tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post4914091052520070255..comments2023-11-02T12:21:34.000+11:00Comments on Mark the Ballot: Did we have a polling fail in 2022Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-32651148744268224942022-05-22T18:49:40.328+10:002022-05-22T18:49:40.328+10:00Good questions - i have not looked at primary vote...Good questions - i have not looked at primary vote polling much in the past - but I suspect it will be very important in the future. Understanding it, and its propensity for error will be important. Mark Graphhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-38447382510309477082022-05-22T18:39:27.749+10:002022-05-22T18:39:27.749+10:00One question I have is whether the figures might b...One question I have is whether the figures might be outside the historical margin of error (MoE calculated from RMSE on historical polling errors), in addition to being outside the theoretical margin of sampling error.<br /><br />My estimate is that the historical RMSE is about 33% higher than the theoretical RMSE for 2pp (theoretical ≈ 1.5, actual ≈ 2.0) - wonder what would the individual poll graphs look like if that was used instead?Ethanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07226942488996369403noreply@blogger.com