|House||Coalition Odds ($)||Labor Odds ($)||Coalition Win Probability (%)|
In the next table we can see the movements of the various bookmakers each day over the past week. Luxbet ended the week roughly where it started (an 86.5 per cent probability of a Coalition win), but ranged between 81 and 88 per cent. Ladbrokes and Betfair increased their probability over the week; while TABtouch and William Hill decreased theirs.
The volatility is also evident in the most recent charts.
The contrary volatility in the betting markets this week had me wondering whether the major political parties place bets with the goal of generating trend stories on social media. The markets, this far out from an election, are probably thin enough to allow strategic bets to influence market movements that last for at least a few days.
For more information on how I track the betting markets, click here.