tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-60070321159800191862024-03-08T22:33:45.595+11:00Mark the BallotPsephology by the numbersMark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.comBlogger436125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-51110981071268907362023-11-22T03:05:00.003+11:002023-11-22T04:25:36.902+11:00Morgan Poll<p><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; font-size: 17px; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Latest Roy Morgan poll is not good news for Labor. This is the second recent Morgan poll with Labor's 2pp vote share below 50%. Morgan has Labor's primary vote below 30 per cent for the first time this election cycle.</span></p><p><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; font-size: 17px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhrpFkymY3PogXnUk67sb6TxSJQ1MQEA0Kqw8dfTSJd244gc47FD1jgDIT3HtV9NCdIv5IxN9o2Z7aMgnpT9dDD8R5lbQAZjIcB3ECJQpfdmSjjaGGoTnlZD3u0uLFZn9I2InZicX2OUB4BEn1QjwLACMf8efjcw1QnRGTyQGir7Y7TlBHqEc9T7mo22SQ8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhrpFkymY3PogXnUk67sb6TxSJQ1MQEA0Kqw8dfTSJd244gc47FD1jgDIT3HtV9NCdIv5IxN9o2Z7aMgnpT9dDD8R5lbQAZjIcB3ECJQpfdmSjjaGGoTnlZD3u0uLFZn9I2InZicX2OUB4BEn1QjwLACMf8efjcw1QnRGTyQGir7Y7TlBHqEc9T7mo22SQ8=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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text-align: center;"><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; font-size: 17px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; font-size: 17px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh0DKUF5xoRJskuCrFCCPxWXu_l7NYaebSdQLk2-UoFKZ-jrbkB6g0g_ytrmi_U5hVw3OdPyKFY7Hm67JkMvZxwOx-XwL7udL9CKEFrSWOKu7VyFngyDGRXSYZnfLxm3obPdkOJUtZUEm5jDN4U66RcvjVRPqioZYUW4OONA34IxAUY_Ug-E15Wi1lJoFJq" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh0DKUF5xoRJskuCrFCCPxWXu_l7NYaebSdQLk2-UoFKZ-jrbkB6g0g_ytrmi_U5hVw3OdPyKFY7Hm67JkMvZxwOx-XwL7udL9CKEFrSWOKu7VyFngyDGRXSYZnfLxm3obPdkOJUtZUEm5jDN4U66RcvjVRPqioZYUW4OONA34IxAUY_Ug-E15Wi1lJoFJq=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></span></div><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; font-size: 17px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhwCU9O1mmZ-DVcpSb0UVTJArh-E_FEUhyG0Xqcb5kobj2aSx_MikuIT5-tRJwvJcjqwI79p3tSkvQcF8zr7OJ3jysYMGB_mhIEn8o5FFd1YlhJkJO9lQ6EvvoMZZryubwueLuhNoIgmrsMuJTkc_VnWjsSRQXm9z0fsHeLqXOY3Z6yryF6BVmmldikLe4g" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhwCU9O1mmZ-DVcpSb0UVTJArh-E_FEUhyG0Xqcb5kobj2aSx_MikuIT5-tRJwvJcjqwI79p3tSkvQcF8zr7OJ3jysYMGB_mhIEn8o5FFd1YlhJkJO9lQ6EvvoMZZryubwueLuhNoIgmrsMuJTkc_VnWjsSRQXm9z0fsHeLqXOY3Z6yryF6BVmmldikLe4g=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><p></p>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-42192235601050670622023-11-20T06:45:00.011+11:002023-11-20T19:00:25.826+11:00Updated polling charts<p>The updated localised regression chart suggests that two-party preferred voting intention for Labour continues to decline. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjDq2X7FZ49eZh7RWNIii7eZWnoMuSvqZu8gZ0JMobqYLMryMWik0Lkaqt8uiSzCYI7TcqdVDCizOlAEEUxRQWoO5L9OwHs69_cc0_jWE3DsAfA3qbYBOmJ7zzi8a4duwkGHMyQev3YwRavyg-o1HF_ARiANH9qmruiFSPzMLp3JYTpWziQA2vMvyDtQYjw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjDq2X7FZ49eZh7RWNIii7eZWnoMuSvqZu8gZ0JMobqYLMryMWik0Lkaqt8uiSzCYI7TcqdVDCizOlAEEUxRQWoO5L9OwHs69_cc0_jWE3DsAfA3qbYBOmJ7zzi8a4duwkGHMyQev3YwRavyg-o1HF_ARiANH9qmruiFSPzMLp3JYTpWziQA2vMvyDtQYjw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div>
<p>However, this decline is not as marked on the Bayesian Gaussian Random Walk (GRW) model. This model assumes that:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>how the whole population will vote on any given day is very similar to the day before (this is the Gaussian Random Walk in the model)</li><li>opinion polls provide an irregular and noisy indication of how people would vote; and</li><li>the individual pollsters have unintended methodological biases that tend to favour one party over another over time. For the purposes of the model, these house effects are assumed to cancel each other out across all pollsters, ie. they sum to zero across all of the polling houses. </li></ul>With these three factors, the model finds the most likely day-to-day pathway for population voting intention. <p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEggYhHYcd_tm34lnNyHI5Rfy7n5FBq8Ms-f1VLEBZaFsk6dltN5Q7pSjRJzpQyHX2wb7jtqtHj-LRe6SJ2fTRPilERz1tUAIijA10ArekNcjUfdZBam4vV2zQ9xgDJQ34t7LOCCHiYEhlnGRQZxIuV9mHCYq8CIOabe-4O7fxUSrFWLssxO9N1X31xTDOdr" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEggYhHYcd_tm34lnNyHI5Rfy7n5FBq8Ms-f1VLEBZaFsk6dltN5Q7pSjRJzpQyHX2wb7jtqtHj-LRe6SJ2fTRPilERz1tUAIijA10ArekNcjUfdZBam4vV2zQ9xgDJQ34t7LOCCHiYEhlnGRQZxIuV9mHCYq8CIOabe-4O7fxUSrFWLssxO9N1X31xTDOdr=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgEEaQC9XvfqlnO39eLH9RYDxM7aT7rpNU5J9zEu77cGIwQd8x5fvrgaodbYTEE7o2pfLYPPwqwL21mMbN5QkPxeiqVY_IIzJnnoHGRxJOW2fswqtqSpqUICHteaYiZYNqD0BN2cDMtMuBANMy8USzyprBbFYxgPypbPoShtdSlm7saADWI-0nkF2LNqFeF" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgEEaQC9XvfqlnO39eLH9RYDxM7aT7rpNU5J9zEu77cGIwQd8x5fvrgaodbYTEE7o2pfLYPPwqwL21mMbN5QkPxeiqVY_IIzJnnoHGRxJOW2fswqtqSpqUICHteaYiZYNqD0BN2cDMtMuBANMy8USzyprBbFYxgPypbPoShtdSlm7saADWI-0nkF2LNqFeF=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The Gaussian Process (GP) model, has a similar approach to identifying and managing house-effects as the Gaussian Random Walk, but it models voting intention using a covariance matrix, with a higher covariance for polls that are closer together in time. The covariance function I used is the <a href="https://www.pymc.io/projects/docs/en/stable/api/gp/generated/pymc.gp.cov.ExpQuad.html#pymc.gp.cov.ExpQuad" target="_blank">exponentiated quadratic kernel</a> (with a length scale of 50 - "ell" in the denominator). This model produces a similar aggregation result, although it suggests that the recent poll movement away from Labor is less intense.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiSLjRUm9DhrzRYgpb9676Dv-GTGwILRgNN4SYQVwgB8CUah7v13I2yv8ZrneS4Xqz-Vbk_FeN49IrlkdoruRPUmuIeNBOHTIPshAGQ4mprV_ESm_rZ6t_RMHPREbguyK0cC-C95c4_Eelfn1Mp502-q5dedL6XyGBQ91NS_Oyw4Di3MPVkLefTd3ZaC60V" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiSLjRUm9DhrzRYgpb9676Dv-GTGwILRgNN4SYQVwgB8CUah7v13I2yv8ZrneS4Xqz-Vbk_FeN49IrlkdoruRPUmuIeNBOHTIPshAGQ4mprV_ESm_rZ6t_RMHPREbguyK0cC-C95c4_Eelfn1Mp502-q5dedL6XyGBQ91NS_Oyw4Di3MPVkLefTd3ZaC60V=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEih-gMp3xHa-22PxQVaFCj8oBmgqmxfTokZA9DHehbVSy7KdIgnBxPpW5OnE6NlYfSBTnePJNZP-Cm8VdeF-ldnQU9nyoLpUKw_oexPDUzCaf5QeFBeT1C28XC1xH_0VfChxqba7ritLWESOYHQwptWyLMt-dl-jF3PlJF5MOfomZMcZBCxl1sSyv_RY3Do" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEih-gMp3xHa-22PxQVaFCj8oBmgqmxfTokZA9DHehbVSy7KdIgnBxPpW5OnE6NlYfSBTnePJNZP-Cm8VdeF-ldnQU9nyoLpUKw_oexPDUzCaf5QeFBeT1C28XC1xH_0VfChxqba7ritLWESOYHQwptWyLMt-dl-jF3PlJF5MOfomZMcZBCxl1sSyv_RY3Do=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />Collectively, the central tendency of these models can be seen in the following chart. The following chart also includes a left-anchored series (labeled GRWLA) which is a Gaussian Random Walk that has been left-anchored to the election result at the previous election. The house effects in the the GRWLA model do not sum to zero.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj7XI1_5sG65yu-r0m3w4rxWFoA4i4lAD7sO6dUxb8c-o8rAhXne5E7JkmeAZFHgjLDuq9z0Z0MdnF5gbHL4vGJx0j0Kbhaj03W1dCx4RZn-Lp7WlhPKWTULtBvA2J2YMEojfiJHlSf38t_3MIay59PFAzAPAS4wKxJY_unCAeqF-a934Lfbi_h55bQUmlf" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj7XI1_5sG65yu-r0m3w4rxWFoA4i4lAD7sO6dUxb8c-o8rAhXne5E7JkmeAZFHgjLDuq9z0Z0MdnF5gbHL4vGJx0j0Kbhaj03W1dCx4RZn-Lp7WlhPKWTULtBvA2J2YMEojfiJHlSf38t_3MIay59PFAzAPAS4wKxJY_unCAeqF-a934Lfbi_h55bQUmlf=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />Turning to primary votes. The most significant trend is Labor's decline. The Coalition is up on where it was six months ago (but may be in decline at the moment). The Greens may be up on where they were six months ago. The vote for others and independents also looks up.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhGO2o2yJWMRomBJQg92sIMM0EDLhD8EHOCZWHVyWY-qdkRdaW_WiqhDGtOSCVy0t4oN1UTojaHjPnLEsN51sGKsFrg_2sG4gvKFGRinsW2PEhLzgp1Hh96BjEvAnbN84pQ3e9EaRtMpLrrH4qqL8YeEUSK5VtrhvUSArlmaP_vuwwlMRlTqXjuZyMgItX7" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhGO2o2yJWMRomBJQg92sIMM0EDLhD8EHOCZWHVyWY-qdkRdaW_WiqhDGtOSCVy0t4oN1UTojaHjPnLEsN51sGKsFrg_2sG4gvKFGRinsW2PEhLzgp1Hh96BjEvAnbN84pQ3e9EaRtMpLrrH4qqL8YeEUSK5VtrhvUSArlmaP_vuwwlMRlTqXjuZyMgItX7" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDwrvZlXByk4Gg5udUFbi1BBkE00WS6O8RmBoF3wRysYreW4lalV29hnpduXO1V0SJC2eQ4sPjCeqYOe2tlV8kQevxDocFyD_VQq_vRLxrKOCuOph_wa3U_L2Rxrrs8Mr5JEq-clhTanLhHFs1pxCxksph52l5blRd3hLIaPr8TPXXmqotyEWDRpDM4POi" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDwrvZlXByk4Gg5udUFbi1BBkE00WS6O8RmBoF3wRysYreW4lalV29hnpduXO1V0SJC2eQ4sPjCeqYOe2tlV8kQevxDocFyD_VQq_vRLxrKOCuOph_wa3U_L2Rxrrs8Mr5JEq-clhTanLhHFs1pxCxksph52l5blRd3hLIaPr8TPXXmqotyEWDRpDM4POi=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj56kxbHo_9GM6sKoORLlUNcV3Xai79AAZaN9PZJzn987kIDxn2k8bpyvFdjupTery9bH90tbMzQ15_1uWnwIKOeoRkZ9cj-ycIEhHW_z4DDPT2uki_5HGPqJjHaHyW23ATKuTEtGP59aV6qMkVdcb1SGHxlmsMasSuGbWCbMJUsjHExFx-EcyNSbuFf0L0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj56kxbHo_9GM6sKoORLlUNcV3Xai79AAZaN9PZJzn987kIDxn2k8bpyvFdjupTery9bH90tbMzQ15_1uWnwIKOeoRkZ9cj-ycIEhHW_z4DDPT2uki_5HGPqJjHaHyW23ATKuTEtGP59aV6qMkVdcb1SGHxlmsMasSuGbWCbMJUsjHExFx-EcyNSbuFf0L0=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhXf5sihzYiaR1EfcHAQh8WfW2merQyluzzokM8chaxVyP3Ul7e8vRCZ7uRjsD-OnRHNQldNy34AlL6-uHC6GHX8a9UlSksb8YA_XRNOEhadx66XnWygUyiQXLp0XtEf06bg4SYgDwl8FaqL4U39XmIRAtppwFd9Fu_pfqqLmXsSOC8pOvv6gItyTfNw3_R=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgG8ZIw2NzRk2VKrPYsHbbNho9b6BccvsUWG34HJTsO8gboF7CMf4StCqgWqv_CiYvlDmqCt_PSscTpPQ1c8N8SU6Oe5Ayi24DmekSlyzyO8iiCI-4NQwnmGyslsMURPLrb700S5Kyq_xhDmrBa4k-vkSgc5Zw_Js7kmYCDP7hdBrZRsvynsUkqwwUuc1bB" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgG8ZIw2NzRk2VKrPYsHbbNho9b6BccvsUWG34HJTsO8gboF7CMf4StCqgWqv_CiYvlDmqCt_PSscTpPQ1c8N8SU6Oe5Ayi24DmekSlyzyO8iiCI-4NQwnmGyslsMURPLrb700S5Kyq_xhDmrBa4k-vkSgc5Zw_Js7kmYCDP7hdBrZRsvynsUkqwwUuc1bB=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiFGDol8tm-1gGeTMn7F0_VZxCLS89tXJN3plEbKCHvExcOyaYf1sAP40XDi1DQxp3Du3fzq772WLKVmx9URl4EmY86wP_I62D5JeIlZl49cmMjFpouGXZRXjMHTk0svon0oWHj_Qe1zT_EgpIad8BCT5pbsoeFcg-ETjgSZUE4UtdRi05iTlefVvQTbnuD=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi4ebZkv0FUquO9RXX-zJcOEt9hcH_UyajHfHuVI8gU-U0FFdhpLqoBZAjPb7Cl-kLqeM4L4mUHH6wGi7GfTKM5EPbowK58h-1UNvtNDox8VUHwkW3zyVUPkAZ2M1hOmHNL3G3fZpW--BEPX1a9yPQR8zaHyFHinwQe6A7pC9leC_jhGj9PBToxApBR3XOT" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi4ebZkv0FUquO9RXX-zJcOEt9hcH_UyajHfHuVI8gU-U0FFdhpLqoBZAjPb7Cl-kLqeM4L4mUHH6wGi7GfTKM5EPbowK58h-1UNvtNDox8VUHwkW3zyVUPkAZ2M1hOmHNL3G3fZpW--BEPX1a9yPQR8zaHyFHinwQe6A7pC9leC_jhGj9PBToxApBR3XOT=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjxPd-pKatnCp3toExPKvFd4az-hXZkn3hVXFtF9O6E-5mgRhzh9B4BvBDFdLvNoyQiCMIylSGTEE4dYhAzxwc1ODALbuvSywMTnW8GqZ4KfUB-8r7-GVeWYD_vnE8HXG5evFQsBE9HT0iZklPmq_roixNQr0RAeexVbTVT5Elr6SBRtZLU1ETjf6oUfW6H" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjxPd-pKatnCp3toExPKvFd4az-hXZkn3hVXFtF9O6E-5mgRhzh9B4BvBDFdLvNoyQiCMIylSGTEE4dYhAzxwc1ODALbuvSywMTnW8GqZ4KfUB-8r7-GVeWYD_vnE8HXG5evFQsBE9HT0iZklPmq_roixNQr0RAeexVbTVT5Elr6SBRtZLU1ETjf6oUfW6H=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgSqdjr-3UthOnQZmw95EeqV0rEZr5D9a95Rpe1ZFwtfR6mXk_jRMuNf0VQFETnLVfKE9Izm7365uF3TfrrXl8D8q4RIJVyJbTbR94j3zuYQViBE7uXwkwNZR4I_ERRzGleKMcmUHsAZS8UTIc59RggMnXvPoY2NPT7wqnrNDylsFiKaWG0homg5gwkIr8Q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgSqdjr-3UthOnQZmw95EeqV0rEZr5D9a95Rpe1ZFwtfR6mXk_jRMuNf0VQFETnLVfKE9Izm7365uF3TfrrXl8D8q4RIJVyJbTbR94j3zuYQViBE7uXwkwNZR4I_ERRzGleKMcmUHsAZS8UTIc59RggMnXvPoY2NPT7wqnrNDylsFiKaWG0homg5gwkIr8Q=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhQHEKDqP-PRGnxHd3nP3F4bMI0jPOBtmAYMMBiDpv3m-kgK0nO-9OmKfcjQo35bccAmQC4oJAJtEEybJ-4LcAi8TrVl2p6JaBCJ4FiObCfJ9u2UIdMCr-WDVhkQv85g4kU7Vp05A0f2sKVUq6znPvTt3Wk-4DxGkN3DX_O-HP-j4zyroh44tLmPJ83tqiQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhQHEKDqP-PRGnxHd3nP3F4bMI0jPOBtmAYMMBiDpv3m-kgK0nO-9OmKfcjQo35bccAmQC4oJAJtEEybJ-4LcAi8TrVl2p6JaBCJ4FiObCfJ9u2UIdMCr-WDVhkQv85g4kU7Vp05A0f2sKVUq6znPvTt3Wk-4DxGkN3DX_O-HP-j4zyroh44tLmPJ83tqiQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg5VVpwjga4gYbXSdMyCjMGUL-SBvZg-l8d0DgP8ArG0qjO8rTwP9vpkrQ6qQPx40Gl1gqRGb1H1mvd2fx5-e5vycXu8QVjWOhDAXQYwBYq4CJUJ1mIU86RNk3bNHS7P9JijHtJFLG2-qRQNL-l2a91Hg8MdnmaHE2Oqjfm24SoDfbfh-Ia3G7Ryb_5j1Nl" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg5VVpwjga4gYbXSdMyCjMGUL-SBvZg-l8d0DgP8ArG0qjO8rTwP9vpkrQ6qQPx40Gl1gqRGb1H1mvd2fx5-e5vycXu8QVjWOhDAXQYwBYq4CJUJ1mIU86RNk3bNHS7P9JijHtJFLG2-qRQNL-l2a91Hg8MdnmaHE2Oqjfm24SoDfbfh-Ia3G7Ryb_5j1Nl=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgaf3HELYxhEuXuVPAP0JDSMGXmmXtcN-4DrdoSAF87ip5Fuemwi7ypPPmoGkEVEXy4Hj7haeNws-nYZ_7G7UP7WC2GWWDmmcsgxnBLXXZZV5xZf10x-E1KAQp_7idmfX5-ku5SDuwftUy1PmR_2sBb4RhQXmQEYTkUsXpwvgHTcZYfquzJbBj2Mrs-G9BY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgaf3HELYxhEuXuVPAP0JDSMGXmmXtcN-4DrdoSAF87ip5Fuemwi7ypPPmoGkEVEXy4Hj7haeNws-nYZ_7G7UP7WC2GWWDmmcsgxnBLXXZZV5xZf10x-E1KAQp_7idmfX5-ku5SDuwftUy1PmR_2sBb4RhQXmQEYTkUsXpwvgHTcZYfquzJbBj2Mrs-G9BY=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The data for these charts is sourced from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Australian_federal_election" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>. Before analysis, the polling data is treated to ensure that:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>undecided respondents are proportionately allocated where necessary, and </li><li>the two-party preferred and primary votes are normalised to sum to 100 per cent exactly. </li></ul>The notebooks that produced these charts are available on my <a href="https://github.com/bpalmer4/Australian-Federal-Election-2025/tree/main/notebooks" target="_blank">github site</a>.</div><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-38019524151400323472023-11-13T09:59:00.004+11:002023-11-13T10:45:01.252+11:00Resolve strategic 57/43<p>The latest <a href="https://resolvestrategic.com/" target="_blank">Resolve Strategic</a> <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-cut-support-for-labor-as-cost-of-living-concerns-mount-20231109-p5eius.html" target="_blank">poll</a> from 5 November has Labor with a two party preferred vote of 57 and the Coalition on 43. </p><p>On my models, Resolve Strategic is around four percentage points more favourable to Labor than the average for all pollsters across the time-series of opinion polls. The first model is the Gaussian Random Walk [GRW] with house effects that sum to zero. [The "Normal" in the header is because I used a Normal likelihood distribution for fitting the underlying random walk to the polling observations. The "fixed" refers to the fact I used selected fixed value priors rather than let the model settle these.]</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhglzXqjXj5H1f_a1rACxXYkJNK3r4hidCiwWqLz5RXc_0qPNikMqSFZ9JrlcBvNA4PB2T3vfg8Zt26GQxWjKCtZB_MIrPVcMtSa5qT_XhvNqimZYsz9CmlQ9ZTV37KnzrvQzAw7ec1eqg1DrANH3wCE9IB_eYIJNjtNxNs4Z81NWZf2LI-g3V_8sQfEUt" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhglzXqjXj5H1f_a1rACxXYkJNK3r4hidCiwWqLz5RXc_0qPNikMqSFZ9JrlcBvNA4PB2T3vfg8Zt26GQxWjKCtZB_MIrPVcMtSa5qT_XhvNqimZYsz9CmlQ9ZTV37KnzrvQzAw7ec1eqg1DrANH3wCE9IB_eYIJNjtNxNs4Z81NWZf2LI-g3V_8sQfEUt=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEioycKyWklPc-x3is6QqVEV_CuDHdZ8-nIXVkB3sY7PM2EY_cvYL7FF88pH5gC0bdxuXr16_GqcI9DbGA77ui0TcneuJg4CyaDrXpMOR486J_QTt0Y20Nj3uii-dJITJFGQNHQ04LqPAWm6S6zTu67T8O3ZJFE2pJQYK7K-uEfG24RymMp4ex5ohYpmMnYY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEioycKyWklPc-x3is6QqVEV_CuDHdZ8-nIXVkB3sY7PM2EY_cvYL7FF88pH5gC0bdxuXr16_GqcI9DbGA77ui0TcneuJg4CyaDrXpMOR486J_QTt0Y20Nj3uii-dJITJFGQNHQ04LqPAWm6S6zTu67T8O3ZJFE2pJQYK7K-uEfG24RymMp4ex5ohYpmMnYY=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>The second model is a Gaussian Process [GP], again with House effects that sum to zero. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEihGL_FZdL0xCZdWkRAQvoIfVtnnV0I3juUKeL-yNghzRchh1LSxluveYisK6PCVmsu8-RSamvr-UNxvmTWWEA8lztEnrWWOXR3mfB38CS0XifrNyO1Jq8VD2y2HdSA5bmoL0d12aKUudi218lMB0TABhQPirjxqbB7hhcA5s-hHA0b5Wypccbv_V1lBwqX" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEihGL_FZdL0xCZdWkRAQvoIfVtnnV0I3juUKeL-yNghzRchh1LSxluveYisK6PCVmsu8-RSamvr-UNxvmTWWEA8lztEnrWWOXR3mfB38CS0XifrNyO1Jq8VD2y2HdSA5bmoL0d12aKUudi218lMB0TABhQPirjxqbB7hhcA5s-hHA0b5Wypccbv_V1lBwqX=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEimZJdrVxerQc1OWWwP4Kl74-0Fp1DHxJY-sHOvtyd_K1hSZhSSRYfLKQA0BJAoH1H1OV7o9jqEFjJuS5mxgd4tVRukcZnsFXTbFMqLyZL490bRddRFrtyQSu814uXooV-rzAr5Q0mGSUHTUsp5Vasf4AXMO_EHDqdI47FO4xF_8XtA2-gm-3WYtW50EPbv" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEimZJdrVxerQc1OWWwP4Kl74-0Fp1DHxJY-sHOvtyd_K1hSZhSSRYfLKQA0BJAoH1H1OV7o9jqEFjJuS5mxgd4tVRukcZnsFXTbFMqLyZL490bRddRFrtyQSu814uXooV-rzAr5Q0mGSUHTUsp5Vasf4AXMO_EHDqdI47FO4xF_8XtA2-gm-3WYtW50EPbv=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-66606983408831329532023-11-13T09:24:00.006+11:002023-11-13T09:41:49.725+11:00Updated localised regression charts<p>I have moved the localised regressions out to 150-days. This produces a smoother line. However, there are no adjustments for house effects. The charts are as follows.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj-LBQQwi5arJY8I5HdwEV5KQaMWv-QnN3Y8liVtOSBSsGCKsXZ9A72pB__RXngd9zkSDCdy6oPWOHT3AE2dVrpxVPz9CoaDwslMFYsU2J7hB3mUS1_7R2Pl3U7kMXVO0krMcriCb8LMH4bX_7uQeJlSiPDo3dFE7arNpbNfjJ75pDeSoxUY9XdR3hQwzcK" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj-LBQQwi5arJY8I5HdwEV5KQaMWv-QnN3Y8liVtOSBSsGCKsXZ9A72pB__RXngd9zkSDCdy6oPWOHT3AE2dVrpxVPz9CoaDwslMFYsU2J7hB3mUS1_7R2Pl3U7kMXVO0krMcriCb8LMH4bX_7uQeJlSiPDo3dFE7arNpbNfjJ75pDeSoxUY9XdR3hQwzcK=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjh3VJduiOm1DtO1WWfuBlIrM6_SD6Mah9pqdrHdP0qWw85ZNE0XUMjhuXAV5ahyzqw1c6q6beWEC9Eqc430_4watUMckCdTg16WACrbEeNoDCUOt4ih8tVpg8m0uDBFPViZpBP_G3GVzEvWr1W_KeFJAck2gsZH854craxzsMX_m8JixcoEQVM1SR72RnG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjh3VJduiOm1DtO1WWfuBlIrM6_SD6Mah9pqdrHdP0qWw85ZNE0XUMjhuXAV5ahyzqw1c6q6beWEC9Eqc430_4watUMckCdTg16WACrbEeNoDCUOt4ih8tVpg8m0uDBFPViZpBP_G3GVzEvWr1W_KeFJAck2gsZH854craxzsMX_m8JixcoEQVM1SR72RnG=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxqFB7JtjuooDXe28kQ0Cw8hgTZA3OTDaGgDxtxmu5kSE9AVizfgE7xy8Nisrms7xpPTnCSJe4ydsbc7fvMxUQVhKLHRr0BulQMz-YhtF-I_RdD8FTyKQo2GbG0GF1VodRgS9T1QHF4rpHnJ0_qfdfCqHrrU_DMblC-Tq8uqWoZEcFRANO3VsCuUW-uga7" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxqFB7JtjuooDXe28kQ0Cw8hgTZA3OTDaGgDxtxmu5kSE9AVizfgE7xy8Nisrms7xpPTnCSJe4ydsbc7fvMxUQVhKLHRr0BulQMz-YhtF-I_RdD8FTyKQo2GbG0GF1VodRgS9T1QHF4rpHnJ0_qfdfCqHrrU_DMblC-Tq8uqWoZEcFRANO3VsCuUW-uga7=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgsjIHOq10Tf0yNlrl9wnvJM4cK6wQMnfXKfp9et-3WWElL6dS7vherTggVYY5R0MJ3kLVPg_JSBsktfHkxMTzLeVnlQpS8HJYK61wP4ZBZ1nyGYz3MWQ_bC9lnzAtDVUVDo77M3bSeuFBDAptb8r49iuQCG2px9ckNnvCdfCMd_am3Uzx-oMDMdTlJ-N0e" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgsjIHOq10Tf0yNlrl9wnvJM4cK6wQMnfXKfp9et-3WWElL6dS7vherTggVYY5R0MJ3kLVPg_JSBsktfHkxMTzLeVnlQpS8HJYK61wP4ZBZ1nyGYz3MWQ_bC9lnzAtDVUVDo77M3bSeuFBDAptb8r49iuQCG2px9ckNnvCdfCMd_am3Uzx-oMDMdTlJ-N0e=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxXl5mM5ZMwMAoqAKxYXJjb4U872R_MpGRCX5fy1pOlNBP0zC1MCFf9nBD0QlzAmhNGi9O0k8YGH6wyw_VUrzAFNgNJTQZl5R88E6FQxQCNLEA7ixXm2pqdtp-wc3B5303wS1iVg0EgjG-jfSs73fUJ7ycZc6W17WSrGDI6u2fb_8G2MwzK9-0d3DGN9kp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxXl5mM5ZMwMAoqAKxYXJjb4U872R_MpGRCX5fy1pOlNBP0zC1MCFf9nBD0QlzAmhNGi9O0k8YGH6wyw_VUrzAFNgNJTQZl5R88E6FQxQCNLEA7ixXm2pqdtp-wc3B5303wS1iVg0EgjG-jfSs73fUJ7ycZc6W17WSrGDI6u2fb_8G2MwzK9-0d3DGN9kp=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgwOeYYh2tKXjY6B8dnlZUAFeNR81yrtlo0whBP8GzR_9Y3AOJJh4ZPlYAioY41T_iQj_kfG8BMSM71c73K4rZNhFi9ST-qUXzx7Ej-VCO8xarYxblWcLzyaLABlkqn_zh2xSi1sxQoyJ7q9duNj2Du0CTDA_23YP2Q7L-Pk6tkF1A_I7R0uDkwb6yE61NO" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgwOeYYh2tKXjY6B8dnlZUAFeNR81yrtlo0whBP8GzR_9Y3AOJJh4ZPlYAioY41T_iQj_kfG8BMSM71c73K4rZNhFi9ST-qUXzx7Ej-VCO8xarYxblWcLzyaLABlkqn_zh2xSi1sxQoyJ7q9duNj2Du0CTDA_23YP2Q7L-Pk6tkF1A_I7R0uDkwb6yE61NO=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjhjLejdBKu64gVRrqJZW5mZ39sjsT42SnFOVzT5q9r59x8vUcq45yv7xNa37SwfVIWFq-ukh_aaSM7cxhvKp3vO7Z2Kix0ULKMX6vVT1X41MaISfR7TORer1hu1TTcSYnYBf2Vyd6EwIxPesiIeJunvHkWvg_rzPpreyYNX45DBDhZdFIOxnXPt7865GrK" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjhjLejdBKu64gVRrqJZW5mZ39sjsT42SnFOVzT5q9r59x8vUcq45yv7xNa37SwfVIWFq-ukh_aaSM7cxhvKp3vO7Z2Kix0ULKMX6vVT1X41MaISfR7TORer1hu1TTcSYnYBf2Vyd6EwIxPesiIeJunvHkWvg_rzPpreyYNX45DBDhZdFIOxnXPt7865GrK=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgMZCo7erPzQ-s1SsmzaEmVr9OODuL5kzU-3t-duvG9HWnn2ePEetNi7UZAdOgfov5hU0d3z6v6dOW4LOC9OqgRl7SCyKWDFm3PUaUEBfuLgs4zIEt9Cz9G_vRyWme6dbesxT-U4fhuK65i3HIQ8TmfWzqWOqgUe4rJci1Rs30ltg4sHHKJECw4l_vQAcS3" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgMZCo7erPzQ-s1SsmzaEmVr9OODuL5kzU-3t-duvG9HWnn2ePEetNi7UZAdOgfov5hU0d3z6v6dOW4LOC9OqgRl7SCyKWDFm3PUaUEBfuLgs4zIEt9Cz9G_vRyWme6dbesxT-U4fhuK65i3HIQ8TmfWzqWOqgUe4rJci1Rs30ltg4sHHKJECw4l_vQAcS3=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-8693368365339803292023-11-05T23:08:00.007+11:002023-11-06T12:16:04.807+11:00A Gaussian process latent variable model for smoothing opinion polls<p>There are two main reasons I have been using Bayesian methods for polling analysis. First, smoothing, so that I can discern the voting intention signal through the fog of noisy and sometimes contradictory opinion polling. Second, I use these methods to detect “house effects”, the tendency of pollsters to systemically (and I assume unintentionally) to favour one political party or the other.</p><p>My primary model was built around the notion of a Gaussian Random Walk. This model imagines a hidden daily walk of population voting intention, which only changes a very small amount from day to day. This voting intention is captured imperfectly by opinion polls from time-to-time. The outputs of this model are familiar. We can see the most likely estimate of the population voting intention, as well as the house effects of each pollster. We can either anchor the model to the actual vote at the last election or assume that pollsters are collectively unbiased (ie. collectively the house effects sum to zero).</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgwq5Z6MEzWrIb1it0l6LNTOzMsC4B5_G_RCHFD8U5jrxCViBSXJhR5nCy7vc8KvT3J5dODgHtwwJk2QiP1Um59YqMIzT4s2s2IRo72_rx-LVjhk4HcBcjYCLYfQNS4pPKsDWkWH_6y6blao0W_Nv09rCMEWteWuOIb31-Tw2ikgCE65kXd1oxJ5xxOc9xY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgwq5Z6MEzWrIb1it0l6LNTOzMsC4B5_G_RCHFD8U5jrxCViBSXJhR5nCy7vc8KvT3J5dODgHtwwJk2QiP1Um59YqMIzT4s2s2IRo72_rx-LVjhk4HcBcjYCLYfQNS4pPKsDWkWH_6y6blao0W_Nv09rCMEWteWuOIb31-Tw2ikgCE65kXd1oxJ5xxOc9xY=w640-h320" width="640" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6xHDObC6cgtXq1wgaKeAAAD5DstrQ_ubyCO_nLGYFt5owGYHPpEeKAFJ6D0JLk1JR4_tzRwvT4a1I9yCBvytNVY9fSmV-yamVSVrSgiX5cW6-5BG6AoDYfsC9azJQSLkXsyjW4mN1nwKgY6V9bP6V2H8AWwb1qRUdXJfKMvRmz0mcxoy5KJb9nyUc-Eqi" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6xHDObC6cgtXq1wgaKeAAAD5DstrQ_ubyCO_nLGYFt5owGYHPpEeKAFJ6D0JLk1JR4_tzRwvT4a1I9yCBvytNVY9fSmV-yamVSVrSgiX5cW6-5BG6AoDYfsC9azJQSLkXsyjW4mN1nwKgY6V9bP6V2H8AWwb1qRUdXJfKMvRmz0mcxoy5KJb9nyUc-Eqi=w640-h320" width="640" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi5emU1aYV5uRmrFRQMS6aAIirJ-JAc02xgiDYMOaulCk_kyB6kqDK6_ii0F0j_gk2To-_D25cLWXzz5A6MrAknVE5qQpMveyPa1_7SgbD3RZhywXD-MX5eFpwSS4X4zyndewqbGQtB3bDTCvm3HeuohMRCd7IOpKveBv1BnuYp-szhJJmNx1_xm88se0OL" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi5emU1aYV5uRmrFRQMS6aAIirJ-JAc02xgiDYMOaulCk_kyB6kqDK6_ii0F0j_gk2To-_D25cLWXzz5A6MrAknVE5qQpMveyPa1_7SgbD3RZhywXD-MX5eFpwSS4X4zyndewqbGQtB3bDTCvm3HeuohMRCd7IOpKveBv1BnuYp-szhJJmNx1_xm88se0OL=w640-h320" width="640" /><br /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5e0Q-P1xXl214RKkLs-B1bVoP5KzHYMqWaZ5X9RYobopEk-8qXcqS8-N8nnzXHN1x12k2iUBO1G4byjJp0nzqF2-Lt0SIM1Inj_oG7DrTRqEuTyrbVl2RcNM8oZ--b_g72Dh_zvSpmHFOL1ppB3LIfJBxuv-Oh-HVRXiEgEOCw1Q-nvo83CnwBAB-syp_" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5e0Q-P1xXl214RKkLs-B1bVoP5KzHYMqWaZ5X9RYobopEk-8qXcqS8-N8nnzXHN1x12k2iUBO1G4byjJp0nzqF2-Lt0SIM1Inj_oG7DrTRqEuTyrbVl2RcNM8oZ--b_g72Dh_zvSpmHFOL1ppB3LIfJBxuv-Oh-HVRXiEgEOCw1Q-nvo83CnwBAB-syp_=w640-h320" width="640" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgPLDv9czgJ_Zi4dYk_GPf8X5M-izNNpcVQvggaOBvjdrHO9V3-hie8a1KxdH5s51I1IB5FZaO5T75PI8cJaD106qpd2jfHPyUwC9uhv2OdKthxzs6-xVExKhqaN3WcVCRYzuLFV5PQXsuxryrP9JeF54FhMB6OEbzYqvDs2-zFS4HiPsFRC-870lsB_GEm" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgPLDv9czgJ_Zi4dYk_GPf8X5M-izNNpcVQvggaOBvjdrHO9V3-hie8a1KxdH5s51I1IB5FZaO5T75PI8cJaD106qpd2jfHPyUwC9uhv2OdKthxzs6-xVExKhqaN3WcVCRYzuLFV5PQXsuxryrP9JeF54FhMB6OEbzYqvDs2-zFS4HiPsFRC-870lsB_GEm=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>A quick aside: You will notice in the above voting-intention charts that I have plotted in the background a random selection of 100 of the 10,000 gaussian random walks I drew on in the Bayesian analysis process.</p><p>More recently, I have noticed that a few data scientists are using <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaussian_process" target="_blank">Gaussian Processes</a> to smooth noisy time series data. So, I thought I would give it a go. </p><p>A Gaussian Process approach assumes that the data-points that are taken closer together should be more similar than the data-points that are further apart in time. This is expressed in the model using a function (called a kernel) that quantifies how similar data-points that are closer together should be, and a square covariance matrix that captures the degree of similarity between all the data-points one to another using this function. Rather than model voting intention on every day, this approach only models voting intention on polling days. The kernel function I have used is the Exponentiated Quadratic kernel. Diagrammatically, the model is as follows. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjy9J3YJ37Ee2F1lNpiA3T9sAyZ1VZbQwFKjZbMiDQTqQXnDeiwZ2Kf7opEz4J7VH_DAYvFa26gdfAM0lZxpC9ksXcMIP165tAYMjVad-y3oeedzV5YTHMzKyeKqjeP1ckFLW9vxTKwV50nMZhGacI6c3H-sNP5CZd4bnp8vkIlFJPUWHV7nf2meSTqWiIt" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="513" data-original-width="752" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjy9J3YJ37Ee2F1lNpiA3T9sAyZ1VZbQwFKjZbMiDQTqQXnDeiwZ2Kf7opEz4J7VH_DAYvFa26gdfAM0lZxpC9ksXcMIP165tAYMjVad-y3oeedzV5YTHMzKyeKqjeP1ckFLW9vxTKwV50nMZhGacI6c3H-sNP5CZd4bnp8vkIlFJPUWHV7nf2meSTqWiIt=w640-h436" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Priors for the model affect how much smoothing will be applied. With a length_scale around 20, the model produces output that is quite like the Gaussian Random Walk above. </div><div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNnVZA03VbqcjeRDtbJUmdFnkmns7AgKcsBx85Xnai5BMClzeHbKbC3kd0zCD3h3uV2ivmNe9OhXj8MY7E2zPW0fkpx5sC63Ulx38a1WLOn1UhFtpNEotmw1-Wg5VgKZI0M9UQz0QlPizJ0inq10UJW9YDeJYwtxeAjXfq0VNyCGGTtDnsFD_vTyuMcGcz" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNnVZA03VbqcjeRDtbJUmdFnkmns7AgKcsBx85Xnai5BMClzeHbKbC3kd0zCD3h3uV2ivmNe9OhXj8MY7E2zPW0fkpx5sC63Ulx38a1WLOn1UhFtpNEotmw1-Wg5VgKZI0M9UQz0QlPizJ0inq10UJW9YDeJYwtxeAjXfq0VNyCGGTtDnsFD_vTyuMcGcz=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgOSCYiwE_7Vq6gIj-wURGuarbjBLobRTZaO1WuTuiswX8FwP9LAvnrid8o4IkQlb6_kHNho8qXbdH8XfzxRYFrx04prZj-08FoHHNtnf7EoTn1UyT6psQk0MaOm0GXkDBd0cUAA6cUlO1GQ6qJlg5A5fqt0fJRq3UI_fQVQ8oYOUW7A3Yx3t3ojUDhOhVE" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgOSCYiwE_7Vq6gIj-wURGuarbjBLobRTZaO1WuTuiswX8FwP9LAvnrid8o4IkQlb6_kHNho8qXbdH8XfzxRYFrx04prZj-08FoHHNtnf7EoTn1UyT6psQk0MaOm0GXkDBd0cUAA6cUlO1GQ6qJlg5A5fqt0fJRq3UI_fQVQ8oYOUW7A3Yx3t3ojUDhOhVE=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>I am a little intrigued by the small differences between these last two charts and the first two charts above. Because these are still under development, it is entirely possible that I have made an error somewhere. Nonetheless, a possible explanation for some of the small differences might be the tendency for the GP with certain kernels to revert to the mean. This might explain the slightly higher overall level, and the up-tick at the right end of the series. The GRW does not have a mean-reversion bias. </p><p>For the moment, I will prefer the results of the GRW over the new GP approach. However, I will continue to test, develop, and explore the GP model. </p><p>The primary vote charts follow for completeness.</p><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjbJXUKusEQXha1eqKUjc3I0V322anR0TVT15PaWbFz-GLi9rlTBsU8ZYbl1JGTMjrK9xb0i3thq4OxtNf1PIDwDdkb_VqSEBx1Vyt2cSY9XEik7xwh-H5-rm9hM39p-OBkWvE_ZnB0vgH6Nl08M0A71GZLe1nDDD4RA1VzXCqQ7g1BusMOXw-j8MWkIcOD" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjbJXUKusEQXha1eqKUjc3I0V322anR0TVT15PaWbFz-GLi9rlTBsU8ZYbl1JGTMjrK9xb0i3thq4OxtNf1PIDwDdkb_VqSEBx1Vyt2cSY9XEik7xwh-H5-rm9hM39p-OBkWvE_ZnB0vgH6Nl08M0A71GZLe1nDDD4RA1VzXCqQ7g1BusMOXw-j8MWkIcOD=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMOJG8y1z9pH_8-cCFBwLp7vYtQqUCHwUFUALNBE2iHxTaNz17OR21WPq2bFSxN9leL0sSOUURQL7Z1che109VherRM1IQJ68GGDpjU44hVrb1Yk7wqYv1FvdEoAlkct3JyBRVeHkZ720jsUSHy5MLWXaS3aM5-0OOGm274eh9CKhgs5P9HNfJtgwnC-Wa" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMOJG8y1z9pH_8-cCFBwLp7vYtQqUCHwUFUALNBE2iHxTaNz17OR21WPq2bFSxN9leL0sSOUURQL7Z1che109VherRM1IQJ68GGDpjU44hVrb1Yk7wqYv1FvdEoAlkct3JyBRVeHkZ720jsUSHy5MLWXaS3aM5-0OOGm274eh9CKhgs5P9HNfJtgwnC-Wa=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5dmwG51o0jNwKPjdUS96U2W94D-rA_Nub3nYi0E92q6yYYu46AMLOeWPLv7SrbwZW4mZRW6uG-Wout7jiWTcPf7ORO-MS-fVpGgAMU8WH3XU9Jkl6gAhrELdc7S0tlNf3eJBUbvuZJ2IfbavU46VbakjrjaXytymIZzVQ_esd_5r8NzAaJLgMfcMti0EX" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5dmwG51o0jNwKPjdUS96U2W94D-rA_Nub3nYi0E92q6yYYu46AMLOeWPLv7SrbwZW4mZRW6uG-Wout7jiWTcPf7ORO-MS-fVpGgAMU8WH3XU9Jkl6gAhrELdc7S0tlNf3eJBUbvuZJ2IfbavU46VbakjrjaXytymIZzVQ_esd_5r8NzAaJLgMfcMti0EX=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg4qQstWL-QWkS_m2tsMsVRIp9L6RlqpHFM2eWc5R4kIlaV9MpZqcJwlU74MmcVeFpp4yxyfQSvBYxpSYH7CHJgtJAUh2AAuUMRM_JpvyZKmMaakxjtlrI1G1jEQZ9n4vuc6nLuHwE4_zx_z3Tp668HSu1GoA89I3fTinS5EHa061X5S_7nVQAg_uUyd-jW" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg4qQstWL-QWkS_m2tsMsVRIp9L6RlqpHFM2eWc5R4kIlaV9MpZqcJwlU74MmcVeFpp4yxyfQSvBYxpSYH7CHJgtJAUh2AAuUMRM_JpvyZKmMaakxjtlrI1G1jEQZ9n4vuc6nLuHwE4_zx_z3Tp668HSu1GoA89I3fTinS5EHa061X5S_7nVQAg_uUyd-jW=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEickEinIFJsaZs8hTdJ94svU6SyvxL9tINfo42hcUmxnrH0ubICF1Ei5mO3U3GVC6eHpjYYFqbYMK4RPyvBNuu0bRi1tbVQ36usOMfxLtCPfBmfWt00MiCIoSPRJazLG30MDDL8t17KSq6kWoFRAmfZtufvxw5wS4w84ey3SJAmsnNsfF50_7LMn569VSDP" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEickEinIFJsaZs8hTdJ94svU6SyvxL9tINfo42hcUmxnrH0ubICF1Ei5mO3U3GVC6eHpjYYFqbYMK4RPyvBNuu0bRi1tbVQ36usOMfxLtCPfBmfWt00MiCIoSPRJazLG30MDDL8t17KSq6kWoFRAmfZtufvxw5wS4w84ey3SJAmsnNsfF50_7LMn569VSDP=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhyu0c-opjRnewyMvbtbxSOEMzlqIrZPYHwpbbO54LrDHLYf3W9iPM726Dq0uLHLFRJZ6m_opofpQv3nW3FIn8hqYCu-wxdzQaaMtO6hpS1n40VNrm7im0bnJTfQMl7kV3rx48zj-dtfA3DK0nff6ytQ7F5WgN2iPk8M1twnTxdayrfsMQwdn2E6rvewt06" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhyu0c-opjRnewyMvbtbxSOEMzlqIrZPYHwpbbO54LrDHLYf3W9iPM726Dq0uLHLFRJZ6m_opofpQv3nW3FIn8hqYCu-wxdzQaaMtO6hpS1n40VNrm7im0bnJTfQMl7kV3rx48zj-dtfA3DK0nff6ytQ7F5WgN2iPk8M1twnTxdayrfsMQwdn2E6rvewt06=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi1VxaE1iSSVUqqDV4FtmONXfz6YI47fmbzrKMQvJ1mtoQx79aGHDPsM2BM4xnCZN3XfyzIKFz3-lRiD4OsG96ZuszQZYyA9gLhBl6ntiZKllWgaYylUgKc9X0-i5q-2FmZmetSAWmhApz0-uOgmwSkgEPjyc8dZaA9FE5r7YHO__ZYQoZx-QBqS-uzP0nw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi1VxaE1iSSVUqqDV4FtmONXfz6YI47fmbzrKMQvJ1mtoQx79aGHDPsM2BM4xnCZN3XfyzIKFz3-lRiD4OsG96ZuszQZYyA9gLhBl6ntiZKllWgaYylUgKc9X0-i5q-2FmZmetSAWmhApz0-uOgmwSkgEPjyc8dZaA9FE5r7YHO__ZYQoZx-QBqS-uzP0nw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhrytLcIF8Xt4S2HnwVme-17FK3lonZKOynNnmvOwEfeT4UBcngKhF_9_ZLA2Z_rdHraqx9vZU1Z54Wh1Pd7L3J8ot3WJoTtkk0ZY_ePZCuhdOawSx_kWBkNIqlKKluQInanV0q4CFjkD4n2fbhMgOlZ1YHTktmhLuIdVX_vdmAsvSARAgKMn1INg2wwHF6" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhrytLcIF8Xt4S2HnwVme-17FK3lonZKOynNnmvOwEfeT4UBcngKhF_9_ZLA2Z_rdHraqx9vZU1Z54Wh1Pd7L3J8ot3WJoTtkk0ZY_ePZCuhdOawSx_kWBkNIqlKKluQInanV0q4CFjkD4n2fbhMgOlZ1YHTktmhLuIdVX_vdmAsvSARAgKMn1INg2wwHF6=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>For those who are particularly interested, the core code for the model follows. For the complete code, you can check out my <a href="https://github.com/bpalmer4/Australian-Federal-Election-2025/tree/main/notebooks" target="_blank">GitHub site.</a></p><pre style="background-color: lightyellow; border: 1px dashed rgb(153, 153, 153); line-height: 14px; overflow: auto; padding: 5px; width: 653px;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: andale mono, lucida console, monaco, fixed, monospace;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">def house_effects_model(inputs: dict[str, Any], model: pm.Model) -> pt.TensorVariable:
"""The house effects model."""
with model:
house_effect_sigma = 5.0
house_effects = pm.ZeroSumNormal(
"house_effects", sigma=house_effect_sigma, shape=inputs["n_firms"]
)
return house_effects
def gp_prior(
inputs: dict[str, Any],
model: pm.Model,
length_scale: Optional[float] = None,
eta: Optional[float] = None,
) -> pt.TensorVariable:
"""Construct the Gaussian Process (GP) latent variable model prior.
The prior reflects voting intention on specific polling days.
Note: Reasonably smooth looking plots only emerge with a lenjth_scale
greater than (say) 15. Divergences occur when eta resolves as being
close to zero, (which is obvious when you think about it, but also
harder to avoid with series that are fairly flat). To address
these sampling issues, we give the gamma distribution a higher alpha,
as the mean of the gamma distribution is a/b. And we truncate eta to
well avoid zero (noting eta is squared before being multiplied by the
covariance matrix).
Also note: for quick test runs, length_scale and eta can be fixed
to (say) 20 and 1 respectively. With both specified, the model runs
in around 1.4 seconds. With one or both unspecified, it takes about
7 minutes per run."""
with model:
if length_scale is None:
gamma_hint = {"alpha": 20, "beta": 1} # ideally a=20, b=1
length_scale = pm.Gamma("length_scale", **gamma_hint)
if eta is None:
eta = pm.TruncatedNormal("eta", mu=1, sigma=5, lower=0.5, upper=20)
cov = eta**2 * pm.gp.cov.ExpQuad(1, length_scale)
gp = pm.gp.Latent(cov_func=cov)
gauss_prior = gp.prior("gauss_prior", X=inputs["poll_day_c_"])
return gauss_prior
def gp_likelihood(
inputs: dict[str, Any],
model: pm.Model,
gauss_prior: pt.TensorVariable,
house_effects: pt.TensorVariable,
) -> None:
"""Observational model (likelihood) - Gaussian Process model."""
with model:
# Normal observational model
pm.Normal(
"observed_polls",
mu=gauss_prior + house_effects[inputs["poll_firm"]],
sigma=inputs["measurement_error_sd"],
observed=inputs["zero_centered_y"],
)
def gp_model(inputs: dict[str, Any], **kwargs) -> pm.Model:
"""PyMC model for pooling/aggregating voter opinion polls,
using a Gaussian Process (GP). Note: kwargs allows one to pass
length_scale and eta to gp_prior()."""
model = pm.Model()
gauss_prior = gp_prior(inputs, model, **kwargs)
house_effects = house_effects_model(inputs, model)
gp_likelihood(inputs, model, gauss_prior, house_effects)
return model</span></span><span style="color: #666666; font-size: 14.52px;">
</span></pre></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: andale mono, lucida console, monaco, fixed, monospace;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><b>Further reading:</b></div></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaussian_process" target="_blank">Gaussian process (Wikipedia)</a></li><li><a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.05497.pdf" target="_blank">An introduction to Gaussian process models</a></li><li><a href="https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~duvenaud/cookbook/" target="_blank">The Kernel Cookbook: Advice on Covariance functions</a></li><li><a href="https://mc-stan.org/docs/stan-users-guide/gaussian-processes.html" target="_blank">Gaussian processes - Stan user guide</a></li></ul></div>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-54510010256081494642023-10-30T13:42:00.002+11:002023-10-31T09:26:51.497+11:00Are the polls biased?<p>I have coded <a href="https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2023/10/poll-aggregation.html" target="_blank">Bayesian aggregations of the polls for the 2025 Federal election</a>. A key assumption in that aggregation model is that the polls are on average unbiased. While an individual pollsters may have a house effect, collectively I have assumed these house effects sum to zero. </p><p>Another way of looking at the polls is to anchor the model for daily voting intention to the result at the previous election. Under this approach, I assume that there is a collective polling error, and the model allows us to determine the size of that polling error. The model is as follows:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgrdYcyWH334KloUqcHB1iwmRNj1AV_326KHTvBEvEf5mF3uswqjitbp2tYg8sGQiMZfttbsnQTA5-yPwhvY55l4F5g8zjSUyG66SxZtM8zWOQz82-6SodF6qzdCQL5ZhjwMJKPr2bZ6Ft7o-a755TnPWVYb0atjTtEdGwvnQDBh5IilrHWLhx2iLtiUZTT" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="524" data-original-width="890" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgrdYcyWH334KloUqcHB1iwmRNj1AV_326KHTvBEvEf5mF3uswqjitbp2tYg8sGQiMZfttbsnQTA5-yPwhvY55l4F5g8zjSUyG66SxZtM8zWOQz82-6SodF6qzdCQL5ZhjwMJKPr2bZ6Ft7o-a755TnPWVYb0atjTtEdGwvnQDBh5IilrHWLhx2iLtiUZTT=w640-h376" width="640" /></a></div><br />The results for the two party preferred ALP voting intention are as follows.<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhzem-A3rymLXucgbNIcHzjdZsGZmQfGRtAsGuQKsS4S28yTy15QJtNfoUWjMgtM88zV4P4sJsMmq07CLGPeNk3AL3wRcQMLseGWZkes-ofousPQE0D9thcUWv7aGoFQQVmp0UmLfdvFya2hqpNgfH9DpjN6rB7ZcM1fq5ywo2ogZBmbCE50-U5OryZL5TB" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhzem-A3rymLXucgbNIcHzjdZsGZmQfGRtAsGuQKsS4S28yTy15QJtNfoUWjMgtM88zV4P4sJsMmq07CLGPeNk3AL3wRcQMLseGWZkes-ofousPQE0D9thcUWv7aGoFQQVmp0UmLfdvFya2hqpNgfH9DpjN6rB7ZcM1fq5ywo2ogZBmbCE50-U5OryZL5TB=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhu3A7XTKwm1V8-O5cxrevI6FkIyY2Of1aXUxn5jPUWhwH3XB4H0c5gm43jVi-kkPM2fL1K5h7hYLIA86lCKkIM6Y3PsG2bFs8IKYuHSqutfXiSwJGg6SojQa3I8k23-qyOSf0LfkihVdgmMiImDLrQHMeqckae5xFjDSSvgxHawqonQqYEUgGd1ADLSvpX" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhu3A7XTKwm1V8-O5cxrevI6FkIyY2Of1aXUxn5jPUWhwH3XB4H0c5gm43jVi-kkPM2fL1K5h7hYLIA86lCKkIM6Y3PsG2bFs8IKYuHSqutfXiSwJGg6SojQa3I8k23-qyOSf0LfkihVdgmMiImDLrQHMeqckae5xFjDSSvgxHawqonQqYEUgGd1ADLSvpX=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1JmtNRsM6gZ5eX0VuUJEjXAe3P-Gycflt_7FidORgUfQiU5kSacZbmBFcf1AzP67nNctG_HnnBCWtLLlOEVUyrfyaL7-umCrJfaV_tBOK-yl-LX0PiyuSN3kGgrBfKk3h_XFUqxAYFPR_AoWXsmDZiZA7tZbE66MoGxRBUBvnShYfUBGDyGn4WGx3ziV4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1JmtNRsM6gZ5eX0VuUJEjXAe3P-Gycflt_7FidORgUfQiU5kSacZbmBFcf1AzP67nNctG_HnnBCWtLLlOEVUyrfyaL7-umCrJfaV_tBOK-yl-LX0PiyuSN3kGgrBfKk3h_XFUqxAYFPR_AoWXsmDZiZA7tZbE66MoGxRBUBvnShYfUBGDyGn4WGx3ziV4=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjn84OONK_dSPBY6VpFfT72P13YaRlVfLMLlNjk9VbNLbht4MDbMynbhnA3stW-zdKRsu5NgxmX0gsLpdlAx81pBktYTmwNPsre1kmmeByg_TRvXLmYIemM2d2N_xK40Q8N3CUdPgHjwsGsQwgrGTPA9oRhPUrTFoLLtZ17h63TPPs8EAFSf23wVDljnQ-0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjn84OONK_dSPBY6VpFfT72P13YaRlVfLMLlNjk9VbNLbht4MDbMynbhnA3stW-zdKRsu5NgxmX0gsLpdlAx81pBktYTmwNPsre1kmmeByg_TRvXLmYIemM2d2N_xK40Q8N3CUdPgHjwsGsQwgrGTPA9oRhPUrTFoLLtZ17h63TPPs8EAFSf23wVDljnQ-0=w640-h320" width="640" /></a><p></p><p>We can see that on average, if we anchor our model of day-to-day voting intention to the result on election day in May 2022, that our estimate is 1.3 percentage points less favourable to Labor. However, while the polls appear to have a pro-Labor bias, we need to be cautious. Partly because the model is less constrained than the previous model, and partly because there are few polls on the left hand side, the confidence intervals associated with the model are wider than for our zero-sum house effects model. In particular, the model results suggest that the systemic poll error might be anywhere between -1.0 and +3.5 percentage points in Labour's favour. Therefore, while it is more likely than not that the two-party preferred (2pp) polls favour Labor, with these results we cannot be certain. <br /></p><p>The only series where the model is certain that the polls collectively are biased is in respect of Labor's primary vote shares, where the polls appear to be 2.7 percentage points collectively more favourable to Labor. We can be confident as the associated probability density chart below does not have zero within the highest density interval (HDI). While we cannot be certain, it does look like it is more likely than not that some bias is also evident with the Coalition and Other parties primary vote share. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEglHU4PlAcqlTDjCfa5Am9uRCS7WXhYMqZWqxXYvZNgGjrwd4jLufCHKjYhnpdS86VJ8kV0wyARA4r3NwwxKT7KzYE4d647nVSd097nT1sXsR92P-rQtYUVm-0ANWyMaieo5vpoNHQy1A1vf1uLG_31eBJrxPoe-Vp-WW9RX4TcC_YszPxJaCV18dD3-Vji" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEglHU4PlAcqlTDjCfa5Am9uRCS7WXhYMqZWqxXYvZNgGjrwd4jLufCHKjYhnpdS86VJ8kV0wyARA4r3NwwxKT7KzYE4d647nVSd097nT1sXsR92P-rQtYUVm-0ANWyMaieo5vpoNHQy1A1vf1uLG_31eBJrxPoe-Vp-WW9RX4TcC_YszPxJaCV18dD3-Vji=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxtoPLamBWZiQICtioT3BaoiEHLuoYIDxX4ECc1whJIbjENUdlzSHEQqh9uJYzTlj7WgiFO-9rYHCPYia_LXoc02d-5giYXeTn64eZtWE5ArYqIRdEJo6lD-Um0LrEGa4VDbVCQfqWhgHxH_Z_ISWwQfTQSlMSi2safo_tlBW1mvjJVOxBiz3WIj16VuFk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxtoPLamBWZiQICtioT3BaoiEHLuoYIDxX4ECc1whJIbjENUdlzSHEQqh9uJYzTlj7WgiFO-9rYHCPYia_LXoc02d-5giYXeTn64eZtWE5ArYqIRdEJo6lD-Um0LrEGa4VDbVCQfqWhgHxH_Z_ISWwQfTQSlMSi2safo_tlBW1mvjJVOxBiz3WIj16VuFk=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEigY6wBbb9sm1FRMGZgIxNP3z3Jr41szzCQ3_iWliYZVjwiIN3OiQuCG6a5GJM1vagO7DhTeR-a26Y_C7sWvG6UEXm_UkEA6HNXIh0sLpjztAdLiL8MhUSoYOGIz_NRcVWwG_PVdrZxQefL7dNHLNrpZGfVtOgMbdJJ9YwiwnOs8CjVApnrt_BF2ayx4v1B" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEigY6wBbb9sm1FRMGZgIxNP3z3Jr41szzCQ3_iWliYZVjwiIN3OiQuCG6a5GJM1vagO7DhTeR-a26Y_C7sWvG6UEXm_UkEA6HNXIh0sLpjztAdLiL8MhUSoYOGIz_NRcVWwG_PVdrZxQefL7dNHLNrpZGfVtOgMbdJJ9YwiwnOs8CjVApnrt_BF2ayx4v1B=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhyxTrEq19ujmSYtVMhoFhGv7qoYW6sqM60WSvO16Y3nxJOLQMu1enrqa6TfQaoF_hiRf0EdBvoQDIvK72RY9QReOPa1RpXWghT3wWCj9WblyXIH1Ys-v8_sYJSgwRDuANbsi0p5l6MjoIClbcdkdsAx7gkI0EBUZ652_EXXLt997BECfE9wzYGeONbJk--" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhyxTrEq19ujmSYtVMhoFhGv7qoYW6sqM60WSvO16Y3nxJOLQMu1enrqa6TfQaoF_hiRf0EdBvoQDIvK72RY9QReOPa1RpXWghT3wWCj9WblyXIH1Ys-v8_sYJSgwRDuANbsi0p5l6MjoIClbcdkdsAx7gkI0EBUZ652_EXXLt997BECfE9wzYGeONbJk--=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-41941532232955610642023-10-28T16:25:00.000+11:002023-10-28T16:25:01.446+11:00Betting markets<p>I have started tracking the betting market at <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics/48th-parliament-of-australia-6560505" target="_blank">sportsbet.com.au</a> for the next Australian Federal Election. The specific question I am tracking is the party which will supply the Prime Minister following the next election. I plain to capture a snapshot of the relevant odds daily, sometime around midday. I will not be reporting on the "Any other party" odds, as I consider the results to be skewed by the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias" target="_blank">long-shot bias</a>.</p><p>As I have only been tracking this for a day, the charts at this stage are not very interesting. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgbgV0wf_UpCyxs0fY_ITTs1hdzuX2XFGi1bMHK2_lkjnd3dzow4amfmUbmZ03JUhMy499X4AiSz4rHewefD8VLt__HRmxQhnEN42An-_SObX6rtiPoVXTxr7ad5jSaXV_YsvQCv8kw7ml9PdbKXyv52WPE5BgNQS8HHdq_CQDNj_x3AAI692XqgI7nG3hV" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgbgV0wf_UpCyxs0fY_ITTs1hdzuX2XFGi1bMHK2_lkjnd3dzow4amfmUbmZ03JUhMy499X4AiSz4rHewefD8VLt__HRmxQhnEN42An-_SObX6rtiPoVXTxr7ad5jSaXV_YsvQCv8kw7ml9PdbKXyv52WPE5BgNQS8HHdq_CQDNj_x3AAI692XqgI7nG3hV=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgXvEv4unnApGUTE0zPJgEJ2w4HTPGmwF7OuvK8aJSRp5HbL_J0S6yy5vIrxeobdju_N6L2pb8x9-vLzu7tSfWNiv6fYzzZgorOiYEwBxIUU7xS7jVdnrDC0vwzrtElQnSlDDxZ0F5Fwh047AVvAXbQglIQjcXCj4VUIAHSYwgPMnHxkkVSf-diKWzAe-d9" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgXvEv4unnApGUTE0zPJgEJ2w4HTPGmwF7OuvK8aJSRp5HbL_J0S6yy5vIrxeobdju_N6L2pb8x9-vLzu7tSfWNiv6fYzzZgorOiYEwBxIUU7xS7jVdnrDC0vwzrtElQnSlDDxZ0F5Fwh047AVvAXbQglIQjcXCj4VUIAHSYwgPMnHxkkVSf-diKWzAe-d9=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />Nonetheless, I was a little surprised at the 60/40 probabilities. My prior, before looking at the odds, was that it is very unusual for a first term government to lose their first election as a government. <p></p>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-88080670376987763242023-10-26T11:52:00.002+11:002023-10-26T11:52:28.374+11:00Poll aggregation<p>I have updated my Bayesian poll aggregation models for the 2025 Australian Federal election. The aggregation suggests that Labor would win an election if one was held now. Nonetheless, voting intention for Labor is down from its peak around 56 per cent earlier in the year.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjlUBCC0jOdqe-iDCfjYevGsezVXds641lFUysMwwgobrtlTOiRg5lk_H2kp5lp_mw-zRPS-urEzFpludsmDb7k8bugs0ZRsBMRybIdKSqeadR4HFBJ7tcCSqd2T3qVo5g3ZD67cr97Yvhy-U7xuaXR1o6hJN5i2vzQBl6mgvog_ER6Zp0nDIKv9lRiWXm0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjlUBCC0jOdqe-iDCfjYevGsezVXds641lFUysMwwgobrtlTOiRg5lk_H2kp5lp_mw-zRPS-urEzFpludsmDb7k8bugs0ZRsBMRybIdKSqeadR4HFBJ7tcCSqd2T3qVo5g3ZD67cr97Yvhy-U7xuaXR1o6hJN5i2vzQBl6mgvog_ER6Zp0nDIKv9lRiWXm0=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZrRPhrPd2walWPWGPNEyFkZ9SSY1bKOGoIle5KHqXD20DvkPeWDCT7GRzT-5vdCJWnMNjjXaH4L2HuCGfYNiqWhqmFkcOU2LizUpIADElj8C05JYiouG7dm3JKZ22Le1Fm8aMEBLIpV79O4m7e-_XSKWj4SJd901usOeM2xS-Zzy-gWUPkthyGoxNxj3S" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZrRPhrPd2walWPWGPNEyFkZ9SSY1bKOGoIle5KHqXD20DvkPeWDCT7GRzT-5vdCJWnMNjjXaH4L2HuCGfYNiqWhqmFkcOU2LizUpIADElj8C05JYiouG7dm3JKZ22Le1Fm8aMEBLIpV79O4m7e-_XSKWj4SJd901usOeM2xS-Zzy-gWUPkthyGoxNxj3S=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>There has also been some movement in the primary voting intention. The non-mainstream other primary vote share is largely unchanged over the year. The Green vote is up. The Coalition vote is up. And Labor's vote is down.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjWstWUa9VLvbuR6ecbBa20RQ6QZIogXTtFrNwOg0kSuxOSBifDbRm9ycQ819k5G_dDaAu_jxoRJGk294SiL585RVMm0yhFn84fTvQ57Vy_n5BxGfqe1tUXNKG7g8D0nBZNdAQTzw9pGGTe-a9-upk4xOwT5o8tRgenX_6OknBUQ1CJx5I4dLTrE0lyTsDZ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjWstWUa9VLvbuR6ecbBa20RQ6QZIogXTtFrNwOg0kSuxOSBifDbRm9ycQ819k5G_dDaAu_jxoRJGk294SiL585RVMm0yhFn84fTvQ57Vy_n5BxGfqe1tUXNKG7g8D0nBZNdAQTzw9pGGTe-a9-upk4xOwT5o8tRgenX_6OknBUQ1CJx5I4dLTrE0lyTsDZ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiwzLUP757HfJnXaqDgaE_NP8jjDM_AKMbalbO5zjUANYkKQIsbVhivVRz5LrIc51056ZjzmbJwcEadYncBev_vU7okLu0WNY3vssZZ0hlUcCSQsjJXUM7gr1z6eCxxKcWMtL3gByxMtHqcGSb0r-Ws0FC8lGJrJd4VOzycsH_Vvt_wHC88-1zHKQpHrmFX" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiwzLUP757HfJnXaqDgaE_NP8jjDM_AKMbalbO5zjUANYkKQIsbVhivVRz5LrIc51056ZjzmbJwcEadYncBev_vU7okLu0WNY3vssZZ0hlUcCSQsjJXUM7gr1z6eCxxKcWMtL3gByxMtHqcGSb0r-Ws0FC8lGJrJd4VOzycsH_Vvt_wHC88-1zHKQpHrmFX=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgwB5xIxlIqbUiNag3ZYo3gcB7MvyHjLH5l3hbfSiSVHd5H9WcaM2yjg7FZtHKrfcXL_5C6g-K-PtDCpJTDQPtr45h5sl643osKSvq-CMRg9wkm9RpUIYTwULzEI1cwfOmRn2ACCS_ZYSTsH_kTdeAU7TLMHK1k9Qfkac6uoOp-DuWI_wMpE4yC0tmSvy1f" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgwB5xIxlIqbUiNag3ZYo3gcB7MvyHjLH5l3hbfSiSVHd5H9WcaM2yjg7FZtHKrfcXL_5C6g-K-PtDCpJTDQPtr45h5sl643osKSvq-CMRg9wkm9RpUIYTwULzEI1cwfOmRn2ACCS_ZYSTsH_kTdeAU7TLMHK1k9Qfkac6uoOp-DuWI_wMpE4yC0tmSvy1f=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg-ZGaRGTyMqe_48eDv7AJ65uNtpJeFi_1LixiQGRTzkyl-lakCEqy_MB3cbXe5qytUlKSxkikBzMTPscurVdlqAgrCurs6nQw_zmDHSy0a-XuykdfgYC73gaWFp_5PGNRl-Zr2t7kWVTCa8cExMJOfp25C9qLas_liCKUBZ_qyGu6VC5gAO6j_1SN5ZG-M" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg-ZGaRGTyMqe_48eDv7AJ65uNtpJeFi_1LixiQGRTzkyl-lakCEqy_MB3cbXe5qytUlKSxkikBzMTPscurVdlqAgrCurs6nQw_zmDHSy0a-XuykdfgYC73gaWFp_5PGNRl-Zr2t7kWVTCa8cExMJOfp25C9qLas_liCKUBZ_qyGu6VC5gAO6j_1SN5ZG-M=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />Perhaps the largest movement over the year is in the satisfaction with Prime Minister Albanese's performance. The following charts are based on a 3-month localised regression.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgF7d3HJCcAlsBmIxswYPh7Webhf75ei0TSmOAHU9EbI57Rgu9Msds2-ZrIy1CE_1KY1BhOXvhbqBOn3-KpJ13OvhjYJxQU9r-CivwCbc3ktjkbSb0gVFVwgwp-Wm_mbpzszp5cqIyBU6bSJtPB4YbA4oKHzD7hfdjZ9Lx1_05Z7fGJ9toTb4yEprgdoxnR" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgF7d3HJCcAlsBmIxswYPh7Webhf75ei0TSmOAHU9EbI57Rgu9Msds2-ZrIy1CE_1KY1BhOXvhbqBOn3-KpJ13OvhjYJxQU9r-CivwCbc3ktjkbSb0gVFVwgwp-Wm_mbpzszp5cqIyBU6bSJtPB4YbA4oKHzD7hfdjZ9Lx1_05Z7fGJ9toTb4yEprgdoxnR=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjqFDTP-i98MjBzbl7MbyrHGHKUHsSv8ipfAiYBJJm_69-WKD8KUDAsM0Woc0qtQl7cY8aev1sLjBwrAM31892s5yoivfu1rN0vN7r4T60VSDQNnVBW1HyT1sRY4dtqW_CzAVd3m-VQabyW-pFOH9Si_hCZvbXkuYd2QJJ-iblskDlSLQqxfWY-VLJysQNK" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjqFDTP-i98MjBzbl7MbyrHGHKUHsSv8ipfAiYBJJm_69-WKD8KUDAsM0Woc0qtQl7cY8aev1sLjBwrAM31892s5yoivfu1rN0vN7r4T60VSDQNnVBW1HyT1sRY4dtqW_CzAVd3m-VQabyW-pFOH9Si_hCZvbXkuYd2QJJ-iblskDlSLQqxfWY-VLJysQNK=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><div>The remaining attitudinal charts show less change.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj1FY1khRSOxbICXQlZPspVX05hS4tHzXzdPxSOqCx6mK36h9-DVVXgGWWhT1Xh2Ca776jJn_dAe5GXK1kcawocqgIltNc4Y5_anIbgeIOnL4py4VmNEaJw0l6S5P9eMvig220Lfgb10g8Z1lxEdS2NhK-Qv9LZ_Fso2vjC7plNiVduEXh560oqzyFqtxCO" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj1FY1khRSOxbICXQlZPspVX05hS4tHzXzdPxSOqCx6mK36h9-DVVXgGWWhT1Xh2Ca776jJn_dAe5GXK1kcawocqgIltNc4Y5_anIbgeIOnL4py4VmNEaJw0l6S5P9eMvig220Lfgb10g8Z1lxEdS2NhK-Qv9LZ_Fso2vjC7plNiVduEXh560oqzyFqtxCO=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhVMnTYfKuR1r2Sw6xRYfQzzmSWmrF8SxW3Wh4OyeIky12oprMWxsrL05ESbxR7nPSBG0vWYFsPdk8b5ZKeY0wg0gLlEjbvio3E_EcA6vTMFnSf0k_4KWZip3hglcScnKqO_ZdU0DyGNY9jGcYMxhc7MEqflAWT5mvHT93mxVLTSJcg8jovUQuaZr8_TUKv" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhVMnTYfKuR1r2Sw6xRYfQzzmSWmrF8SxW3Wh4OyeIky12oprMWxsrL05ESbxR7nPSBG0vWYFsPdk8b5ZKeY0wg0gLlEjbvio3E_EcA6vTMFnSf0k_4KWZip3hglcScnKqO_ZdU0DyGNY9jGcYMxhc7MEqflAWT5mvHT93mxVLTSJcg8jovUQuaZr8_TUKv=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><div><p></p></div>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-58738708730305685972023-10-20T15:16:00.004+11:002023-11-02T14:15:59.911+11:00Voice Referendum 2023<p>Updated on 25 October and 2 November 2023:</p><p>Going into the the Voice Referendum, collectively the polls suggested that the referendum would be lost. There was not one poll predicting a win in the last couple of months before the referendum. This was a win for polling.</p><p>Using a Bayesian technique, we can pool the polls. The technique assumes that the voting intention on one day is much like the day before. We can only know the actual voting intention on referendum day. Prior to the referendum, the model assumes the voting intention broadly tracks the opinion polling. The model also assumes that each pollster has an inherent bias. This bias is referred to as an house effect. This is not to suggest that any pollster is deliberately biased. Rather, the bias comes about from systemic factors such as how individual pollsters select and interview their sample, how results are weighted, and so on. However, collectively, this model assumes these biases cancel out (they sum to zero). </p><p>The pooled polls (assuming that individual pollster bias cancelled out) predicted the yes vote would be around 43.4 per cent immediately before the referendum.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEisc-mhPEC_yyy3T7NIv2QHTxZ08GdxfXHHiSEyLJzrARTMyPbwrfRT-msunTvqXDVkD5DbkjoiHoIUSqMIPOvhUNWkO_10x9XaebPbQOc-H-38SCvs8pmo7KtJAyM8dw-xvRbmNRBM2FhiPr1mBde_by0hhTEW017XeOwGxdp2FnLqSHvVsQ2k0Hwu-o9C" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="368" data-original-width="488" height="302" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEisc-mhPEC_yyy3T7NIv2QHTxZ08GdxfXHHiSEyLJzrARTMyPbwrfRT-msunTvqXDVkD5DbkjoiHoIUSqMIPOvhUNWkO_10x9XaebPbQOc-H-38SCvs8pmo7KtJAyM8dw-xvRbmNRBM2FhiPr1mBde_by0hhTEW017XeOwGxdp2FnLqSHvVsQ2k0Hwu-o9C=w400-h302" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjtFRQqebAx5JeL6qsojZKLHQlSSFt-IjM-aEFg6o0yJBcUzSezdfENNs7CEGE9rAzrI4WzejLQt_5_6un0tGsdXrqnqwYP4t9QlKETnLJiAO5aWfay9eYZ0qmjiIAv2IFE0cmYK3SKyusKsdmNsFTgGJKwhqzU0UTrRb3dLhA9bql0Za1NAcTPgCBImQni" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjtFRQqebAx5JeL6qsojZKLHQlSSFt-IjM-aEFg6o0yJBcUzSezdfENNs7CEGE9rAzrI4WzejLQt_5_6un0tGsdXrqnqwYP4t9QlKETnLJiAO5aWfay9eYZ0qmjiIAv2IFE0cmYK3SKyusKsdmNsFTgGJKwhqzU0UTrRb3dLhA9bql0Za1NAcTPgCBImQni=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjEBUmXc_lZ-BKVjODAZnwbvjpWvdWv8NQdG2LSgmsYXkuu3j1ABvlQhDHxjdIWpjVItf2Nl3AphU3Otv_0TB_UdoFCfMmbh8ZHWz3ghD36VbNB9UaGpivQvMvVTNPnGaU_ED9Otz2SRm4Z1K9nYwW_28qDFSnOJo9JtFP2nKacAB56q-7PhEWasWx47o74" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjEBUmXc_lZ-BKVjODAZnwbvjpWvdWv8NQdG2LSgmsYXkuu3j1ABvlQhDHxjdIWpjVItf2Nl3AphU3Otv_0TB_UdoFCfMmbh8ZHWz3ghD36VbNB9UaGpivQvMvVTNPnGaU_ED9Otz2SRm4Z1K9nYwW_28qDFSnOJo9JtFP2nKacAB56q-7PhEWasWx47o74=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />As it turned out, this was optimistic. It is now a few weeks since the Voice Referendum was lost. While <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/ReferendumNationalResults-29581.htm" target="_blank">the count is still progressing</a>, this afternoon (2 Nov) it stood at 39.94% for <b><i>Yes</i></b> and 60.06% for <b><i>No</i></b>. It is likely that the final count will not differ substantially from this result. <div><br /></div><div>If we run a similar Bayesian model with the only difference being that this model is pegged to the final referendum result, we can calculate the systemic polling error across all pollsters both individually and collectively.