Thursday, May 12, 2016

Seat betting markets

I have been looking at the individual seat betting market from Sportsbet.

If all of the favourites won, then the election outcome for the House of Representatives would be:

Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team
0 78 1 2 1 68 0

The close seats (where the favourite to win the seat is on a probability of less than 60 per cent) are as follow. The values in the cells in this table are the implied win probabilities for each party expressed as percentages.

Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team
Richmond (NSW) 3.34 19.32 17.39 0.00 0.0 59.95 0.00
Hindmarsh (SA) 3.25 33.85 3.25 0.00 0.0 48.36 11.28
Solomon (NT) 3.33 34.68 3.33 0.86 0.0 57.80 0.00
Dobell (NSW) 2.61 35.54 2.61 0.00 0.0 59.23 0.00
Burt (WA) 2.68 40.45 0.00 0.00 0.0 56.88 0.00
Lyons (TAS) 5.44 41.46 3.35 0.00 0.0 49.75 0.00
Swan (WA) 3.25 42.29 5.29 0.00 0.0 49.17 0.00
Deakin (VIC) 3.27 42.50 5.67 0.00 0.0 48.57 0.00
Hasluck (WA) 3.28 42.58 4.06 0.00 0.0 50.09 0.00
Macarthur (NSW) 3.34 44.51 2.55 0.00 0.0 49.60 0.00
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.70 46.96 1.70 0.00 0.0 49.64 0.00
Corangamite (VIC) 3.32 49.37 4.11 0.00 0.0 43.20 0.00
Reid (NSW) 3.35 49.76 3.35 0.00 0.0 43.54 0.00
Page (NSW) 3.39 50.32 8.01 0.00 0.0 38.29 0.00
Robertson (NSW) 2.35 50.81 11.40 0.00 0.0 35.45 0.00
Cowan (WA) 3.40 52.98 3.40 0.00 0.0 40.22 0.00
Brisbane (QLD) 3.32 53.31 4.11 0.00 0.0 39.26 0.00
La Trobe (Vic) 3.33 54.09 4.12 0.00 0.0 38.46 0.00
Macquarie (NSW) 3.21 55.64 3.21 0.00 0.0 37.94 0.00
Lindsay (NSW) 3.39 55.73 4.19 0.00 0.0 36.69 0.00
Bonner (QLD) 3.26 56.58 3.26 0.00 0.0 36.90 0.00
Dunkley (VIC) 2.20 57.21 2.92 0.00 0.0 37.67 0.00
Gilmore (NSW) 3.34 57.83 4.13 0.00 0.0 34.70 0.00
Banks (NSW) 3.34 57.83 4.13 0.00 0.0 34.70 0.00
Forde (QLD) 3.36 58.30 3.36 0.00 0.0 34.98 0.00
New England (NSW) 3.92 58.80 3.43 29.93 0.0 3.92 0.00
Braddon (TAS) 4.10 59.44 3.31 0.00 0.0 33.15 0.00
Leichhardt (QLD) 6.95 59.54 3.21 0.00 0.0 30.31 0.00
Stirling (WA) 3.31 59.68 3.31 0.00 0.0 33.70 0.00

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