Friday, April 1, 2016

Betfair an outlier this morning

This morning when I ran the data scraper I was so surprised by the Betfair result I ran it again, and again. Let's start with the raw data from the scraper (including the run times).

2016-04-01 05:18:53,Betfair,1.27,3.0
2016-04-01 05:20:04,Betfair,1.27,3.0
2016-04-01 05:32:10,Betfair,1.27,3.0

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-04-01 Betfair 1.27 3.0 70.26
2016-04-01 CrownBet 1.14 5.5 82.83
2016-04-01 Ladbrokes 1.20 4.5 78.95
2016-04-01 Luxbet 1.16 5.0 81.17
2016-04-01 Sportsbet 1.20 4.5 78.95
2016-04-01 TABtouch 1.21 4.3 78.04
2016-04-01 William Hill 1.20 4.5 78.95

% Fr 25-Mar Sa 26-Mar Su 27-Mar Mo 28-Mar Tu 29-Mar We 30-Mar Th 31-Mar Fr 1-Apr
Betfair 78.47 78.47 76.91 77.47 77.33 77.33 75.92 70.26
CrownBet 82.83 82.83 82.83 82.83 82.83 82.83 82.83 82.83
Ladbrokes 80.10 80.10 - 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95
Luxbet 81.17 81.17 81.17 81.17 81.17 81.17 81.17 81.17
Sportsbet 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95
TABtouch 78.04 78.04 78.04 78.04 78.04 78.04 78.04 78.04
William Hill 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95 78.95





Update

By Saturday morning, Betfair was no longer such an outlier. But today only one House gives the Coalition a greater than 80 per cent probability of winning the next election.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-04-02 Betfair 1.24 3.85 75.64
2016-04-02 CrownBet 1.20 4.50 78.95
2016-04-02 Ladbrokes 1.20 4.50 78.95
2016-04-02 Luxbet 1.16 5.00 81.17
2016-04-02 Sportsbet 1.20 4.50 78.95
2016-04-02 TABtouch 1.21 4.30 78.04
2016-04-02 William Hill 1.20 4.50 78.95


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