</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgUPKH0Ve_4E7Jmo5kybOx4ZtfqKdLb8vGe74-daOXuY0kCCBIrnDK3J-XhddpxLJBdbeFGIlDjbbxs_q6Wp0fDUZSjAOZFEU09fap581L2F7aJKKaEMReJy6i15uZzCkipF1JWXz_9u0QTl5Vw1efodWPOnVYb1g6CgzlYfmgbZELXkG2DlFjvDaXNOvdU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="524" data-original-width="804" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgUPKH0Ve_4E7Jmo5kybOx4ZtfqKdLb8vGe74-daOXuY0kCCBIrnDK3J-XhddpxLJBdbeFGIlDjbbxs_q6Wp0fDUZSjAOZFEU09fap581L2F7aJKKaEMReJy6i15uZzCkipF1JWXz_9u0QTl5Vw1efodWPOnVYb1g6CgzlYfmgbZELXkG2DlFjvDaXNOvdU=w640-h418" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi6U6S_UE_oq9ltpAqlEY4WWM-dCgLLLn4UOiMMQBeuQJ9VS6UI_LQ_b4GphWdxkz4rVHrmlS5pw3KV2KbLBxB6vsCCANOYUZ_eJGp7HMgh7HA4dE8cYJVq9Bfrge2d7wcj1UAAc_8EFFFrMNCJQyPpmvAx2_GrtNU6NDo3O2deNf_58cbKhqnl1MaKfgXZ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi6U6S_UE_oq9ltpAqlEY4WWM-dCgLLLn4UOiMMQBeuQJ9VS6UI_LQ_b4GphWdxkz4rVHrmlS5pw3KV2KbLBxB6vsCCANOYUZ_eJGp7HMgh7HA4dE8cYJVq9Bfrge2d7wcj1UAAc_8EFFFrMNCJQyPpmvAx2_GrtNU6NDo3O2deNf_58cbKhqnl1MaKfgXZ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhoFyv7w9klW28hleqioT_IlOOQb_yKuPxYANveU6o7wAKpie3xLsgkUUDItRJR8lPPTtSZmVyok5D4v1gmiN0SKBCrdKQb0ScN3LFYyecjBK1J4P_zznGhFcA3Jy_pVlIBW4Dvg84fz3qLg0WKoAGwc-ZGZWHqk0Lknf-hpqxMmrSyZ_nsev6BpezV0JTv" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhoFyv7w9klW28hleqioT_IlOOQb_yKuPxYANveU6o7wAKpie3xLsgkUUDItRJR8lPPTtSZmVyok5D4v1gmiN0SKBCrdKQb0ScN3LFYyecjBK1J4P_zznGhFcA3Jy_pVlIBW4Dvg84fz3qLg0WKoAGwc-ZGZWHqk0Lknf-hpqxMmrSyZ_nsev6BpezV0JTv=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />From the house effects chart immediately above, we can see that (over the entire period under analysis) many pollsters had zero bias within their 95% HDI on average. Nonetheless, some pollsters appear to have over-estimated the yes vote by up to 15 percentage points on average, or underestimated it by around 7 percentage points. </div><div><br /></div><div>This was particularly evident with the polling in the first few months of the new Labor government. It is possible that these early polls gave the government false confidence in respect of the winnability of the referendum, and they may have influenced the strategies and tactics adopted by the government towards the referendum. </div><div><br /></div><div>Collectively, the modelling suggests that all pollsters were on average 3.4 percentage points too favourable to the level of yes voting intention over the period under analysis. </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjj9vga-3cSQdVSHHeooLFvvqhmhJnP8_ngSHqpuVCpx8aKGxewkesGrMXAelcdHpYr0UpglCsErkzPD94etuYmkMp4ZET4Gz3ajQb83oKA58IG4ggI9It3DW59oathq4TgrzsFwd2NgaI6CvfvQ5Sws85cIPSnnSal84Ggvf7hokILe-5T5M3hv5d86WEQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjj9vga-3cSQdVSHHeooLFvvqhmhJnP8_ngSHqpuVCpx8aKGxewkesGrMXAelcdHpYr0UpglCsErkzPD94etuYmkMp4ZET4Gz3ajQb83oKA58IG4ggI9It3DW59oathq4TgrzsFwd2NgaI6CvfvQ5Sws85cIPSnnSal84Ggvf7hokILe-5T5M3hv5d86WEQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>Of course, these results are model based, and include a number of modelling assumptions. Care should be taken when interpreting the results. <br /><p></p><p>The notebook for this analysis can be found <a href="https://github.com/bpalmer4/Australian-Referendum-Voice-2023/blob/main/notebooks/Australian-Referendum-Voice.ipynb" target="_blank">here</a>. The data for the analysis came from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Australian_Indigenous_Voice_referendum">Wikipedia</a>.</p><p>For another perspective see <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/11/voice-referendum-polling-accuracy.html" target="_blank">Kevin Boneham</a>.</p><div><div><div style="text-align: left;"><div><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="text-align: left;">F</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"></div></div><p></p></div></div></div>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-27211646770077689542022-06-26T13:34:00.019+10:002022-06-28T10:51:09.421+10:00The Crossbench<p>The crossbench in the 2019 House of Representatives had six members: Adam Bandt (GRN/Melbourne), Helen Haines (Ind/Indi), Bob Katter (KAP/Kennedy), Rebekah Sharkie (CA/Mayo), Zali Steggall (Ind/Warringah), and Andrew Wilkie (Ind/Clark).<br /></p><p>After the 2022 election the crossbench has 16 members. All of the crossbench members from the 2019 Parliament were returned. In addition there are 10 new members: Stephen Bates (GRN/Brisbane), Max Chandler-Mather (GRN/Griffith), Kate Chaney (Ind/Curtin), Zoe Daniel (Ind/Goldstein), Dai Le (Ind/Fowler), Monique Ryan (Ind/Kooyong), Sophie Scamps (Ind/Mackellar), Allegra Spender (Ind/Wentworth), Kylea Tink (Ind/North Sydney), and Elizabeth Watson-Brown (GRN/Ryan).</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgLtThrlvGdw2YC9HzMs8LV1JKZBUGwYU4zYfueyYuQfZWb9ZkC6pwawsE-MbHTWr3cIw6iHEdMYKJdlsi4_ZQZ_mTq0GkhtePh8fPzhiS7exxMvi8TIh4_60ceESb6UotMvMcltm77wXyjqhL1f1wHKROYLBPF42iLvC-lggnjv_GYdeLZjYyTupvSzw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgLtThrlvGdw2YC9HzMs8LV1JKZBUGwYU4zYfueyYuQfZWb9ZkC6pwawsE-MbHTWr3cIw6iHEdMYKJdlsi4_ZQZ_mTq0GkhtePh8fPzhiS7exxMvi8TIh4_60ceESb6UotMvMcltm77wXyjqhL1f1wHKROYLBPF42iLvC-lggnjv_GYdeLZjYyTupvSzw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>According to the two-party preferred (2PP) count of votes, the crossbench took nine seats from the Coalition and seven seats from Labor.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEixhfqWB_wNvLlypPHVHZx7_bushUbZzfSXUL5d4iyfN-lU_kHYCUjnuEDac2RvltFM4FY-T9tKOPVyHGAwDq8X-fvx7zfuiCKMuqLSWH1C6HeZDDmScFxgTIDyAQhuPvwLakis9gDFl45XeaQtEQm1N8RVBexzNjCmRaVRZP9Xpex7MRZl2CrCucViQQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEixhfqWB_wNvLlypPHVHZx7_bushUbZzfSXUL5d4iyfN-lU_kHYCUjnuEDac2RvltFM4FY-T9tKOPVyHGAwDq8X-fvx7zfuiCKMuqLSWH1C6HeZDDmScFxgTIDyAQhuPvwLakis9gDFl45XeaQtEQm1N8RVBexzNjCmRaVRZP9Xpex7MRZl2CrCucViQQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>The notionally Coalition seats are as follows. The swings in this table are the swings in percentage points towards the Coalition (+), or away from the Coalition (-).
</p><p></p><table align="center" border="1" bordercolor="#cccccc" style="border-collapse: collapse;">
<thead>
<tr style="text-align: right;">
<th><br /></th>
<th>State</th>
<th>2PP Coalition Percentage</th>
<th>2PP Labor Percentage</th>
<th>Swing</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Division</th>
<th><br /></th>
<th><br /></th>
<th><br /></th>
<th><br /></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>North Sydney</th>
<td>NSW</td>
<td>51.26</td>
<td>48.74</td>
<td>-8.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Warringah</th>
<td>NSW</td>
<td>51.43</td>
<td>48.57</td>
<td>-0.69</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Kooyong</th>
<td>VIC</td>
<td>54.18</td>
<td>45.82</td>
<td>-2.21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Goldstein</th>
<td>VIC</td>
<td>54.80</td>
<td>45.20</td>
<td>-2.99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Indi</th>
<td>VIC</td>
<td>55.26</td>
<td>44.74</td>
<td>-7.47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Curtin</th>
<td>WA</td>
<td>55.60</td>
<td>44.40</td>
<td>-8.35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Wentworth</th>
<td>NSW</td>
<td>55.92</td>
<td>44.08</td>
<td>-3.93</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Mackellar</th>
<td>NSW</td>
<td>58.60</td>
<td>41.40</td>
<td>-4.62</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Kennedy</th>
<td>QLD</td>
<td>60.16</td>
<td>39.84</td>
<td>-4.35</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><p></p><p>The notionally Labor seats are as follows.</p>
<p></p><table align="center" border="1" bordercolor="#cccccc" style="border-collapse: collapse;">
<thead>
<tr style="text-align: right;">
<th><br /></th>
<th>State</th>
<th>2PP Coalition Percentage</th>
<th>2PP Labor Percentage</th>
<th>Swing</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Division</th>
<th><br /></th>
<th><br /></th>
<th><br /></th>
<th><br /></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Mayo</th>
<td>SA</td>
<td>48.41</td>
<td>51.59</td>
<td>-4.13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Ryan</th>
<td>QLD</td>
<td>47.58</td>
<td>52.42</td>
<td>-8.45</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Brisbane</th>
<td>QLD</td>
<td>45.60</td>
<td>54.40</td>
<td>-9.32</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Fowler</th>
<td>NSW</td>
<td>44.28</td>
<td>55.72</td>
<td>8.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Griffith</th>
<td>QLD</td>
<td>38.93</td>
<td>61.07</td>
<td>-8.21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Clark</th>
<td>TAS</td>
<td>32.76</td>
<td>67.24</td>
<td>-1.07</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Melbourne</th>
<td>VIC</td>
<td>22.09</td>
<td>77.91</td>
<td>-10.11</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><p></p><p></p><p>Of note, Fowler is the only one of these crossbench seats that saw a 2PP swing to the Coalition. Mayo, which is held by Rebekah Sharkie (CA) has gone from being a
notionally Coalition seat to a notionally Labor seat, according to the
two-party preferred count. Brisbane and Ryan in Queensland, now held by
the Greens, have transitioned from being Coalition seats to being
notionally Labor seats. </p><p>And a quick look at these seats ...</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEisBmoBzrFqfhxjIO8yk5sBXsHkK5iH7nIK07NR2Zca1kNBI_c1eOOG-RMHcYzBkEZucSurKvd8qS2KjprzubHw5dVFCSVL8ubfX5wMEZa8P6zFbIAdCIrIQQvlT1M3q2u8j3jtvo1N9THrY9ObAmdXN7nG44f_NVcgy9CrOTmQ9gXtw27zt7UIPYxQZw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEisBmoBzrFqfhxjIO8yk5sBXsHkK5iH7nIK07NR2Zca1kNBI_c1eOOG-RMHcYzBkEZucSurKvd8qS2KjprzubHw5dVFCSVL8ubfX5wMEZa8P6zFbIAdCIrIQQvlT1M3q2u8j3jtvo1N9THrY9ObAmdXN7nG44f_NVcgy9CrOTmQ9gXtw27zt7UIPYxQZw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiPsenAS0S58XB7KjIHFp71UIRsw_UCGZBT87BxEkg3NiyOd-Rqtg8Ch1nAs87C7htw5HFxq42IO-ldPYaejBurbrA_b9fZV4M255KL-wWriKOwCBiw9P6X7xeW7YKhQlsPoafLEUfNqB72sCSGrojXHEYsFHNvUq4-eiHzfEf_3C5OCnsjv-7IMX1fWg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiPsenAS0S58XB7KjIHFp71UIRsw_UCGZBT87BxEkg3NiyOd-Rqtg8Ch1nAs87C7htw5HFxq42IO-ldPYaejBurbrA_b9fZV4M255KL-wWriKOwCBiw9P6X7xeW7YKhQlsPoafLEUfNqB72sCSGrojXHEYsFHNvUq4-eiHzfEf_3C5OCnsjv-7IMX1fWg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhyEfxFj4NqmcBl-SnzC19z74oJWL2WygloJ8G1sNxed29WlOoNP7tnx5kwgKfnd5sQ74rSmiGN900gIXGQ9lZkyUToiPtnqC_DTkG2k0cO-vgA2CoO1dj7ok-Q8nKz9x7YGIvZJs2N26-9Aas3GoYj5tF0gr2UpnobwS8b2bssmSaRcoz0r9FtxAZtRQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhyEfxFj4NqmcBl-SnzC19z74oJWL2WygloJ8G1sNxed29WlOoNP7tnx5kwgKfnd5sQ74rSmiGN900gIXGQ9lZkyUToiPtnqC_DTkG2k0cO-vgA2CoO1dj7ok-Q8nKz9x7YGIvZJs2N26-9Aas3GoYj5tF0gr2UpnobwS8b2bssmSaRcoz0r9FtxAZtRQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEixwCHX7AYnbMKAOs6x2hjOn0gr28MjHptx5ixVvpFfQ8c_y25IRu5fF0AlzYQRgSlRgF2Td-qckVFesxomdnYlHGqZ8Hdeug99gdNhuTqg07icxwYf0m03kh1SjZORo_LTzNzGCprR26ve2bbTS2YvYuc7Ou2dVi_m6sGLVJqxRl_0OdXrHqsQrHzgtA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /><br /></div><p></p><p></p>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-13501138913256505842022-06-25T11:19:00.009+10:002022-06-25T12:51:00.259+10:00Poll performance - 2022 Australian Federal Election<p>Now that the count is complete we can look at the performance of the final polls immediately prior to the 2022 Australian Federal Election. In terms of the final two party preferred (TPP) outcome, in which Labor won 52.13 per cent of that vote, all of the final polls performed well. The final estimates of TPP voting intention were all well within the margin of error. This is a substantial improvement on performance in 2019. <br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhyb1lvUMOKyZfFCGcKXhdpy_lGi0WogkHAb02uEREkwitcPErkiNnn-NZNzzWQ90X-bmzVL7V7YGBSohm9o3AnVMPzvwtt1UhatoWu9K-QU0P7VbmU29Yryy7bko8Is9uCUYVCMZyBbY3To595vDFbUQRcTrT5GrBTcgVtYKC93Ry-adb0O_8XDbhaCg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhyb1lvUMOKyZfFCGcKXhdpy_lGi0WogkHAb02uEREkwitcPErkiNnn-NZNzzWQ90X-bmzVL7V7YGBSohm9o3AnVMPzvwtt1UhatoWu9K-QU0P7VbmU29Yryy7bko8Is9uCUYVCMZyBbY3To595vDFbUQRcTrT5GrBTcgVtYKC93Ry-adb0O_8XDbhaCg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>However, there was some patchiness among the these final polls when it came to estimating the first preference primary votes for each of the major parties. Only the final poll from Resolve Strategic had each primary vote estimate within the 2-sigma margin of error when compared with the election result. The other polls had a tendency to over-estimate Labor's primary vote share and/or under estimate the vote for one or more of the minor parties and independents. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg3bUKhZUVf5RuAKX_a8YFuXgePEC-RxwAYL_ZByMSL6pFAUG3K-1o0sdVLFrC2Vq_VNaa2AATPoiqQe_vAaVtnZehj0J5jAJFVjvjMSlw5cmoZsXddACd8BoZFcxFit_EOm69fKbNJ11P1CoOq_PCSFncvq7Z0F5X02FKX40gFpkLuDiAGDemJOLpeoQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg3bUKhZUVf5RuAKX_a8YFuXgePEC-RxwAYL_ZByMSL6pFAUG3K-1o0sdVLFrC2Vq_VNaa2AATPoiqQe_vAaVtnZehj0J5jAJFVjvjMSlw5cmoZsXddACd8BoZFcxFit_EOm69fKbNJ11P1CoOq_PCSFncvq7Z0F5X02FKX40gFpkLuDiAGDemJOLpeoQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj6M3MJxYPiL0DlCgy54DyA_dKurMj5QCKyvdHEU1ug2ksvlLSkucAjw1p16x5mAd05wKjoNaE7RhQ6kw7ybPJh_Yj56tivszcDE9Nhv8iaJ5YVPyz4iHqIn0XfOm5LKrdu310VTawXKg2_Ib9y4HhWiI-_Q9891LE3PPGPsECn_uwiGUJdEg2OVjZJ4A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj6M3MJxYPiL0DlCgy54DyA_dKurMj5QCKyvdHEU1ug2ksvlLSkucAjw1p16x5mAd05wKjoNaE7RhQ6kw7ybPJh_Yj56tivszcDE9Nhv8iaJ5YVPyz4iHqIn0XfOm5LKrdu310VTawXKg2_Ib9y4HhWiI-_Q9891LE3PPGPsECn_uwiGUJdEg2OVjZJ4A=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjCBv4pIklpBN4cdYct7quIlNmDd20ys7uyx9syJpmNEYmfOrpRjFmv8meAHPlROr4KqMDpV_bAU8znT5CHdpNt1rl6fgJVKkBIXlXa5BA62_-z9Nfqm8OC9hmI1gX2osqYo0Lba7yZYzepQwfBNra2cgjqunIVRaWHaIKPNqGxuURsbzrKh6-P34gRpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjCBv4pIklpBN4cdYct7quIlNmDd20ys7uyx9syJpmNEYmfOrpRjFmv8meAHPlROr4KqMDpV_bAU8znT5CHdpNt1rl6fgJVKkBIXlXa5BA62_-z9Nfqm8OC9hmI1gX2osqYo0Lba7yZYzepQwfBNra2cgjqunIVRaWHaIKPNqGxuURsbzrKh6-P34gRpg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhV6-qzTIfY8Yte7mLnEajKTRrEKxZDfoKCgOeUoZDLvyXmdatyazzm-fFWGBD9kvCtiHCefHC2ngjm5kqalGf0WXTu8tW3alUg5QJT3aAVuPxNqhB6Hm43UBtjivyuecfdvK_dHQ7Q0p1PSrmWsqr9DmGVVtDk5ZBQZyMQVq7_XNrmp9p7JEw8HY-6Tw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhV6-qzTIfY8Yte7mLnEajKTRrEKxZDfoKCgOeUoZDLvyXmdatyazzm-fFWGBD9kvCtiHCefHC2ngjm5kqalGf0WXTu8tW3alUg5QJT3aAVuPxNqhB6Hm43UBtjivyuecfdvK_dHQ7Q0p1PSrmWsqr9DmGVVtDk5ZBQZyMQVq7_XNrmp9p7JEw8HY-6Tw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj6Nt-AaWIQeSe46t5ypcNTGIy4McHQ4VyZZdl0CoWAwfDBjVo5fjlJNIOqbojIczunJ737hZ0bRF3lUQB22uEvlw0KeNY5uX8-c2tvVz_sZOMwWx2_36EeMyMNnHASFlaFX5W9wupHxWiRh-_SNDeCE27Mh71R_yjbsJ4tOWMmNtrAkMFlnJiMNNTmmw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj6Nt-AaWIQeSe46t5ypcNTGIy4McHQ4VyZZdl0CoWAwfDBjVo5fjlJNIOqbojIczunJ737hZ0bRF3lUQB22uEvlw0KeNY5uX8-c2tvVz_sZOMwWx2_36EeMyMNnHASFlaFX5W9wupHxWiRh-_SNDeCE27Mh71R_yjbsJ4tOWMmNtrAkMFlnJiMNNTmmw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p><br />We can sum the absolute values of the differences between the final poll estimate for each party from each pollster and the election outcome, to rank the performance of these final polls in terms of providing an estimate of the election outcome. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNlRi4UygJLOrxne4Im6mYvl8q-RffUWczjzIvJMAi0e_ISemxM-9xus2k_PC0KWlESeqpMYttdav-QRSbWh_H1S-3jdwJ6X7dcCtnqgMKrdcZFYgLStKrk5H7pZcqwQCdTgEXwquyX6aoFPP07efLROmSn1YeiTi9UOCv6YwFY1mzKka8gWjUQHCy7w" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNlRi4UygJLOrxne4Im6mYvl8q-RffUWczjzIvJMAi0e_ISemxM-9xus2k_PC0KWlESeqpMYttdav-QRSbWh_H1S-3jdwJ6X7dcCtnqgMKrdcZFYgLStKrk5H7pZcqwQCdTgEXwquyX6aoFPP07efLROmSn1YeiTi9UOCv6YwFY1mzKka8gWjUQHCy7w=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /><b><u>Cautionary Note</u></b>: This poll ranking should not be seen as a ranking of the pollsters. We expect polls to be randomly distributed around a mean. If we assume <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceteris_paribus">ceteris paribus</a>, then then it is just luck (or randomness) as to whether the final poll from one pollster would be closer to the election result or not (when compared with another pollster).</p><p><u><b>Also note</b></u>: where pollsters have provided an effective sample size (ESS), this was used to calculate the margin of error. Otherwise the reported sample size was used. </p><p><u><b>Link</b></u>: the Jupyter Notebook for these charts can be found <a href="https://github.com/bpalmer4/Australian-Federal-Election-2022/blob/main/notebooks/Polling%20Performance.ipynb">here</a>.<br /></p><p></p>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-35900877534625240602022-05-28T13:52:00.010+10:002022-05-28T14:24:46.729+10:00Update on the count<p>One week after the election, and we are still not absolutely clear on whether Labor can form majority government (though it does seem likely). My conservative attribution of seats is as follows. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgAczG2CGE0CcZ64wnDge1T0HVxnigz6FFbm8-JQjhiGTLn8SoUM11U8o_1Ms5Ip01GFGkHk91fhSBgpxXyaMbk7yem0fJLgDwykKwB2097cRUnQVClxU5cGkOwSaH5bfxmLrwI42M_8CFrzh9k1cQ18L_ezPosTmGtsFQKUUdOKB1ydDYhRzhdtWCWHA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgAczG2CGE0CcZ64wnDge1T0HVxnigz6FFbm8-JQjhiGTLn8SoUM11U8o_1Ms5Ip01GFGkHk91fhSBgpxXyaMbk7yem0fJLgDwykKwB2097cRUnQVClxU5cGkOwSaH5bfxmLrwI42M_8CFrzh9k1cQ18L_ezPosTmGtsFQKUUdOKB1ydDYhRzhdtWCWHA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div style="text-align: left;"></div><div style="text-align: left;">My allocated seats are as follows.</div></div><p></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Labor: 74 - (Adelaide, Ballarat, Barton, Bean, Bendigo, Bennelong, Blair, Blaxland, Boothby, Brand, Bruce, Burt, Calwell, Canberra, Chifley, Chisholm, Cooper, Corangamite, Corio, Cowan, Cunningham, Dobell, Dunkley, Eden-Monaro, Fenner, Franklin, Fraser, Fremantle, Gellibrand, Gorton, Grayndler, Greenway, Hasluck, Hawke, Higgins, Hindmarsh, Holt, Hotham, Hunter, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Kingsford Smith, Kingston, Lalor, Lilley, Lyons, Macarthur, Macquarie, Makin, Maribyrnong, McEwen, McMahon, Moreton, Newcastle, Oxley, Parramatta, Paterson, Pearce, Perth, Rankin, Reid, Richmond, Robertson, Scullin, Shortland, Solomon, Spence, Swan, Sydney, Tangney, Watson, Werriwa, Whitlam, Wills)</li><li>Coalition: 58 - (Aston, Banks, Barker, Bass, Berowra, Bonner, Bowman, Braddon, Bradfield, Calare, Canning, Capricornia, Casey, Cook, Cowper, Dawson, Deakin, Dickson, Durack, Fadden, Fairfax, Farrer, Fisher, Flinders, Flynn, Forde, Forrest, Gippsland, Grey, Groom, Herbert, Hinkler, Hughes, Hume, La Trobe, Leichhardt, Lindsay, Longman, Lyne, Mallee, Maranoa, McPherson, Menzies, Mitchell, Monash, Moncrieff, Moore, New England, Nicholls, O'Connor, Page, Parkes, Petrie, Riverina, Sturt, Wannon, Wide Bay, Wright)</li><li>Independent: 10 - (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah, Wentworth) </li><li>Green: 3 - (Griffith, Melbourne, Ryan)<br /></li><li>Other: 2 - (Kennedy, Mayo)</li></ul><p>And my unallocated seats are: Brisbane, Gilmore, Lingiari, and Macnamara. These seats have the following first preferences.