Saturday, August 31, 2013

Betting market update

From time-to-time I have been looking at Centrebet's individual seats betting market. In this morning's 9.30am run, you will note that Centrebet did not have odds for the WA seat of Durack. However, in previous runs, Durack was the safest Coalition seat at Centrebet. For the purpose of today's exercise we will treat it similarly.

The total predicted seats for each party, assuming the favourite in each seat wins, is as follows.

Coalition Labor Other
Seat count 91 57 2

The seat-by-seat probabilities follow.

State Labor Coalition Other current favourite change
Parramatta NSW 43.3 49.5 7.1 Labor Coalition TRUE
Kingsford Smith NSW 50.5 45.3 4.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Lyons TAS 43.7 50.8 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Brand WA 44.8 51.2 4.0 Labor Coalition TRUE
Lingiari NT 52.3 40.2 7.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Petrie QLD 54.8 42.1 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hindmarsh SA 55.6 40.4 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Eden-Monaro NSW 39.2 56.4 4.4 Labor Coalition TRUE
Page NSW 56.7 38.2 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Brisbane QLD 38.4 56.9 4.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Moreton QLD 38.4 56.9 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Blair QLD 57.8 38.9 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Lilley QLD 58.3 38.0 3.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Capricornia QLD 60.1 34.2 5.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Barton NSW 60.2 34.2 5.6 Labor Labor FALSE
McEwen VIC 60.6 35.1 4.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Franklin TAS 61.8 31.4 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Griffith QLD 64.6 30.1 5.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Werriwa NSW 65.6 30.5 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
McMahon NSW 67.3 29.6 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Indi VIC 4.1 68.1 27.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Robertson NSW 20.9 68.5 10.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Flynn QLD 24.8 68.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Richmond NSW 69.0 23.9 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Greenway NSW 28.1 69.1 2.9 Labor Coalition TRUE
Chisholm VIC 69.4 24.8 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Bonner QLD 26.2 69.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Solomon NT 25.1 69.8 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Dobell NSW 22.4 69.9 7.6 Other Coalition TRUE
Hasluck WA 26.4 70.2 3.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Melbourne VIC 70.4 2.6 27.0 Other Labor TRUE
Adelaide SA 70.9 23.1 6.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Dawson QLD 22.9 71.3 5.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
La Trobe VIC 23.2 71.3 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Banks NSW 21.9 73.0 5.2 Labor Coalition TRUE
Bendigo VIC 73.1 20.3 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Forde QLD 21.9 73.1 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bruce VIC 73.3 20.4 6.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Reid NSW 21.7 73.6 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Longman QLD 20.7 74.4 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Rankin QLD 74.8 20.8 4.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Newcastle NSW 74.9 18.0 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Perth WA 75.2 18.0 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Herbert QLD 18.2 75.8 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wakefield SA 76.6 17.5 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Fisher QLD 14.3 76.8 8.9 Other Coalition TRUE
Melbourne Ports VIC 76.9 16.4 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Leichhardt QLD 16.5 77.3 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Swan WA 18.6 77.5 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Casey VIC 14.4 78.5 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Throsby NSW 78.9 14.4 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Fowler NSW 79.4 16.9 3.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Chifley NSW 79.9 14.6 5.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Macquarie NSW 14.7 80.2 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Corangamite VIC 12.3 80.3 7.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Deakin VIC 13.3 80.3 6.3 Labor Coalition TRUE
Braddon TAS 14.8 80.5 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Dunkley VIC 12.3 80.6 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Fremantle WA 80.7 13.4 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Canning WA 14.8 80.8 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Makin SA 81.2 14.9 4.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Denison TAS 13.9 4.9 81.2 Other Other FALSE
Gilmore NSW 12.4 81.3 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Fadden QLD 10.0 81.4 8.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bowman QLD 13.5 81.4 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Oxley QLD 81.7 15.0 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Hinkler QLD 8.5 81.9 9.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Fairfax QLD 5.1 81.9 13.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Ryan QLD 10.1 82.2 7.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McMillan VIC 11.6 82.4 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lindsay NSW 13.7 82.4 3.9 Labor Coalition TRUE
Stirling WA 10.8 82.5 6.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Jagajaga VIC 82.6 11.6 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Wright QLD 5.6 83.0 11.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Isaacs VIC 83.3 11.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Blaxland NSW 83.3 12.7 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Bass TAS 11.8 83.5 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Ballarat VIC 83.9 10.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Cowan WA 10.3 83.9 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Sturt SA 11.0 83.9 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hunter NSW 83.9 10.9 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Batman VIC 83.9 5.7 10.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Bennelong NSW 11.9 84.2 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Sydney NSW 84.3 5.7 10.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Macarthur NSW 11.1 84.6 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Watson NSW 84.6 11.1 4.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Dickson QLD 9.8 85.0 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Charlton NSW 85.1 5.7 9.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Shortland NSW 85.2 9.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Canberra ACT 85.3 8.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Cunningham NSW 85.4 8.7 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Aston VIC 8.7 85.4 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kooyong VIC 6.6 85.5 7.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kingston SA 85.5 9.8 4.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Lalor VIC 85.7 7.2 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Berowra NSW 6.7 85.8 7.5 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lyne NSW 8.8 86.1 5.2 Other Coalition TRUE
Boothby SA 8.9 86.3 4.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hume NSW 7.3 86.3 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Corio VIC 86.4 7.3 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Flinders VIC 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cook NSW 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wentworth NSW 5.1 86.7 8.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Maribyrnong VIC 86.8 7.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Higgins VIC 6.7 86.8 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Paterson NSW 8.0 86.9 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McPherson QLD 6.8 86.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grey SA 6.8 87.0 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Gippsland VIC 6.8 87.0 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Barker SA 6.8 87.1 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Calare NSW 7.3 87.1 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Curtin WA 4.2 87.2 8.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bradfield NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grayndler NSW 87.2 5.2 7.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Mackellar NSW 5.2 87.2 7.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
North Sydney NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Goldstein VIC 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Scullin VIC 87.3 6.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Moore WA 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Holt VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hotham VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hughes NSW 8.1 87.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Forrest WA 6.6 87.7 5.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wide Bay QLD 5.9 87.7 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mallee VIC 6.8 87.7 5.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Warringah NSW 5.2 87.8 7.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Moncrieff QLD 6.9 87.9 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Calwell VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Gorton VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Fraser ACT 88.1 5.9 6.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Murray VIC 6.8 88.1 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
New England NSW 4.2 88.2 7.5 Other Coalition TRUE
Gellibrand VIC 88.3 5.2 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Menzies VIC 5.3 88.4 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cowper NSW 7.5 88.6 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mayo SA 5.3 88.7 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mitchell NSW 6.9 88.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Parkes NSW 6.9 88.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Tangney WA 6.0 88.8 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Port Adelaide SA 89.1 6.0 4.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Riverina NSW 6.9 89.1 4.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Pearce WA 5.2 89.2 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Maranoa QLD 5.3 89.4 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Farrer NSW 6.0 89.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wills VIC 89.9 3.5 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Groom QLD 6.1 90.5 3.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kennedy QLD 4.1 5.1 90.8 Other Other FALSE
Wannon VIC 4.4 91.5 4.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
O'Connor WA 3.3 93.0 3.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Durack WA 0.0 100.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE

Applying the cube law to convert the seats won prediction from the betting market to an estimate of the two-party preferred vote for Labor, we get a result of 46.16 percent for Labor.

Of note elsewhere: Simon Jackman said "the betting markets are posting prices I've never seen".

1 comment: