Saturday, August 29, 2015

Saturday betting market update

The betting market this week firmed a touch in the Coalition's direction. The Coalition is ahead (with bookmakers pricing the probability of a Coalition win between 55.0 and 57.7 per cent). But this is not a huge margin. The markets are saying that Labor has a little more than 4 chances in 10 of winning the next election.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-08-29 Betfair 1.68 2.23 57.033248
2015-08-29 CrownBet 1.65 2.25 57.692308
2015-08-29 Ladbrokes 1.70 2.10 55.263158
2015-08-29 Luxbet 1.68 2.15 56.135770
2015-08-29 Sportsbet 1.73 2.15 55.412371
2015-08-29 TABtouch 1.71 2.09 55.000000
2015-08-29 William Hill 1.72 2.10 54.973822

Links to these houses can be found in the right column, towards the bottom of the column.


Opinion polls

Yesterday, ReachTEL published its third 47-53 result this month. Dropping this result into the aggregation yielded a Coalition TPP estimate of 46.8, a slight movement for the Coalition. The Coalition has been holding steady for a couple of weeks now.


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