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg5mnweRCfUj5Q8iCxs_plJqUtBtOm8WM1mpK1y9hTjc5kWA1LAZw2NjtorxywC-5j1R0lOaMTr-Bo4ovATbn5FcK-cINhrbOKOC3-gQJRVYuWKuBgO1LZJggrzrsCsDz1bTZed00tTcOKeHNiui6ndyGrLmExO06K9tvVpefiVK2dQVTyV_R4BKZXMBQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg5mnweRCfUj5Q8iCxs_plJqUtBtOm8WM1mpK1y9hTjc5kWA1LAZw2NjtorxywC-5j1R0lOaMTr-Bo4ovATbn5FcK-cINhrbOKOC3-gQJRVYuWKuBgO1LZJggrzrsCsDz1bTZed00tTcOKeHNiui6ndyGrLmExO06K9tvVpefiVK2dQVTyV_R4BKZXMBQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><p></p><p>Brisbane and Macnamara will be won by either the Greens or Labor, based on preference flows. Which ever party comes third in the preferential count will determine this outcome. The <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/news/results-3cp.htm">AEC is about half-way through its three candidate counts</a> in Brisbane and Macnamara. At this point in the count, Labor is in first position, and it is likely to win <u><b>Macnamara</b></u>. The Greens are just ahead of Labor for second position in <u><b>Brisbane</b></u>, and likely to win on Labor preferences. </p><p>The next chart is based on the two-candidate preferred (TCP) counts from the AEC. The counts for Brisbane and Macnamara may have the wrong candidates. This will be determined by the three-candidate counts currently underway. <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgO0vaQ36L2QsjrMwrJD-RUswUlxn0l5Lcn8g2qhtwk3ztOwBRNOzPvSwPFZ9_MRK3eFlSZ9bb-gwmbA_3vO4OL2OUDhd2LlWGoGb8bNbB8kB0AcZJi90zrgUiQCSVMcWpxYFiemJ6vrBKttV0yvPvv_pnEfB_6WWBV0OoGFb1FoH6zBmeiKzCZACgctA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgO0vaQ36L2QsjrMwrJD-RUswUlxn0l5Lcn8g2qhtwk3ztOwBRNOzPvSwPFZ9_MRK3eFlSZ9bb-gwmbA_3vO4OL2OUDhd2LlWGoGb8bNbB8kB0AcZJi90zrgUiQCSVMcWpxYFiemJ6vrBKttV0yvPvv_pnEfB_6WWBV0OoGFb1FoH6zBmeiKzCZACgctA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></p><p>My system has not allocated <u><b>Lingiari</b></u>, because the TCP vote count is low. However, this seat is highly likely to go to Labor. </p><p><u><b>Gilmore</b></u> will continue to be counted for the rest of next week, until postal votes close. For sake of the next chart, let's assume the Coalition remains ahead. <br /></p><p>Based on the current state of the count, the most likely outcome looks like:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjlo5tHuuR0MuAxfrG8HouSHNpUkUcSt0zeSuc9TdtLOzMFoWgzPEmZ-lgN8VvJcGIKXTQjkVTyNSouG5dfwDnzk3kvoSzv_unImESRrVqRexZGzqcYQvvjaGU9dwrmCQ81kShKcSKnhySyTFFibVR7todGFUE09oPhpk3JuQTcAkX_b1NGqxO18EbzTA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjlo5tHuuR0MuAxfrG8HouSHNpUkUcSt0zeSuc9TdtLOzMFoWgzPEmZ-lgN8VvJcGIKXTQjkVTyNSouG5dfwDnzk3kvoSzv_unImESRrVqRexZGzqcYQvvjaGU9dwrmCQ81kShKcSKnhySyTFFibVR7todGFUE09oPhpk3JuQTcAkX_b1NGqxO18EbzTA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />But if Gilmore flips, it will be Labor on 77 and the Coalition on 58. Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-37606124599075239572022-05-24T11:12:00.003+10:002022-05-24T11:15:21.525+10:00State of the House (10am Tuesday)<p>Using the latest data from the <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDownloadsMenu-27966-Csv.htm">Australian Electoral Commission</a>, this is my take on the official count.</p><p>Let's start by allocating those seats where the two-candidate preferred vote (2cp) is higher than 51.5 per cent, <u><b>and</b></u> where the official 2cp count is greater than 50 per cent of enrolments in the division.<br /></p><p>This allocates 71 seats to Labor: Adelaide, Ballarat, Barton, Bean, Bendigo, Blair, Blaxland, Boothby, Brand, Bruce, Burt, Calwell, Chifley, Chisholm, Cooper, Corangamite, Corio, Cowan, Cunningham, Dobell, Dunkley, Eden-Monaro, Fenner, Franklin, Fraser, Fremantle, Gorton, Grayndler, Greenway, Hasluck, Hawke, Higgins, Hindmarsh, Holt, Hotham, Hunter, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Kingsford Smith, Kingston, Lalor, Lilley, Macarthur, Macnamara, Macquarie, Makin, Maribyrnong, McEwen, McMahon, Moreton, Newcastle, Oxley, Parramatta, Paterson, Pearce, Perth, Rankin, Reid, Richmond, Robertson, Scullin, Shortland, Solomon, Spence, Swan, Sydney, Tangney, Watson, Werriwa, Whitlam, and Wills.</p><p>It allocates 46 seats to the Coalition: Aston, Banks, Barker, Berowra, Bonner, Bowman, Braddon, Canning, Capricornia, Cook, Cowper, Dawson, Dickson, Durack, Fadden, Fairfax, Farrer, Fisher, Flinders, Flynn, Forde, Forrest, Gippsland, Groom, Herbert, Hughes, Hume, La Trobe, Leichhardt, Lindsay, Longman, Lyne, Mallee, McPherson, Mitchell, Monash, Moncrieff, New England, Nicholls, O'Connor, Page, Parkes, Petrie, Riverina, Wide Bay, and Wright.</p><p>And it allocates 12 seats to the cross-bench: Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kennedy, Kooyong, Mackellar, Mayo, North Sydney, Warringah, and Wentworth.</p><p>It leaves us with 22 seats where either the count is close or the official 2cp counts is not well progressed. [In the case of Brisbane and Wannon, the official 2cp count has not (re-)started].</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhlQMwKCDF7B5rHwVn_2-XA2CIH1Hlh6RVkDIElO67vBkp6wfbwU9UJVytdPvOultX3H95IPyqEK1eBPUWtSOpwKMue2UrjWeMPFS0xaIE-mllQMhZ23E2o8Z1oUb1pGDzIKGJZs155WErdBZIePcn217rjZBA8ruS3DSpxlovaJ79gjt27XgULWC6Izw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2100" data-original-width="2700" height="497" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhlQMwKCDF7B5rHwVn_2-XA2CIH1Hlh6RVkDIElO67vBkp6wfbwU9UJVytdPvOultX3H95IPyqEK1eBPUWtSOpwKMue2UrjWeMPFS0xaIE-mllQMhZ23E2o8Z1oUb1pGDzIKGJZs155WErdBZIePcn217rjZBA8ruS3DSpxlovaJ79gjt27XgULWC6Izw=w640-h497" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Some of these we can clear up quickly. Based on first preference votes, and likely preference allocations, we can add the following seats to the Coalition, bringing the Coalition to 56<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Wannon</b> will be retained by the Coalition. <br /></li><li><b>Maranoa</b> is on the list above because of a TCP realignment. It will go to the Coalition.</li><li><b>Wannon</b> is on the list above because of a TCP realignment. It will go to the Coalition.</li><li><b>Bradfield</b>, similarly, will be retained by the Coalition.</li><li><b>Calare</b> will be retained by the Coalition.</li><li><b>Hinkler</b> will be retained by the Coalition </li><li><b>Grey</b> should be held by the Coalition </li><li><b>Casey</b> should be retained by the Coalition</li><li><b>Moore</b> should be retained by the Coalition </li><li><b>Menzies</b> should be retained by the Coalition<br /></li></ul><p>We can add the following seats to Labor, bringing the Labor total to 75<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Canberra</b> will be retained by Labor</li><li><b>Gelibrand</b> will be retained by Labor</li><li><b>Lingiari</b> will be retained by Labor</li><li><b>Benelong</b> should be won by Labor <br /></li></ul><p> And we can these seats to the cross-bench, bringing its total to 14.<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>No-one doubts that <b>Melbourne</b> will be won by the Greens</li><li>The Greens are well placed to win <b>Griffith</b></li></ul>From here the landscape is a little less clear. The Coalition may pick up these two seats bringing them to 58 seats.<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Bass</b> is a possible Coalition win, but if not this will go to Labor.</li><li><b>Sturt</b> is a possible Coalition win, but otherwise it will go to Labor<br /></li></ul><p>Labor are in the running to win one more seat, bringing their total to 76 seats.<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li> Labor is ahead in <b>Lyons</b>, but if not this will go to the Coalition.<br /></li></ul><p>The Greens are in the running to pick one more seat, bringing the cross-bench to 15 seats. <br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The Greens look ahead in <b>Brisbane</b>, if not Labor will win this seat. <br /></li></ul><p>Unknown</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Gilmore</b> is just too close to speculate (but it is between the Coalition and Labor)</li><li><b>Deakin</b> is just too close to speculate (but it is between the Coalition and Labor)</li></ul><p>In summary, the likely outcome is:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Labor is likely to win 76 seats (could get as high as 78 or 79)</li><li>The Coalition are likely to get 58 seats (could get as high as 60 seats).</li><li>The cross-bench is likely to win 15 seats. <br /></li></ul>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-19830734645767975592022-05-23T22:05:00.010+10:002022-05-24T08:11:56.813+10:00An early look at swings<p>With the count now approach 75% complete, any look at swings is subject to further change, nonetheless I thought it worthwhile to get a sense of what happened where.</p><p>In terms of the two-party preferred (2pp) vote, labor gained in all states except Tasmania. But note this is an early and incomplete count. The 2pp count is not as progressed as the first preference counts, nor the two-candidate preferred (2cp) counts. And the 2pp counts have not commenced in something like 26 seats. For each state they are only 50 to 60 per cent complete, with the count completion provided on the left hand side of this chart.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg69WrNQqve19pQ_bw7NAggttcQCwiEMOP0mVViKUFz4mRUBn3HWnCwjynxCHpkDkGlySNGpZ9Pt3o5D0Hv-hrd6WTZWuVTyGr8pk7Nu4uSbtOxrPMLviouLeaWwpR1DSp2KlupyzIhsiI7pu8qJjDkW3NaoUyU9sU1OClRJzPFMrvavmcLp9qnj1zlpA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="900" data-original-width="2700" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg69WrNQqve19pQ_bw7NAggttcQCwiEMOP0mVViKUFz4mRUBn3HWnCwjynxCHpkDkGlySNGpZ9Pt3o5D0Hv-hrd6WTZWuVTyGr8pk7Nu4uSbtOxrPMLviouLeaWwpR1DSp2KlupyzIhsiI7pu8qJjDkW3NaoUyU9sU1OClRJzPFMrvavmcLp9qnj1zlpA=w640-h214" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>With the first preference votes for the Greens, the Greens improved their overall performance in every state.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiaZhoBGPvA8KsMG6rF01avwbg_Kj53kjaEmc0YseylRMzOaVnBs0UZVSN6wmBHHP3ZbjeAAdhxhdTgdcH74jsc4RztOI4br1goFMAZvwRNqz7g60W5F3SaXAMtWPvGDJAowqhEotM-GdTNK2Iw0irYls7o4CdwDPBpAE8FUJVn1C29UZmSAOMzc9pQsA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="2700" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiaZhoBGPvA8KsMG6rF01avwbg_Kj53kjaEmc0YseylRMzOaVnBs0UZVSN6wmBHHP3ZbjeAAdhxhdTgdcH74jsc4RztOI4br1goFMAZvwRNqz7g60W5F3SaXAMtWPvGDJAowqhEotM-GdTNK2Iw0irYls7o4CdwDPBpAE8FUJVn1C29UZmSAOMzc9pQsA=w640-h214" width="640" /></a></p><p></p><p>The Coalition experienced a first-preference swing against it in every state.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhGe8Ym_6U13Jk2UakhwvuPAlHwUp0wZ8dyA017OkhOlE_Xd2tkg7ZLQVg35K5tjRQfhZsFuRtTYKSMOWwHNDfxb79cRLFTCAB5wOOyqm7hpYSBBTkL79zozrOSCnsWFRSorwbDiTGfcOKYXxQ_SIHBSslmHFmoy9peBbzFkus7TVJ3ZnsA__PJY8-UJA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="2700" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhGe8Ym_6U13Jk2UakhwvuPAlHwUp0wZ8dyA017OkhOlE_Xd2tkg7ZLQVg35K5tjRQfhZsFuRtTYKSMOWwHNDfxb79cRLFTCAB5wOOyqm7hpYSBBTkL79zozrOSCnsWFRSorwbDiTGfcOKYXxQ_SIHBSslmHFmoy9peBbzFkus7TVJ3ZnsA__PJY8-UJA=w640-h214" width="640" /></a></p><p>Labor had a mixed performance, with three states increasing Labor's first preference share, and 5 states reducing it.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhYEk1gm7rB2c6FJrMQkAjTXxyuDkLmVYz8Tesi_UV-7CnxJujvYIZzHrfr-3YH2BsDbMTuR_RF8CeFqubyih8kyGWq7WD2K6fQCk7Y3dnPxwZwKdKAFUs2cMnUcqOulrYAMDxqw-akVMen07Svp8AaDGugoo7-LPSMm7EzNHu6zBabnMf0OEZ1okmBYg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="900" data-original-width="2700" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhYEk1gm7rB2c6FJrMQkAjTXxyuDkLmVYz8Tesi_UV-7CnxJujvYIZzHrfr-3YH2BsDbMTuR_RF8CeFqubyih8kyGWq7WD2K6fQCk7Y3dnPxwZwKdKAFUs2cMnUcqOulrYAMDxqw-akVMen07Svp8AaDGugoo7-LPSMm7EzNHu6zBabnMf0OEZ1okmBYg=w640-h214" width="640" /></a></p><p>The United Australia Party managed positive swings in five states and negative swings in three states.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEivZ5mdwUvqAsN3LLHnros1rsE6gdAg72AHOnYtkUWV6MkrcHU1lDszWA9MMt6jZUcIkHP5cTGOdj5VeAh8TpZIxxnU8hy8xNYf9L1kcM6fapQILH1laOdpWhnG3XgJaTg6pzC8VVX5Wt3H6-6wpFdmL6Mpb6kfoNbJ3Jx5jMmamQbeq1gt1GPz_iIXLw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="2700" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEivZ5mdwUvqAsN3LLHnros1rsE6gdAg72AHOnYtkUWV6MkrcHU1lDszWA9MMt6jZUcIkHP5cTGOdj5VeAh8TpZIxxnU8hy8xNYf9L1kcM6fapQILH1laOdpWhnG3XgJaTg6pzC8VVX5Wt3H6-6wpFdmL6Mpb6kfoNbJ3Jx5jMmamQbeq1gt1GPz_iIXLw=w640-h214" width="640" /></a></p><p>One nation had a positive swing in six states and a negative swing in two.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgxP6U1sljwRHNObDruo4905RkpBxvcsYRMWSwQ7jGJuWlrxZtoh5UpIV7PeAdKUVhu2-VidxmRjaer_NyOk2yheLhadCkB-jqsHc6b5WXl5ZTiWrlA3Iol2SNxp2uX7igzbQwjrKx0VIzOJ9GjH9voj42VM1f2vz_3Dx4eQHzzRwQCvW6ZGXtK6E983w" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="2700" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgxP6U1sljwRHNObDruo4905RkpBxvcsYRMWSwQ7jGJuWlrxZtoh5UpIV7PeAdKUVhu2-VidxmRjaer_NyOk2yheLhadCkB-jqsHc6b5WXl5ZTiWrlA3Iol2SNxp2uX7igzbQwjrKx0VIzOJ9GjH9voj42VM1f2vz_3Dx4eQHzzRwQCvW6ZGXtK6E983w=w640-h214" width="640" /></a></p><p>Everyone else (which includes the independents) had a positive swing in six states and a negative swing in two.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh4GixKpfwLKQHtasFVnHCqmifABpc-Lq1wf6zj35DY8oL1C_c-I0W9tqAu_EQEyCHiyOoO7bAgifkso2ZZGy97qTXN_sSf56GiWIuUt1ElHfu8pz9I2ooVnxQmkTwF9O5-wJbDJuK4033U4tHnmwwt6YwxyvfpqdqGqLt3nrxBydzMxO3c8oOMueiURg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="2700" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh4GixKpfwLKQHtasFVnHCqmifABpc-Lq1wf6zj35DY8oL1C_c-I0W9tqAu_EQEyCHiyOoO7bAgifkso2ZZGy97qTXN_sSf56GiWIuUt1ElHfu8pz9I2ooVnxQmkTwF9O5-wJbDJuK4033U4tHnmwwt6YwxyvfpqdqGqLt3nrxBydzMxO3c8oOMueiURg=w640-h214" width="640" /></a><br /><br /></p>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-49140910525200702552022-05-22T18:01:00.006+10:002022-06-25T11:56:43.696+10:00Did we have a polling fail in 2022<p>Although the count is only two thirds completed, we can start to look at how the final polls before the 2022 Australian Federal Election compared with the 95 per cent margin of error your would expect from random sample opinion polling. <u><b>Note</b></u>: <a href="https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2022/06/poll-performance-2022-australian.html">I updated this post when the election count was completed</a>.<br /></p><p></p><p><u><b>Headline</b></u>: While the two-party preferred (2pp) estimates from the pollster's final polls this election look good, all of the pollsters had some struggles when it came to the estimating the primary vote shares for the parties. Pollsters particularly had challenges with Labor's primary vote, the vote for the United Australia Party and the vote for Others.</p><p>In each of the charts below we have looked at whether to polls individually or collectively over or under-estimated the vote share seen so far in the 2022 Election. </p><p>To provide a benchmark for assessing the polls, I have also calculated the 95 per cent confidence interval based on the reported sample size on Wikipedia. </p><p><u><b>Caveats</b></u>: First, the error bars in the following charts were calculated from the headline reported sample size, not the
effective sample size reported by the pollster as a consequence of
stratification and weighting. Second, these results are likely to change somewhat between now and when the count has been completed.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhBQ_hx2SUVh2J-eaU9dD5nc7BbFiIXEbBcTUDX__evOJ07aS-2LXQ-i0st_AV1BM7NjSqb369YiHyq-HSuO7TnMcJRFwryNdwOJVnBv5YkTQiFxnzcSiynlmeW8iQqHZScjZX-3IFNZ2RzFvNQMTxhlD_Y1BAeDSc3JN-iGgN-Rjs49LIiDJ1r72OrfA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhBQ_hx2SUVh2J-eaU9dD5nc7BbFiIXEbBcTUDX__evOJ07aS-2LXQ-i0st_AV1BM7NjSqb369YiHyq-HSuO7TnMcJRFwryNdwOJVnBv5YkTQiFxnzcSiynlmeW8iQqHZScjZX-3IFNZ2RzFvNQMTxhlD_Y1BAeDSc3JN-iGgN-Rjs49LIiDJ1r72OrfA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjQRsj0Km7HXR6F_4K1arD1SWl-xyCUzChpqlPKYGCtRJcLrQ-yi2ubBuEXo2HJZWsivRYdO7EN4YVp0XZKHMwf1GiAgGTAUqF2r1YjY8XUv9KYnQ6iZ3YLn1OZDFA63gB7YN7a8GCgygCzw8OPQBtSovE0PncI01o63pYuV4c0hPckiYVVW98c2xHIfA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjQRsj0Km7HXR6F_4K1arD1SWl-xyCUzChpqlPKYGCtRJcLrQ-yi2ubBuEXo2HJZWsivRYdO7EN4YVp0XZKHMwf1GiAgGTAUqF2r1YjY8XUv9KYnQ6iZ3YLn1OZDFA63gB7YN7a8GCgygCzw8OPQBtSovE0PncI01o63pYuV4c0hPckiYVVW98c2xHIfA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEheZ_l84Q0h55z4nx894OvD1rKhzb0xtjs6SrEEMAOXm40bfW3WJjseihgc2zOv5KbWLw1wz9d9xIx_twdrS34AnP0pIObSoOtQmzD8QzNr5H_5C_B4AL0dz_YcOIiGzSU2xcfYFe0Zvn9ciNKzYkRcvMbF5gG93kmyCDZNRti6ffSgl-oDHY1_0S-_mg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEheZ_l84Q0h55z4nx894OvD1rKhzb0xtjs6SrEEMAOXm40bfW3WJjseihgc2zOv5KbWLw1wz9d9xIx_twdrS34AnP0pIObSoOtQmzD8QzNr5H_5C_B4AL0dz_YcOIiGzSU2xcfYFe0Zvn9ciNKzYkRcvMbF5gG93kmyCDZNRti6ffSgl-oDHY1_0S-_mg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj9pB7Cg9l7qorzihwwZrH0BqO141rqNB-llzgplSANHjQxddeExY2Owc4r_7tJkWmlxwu-DvRPyvephf41R4qdgesH4-OSfCDBP8TvO2AZHkQuZuICVVQlJzRKWS_bdXh0XKnQV5bvBZSWsosYzPgvwTcvQsa9Tv9hOIurrAZfECz_YG-8VZosuPKU2A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj9pB7Cg9l7qorzihwwZrH0BqO141rqNB-llzgplSANHjQxddeExY2Owc4r_7tJkWmlxwu-DvRPyvephf41R4qdgesH4-OSfCDBP8TvO2AZHkQuZuICVVQlJzRKWS_bdXh0XKnQV5bvBZSWsosYzPgvwTcvQsa9Tv9hOIurrAZfECz_YG-8VZosuPKU2A=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhnIxgnRZshUB6OlgYEUTMz4ufa1p0lfLpZntmNRNJdtT8YQIVW6t6jVqkHpbaXzzTtqLM17qF4JeC_h3UCeORejhEkDpWB1IC_SvoPaWxdkehjWchm8883mfmonXY2bPJ7lVzqCgCLOejt0aWIR9Y5LfdibszMonb-paRXg_1gYaSqbYKH_NdZAE1Frw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhnIxgnRZshUB6OlgYEUTMz4ufa1p0lfLpZntmNRNJdtT8YQIVW6t6jVqkHpbaXzzTtqLM17qF4JeC_h3UCeORejhEkDpWB1IC_SvoPaWxdkehjWchm8883mfmonXY2bPJ7lVzqCgCLOejt0aWIR9Y5LfdibszMonb-paRXg_1gYaSqbYKH_NdZAE1Frw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCiC4rdrFeZE6nm2o3BFk4qoJkOzSZnO_PBIqYVfK0srdqm4NH5zbJgHN8zBJMOfzxcGTNQZNNuQk9PrwJ4SWS0nzFSsB6b70SgeUCi3ppB_2203dfF0KuUHEm8RIOw_R0qL9X7awlLePOP1yrgw1l9d845ediHxNWwekTqACcTjoj2TjbPIk-55ZCrg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCiC4rdrFeZE6nm2o3BFk4qoJkOzSZnO_PBIqYVfK0srdqm4NH5zbJgHN8zBJMOfzxcGTNQZNNuQk9PrwJ4SWS0nzFSsB6b70SgeUCi3ppB_2203dfF0KuUHEm8RIOw_R0qL9X7awlLePOP1yrgw1l9d845ediHxNWwekTqACcTjoj2TjbPIk-55ZCrg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjsxCdDgCoRQeWQlj0uqBFYDfLEXkqJ3pBPrH87sedIb2Dq06TH5VLRmWN6Pfyd0EQ2xqgmy0CZCgkhpw6bHgOXJkr6_jVNqTA4N3T1i2slCAE28cpHMkss2imKFEbTLQDJ8W8VN0ZcDv808Ln9zzIBkb--Uj8X263LXPnnFUuK6dY4kjB1zRHMcPNqCA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjsxCdDgCoRQeWQlj0uqBFYDfLEXkqJ3pBPrH87sedIb2Dq06TH5VLRmWN6Pfyd0EQ2xqgmy0CZCgkhpw6bHgOXJkr6_jVNqTA4N3T1i2slCAE28cpHMkss2imKFEbTLQDJ8W8VN0ZcDv808Ln9zzIBkb--Uj8X263LXPnnFUuK6dY4kjB1zRHMcPNqCA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-89130495776262898102022-05-22T14:08:00.004+10:002022-05-22T18:26:02.323+10:00Initial reflections on the election<p>Well that was a little unusual. And while it is still early in the count, we can make some observations. </p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>First, the election saw a huge repudiation of the Coalition under Scott Morrison in all states but Tasmania, but only a lukewarm embrace for Labor in all states but Western Australia. If labor gets to majority government it will be because of its superlative performance in Western Australia. </li><li>Second we saw Labor struggling to convert a respectable two-party preferred vote of around 52.4 per cent into a majority of seats in the House. The Labor primary vote is very low by historical standards, currently at 32.8 per cent. I can remember a time when the conventional wisdom was that Labor could not win with a primary vote below 40 per cent. </li><li>Third, the Greens and green-leaning independents did stunningly well in many city based Coalition seats. It is primarily in wealthy urban areas that the Coalition has lost many of its traditional heartland seats. This loss of their heartland could make it very hard for the Coalition to return to majority government for a number of election cycles. <br /></li></ul><p>In addition to retaining <b>Warringah</b> (NSW), <b>Indi</b> (Vic), <b>and Clark</b> (Tas), it looks like independents have picked up 7 seats, with a further 1 seat still a possibility. Likely gains include <b>Kooyong</b> (Vic), <b>Flowler</b> (NSW, a Labor loss), <b>Curtin</b> (WA), <b>North Sydney</b> (NSW), <b>Goldstein</b> (Vic), <b>Wentworth</b> (NSW), <b>Mackellar</b> (NSW), The seat where an independent is still a possibility is <b>Cowper</b> (NSW).