3.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wannon VIC 4.4 91.5 4.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
O'Connor WA 3.3 93.0 3.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Durack WA 3.3 93.9 2.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Two 50/50 polls

Over the past 24 hours, we have seen three new polls:

  • Essential at 50/50 moved a point in Labor's favour since the previous Essential poll
  • AMR at 50/50 moved a point in the Coalition's favour since the previous AMR poll
  • Lonergan at 48-52 in the Coalition's favour and a movement of two points to the Coalition since the previous Lonergan poll.

I will look at these polls more closely in my next update. 

Monday, August 19, 2013

Monday update

At the end of week two in the five week election campaign there was a slew of individual marginal seat polls, all of which were pretty ugly for Labor. At the start of the third week in the campaign, we have three national polls in. Again, they were pretty ugly for Labor:

  • Newspoll came in at 46 to 54 in the Coalition's favour - a two point movement to the Coalition.
  • Morgan came in at 48 to 52 in the Coalition's favour - a half point movement to the Coalition.
  • Galaxy came in at 48 to 52 in the Coalition's favour - a one point movement to the Coalition.



If it were a normal polling week and Newspoll had moved two points in a week, at this point in the blog I would be noting that a two point movement is not unusual. Furthermore, it is far more likely to be noise than signal (and in most circumstances one would expect it to be followed quickly by a poll move in the opposite direction). Isolated moves in opinion polling data need to be corroborated, before being given any analytical weight.

However, this is not a normal polling week with one poll bouncing around within its normal margin of error. So far, all of the national polls have moved to the Coalition this week. And this movement is consistent with the numerous marginal seat polls we saw over the weekend, which also suggested a move in voting intention to the Coalition. It may not be by as much as two points, but some some movement towards the Coalition in the past week is the most likely scenario. This can be seen in the following aggregation (Note: updated chart from original post to accommodate an expanded Newspoll sample size).








At this point in the blog, it is my normal practice to remind people that I anchor the above Bayesian aggregation with the assumption that the net bias across all of the polling houses sums to zero. You will need to come to your own view about where the actual level of collective systemic bias lies for all the pollsters. At the 2010 Election (with a different set of pollsters), the population voting intention was about one percentage point more in the Coalition's favour compared with the pollster average (see here). In light of the 2010 experience, it is arguably plausible to subtract (say) half a percentage point or more from the above aggregation to adjust for the collective systemic bias across all of the polling houses. [As an aside, you will note that Simon Jackman, who seeks to anchor his Bayesian models with respect to the outcome of past elections regularly produces an aggregated poll that tracks well below the vast majority of individual poll results].

Having looked at the aggregation, let's pick through the entrails of the latest Newspoll. The recent changes in the attitudinal polling is perhaps the most interesting aspect of this latest release.