</p><p>In addition to retaining <b>Melbourne</b> (Vic) the Greens look well placed in <b>Ryan</b> (Qld, a former Coalition seat) and <b>Griffith</b> (Qld, a former Labor seat). The Greens are still in the race in <b>Richmond</b> (NSW, Labor), <b>Brisbane</b> (Qld, a former Coalition seat) and possibly <b>Macnamara</b> (Vic).</p><p>The one-seat, minor parties in <b>Mayo</b> (SA, Sharkie) and <b>Kennedy</b> (Qld, Katter) will be returned. </p><p>The new parliament could see the cross bench expand from 6 to at least 13 and possibly as high as 18. <br /></p>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-52006852482844921042022-05-21T12:05:00.004+10:002022-05-21T13:10:48.670+10:00The seats to watch at your 2022 election party<p>I know, you are busy, and it is too hard to get your head around the intricacies of 151 electorates. But here’s the secret: Most seats in the Australian Parliament are unlikely to change hands. This is my pick of the seats you should keep an eye on. By just watching a few seats, and ticking them off as they are decided, you should be able to get a good idea who is winning early in the evening. </p><p></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">The baseline</h3><p>The Australian Parliament has 151 seats. For majority government a party needs to win 76 seats. In the most recent parliament, the Coalition had 77 seats. Coming into the election (with seat boundary changes) it has a notional 76 seats. Similarly, while Labor had 68 seats in the last Parliament, coming into the election it has a notional 69 seats. And there were 6 seats for the crossbench.</p><p>The headline message is that Labor must win seven additional seats to achieve majority government, without losing any of its existing seats to the Greens on its left flank, or the Coalition on the right.<br /><br />The Coalition cannot afford to lose any seats if it is to retain majority government. The Coalition faces tough fights from Labor, which is well ahead in the published opinion polls. It also faces challenges from the (so called) Teal independents in several inner-city seats.<br /><br />If neither the Coalition nor the Labor Party can achieve majority government, one of these parties will need to negotiate with the crossbench for their support before that party can form government. This process last happened in 2010, and it took 17 days after the election before the Government was settled.<br /><br />Most pundits expect all six of the existing crossbench seats will be retained by their current occupants. Many pundits believe there is a reasonable prospect of the crossbench being increased at the 2022 election.<br /></p><h3>The seven (or more) seats Labor would be looking to win</h3><p>Note: if a big swing against the Coalition occurs, many more seats would be won by Labor. This list should give you a sense on Saturday night as to whether Labor can form majority government or not.</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Bass</b> (Tas) – Coalition held – 0.4% -</li><li><b>Chisholm</b> (Vic) – Coalition held – 0.5%</li><li><b>Boothby</b> (SA) – Coalition held – 1.4%</li><li><b>Higgins</b> (Vic) – Coalition held – 2.6% – the Greens also have a slim chance with this seat</li><li><b>Braddon</b> (Tas) – Coalition held – 3.1%</li><li><b>Reid</b> (NSW) – Coalition held – 3.2%</li><li><b>Swan</b> (WA) – Coalition held – 3.2%</li><li><b>Longman</b> (Qld) – Coalition held 3.3%</li><li><b>Leichardt</b> (Qld) – Coalition held – 4.2%</li><li><b>Robertson</b> (NSW) – Coalition held - 4.2%</li><li><b>Casey</b> (Vic) – Coalition held – 4.6%</li><li><b>Dickson</b> (Qld) – Coalition held -4.6%</li><li><b>Deakin</b> (Vic) – Coalition held – 4.7%</li><li><b>Lindsay</b> (NSW) – Coalition held – 5.0%</li><li><b>La Trobe</b> (Vic) – Coalition held – 5.1%</li><li><b>Pearce</b> (WA) – Coalition held – 5.2%</li></ul><p style="text-align: left;"></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">The seats Labor needs to hold on to (but also see Green possible wins below)</h3><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Macquarie</b> (NSW) – Labor held – 0.2%</li><li><b>Lilley</b> (Qld) – Labor held – 0.6%</li><li><b>Cowan</b> (WA) – Labor held – 0.9%</li><li><b>Eden-Monaro</b> (NSW) – Labor held – 0.9%</li><li><b>Corangamite</b> (Vic) – Labor held – 1.1%</li><li><b>Blair</b> (Qld) – Labor Held – 1.2%</li><li><b>Hunter</b> (NSW) – Labor Held – 3.0% – Fitzgibbon has retired – a coal seat</li></ul><h3 style="text-align: left;">Where independents have some chance of picking up another seat from the Coalition</h3><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Goldstein</b> (Vic) – Coalition held – 7.8% – Tim Wilson is the incumbent and Zoe Daniels is the independent challenger</li><li><b>Kooyong</b> (Vic) – Coalition held – 6.4% – Josh Frydenberg is the incumbent and Monique Ryan is the independent challenger</li><li><b>Wentworth</b> (NSW) – Coalition held – 1.3% (TCP vs Ind.) – Dave Sharma is the incumbent and Allegra Spender is the challenger</li><li><b>North Sydney</b> (NSW) – Coalition held – 9.3% - Trent Zimmerman is the incumbent and Kylie Tink is the challenger</li><li><b>Curtin</b> (WA) – Coalition held – 13.9% – Celia Hammond is the incumbent and Kate Chaney is the challenger</li><li><b>Nicholls</b> (Vic) – Coalition Held – 20.0% – Because the former incumbent retired, Nichols is a rare three-way contest between Steven Brooks (Liberal), Sam Birrell (National) and Rob Priestly (independent)</li></ul><h3 style="text-align: left;">Where the Greens have some chance of picking up another seat</h3><p style="text-align: left;">While I think an additional Green seat is semi-unlikely, they may prove competitive in one of these seats.<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Brisbane</b> (Qld) – Coalition held – 4.9%</li><li><b>Ryan</b> (Qld) – Coalition held – 6.0%</li><li><b>Griffith</b> (Qld) – Labor held – 2.9%</li><li><b>Macnamara</b> (Vic) – Labor held – 4.9%</li><li><b>Wills</b> (Vic) – Labor held – 8.2% (TCP vs Green)</li></ul><p style="text-align: left;"><b>Links to useful sites</b></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-election-2022/">The ABC Election Site</a></li><li><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/pendulum">The ABC election pendulum</a><br /></li><li><a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/">The Australian Electoral Commission</a></li></ul><p style="text-align: left;"> <br /></p>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-55032721553066593742022-05-20T22:13:00.012+10:002022-05-20T22:51:14.962+10:002022 Final Polls and Forecast<p>Newspoll has just landed with a published two-party preferred (2pp) estimate of 53 to 47 per cent for Labor. This completes the polls for the 2022 Australian Federal Election. Rather than use published 2pp estimates, I calculate my own 2pp estimate for each pollster using the pollster's primary vote estimates and the preference flows from the previous election. May calculations for the latest polls are as follows. <br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhcx4-3ZjeRsCvQ4MC7VA0RQSJTehRDeGjx2YKt0domqrmU9bAUze9sKoqP8PtvKEbOagmNBD-aY64nVwp3iWhG0CmPREXbpwL1iwGfsXm7yMKBbpSXjZf_gA1TvOs1Jn15fYjOv_WilWnKqViJi2I4qugjKmJHg1d5KRgMgIlMJ020T9bm51km0HZiVw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="358" data-original-width="1176" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhcx4-3ZjeRsCvQ4MC7VA0RQSJTehRDeGjx2YKt0domqrmU9bAUze9sKoqP8PtvKEbOagmNBD-aY64nVwp3iWhG0CmPREXbpwL1iwGfsXm7yMKBbpSXjZf_gA1TvOs1Jn15fYjOv_WilWnKqViJi2I4qugjKmJHg1d5KRgMgIlMJ020T9bm51km0HZiVw=w640-h194" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>This represents a small narrowing for Newspoll over the previous poll in the series. More generally we can see that the polls have tightened over the past 3 months. <br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEisMQGhfCq3Wh-aArSj8fXeHNZNn2td-GftYduH1W_wKE_hcNU6rh_3h39UMujxBrJ0VEZQPTsNlLHgr4mnGN_rJ62TRDUSQdp5HHBmx_upfvofRZpqhE0pEMfd8h_35UY39a7qi3yW8beI1GY4GWV0e6HSygAlrskJ6Mch-AHGZ6MIfB7DZw8HsAW1gg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEisMQGhfCq3Wh-aArSj8fXeHNZNn2td-GftYduH1W_wKE_hcNU6rh_3h39UMujxBrJ0VEZQPTsNlLHgr4mnGN_rJ62TRDUSQdp5HHBmx_upfvofRZpqhE0pEMfd8h_35UY39a7qi3yW8beI1GY4GWV0e6HSygAlrskJ6Mch-AHGZ6MIfB7DZw8HsAW1gg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgXGSzj0vYWjZhjWzqYODbQ7eoKKrZQCW6gnNDXMCDweUCVDWIFIuTS8z3K5KJu76SjeWZuD5qohY_OO8bRMY6hSs6H3KVZX15QYUt0ehjs2TLWiD-B9s_D3JI7s840Q6Tvf_wjLgRbMd_NC-J352sAOBGX5qsAekMnHuYKHC7EHJNN1gk2EnYfKa8JkA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgXGSzj0vYWjZhjWzqYODbQ7eoKKrZQCW6gnNDXMCDweUCVDWIFIuTS8z3K5KJu76SjeWZuD5qohY_OO8bRMY6hSs6H3KVZX15QYUt0ehjs2TLWiD-B9s_D3JI7s840Q6Tvf_wjLgRbMd_NC-J352sAOBGX5qsAekMnHuYKHC7EHJNN1gk2EnYfKa8JkA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>The average 2pp estimate for the Coalition over the six polls highlighted above is 47.1
per cent. If this was repeated at the election tomorrow, almost
certainly it would be a large win for an incoming Labor government. However, our experience with the 2019 election, and the substantial polling failure at that election urges caution. </p><p>When I look at all elections since 1983, I note that the polls have been more likely to be incorrect when they have Labor in front. Adjusting for the historic weakness in the polls, I expect Labor to attract something like 51.1 per cent of the 2pp vote at tomorrow's election. In terms of a highest density interval (analogous to a Bayesian confidence interval), I have labor with a 94 per cent probability that its 2pp election result will be between 48.3 per cent and 53.8 per cent. I expect the Coalition will achieve something like 48.9 per cent of the 2pp vote share. I have the Coalition's 94 per cent HDI in the range from 46.2 to 51.7 per cent. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjYocTDb3OHL0-oelZ8w7wKjOW0TP0hOaqWNA3i3gdTCKeyiouykqDdDypH4KZ1GptZvEGvh-PEytBMq_TNscK9xxsVeToPmiJPz2Uc-BTE9dWlBJTeeMKhU8iLLbwvmEreNoMMpLBx1YE85YvSes0kwapjBKRNKRqvUEe60oLtjpCkCklJofIDAoBS6g" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjYocTDb3OHL0-oelZ8w7wKjOW0TP0hOaqWNA3i3gdTCKeyiouykqDdDypH4KZ1GptZvEGvh-PEytBMq_TNscK9xxsVeToPmiJPz2Uc-BTE9dWlBJTeeMKhU8iLLbwvmEreNoMMpLBx1YE85YvSes0kwapjBKRNKRqvUEe60oLtjpCkCklJofIDAoBS6g=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiaZfboGHdM2udZ9G3K7aHqMRnyE5yR_6d3l-jWtluqSkymaVUqA7ReTG2P4l6UGbNAmzyMHZcAi6JdQPnmR_rCLw9PN9w_z0SjthrWcDpwL2FbGJSL_irohhapDFK8JOZmXsHy1cyDbEbscSd0YUvq0VqzuNg9Rks2HRwACwfHDRuHm8ITkSbqqjpNbA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiaZfboGHdM2udZ9G3K7aHqMRnyE5yR_6d3l-jWtluqSkymaVUqA7ReTG2P4l6UGbNAmzyMHZcAi6JdQPnmR_rCLw9PN9w_z0SjthrWcDpwL2FbGJSL_irohhapDFK8JOZmXsHy1cyDbEbscSd0YUvq0VqzuNg9Rks2HRwACwfHDRuHm8ITkSbqqjpNbA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />The observation about the polls comes from a regression. I have now cross checked this regression as calculated in the Bayesian model (using Student's t distribution) with a simpler Gaussian regression from classical statistics over the same domain. The results are very close.<br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhTicndjaIsC8VEsXBB-cUU0PQiSZtBB9GzCuAmv-D7gaawyKDDaQuJMRdrwZUpZvcoaUUqKZkv2t9ooniDxxLYE2XCX-1gSbEULK73FAq8jRFrwCdmnJcqCI9cJJdW7wMhmSgAbWrQncZDquoSseGYr3h683SQhNJhmUTxo1K51iDLAVauESwwebvPmw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhTicndjaIsC8VEsXBB-cUU0PQiSZtBB9GzCuAmv-D7gaawyKDDaQuJMRdrwZUpZvcoaUUqKZkv2t9ooniDxxLYE2XCX-1gSbEULK73FAq8jRFrwCdmnJcqCI9cJJdW7wMhmSgAbWrQncZDquoSseGYr3h683SQhNJhmUTxo1K51iDLAVauESwwebvPmw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhVH-GRa44MI71Rjt4RLxxFY66uhnQtZo1p9DNQV2ndwIUTpZTy356HHqBUJxAUMwus8NgEl6Pt6AfyDz1tEcGcsCK-b_C47HSY_hfSaJ4dUSFgJqjfu42uevNaN0W3d51SifP3eU-V2xQLPV_Oin4jw0NAKmndXquvpF35RkXTX8VYGgqd2iHRnD7n4g" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhVH-GRa44MI71Rjt4RLxxFY66uhnQtZo1p9DNQV2ndwIUTpZTy356HHqBUJxAUMwus8NgEl6Pt6AfyDz1tEcGcsCK-b_C47HSY_hfSaJ4dUSFgJqjfu42uevNaN0W3d51SifP3eU-V2xQLPV_Oin4jw0NAKmndXquvpF35RkXTX8VYGgqd2iHRnD7n4g=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>The other really interesting question this election is how many independents and minor party representatives will be elected. The polling estimate for primary votes for non-Liberal/Labor candidates is 29.1 per cent, up from 25.2 per cent in 2019. Translating the possible increase in primary votes to seats for independents is something that I have found difficult to model, and I suspect my most likely projection of 7 seats (an increase of 1) is an under estimate. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjmF8uVfgYkqMYUjtfkns3SGBFCT12BBjJMPIvWXIXpi_Q311coqz-A-RpdLXNiM8xu7trlDY0xn71MaKBqBvoD3muIv9PyrzYsZYlcPKloDG7btQuV0nY4UfjP9sLB4rRGnMFAYu_HgG3U-zgZgw4juIrS4HgLTx5M4tjrS9wGYDzW9gkA03HLIlhGyA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjmF8uVfgYkqMYUjtfkns3SGBFCT12BBjJMPIvWXIXpi_Q311coqz-A-RpdLXNiM8xu7trlDY0xn71MaKBqBvoD3muIv9PyrzYsZYlcPKloDG7btQuV0nY4UfjP9sLB4rRGnMFAYu_HgG3U-zgZgw4juIrS4HgLTx5M4tjrS9wGYDzW9gkA03HLIlhGyA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi70WQR24VgitIAiiJB_Z9Fq6hiQDup6ukYwQbCc_DoQpTdJPu9GXmOwn1qJowxB3TSH_W8JSAzO_9n9yz_JzvYJxC1C6yrF0xM0wmeKQuxYaOA657kWv3rnXZ1SgkUc1M5hT2C-SsyXljgOgnoTR1MqYYmxbtfT-DudOiuo-KYQfL7Rlvt2SWultD8eQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi70WQR24VgitIAiiJB_Z9Fq6hiQDup6ukYwQbCc_DoQpTdJPu9GXmOwn1qJowxB3TSH_W8JSAzO_9n9yz_JzvYJxC1C6yrF0xM0wmeKQuxYaOA657kWv3rnXZ1SgkUc1M5hT2C-SsyXljgOgnoTR1MqYYmxbtfT-DudOiuo-KYQfL7Rlvt2SWultD8eQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />Agsin this is based on a regression, which I have now cross checked between the Bayesian model and a regression from classical statistics.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiGVWmIehB2OmHh0m8bh69QUZAIo-AX8mujbizyXQO6AT-v6dXpyR7zByS_f1U1vDPu0sveM-h7sGfDVCT-kwN6jnIdwXbdB1Weu4SYA-nyMuNvCE1n9xrA9LI5rWFuJypj7DJQKBrC2f-lAnH4Gq25EWCPjsUC7TrMgx2_ZYnWY7-uBI3V0bnhbxodog" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiGVWmIehB2OmHh0m8bh69QUZAIo-AX8mujbizyXQO6AT-v6dXpyR7zByS_f1U1vDPu0sveM-h7sGfDVCT-kwN6jnIdwXbdB1Weu4SYA-nyMuNvCE1n9xrA9LI5rWFuJypj7DJQKBrC2f-lAnH4Gq25EWCPjsUC7TrMgx2_ZYnWY7-uBI3V0bnhbxodog=w640-h320" width="640" /></a><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjpAcWaBOQ6cEEjUexIQ-hXRF1cmh69BrrI-8mFkuZds2fMRYPlNTuelksjnGuv4nAsBsZdSXtj3exqverqPcvi83N3Um_1DIowt4ZypuZveSdgCwPIRd35EI0VMhH5GejwIpmbIsO1S6q6uXkFIZHqkNcfA-qXVrbf7IZymsyI9LxXytoMH-gzIneosA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjpAcWaBOQ6cEEjUexIQ-hXRF1cmh69BrrI-8mFkuZds2fMRYPlNTuelksjnGuv4nAsBsZdSXtj3exqverqPcvi83N3Um_1DIowt4ZypuZveSdgCwPIRd35EI0VMhH5GejwIpmbIsO1S6q6uXkFIZHqkNcfA-qXVrbf7IZymsyI9LxXytoMH-gzIneosA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Then I have estimated how many seats both major parties would win if there
were no minor parties. I have then adjusted for the minor parties.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjmmfS2jM8w6A-aePkSMPqzaaQGmD5o5ZHOgbwd-rO-ncG_aqaZkOduRUH1YX_3da49bfbS4fc0QYbmsoPR0VgyxefiXcuQkV7ukwN8OMUPUv__COnn5Lzq2WnbTo1sYasUl8VJwXf4AlhuuRGL4pRsI05GWJ8Z141QXsd4hXRzBXRrxr_WnPAs532ZUw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjmmfS2jM8w6A-aePkSMPqzaaQGmD5o5ZHOgbwd-rO-ncG_aqaZkOduRUH1YX_3da49bfbS4fc0QYbmsoPR0VgyxefiXcuQkV7ukwN8OMUPUv__COnn5Lzq2WnbTo1sYasUl8VJwXf4AlhuuRGL4pRsI05GWJ8Z141QXsd4hXRzBXRrxr_WnPAs532ZUw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgzNeclXAwrrGB6S3s6oNgt7W8xHiXKFSW9b7_aJ0_fPSAhVfL1yer6BFCcZB8feij65sUxdcVjnvHCa0lBk2_8hu38tzo5vXMKB_73DXcWT8TFkG2rA0vQYN7VCly0vHKwjPFSRe4CIgvKpLbdlRRLtO9QLR6Y1itsdlEuCuUVtJHAoWkUpGQvQQ3Atg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgzNeclXAwrrGB6S3s6oNgt7W8xHiXKFSW9b7_aJ0_fPSAhVfL1yer6BFCcZB8feij65sUxdcVjnvHCa0lBk2_8hu38tzo5vXMKB_73DXcWT8TFkG2rA0vQYN7VCly0vHKwjPFSRe4CIgvKpLbdlRRLtO9QLR6Y1itsdlEuCuUVtJHAoWkUpGQvQQ3Atg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh7N2gpH1lT_LT85-vnxv7teYueTBy-7TLdkJK-zU8JDEUQpZL8I23HMHldWNfAWw3dww6qcaR8aY6UH_OAofc6EOskwaU38WjepyoPwPluPZBDe84Q1rj81_82lmSPCV2R6c-II3WH0xUMR6aJ6WbI_E-gIyz32uGhNnyYgrLEOVsySPPuVYktdxVbJg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh7N2gpH1lT_LT85-vnxv7teYueTBy-7TLdkJK-zU8JDEUQpZL8I23HMHldWNfAWw3dww6qcaR8aY6UH_OAofc6EOskwaU38WjepyoPwPluPZBDe84Q1rj81_82lmSPCV2R6c-II3WH0xUMR6aJ6WbI_E-gIyz32uGhNnyYgrLEOVsySPPuVYktdxVbJg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgALg7YPgt6gFdMRfN8dq1SSjZqvrX8XS2Zk0w6zbgWam9uvVHnQu33CRNjusUhYgsQQXnvduusMgHpdHu7Nir1TGBQ2hepD653VyRz_fO3oMh6Cx7lEQc2ETBAJFSt8nToAMt33zDUTO3n7namJjWLn9coFwa-NgkN0bfIxdGIsMqKhHpLcNgC6BVHJA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgALg7YPgt6gFdMRfN8dq1SSjZqvrX8XS2Zk0w6zbgWam9uvVHnQu33CRNjusUhYgsQQXnvduusMgHpdHu7Nir1TGBQ2hepD653VyRz_fO3oMh6Cx7lEQc2ETBAJFSt8nToAMt33zDUTO3n7namJjWLn9coFwa-NgkN0bfIxdGIsMqKhHpLcNgC6BVHJA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>For completeness, here are the regressions that underpin this calculation.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEih6JNwdE4bvbJYWO-BmG0qSWYp5tUCA5tUm4kYHnH67cA9z-t4t6w4L1gJcZ3ucpVZTwFYMN42-nTaALcIOIWHkjQSTYrV9FKQPvttkDFatePqUWz8kcRqC2v6enjx-GyL9mC2OxUonY2PvSvJVjZaV1vQdPaxTwFGgO-pNlGpurPwaSdWF-YCIEvgGA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEih6JNwdE4bvbJYWO-BmG0qSWYp5tUCA5tUm4kYHnH67cA9z-t4t6w4L1gJcZ3ucpVZTwFYMN42-nTaALcIOIWHkjQSTYrV9FKQPvttkDFatePqUWz8kcRqC2v6enjx-GyL9mC2OxUonY2PvSvJVjZaV1vQdPaxTwFGgO-pNlGpurPwaSdWF-YCIEvgGA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgcNvXirle6db8LxhNOOB6VRYaGxEAzJ7Um6QGXVftA5V6H8ZMtOKDkuPBIisfvuwU5xw1uamLm0VfTMnhABVmp-5eOnMbJk46O_6t2nd4pfnyPQVgtXRqqRcZOLeUcBqFgy4qtE5o9r6gWb34hRGvTD2JzM5vNiVbT1jHEAKWYBZH7diuLEa7b1YkfQw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgcNvXirle6db8LxhNOOB6VRYaGxEAzJ7Um6QGXVftA5V6H8ZMtOKDkuPBIisfvuwU5xw1uamLm0VfTMnhABVmp-5eOnMbJk46O_6t2nd4pfnyPQVgtXRqqRcZOLeUcBqFgy4qtE5o9r6gWb34hRGvTD2JzM5vNiVbT1jHEAKWYBZH7diuLEa7b1YkfQw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>My mean prediction is a Parliament with around 77 Labor seats, 66 Coalition seats and 7 Independents and minor parties. The astute will note that this sums to 150 when there 151 seats in Parliament, welcome to the joys of rounding. <br /></p><p>In terms of the Parliamentary outcome, the model sees a 60.4 per cent probability of a Labor majority government, a 24.7 per cent probability of a hung parliament (where the eventual winner would need to be negotiated with the cross-bench), and a 14.8 per cent probability of a majority Coalition government.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgnpo_GXHBkQgG71DQCjAIMC1yAdSfKAn0wDwN-SKuPiwGE6sh0LbQOuTvp1ZFmY3sxEfTvmxrlXGAa8vE5vnzQ-WmtoCLRysRCTyb-jS5jR6AIpzadiBX3c1lbtiZvp4VOyjjagkSalADyqLG2EvkzzbIBikMwP-siahPlSWo4NP6iuArITkFuy6FcAg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgnpo_GXHBkQgG71DQCjAIMC1yAdSfKAn0wDwN-SKuPiwGE6sh0LbQOuTvp1ZFmY3sxEfTvmxrlXGAa8vE5vnzQ-WmtoCLRysRCTyb-jS5jR6AIpzadiBX3c1lbtiZvp4VOyjjagkSalADyqLG2EvkzzbIBikMwP-siahPlSWo4NP6iuArITkFuy6FcAg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div style="text-align: left;">Please compare this model with what others have done. Have a look at: <a href="https://www.buckleysandnone.com/">Buckley's and None</a>, <a href="https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2022fed/regular/">Australian Election Forecasts</a>, and <a href="https://armariuminterreta.com/projects/2022-australian-federal-election-forecast/">Armarium Interreta</a>.</div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div style="text-align: left;"><h3 style="text-align: left;">The usual caveats </h3></div><div style="text-align: left;"></div><div style="text-align: left;">The estimate of cross-bench seats in Parliament is the weakest element of
this model. My intuition is that there are special factors at play this
election that are likely to see more independents take seats, primarily
from the Coalition. </div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div style="text-align: left;"></div><div style="text-align: left;"></div><div style="text-align: left;">If you want to see how the sausage was made, <a href="https://github.com/bpalmer4/Australian-Federal-Election-2022/blob/main/notebooks/Bayesian%20Election%20Model.ipynb">the Jupyter Notebook is on GitHub</a>. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Finally,
there are no guarantees with this model. It has been hastily put
together in the last week of an election campaign. It has not been
back-tested. It is a macro-level model in nature. So, do<span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"> not blame me if you place bets based on this model and you lose your money</span>, that's your problem. </div>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-45922136153377647472022-05-20T11:01:00.011+10:002022-05-20T13:57:37.520+10:00Poll round-up<p>The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election">polls</a> have tightened in the last week of the 2022 Australian Federal Election campaign (albeit off a set of polls in early May that were more favourable to Labor than the late April polls). </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgxcFcBls1OEYkrAducEWoPjCbwcRHKsq7GsoV3kleS6cuoByez_gQUAPaQPQ2enT6Q-PI2zR-3XKeTm6VLLrsN9RjNMy0v3I7YiPEpFwlANSwpsfzAxD6q9PpvOedoXBpF0jITbs7qDsfw4VPmW2ZcjQVuu9LmI3_XmLG-DNsrnGRfD8CygmmMS-FAVw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgxcFcBls1OEYkrAducEWoPjCbwcRHKsq7GsoV3kleS6cuoByez_gQUAPaQPQ2enT6Q-PI2zR-3XKeTm6VLLrsN9RjNMy0v3I7YiPEpFwlANSwpsfzAxD6q9PpvOedoXBpF0jITbs7qDsfw4VPmW2ZcjQVuu9LmI3_XmLG-DNsrnGRfD8CygmmMS-FAVw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjxudEnvpsFhm6HNjdi6DqilJnE0afrxwGJZk8YeT2ehKHAnK0F3aOTwUo6kyM7wds5VSEKuavm67qPKFYSOJW_arfv-59-gSQkSg1fS6ccALS2ekDtuoa_4bOmr9dYzgC5vGzzjUuy1hM53JPiV4h90CPFelmfbBvbfv0bmn-i7egbtOudaN3Oi0X6qg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjxudEnvpsFhm6HNjdi6DqilJnE0afrxwGJZk8YeT2ehKHAnK0F3aOTwUo6kyM7wds5VSEKuavm67qPKFYSOJW_arfv-59-gSQkSg1fS6ccALS2ekDtuoa_4bOmr9dYzgC5vGzzjUuy1hM53JPiV4h90CPFelmfbBvbfv0bmn-i7egbtOudaN3Oi0X6qg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span><a name='more'></a></span>But some of this tightening is a little perplexing. The Ipsos poll has attributed "undecideds" for the first time this election cycle. Compared with the previous Ipsos poll from early May, which had seven per cent undecided, six of those seven broke for the Coalition in the primary votes and one for Labor. Labor's two party preferred (2pp) vote share according to Ipsos has moved four percentage points from 57 per cent in early-May to 53 per cent in mid-May. Using the primary votes and 2019 preference flows, I have the latest Ipsos poll at 53.6 per cent.</div><p></p><p>Resolve Strategic is the other pollster showing a large movement between its previous poll and its latest poll. In late April, Resolve had Labor's 2pp estimate at 54 per cent. In mid-May it is three percentage points lower at 51 per cent. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEirXbEipLjRDEXV-eooJJD1eI3hHcUuya9DdFkNuMOBVkz3dytLSGB85bnwf-zWRJJ2R2mKn6h926aZI8FzeAlwMUU98V-zTT_eCixERRv7kDvk78KmTlH-hXowmzHN8PQD4K4AQJh9w-zJyXjL_IYIu6CBOSAwSKHSEdaOxyTo0D2Nq4hhWNwb7LIh-Q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEirXbEipLjRDEXV-eooJJD1eI3hHcUuya9DdFkNuMOBVkz3dytLSGB85bnwf-zWRJJ2R2mKn6h926aZI8FzeAlwMUU98V-zTT_eCixERRv7kDvk78KmTlH-hXowmzHN8PQD4K4AQJh9w-zJyXjL_IYIu6CBOSAwSKHSEdaOxyTo0D2Nq4hhWNwb7LIh-Q=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Because of this late movement, I get quite different results when I model the 2022 election based on the last two weeks of polling, or just the last week of polling. From the last two weeks of polling (which includes the Ipsos poll with Labor on 57 per cent) I give Labor a 74 per cent chance of winning the election outright. <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhwHGrCHtfWneWCKXkQrmLumcmr3qhHRVwdsone3vPH_vBMdHfLrmkLhP8niaxRnPMQSlAMWDVxLMT_1J7FGmdVSO76dVwIk149xNVFgzwMCzecmGY6mSA1zK9jeWpcczPJQKTpd-TFvARbYpXqXt7DjDeVURPk5FOZ7B1CZGhIpGUDOH1yk5wIV7zK7A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhwHGrCHtfWneWCKXkQrmLumcmr3qhHRVwdsone3vPH_vBMdHfLrmkLhP8niaxRnPMQSlAMWDVxLMT_1J7FGmdVSO76dVwIk149xNVFgzwMCzecmGY6mSA1zK9jeWpcczPJQKTpd-TFvARbYpXqXt7DjDeVURPk5FOZ7B1CZGhIpGUDOH1yk5wIV7zK7A=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></p><p>From the polls in the final week, I give Labor a 59 per cent probability of winning government outright. The Coalition's probability improves from 7 per cent to 15 per cent.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEilw3EUnhAxGSqc2o9-CtMWLUVBeiqhXVygpJmmch2jCZbn-EK4LVbYJLY0RPPkVGhtZQNRGbnbeDhkDKO_8neOoXhF0S7Rw8NXWaMS9l1X6VY30dQw4ZUQU5ydPm7OU2ldi3cP1J3XnQYfBMYc0EmkLbP_1zosXPR0Qt13bPf_izsCagLxVDGlq2t4-A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEilw3EUnhAxGSqc2o9-CtMWLUVBeiqhXVygpJmmch2jCZbn-EK4LVbYJLY0RPPkVGhtZQNRGbnbeDhkDKO_8neOoXhF0S7Rw8NXWaMS9l1X6VY30dQw4ZUQU5ydPm7OU2ldi3cP1J3XnQYfBMYc0EmkLbP_1zosXPR0Qt13bPf_izsCagLxVDGlq2t4-A=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Let's go through the detail of each of these runs (on the exact same model) in some detail.</p><p> </p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Polls over the past 14 days</h3><p>We start with the regression for converting the poll mean into an election outcome. In this step we convert the 14 day 2pp poll mean for the Coalition of 46.4 per cent to an election outcome of 48.4 per cent.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5G0vO54ghAv35N6PPETecbKhByFanPvKn_WXExdZuNBYLpoJhPpnnLtQEnCqK8zy-BDRoeTgD5nFx0UT7uJhGPLGubUYL5IOynW_QkyUzqKUD7yB1PnktzgDahq2TkXEoIEu8JOyPeM-71pBxCXftjWTbg5EmLSlnLK6aFZeo96TK4UioiepbEhtsvA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5G0vO54ghAv35N6PPETecbKhByFanPvKn_WXExdZuNBYLpoJhPpnnLtQEnCqK8zy-BDRoeTgD5nFx0UT7uJhGPLGubUYL5IOynW_QkyUzqKUD7yB1PnktzgDahq2TkXEoIEu8JOyPeM-71pBxCXftjWTbg5EmLSlnLK6aFZeo96TK4UioiepbEhtsvA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhf83k7vqP1obqboNHanuwOJKGJEUx7kCm3wP47QOLyqY0JvW0Ho0Z4r1ayeZfA0yiCwUEN5OO80EoioCk1NwOAiGGWFhT8S-FXSxgKlYyK850Lp6OALtQRs918R_CMqPNJdSpFOg_T8EJTY06w4xClbLjd94G0WwJDM5CbqwGK8nbnLfaDkx9ci-6uLw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhf83k7vqP1obqboNHanuwOJKGJEUx7kCm3wP47QOLyqY0JvW0Ho0Z4r1ayeZfA0yiCwUEN5OO80EoioCk1NwOAiGGWFhT8S-FXSxgKlYyK850Lp6OALtQRs918R_CMqPNJdSpFOg_T8EJTY06w4xClbLjd94G0WwJDM5CbqwGK8nbnLfaDkx9ci-6uLw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhOmNJI4ToTCBgQiogerKzJydSQM97l1J20KAmipCzJ-f3JvUfP2rF-I2jKyr-3ah7_nmhut2bRMEn20HxZ0L4DwH782dokpbbKveGRHuLOCCO6hvDGZrVG_Ek-C7uKawgpUCaNEGv7o5XCGsnQlvl1ZS8O_WbeB3UeMs-QXk5lAzmhX-iix9MJssK2SQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhOmNJI4ToTCBgQiogerKzJydSQM97l1J20KAmipCzJ-f3JvUfP2rF-I2jKyr-3ah7_nmhut2bRMEn20HxZ0L4DwH782dokpbbKveGRHuLOCCO6hvDGZrVG_Ek-C7uKawgpUCaNEGv7o5XCGsnQlvl1ZS8O_WbeB3UeMs-QXk5lAzmhX-iix9MJssK2SQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Next we estimate the number of other party seats in the House. As I have stated before, this is the weakest part of the model. The relationship in the historical data is week. Also. note that I am making a projection based on an out-of-sample data point (always problematic). My best guess is that we will have seven cross-bench members in the next Parliament.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiYs73KsuNyVgZpTWdUB8-wIVoWx5mAkoQb0qOvPsL5Ex1mnMi3e-yphcYN60T9_P-zRWvJHTDpZ-wfQObE3PdA2CGRGsiP_6IhzoUtkAxDOHs5ZHhB8F5IGOjbujCdLZO39NGHNNzifN1EXf-rUNZvUEYGMFgyte3IjJVeDCdBPLMN25SVc_xlhMh53Q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiYs73KsuNyVgZpTWdUB8-wIVoWx5mAkoQb0qOvPsL5Ex1mnMi3e-yphcYN60T9_P-zRWvJHTDpZ-wfQObE3PdA2CGRGsiP_6IhzoUtkAxDOHs5ZHhB8F5IGOjbujCdLZO39NGHNNzifN1EXf-rUNZvUEYGMFgyte3IjJVeDCdBPLMN25SVc_xlhMh53Q=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhHlGqzYkyAbnIbdPE_gHDj7L5tVTWY-wZuenm5E1ER5mdaNFstQAK0WE_VjQcwsQ68RX6Ul0SJXh5qfKYhSkQO0tf-9n5fXQs93aRJ1-JHX0JoKuycnuLWYP-N9m7yp9aXtius7eHemutWnPfEv-_Wv3CdcCMnZWNfMnNyQLgJmvHj20JP1ynyL86FOw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhHlGqzYkyAbnIbdPE_gHDj7L5tVTWY-wZuenm5E1ER5mdaNFstQAK0WE_VjQcwsQ68RX6Ul0SJXh5qfKYhSkQO0tf-9n5fXQs93aRJ1-JHX0JoKuycnuLWYP-N9m7yp9aXtius7eHemutWnPfEv-_Wv3CdcCMnZWNfMnNyQLgJmvHj20JP1ynyL86FOw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Finally, using a votes to seats regression and some simple math, we can estimate the number of seats for Labor and the Coalition.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjxj-ncjFhDeMVCSHCq5_Xfd-nr9qvcm8pNHd-G6Sbg-WlCbvCiUGEJXEoTTyevC_0DbpblHLilw8A-63IaZ4pw5BvdvXIty4zgq9I76MEJQWLPuYft2-78tHQuG1g_wn-XEqGLDuR9qTbeX2w0cDWoBy-u1fy2uXnCPKiRd7C6tIQI3Q-c209_RhGh3A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjxj-ncjFhDeMVCSHCq5_Xfd-nr9qvcm8pNHd-G6Sbg-WlCbvCiUGEJXEoTTyevC_0DbpblHLilw8A-63IaZ4pw5BvdvXIty4zgq9I76MEJQWLPuYft2-78tHQuG1g_wn-XEqGLDuR9qTbeX2w0cDWoBy-u1fy2uXnCPKiRd7C6tIQI3Q-c209_RhGh3A=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhKTsvb8p3BemmKp7cIEnsyupYrZVF48-Ouq1reunINwYLwHbAUf0VHzVSbCj4ecsnc0TJ0oXEs4_1PFWXxjLBEmMXJf5YHCPgatqS_wRGCdnC1V9gaZamHPEMmlKrxUA0Uh_SYAnOLk1ANNXuAasKosxtUVrF8RrIEZNg94_IgRMHlA-_uzJfPrIWwqA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhKTsvb8p3BemmKp7cIEnsyupYrZVF48-Ouq1reunINwYLwHbAUf0VHzVSbCj4ecsnc0TJ0oXEs4_1PFWXxjLBEmMXJf5YHCPgatqS_wRGCdnC1V9gaZamHPEMmlKrxUA0Uh_SYAnOLk1ANNXuAasKosxtUVrF8RrIEZNg94_IgRMHlA-_uzJfPrIWwqA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6p1Q47YuO1PSP1g79qafSeEakL6GU2rb9RdtHq6FHv-pJ-LwUOmUfOGFqrRgNrOVsUXqJngZtiavvpGcr0UmqBMBBjosZ_7ckhLUgXiCRP-sEoRzU39ScVREJD-US4zZqkNgdOSroxWbJUYMvO8lBUzF8_fhZr8mRPgDhL8DjlGwL5hDOBlg70snu7A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6p1Q47YuO1PSP1g79qafSeEakL6GU2rb9RdtHq6FHv-pJ-LwUOmUfOGFqrRgNrOVsUXqJngZtiavvpGcr0UmqBMBBjosZ_7ckhLUgXiCRP-sEoRzU39ScVREJD-US4zZqkNgdOSroxWbJUYMvO8lBUzF8_fhZr8mRPgDhL8DjlGwL5hDOBlg70snu7A=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><h3 style="text-align: left;"></h3><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><h3 style="text-align: left;">Polls over the past 7 days</h3><div style="text-align: left;">We can repeat this process for the polls in the past seven days. The regressions are slightly different, but the steps are the same as above. The big change is that we are now estimating a much closer 2pp result from the election. [I should note they regression charts provide a simplified cross check from the model, and that is why there are some very minor differences between the two].<br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjB2LPYMy5v0PtWjok9Jf2a8NS21rB8nuvkzZN-4Asyhtdr0em5efHZRX6PE82-UKzGBnjBHU2KyvNMmetUmC5dqc_qcnYpvZXasoL59_ksOGRbKqYlfXO2TpeL-J4NIWkQnQgUbPdN9sEKAelEsJ8d0rjRh8L9VJYWnIFbM2qlNwRiApTOu3eAC-gtww" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjB2LPYMy5v0PtWjok9Jf2a8NS21rB8nuvkzZN-4Asyhtdr0em5efHZRX6PE82-UKzGBnjBHU2KyvNMmetUmC5dqc_qcnYpvZXasoL59_ksOGRbKqYlfXO2TpeL-J4NIWkQnQgUbPdN9sEKAelEsJ8d0rjRh8L9VJYWnIFbM2qlNwRiApTOu3eAC-gtww=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhcqzLW5v740p8xSQZiOMLugJxf6QxFT8ivwtG8IvTkxat8ioxm-MZEJzJ6m315qz-G0tktVeL_S7_rQTTpw-3e9AFdrXltfbzrNIMhW0XgNmTsvQZEQPR_UzWNtmiTyey4iIIp_duIfgpzzIBGMSSDxQ8RjgYTHZQOv2PjUg2RxbJ2ZARawo28JgTPqQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhcqzLW5v740p8xSQZiOMLugJxf6QxFT8ivwtG8IvTkxat8ioxm-MZEJzJ6m315qz-G0tktVeL_S7_rQTTpw-3e9AFdrXltfbzrNIMhW0XgNmTsvQZEQPR_UzWNtmiTyey4iIIp_duIfgpzzIBGMSSDxQ8RjgYTHZQOv2PjUg2RxbJ2ZARawo28JgTPqQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEicmyXOqsTKumhdDR6xIuwLOFjutGzOLWTE7ALBgZXVgN_7Fhh3Ex0PMChFgcrk9Tbdrli4f_jIeCOAd1KJEDp_iuP9iYQ-JKM_CeP8D_LOxiOqWoZ0V70UV4q5Liu8ynGF94AAKPHcvDUJZ_PatGWknSwIxGXkO_6eV4DluI1zm2cQ5iPSYkLCapokig" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEicmyXOqsTKumhdDR6xIuwLOFjutGzOLWTE7ALBgZXVgN_7Fhh3Ex0PMChFgcrk9Tbdrli4f_jIeCOAd1KJEDp_iuP9iYQ-JKM_CeP8D_LOxiOqWoZ0V70UV4q5Liu8ynGF94AAKPHcvDUJZ_PatGWknSwIxGXkO_6eV4DluI1zm2cQ5iPSYkLCapokig=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />Other party votes:<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhd0h_hfmZaWkcYywZ-PS8Px48epfn2JGS3XXkORn94jppnaoJ8u_UU8yyl7nJPJz_rrxYnz4pumSDxI_CoMrIh90TaGEcMmHHPNGnEDxebfmlMMOlQU2U0wrHbWSpMI4XWenCajjPlRc3mAigOSsP0otxexMA-HgUkHXnrxss4D0wGNpbpMgn93KVesA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhd0h_hfmZaWkcYywZ-PS8Px48epfn2JGS3XXkORn94jppnaoJ8u_UU8yyl7nJPJz_rrxYnz4pumSDxI_CoMrIh90TaGEcMmHHPNGnEDxebfmlMMOlQU2U0wrHbWSpMI4XWenCajjPlRc3mAigOSsP0otxexMA-HgUkHXnrxss4D0wGNpbpMgn93KVesA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEglT38K5GoJMTtxyZtxLK87GwfGMJadRn3-8tZqPBUMCzcJ5tJfD0VdSzPvVVFAmmg7ND1zSDwFK-nWc1bTVIAC01hOc023KiAhL-M5h1E9DZ7Fx8kK1Rn0s5pXFvzzYw7nVKHJd8jcVglFK7JXztqvvmuhSMq7m3tFtZJNpB-376wd0DKTiln7USu-0Q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEglT38K5GoJMTtxyZtxLK87GwfGMJadRn3-8tZqPBUMCzcJ5tJfD0VdSzPvVVFAmmg7ND1zSDwFK-nWc1bTVIAC01hOc023KiAhL-M5h1E9DZ7Fx8kK1Rn0s5pXFvzzYw7nVKHJd8jcVglFK7JXztqvvmuhSMq7m3tFtZJNpB-376wd0DKTiln7USu-0Q=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />And then seats in the House:</div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgc86LVA6VrRbELIOTrPrH4KEwAI2s0Z-XGbwztG-oZR7ZcpsMeZa_x7aSXVHI9VWHKChHsACb4mcHhb3T-yR9n2G9kX0go-L6f8TrTb451vRnfObPDfCSmJMkawY_tjwBzWQeMhaPxZo6jTwoJ0bNmJ_juFKNrNxJLp5kfc9t5w6oZQu1eAVKHOSCPAQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgc86LVA6VrRbELIOTrPrH4KEwAI2s0Z-XGbwztG-oZR7ZcpsMeZa_x7aSXVHI9VWHKChHsACb4mcHhb3T-yR9n2G9kX0go-L6f8TrTb451vRnfObPDfCSmJMkawY_tjwBzWQeMhaPxZo6jTwoJ0bNmJ_juFKNrNxJLp5kfc9t5w6oZQu1eAVKHOSCPAQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCS1YJBUjgGKj8rGqrHsTpepbT9kE4_V2EOFZj727pe1yTs_IRLJiZRdnXN95-DPHV1WhPdlgpYIwjz5yI4S9CjzVe5gCAO7nGDiUlVXS38mhhHb1-xVoGC85g2hHf8yvF52CJ_OidjvscVflcSej6Q1vb4Z27_rFg11vhuoDEeuRZsqYDqNsXGEPBYA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCS1YJBUjgGKj8rGqrHsTpepbT9kE4_V2EOFZj727pe1yTs_IRLJiZRdnXN95-DPHV1WhPdlgpYIwjz5yI4S9CjzVe5gCAO7nGDiUlVXS38mhhHb1-xVoGC85g2hHf8yvF52CJ_OidjvscVflcSej6Q1vb4Z27_rFg11vhuoDEeuRZsqYDqNsXGEPBYA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div> </div><div style="text-align: left;">Of these these two sets of results, I am inclined to lean towards the 7 day result as being more accurate. </div><div style="text-align: left;"> <br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><h3 style="text-align: left;">How we compare with others</h3><div style="text-align: left;"></div><div style="text-align: left;">My 7 day result (above) is similar to <a href="https://www.buckleysandnone.com/">Buckley's and None</a>.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">The <a href="https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2022fed/regular/">Australian Election Forecasts</a> is a little like my 14 day result above. However, their mid range estimate is for a cross-bench of 11 seats - 2 Greens and 9 others. I have it 7 seats.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Ethan and Rebekah at <a href="https://armariuminterreta.com/projects/2022-australian-federal-election-forecast/">Armarium Interreta</a> are somewhere between my two results above. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">The usual caveats</h3><div style="text-align: left;">The estimate of cross-bench seats in Parliament is the weakest element of this model. My intuition is that there are special factors at play this election that are likely to see more independents take seats, primarily from the Coalition. </div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div></div><div style="text-align: left;"></div><div style="text-align: left;">If you want to see how the sausage was made, <a href="https://github.com/bpalmer4/Australian-Federal-Election-2022/blob/main/notebooks/Bayesian%20Election%20Model.ipynb">the Jupyter Notebook is on GitHub</a>. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Finally, there are no guarantees with this model. It has been hastily put together in the last week of an election campaign. It has not been back-tested. It is a macro-level model in nature. So, do<span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"> not blame me if you place bets based on this model and you lose your money</span>, that's your problem. </div>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-14220963561123820832022-05-19T11:34:00.006+10:002022-05-19T11:52:43.398+10:00Modelling the 2022 Election - Closer than we first thought?<p>Recently in a conversation with Ethan from <a href="Armarium Interreta">Armarium Interreta</a>, he made the observation that the polls in the final week of a campaign were (on average) more accurate than the polls in the final two weeks of the campaign. This is critical because we are seeing a tightening in the most recent polls. [Note: things might not stay this way as more polls come in, but this is how it looks now].<br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ1nt2S-3JIMN5CbTuLyxuWecXZGf1heFk_iswGtcUXjgvwwWypehJtYaVCt_Wx4wKL5BdOZ-pZU3DN1YJDcConh-2ROIXC9vBilzGUuvcLrLfpT44nWR9yUwzX6PJ93w-nY9BuJ0RcGy9CQ5VoG68nsRWKq9o4hhV-s1t3p8HXLvWPni_9HOWu0Ks0Q/s2700/Coalition%202pp%20(recent%20polls).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ1nt2S-3JIMN5CbTuLyxuWecXZGf1heFk_iswGtcUXjgvwwWypehJtYaVCt_Wx4wKL5BdOZ-pZU3DN1YJDcConh-2ROIXC9vBilzGUuvcLrLfpT44nWR9yUwzX6PJ93w-nY9BuJ0RcGy9CQ5VoG68nsRWKq9o4hhV-s1t3p8HXLvWPni_9HOWu0Ks0Q/w640-h320/Coalition%202pp%20(recent%20polls).png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><span></span></p><a name='more'></a>Based on this observation, I have modified my model to look at the mean polls in the last 7 days of the campaign, and compared those with the average polls over the past seven days. This changes the regression I am using for calculating an election outcome based on the mean late polls. Nonetheless, we still have the phenomenon that the opinion polls are typically less accurate when they have Labor well ahead.<br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnarmVSV8Pimt1rNg3St9Ub-yhqWJphBtnBJdkB5Lca2LcWJ2gJ4SdZdvnZLdnb7X1z8olwRUj1mkt4goBuRKbIOXnPws2UJOhsSFysbV7yDaVc-NvLhEYnouv6xbFadcYwSHbMYCw8eQ3tUK_EwFa3ASmlHyrtfcDiPcArJsyUnIYxv0ymJZSUZ8kqQ/s2700/Conversion%20of%20Mean%20Late%20Campaign%20Polls%20to%20Election%20Outcomes%20(1983-2019).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnarmVSV8Pimt1rNg3St9Ub-yhqWJphBtnBJdkB5Lca2LcWJ2gJ4SdZdvnZLdnb7X1z8olwRUj1mkt4goBuRKbIOXnPws2UJOhsSFysbV7yDaVc-NvLhEYnouv6xbFadcYwSHbMYCw8eQ3tUK_EwFa3ASmlHyrtfcDiPcArJsyUnIYxv0ymJZSUZ8kqQ/w640-h320/Conversion%20of%20Mean%20Late%20Campaign%20Polls%20to%20Election%20Outcomes%20(1983-2019).png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>From an opinion poll average of 47.4 per cent two-party preferred (2pp) for the Coalition, I estimate the Coalition's 2pp vote will be between 46.3 per cent and 51.8 per cent (94 per cent HDI) , with a mean of 49.1 per cent. Labor will be between 48.2 and 53.6 per cent 2pp., with a mean of 50.9 per cent. <b>This might be a closer election than many of us first thought.</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih5wfQOkw3LjamLTMte5M4IU3cxMiFxl-HwmtHI33o5SII5EiIdbhNSp3tN--O_CYKhAjtQqPyXRTOYkYVZVKo5o6SIofZazUgorulw4XQssIjzQopHk2E4g4YTksatTbJBvcuPBjWoMgwIHQnhb7IrKVLrK6IyBgGHxbAe7KSP9Vv9ymG-aSLOMXQ8Q/s2700/Projected%20Labor%202PP%20Vote%20Share%20at%202022%20Election.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih5wfQOkw3LjamLTMte5M4IU3cxMiFxl-HwmtHI33o5SII5EiIdbhNSp3tN--O_CYKhAjtQqPyXRTOYkYVZVKo5o6SIofZazUgorulw4XQssIjzQopHk2E4g4YTksatTbJBvcuPBjWoMgwIHQnhb7IrKVLrK6IyBgGHxbAe7KSP9Vv9ymG-aSLOMXQ8Q/w640-h320/Projected%20Labor%202PP%20Vote%20Share%20at%202022%20Election.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibysYv06Vl4Vtd0c-GzkwCYV5wJgoekuMEhEz4xp5UKjSFIu_By8xnad0At5f0tY9h14Pc2qM2F2Gj87OUX6lC6t1EdyiuMk9UIS_45zX9VljzgRPFu6-mXkjPkVDBeE8sTGJg8C89nfALMwAhK85-yg7_ZFCwXNjmhFVvPcd8Lvmhmgd-RDM1kelWCA/s2700/Projected%20Coalition%202PP%20Vote%20Share%20at%202022%20Election.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibysYv06Vl4Vtd0c-GzkwCYV5wJgoekuMEhEz4xp5UKjSFIu_By8xnad0At5f0tY9h14Pc2qM2F2Gj87OUX6lC6t1EdyiuMk9UIS_45zX9VljzgRPFu6-mXkjPkVDBeE8sTGJg8C89nfALMwAhK85-yg7_ZFCwXNjmhFVvPcd8Lvmhmgd-RDM1kelWCA/w640-h320/Projected%20Coalition%202PP%20Vote%20Share%20at%202022%20Election.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Projecting this to seats won, I get:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYddsEJ-jDLlNaXiu4pJnduLY4c47tgdoGLemzirNseWagaiBMchXmZNazXBv5xofX4EQzFDNQS4OqHOeNm6TE-nGzSdzCa288IF08h1xnA94jXNkY2shpedPFDPLToT7iE3_nTqKVBV-UkKFOWU8MdUZRxiw9gVh-3o_LV3MYf9S1-7CjBzjegoLINg/s2700/Projected%20Seats%20Won%20by%20Independents%20and%20Other%20Parties.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYddsEJ-jDLlNaXiu4pJnduLY4c47tgdoGLemzirNseWagaiBMchXmZNazXBv5xofX4EQzFDNQS4OqHOeNm6TE-nGzSdzCa288IF08h1xnA94jXNkY2shpedPFDPLToT7iE3_nTqKVBV-UkKFOWU8MdUZRxiw9gVh-3o_LV3MYf9S1-7CjBzjegoLINg/w640-h320/Projected%20Seats%20Won%20by%20Independents%20and%20Other%20Parties.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRvRJOfBxbV2rpAeCLKTKXl9u9y6-CZHBeupDcLq6w8GVo3Pub3xnBT4bYKmls5sTvxeP3Lf0QIMGabJXL3_akxsykW8l_9LkJpLmBr0KOEIKsRt_mfbbBfK8yHlIxuySppEfmSF8_bA-2h3pps0dXyg4EHA7ONlYe-uw16LxiRDrliVFXVnsa1APb6w/s2700/Projected%20Seats%20Won%20by%20Labor.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRvRJOfBxbV2rpAeCLKTKXl9u9y6-CZHBeupDcLq6w8GVo3Pub3xnBT4bYKmls5sTvxeP3Lf0QIMGabJXL3_akxsykW8l_9LkJpLmBr0KOEIKsRt_mfbbBfK8yHlIxuySppEfmSF8_bA-2h3pps0dXyg4EHA7ONlYe-uw16LxiRDrliVFXVnsa1APb6w/w640-h320/Projected%20Seats%20Won%20by%20Labor.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPZxM58isTTyzy808KMnnQSPY1ayX5AodZBxSxrs_NGG-X6P7MYyi-bkrsthGHcmpL2D4EI2s4u7dMkPSxVh_LGP2PDhHt1bLB3EBY4JYVX4s_C44wR0VYgbcklTFai8jShIwAiwz9ona19EveDj0p0yQTHkZ8jJZv_niMv76vFQIWBsRaDBio3S6Xuw/s2700/Projected%20Seats%20Won%20by%20the%20Coalition.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPZxM58isTTyzy808KMnnQSPY1ayX5AodZBxSxrs_NGG-X6P7MYyi-bkrsthGHcmpL2D4EI2s4u7dMkPSxVh_LGP2PDhHt1bLB3EBY4JYVX4s_C44wR0VYgbcklTFai8jShIwAiwz9ona19EveDj0p0yQTHkZ8jJZv_niMv76vFQIWBsRaDBio3S6Xuw/w640-h320/Projected%20Seats%20Won%20by%20the%20Coalition.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><u><b>Caveats</b></u>: I am using a regression to predict the number of other party seats. However, this relationship is not strong, and the election of non-major party candidates is historically idiosyncratic. As a result, my intuition is that in this 2022 election, the model underestimates the cross-bench by up to 3 or 4 seats, and over-estimates the Coalition by the same amount. <br /></p><p>The most recent tightening in the polls, and only focusing on polls in the past week gives me the following probabilities for an election outcome.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidcyaKbyQr8oopjn2O5CSUjjSn78EE4kVsyzF8UKB6An0GSuShnbScNZ47mX5RI4IMxKUiOkjMGC3eTFwlvv0gZ53T3YTjQuttCUaRiaTTamR0Owcj8hxFeUsGqRdCBd-i86f4B1cgeil1vD0hW0_W80mNTGtzqox6qti13sAGU87bRa51jhTJ_w-BzA/s2700/Probability%20of%20Parliamentary%20Outcome%20following%20Election.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidcyaKbyQr8oopjn2O5CSUjjSn78EE4kVsyzF8UKB6An0GSuShnbScNZ47mX5RI4IMxKUiOkjMGC3eTFwlvv0gZ53T3YTjQuttCUaRiaTTamR0Owcj8hxFeUsGqRdCBd-i86f4B1cgeil1vD0hW0_W80mNTGtzqox6qti13sAGU87bRa51jhTJ_w-BzA/w640-h320/Probability%20of%20Parliamentary%20Outcome%20following%20Election.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />If you want to compare my work with other modellers, you should check out:<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://www.buckleysandnone.com/">Buckley's and None</a>;</li><li>The <a href="https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2022fed/regular">Australian Election Forecasts</a> ; and</li><li><a href="https://armariuminterreta.com/projects/2022-australian-federal-election-forecast/">Armarium Interreta</a>.</li></ul><p></p><p>If you want to see how the sausage was made, <a href="https://github.com/bpalmer4/Australian-Federal-Election-2022/blob/main/notebooks/Bayesian%20Election%20Model.ipynb">the Jupyter Notebook is on GitHub</a>.
But please note this Notebook was written in a couple of days, and has not been
rigorously tested nor tidied up. </p>Finally, there are no guarantees with this model. So, do<span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">n't blame me if you put bets based on this model and you lose your money</span>. <p></p>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-19831297857339384692022-05-18T10:42:00.022+10:002022-05-19T10:56:02.880+10:00Modelling the 2022 election - Part II<p>Most of my refinements since <a href="https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2022/05/a-quick-and-dirty-bayesian-model-of.html">yesterday's post</a> have been to correct minor glitches in the code, and data transformations to make it work better with the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method that is used in the <a href="https://docs.pymc.io/en/latest/index.html">PyMC software</a>. But in broad terms the model is conceptually unchanged.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhC7UOYfSVT60d-oue0zQgnJ5AE4OOgalnmvlhXmATdGBSueXXz_Os3aHborFMYceWaIKjJt-uf0NO-ZYpAok4egomFpv0EapWXPQv-N3Eb55erd8vcUjw4qBIcns1hXSEJuOneVScVonL3tf0_75t_M2SKxs8vnV7wK7cg-D5xmj3ktBR6h-xdtfRXlg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="914" data-original-width="2251" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhC7UOYfSVT60d-oue0zQgnJ5AE4OOgalnmvlhXmATdGBSueXXz_Os3aHborFMYceWaIKjJt-uf0NO-ZYpAok4egomFpv0EapWXPQv-N3Eb55erd8vcUjw4qBIcns1hXSEJuOneVScVonL3tf0_75t_M2SKxs8vnV7wK7cg-D5xmj3ktBR6h-xdtfRXlg=w640-h260" width="640" /></a></div><br />The first thing my model does is try and predict the two-party preferred (2pp) Election result, based on the mean of the polls over the past fortnight. The critical assumption I make here is that historically the polls have been increasingly inaccurate, the more favourable they have been to Labor. In plain English, a poll average in Labor's favor of 46 to 54 (roughly where we are now) is likely to see an election result more like 48 to 52. The solid red line in the next chart is the regression line. The dashed purple line is y = x. If the historic poll means were unbiased, they would be normally distributed around this dashed y=x line. Of note, all but one of the historic poll means was above the dashed line (ie. all but one had under-estimated the Coalition). <br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEixVrTZ_kM1GfyjahUZb34qiQYZWrmDZrP_YImAz_a1wCNweEp4o4_cIkO_065-tdEC77pxUvgJXM3p50_70kgBojYTdfJNzz0IlWE5oxYDZPAnf53XFZiyTH3qrM0-SYikfoRDLZkyHaU5SJFceLf_O93kcqb4zSRBi_TwTVanS_Ir94u1hJwxMaSLJw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEixVrTZ_kM1GfyjahUZb34qiQYZWrmDZrP_YImAz_a1wCNweEp4o4_cIkO_065-tdEC77pxUvgJXM3p50_70kgBojYTdfJNzz0IlWE5oxYDZPAnf53XFZiyTH3qrM0-SYikfoRDLZkyHaU5SJFceLf_O93kcqb4zSRBi_TwTVanS_Ir94u1hJwxMaSLJw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div>My current prediction for the 2022 election outcome is as follows: the Coalition is likely to get between 45.9 and 50.8 per cent of the 2pp vote (the 94% Highest Density Interval). Labor is likely to get between 49.2 and 54.1 per cent.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhZa-4fj0zPwU8Mz0oIbOoS8y4nbHmCeSSViFpKDvVdxFLn8SprZlhEbiM0SSowfyZPgGnftdcMULer_X8ilazLtLQDT865EX-UJdwfAVXbBepEDeGB_DapVZjueBtQ3BB4NuGWO0RSib2AHp0VuqgzW8_Oevn5AaBzj-7651tnKdjMSQF2XxXNEeisBQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhZa-4fj0zPwU8Mz0oIbOoS8y4nbHmCeSSViFpKDvVdxFLn8SprZlhEbiM0SSowfyZPgGnftdcMULer_X8ilazLtLQDT865EX-UJdwfAVXbBepEDeGB_DapVZjueBtQ3BB4NuGWO0RSib2AHp0VuqgzW8_Oevn5AaBzj-7651tnKdjMSQF2XxXNEeisBQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhzIlYJYO64o-J15_fJ3Jt4irae2Ny2exIWR2cAcJ0T_2QvfFnMjq8eYvcLkTWsjOPuPRndI4YINvoJEXql5tGUkFHpiR74whp0AyVu-rUuL8LpG3YNwHTRDkQprPVSeaEg9zStV0Co1o-lii6k5v6S3O-4j3CEQB9rkT_fE2hiReIUtoLO6KusU6351Q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhzIlYJYO64o-J15_fJ3Jt4irae2Ny2exIWR2cAcJ0T_2QvfFnMjq8eYvcLkTWsjOPuPRndI4YINvoJEXql5tGUkFHpiR74whp0AyVu-rUuL8LpG3YNwHTRDkQprPVSeaEg9zStV0Co1o-lii6k5v6S3O-4j3CEQB9rkT_fE2hiReIUtoLO6KusU6351Q=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />From the election outcome, I then look at the number of seats that each party would win if there were no independents or minor parties. Again I use a regression to do this. The regression line suggests the Coalition has a slight advantage over Labor in converting votes to seats. <p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8s5xNzCZ5YbqariSpfNzNyDzu56gQjGd1rlkBfzZw3QzetodJvzavBNImpB9Ovjlw2RPRlJWjkz4ATSdBsngd6TJEKa2f89q8Qz9DLKx2CyIcvswKDf8ypzYQYeKhpczNpon1UPgRXPWY3kyh9bQEo2A2iW2fsriugc3DhuUKDFX5bm1BXR0YMmdVZg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8s5xNzCZ5YbqariSpfNzNyDzu56gQjGd1rlkBfzZw3QzetodJvzavBNImpB9Ovjlw2RPRlJWjkz4ATSdBsngd6TJEKa2f89q8Qz9DLKx2CyIcvswKDf8ypzYQYeKhpczNpon1UPgRXPWY3kyh9bQEo2A2iW2fsriugc3DhuUKDFX5bm1BXR0YMmdVZg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />My current prediction, if there were no independents and minor parties, is that Labor would notionally win between 67 and and 98 seats (94% HDI). The Coalition would win between 53 and 84 seats. <p></p><p>The third step is to estimate the number of seats that would be won by independents and minor parties (including the Greens). I do this with a regression as well. But this relationship is less robust. And it does not take into account the special factors that might be at play in this election. If we plug a 29 per cent other party primary vote (up from 25 per cent in 2019), the regression still only predicts 6.5 cross bench parliamentarians. <br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgT2bfP1bm4BHpCQhZk7denq-_hAz1wD_XhmjVk_sxZhGQZn_KxvqgPjiDoAndASnJgWkp_pyTaEkrSBWqFGsowDvKksYJyZZWvW3WwV1JI4XWIRNoDHrnj1XkJGfH96dPRCjL5R0EUuO1EN1RnUrqrjjLZPfaUC4CR4MjTBhSqSHdw2t5D6h5lzTBJCg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgT2bfP1bm4BHpCQhZk7denq-_hAz1wD_XhmjVk_sxZhGQZn_KxvqgPjiDoAndASnJgWkp_pyTaEkrSBWqFGsowDvKksYJyZZWvW3WwV1JI4XWIRNoDHrnj1XkJGfH96dPRCjL5R0EUuO1EN1RnUrqrjjLZPfaUC4CR4MjTBhSqSHdw2t5D6h5lzTBJCg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Because the polls were pretty much spot on for the past three elections, I don't bother with estimating the Other primary vote from the current polls.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiINcUNP3Wnd3sOT2pcpgzu8BMFmdP-dbwTkVk-jsIFa96hIrRwlNJsKGmyebRZ60Q-FxUdF9wzl4XIMQs7-M5jRMiiTX3sCbzsHmXiKVhPe-0vRFbT4TFluMGpeLtVDuLQHCUhbiX1W3KK7LdkioWxJjdiTNZl4YeF0nMQcVGI-Glxq2RdYUFR3FS1gg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiINcUNP3Wnd3sOT2pcpgzu8BMFmdP-dbwTkVk-jsIFa96hIrRwlNJsKGmyebRZ60Q-FxUdF9wzl4XIMQs7-M5jRMiiTX3sCbzsHmXiKVhPe-0vRFbT4TFluMGpeLtVDuLQHCUhbiX1W3KK7LdkioWxJjdiTNZl4YeF0nMQcVGI-Glxq2RdYUFR3FS1gg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>I estimate the number of these non-mainstream party seats to be between 3 and 11 seats. My intuition is the model under-estimates this probability. In this
election, it looks like the down-side risk is largely on the Coalition
side. I would not be surprised if the Coalition got one or two fewer
seats, and the cross bench grew from its current six to (say) seven, eight or perhaps even nine members. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgph82Yu2srJF6xzSaMJ6iG4OjOgl7HAvBEj6-Dt6POS1sJfDiahIl_xe3mo3L0vCg0zBpv8Or428nSWapn1h9fi6WGF5eDnZzaaiUSouJIkhWriDIzvVXdOyNkki9dF7BZBckOFqllPdSY3tSyQdOUf9KH4CMrcB59O75Pgh_CmDcIAwDQvkMi-qAIHA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgph82Yu2srJF6xzSaMJ6iG4OjOgl7HAvBEj6-Dt6POS1sJfDiahIl_xe3mo3L0vCg0zBpv8Or428nSWapn1h9fi6WGF5eDnZzaaiUSouJIkhWriDIzvVXdOyNkki9dF7BZBckOFqllPdSY3tSyQdOUf9KH4CMrcB59O75Pgh_CmDcIAwDQvkMi-qAIHA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Finally, I deduct these seats for independents and minor parties from the notional seat totals I created above for Labor and the Coalition. I assume that somewhere between 65% and 75% will be lost from the Coalition. This gives me the likely seats to be held by Labor and the Coalition. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh1Z-JOV8GPBXbpZCfdckVbmJIXg5K242ZYf_mcXXx2mYXE-2TUW2VJjVvMfhzdXPOQSl_0XMjvyZtIPRWvGp6ch52WYsm0NJBG0KnsUVZXc1HRnuRk1B5VmiC2EQUjskYVNVKM6ovxbL1X7na2D26NCcYdrTYJ0ATva_m1cQK5bzLi7EYAbe3bLtApNQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh1Z-JOV8GPBXbpZCfdckVbmJIXg5K242ZYf_mcXXx2mYXE-2TUW2VJjVvMfhzdXPOQSl_0XMjvyZtIPRWvGp6ch52WYsm0NJBG0KnsUVZXc1HRnuRk1B5VmiC2EQUjskYVNVKM6ovxbL1X7na2D26NCcYdrTYJ0ATva_m1cQK5bzLi7EYAbe3bLtApNQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEghuER2C2-IzLMlD3UyfKSK3MWI0w_53NI3D5GICrvQejuZ7jJwTj6XKw2CKceNIs1zUQulsyKxXIcb2HykrqB14bmj5nq6Y695KuHQhDiUTILsQ19Hz33vWB6Mcyidgz2-Z3PguWblFdM3a1QpRombT6X4ekpBKyhg4QBm6W6i2cKgU12tr4JD1nSfAg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEghuER2C2-IzLMlD3UyfKSK3MWI0w_53NI3D5GICrvQejuZ7jJwTj6XKw2CKceNIs1zUQulsyKxXIcb2HykrqB14bmj5nq6Y695KuHQhDiUTILsQ19Hz33vWB6Mcyidgz2-Z3PguWblFdM3a1QpRombT6X4ekpBKyhg4QBm6W6i2cKgU12tr4JD1nSfAg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Labor is likely to win between 65 an 96 seats. The Coalition is likely to win between 48 and 79 seats. Labor has a 73.2 per cent probability of forming majority government. The Coalition has a 7.5% probability. There is a 19.2 per cent chance of a hung parliament.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgWusq9NlboEH7buwDs8oAPuxugfFWs76aof8K8YYvocahJdG8lL1THT8iNuF5Wt9yjYiS1609D1J8UyXNM2oN7LpMcc3MVwUSSHLeXNTj3dXhfNuKpb3t8UtjndaHBIMkNKMPjAsGHR3PPW2d-4n6Cy4PMnzrQ_7S60Dd0d0VMTtmG3GHVZz4czW0eKA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgWusq9NlboEH7buwDs8oAPuxugfFWs76aof8K8YYvocahJdG8lL1THT8iNuF5Wt9yjYiS1609D1J8UyXNM2oN7LpMcc3MVwUSSHLeXNTj3dXhfNuKpb3t8UtjndaHBIMkNKMPjAsGHR3PPW2d-4n6Cy4PMnzrQ_7S60Dd0d0VMTtmG3GHVZz4czW0eKA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>If you want to see how the sausage was made, <a href="https://github.com/bpalmer4/Australian-Federal-Election-2022/blob/main/notebooks/Bayesian%20Election%20Model.ipynb">the Jupyter Notebook is on GitHub</a>.
But please note this Notebook was written in a couple of days, and has not been
rigorously tested nor tidied up. </p><p>Finally, there are no guarantees with this model. So, do<span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"> not blame me if you place bets based on this model and you lose your money</span>, that's your problem. <br /></p><p></p><p></p>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-76393567839434490252022-05-17T14:30:00.004+10:002022-05-18T10:45:35.819+10:00A quick and dirty Bayesian model of the 2022 Election<p><u><b>UPDATE</b></u>: unfortunately there were glitches in my code from yesterday. I have now corrected these and updated the charts: <a href="https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2022/05/modelling-2020-election-part-ii.html">here</a>. Yesterday's post (with the errors) follows.</p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p>I have spent the past day cobbling together a very <u><b>rough and untested</b></u> model for the 2022 election, which is informed by the latest polls as well as the polling and election outcomes since 1983. Like all models, there are a ton of compromises where I either did not have sufficient data, and/or could not think of a sufficiently robust method to make an informed estimate/projection. The model is particularly weak in respect of predicting the number of other (minor) parties that will be elected to Parliament.</p><p>The model follows the historical transitions from:</p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>the two-party preferred (2pp) polls before an election to the 2pp outcome after an election, <br /></li><li>the 2pp election outcome to the number of seats won by the major parties, and<br /></li><li>the other parties primary vote share to the number of seats won by other parties.<br /></li></ol><p>The model can be visualised as follows. <br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEibQbb3CQQet7Qb2RDTpCCtKpOAGXHxg5EFvsoEVQqz7Lomb19Dx25CbrbfeKQ5caVBOhFXganOCU736An2xEAl8ZZmAZBdC_Kl5jp9LRM_MKPEGLg_aT0EAqHPRgtUgy5T9CA0Ivhwb9c3b_a9iIZzrv85dLPHhTWtwRqwUHISzZoqKlf4BFRk4xgeVQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="766" data-original-width="2251" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEibQbb3CQQet7Qb2RDTpCCtKpOAGXHxg5EFvsoEVQqz7Lomb19Dx25CbrbfeKQ5caVBOhFXganOCU736An2xEAl8ZZmAZBdC_Kl5jp9LRM_MKPEGLg_aT0EAqHPRgtUgy5T9CA0Ivhwb9c3b_a9iIZzrv85dLPHhTWtwRqwUHISzZoqKlf4BFRk4xgeVQ=w640-h218" width="640" /></a></div>The model projects the two-party preferred vote at the election to be as follow.<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjhGkaKJSv4vHJ5EUeYew_lfXa7IbxNZzFtka1-FAVdqE3RIZsq9kUYdNIQiR4GzMWw1NT-MkwUFlV73x4EJgui89S43ZnJmoWxOEWxtbxzHNsAEP7w3vvHGm_lh58c8bgFE1RQR_xlRBKs-Dxhlbu6IvYmsDocwoPWyu5-R3r8JX_B91u40vbIwkofiw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjhGkaKJSv4vHJ5EUeYew_lfXa7IbxNZzFtka1-FAVdqE3RIZsq9kUYdNIQiR4GzMWw1NT-MkwUFlV73x4EJgui89S43ZnJmoWxOEWxtbxzHNsAEP7w3vvHGm_lh58c8bgFE1RQR_xlRBKs-Dxhlbu6IvYmsDocwoPWyu5-R3r8JX_B91u40vbIwkofiw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1eR5hmC5sOwuGW6psvfruyLYQMITheE6rHkrfdKOxed4ZCm3K4FnpCJ4k_Bi1UHp5DXBzy9EmRmUAP9nhJzPXCnG5OgadKa3BkEvvGgjjosnULoa_P43gKA8jdZP-f89eV9PPKMGt-A3pJd9mCQV6u0-_KwSttbFE47wkKySvz7GxdxMT2nLOzwE5dQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1eR5hmC5sOwuGW6psvfruyLYQMITheE6rHkrfdKOxed4ZCm3K4FnpCJ4k_Bi1UHp5DXBzy9EmRmUAP9nhJzPXCnG5OgadKa3BkEvvGgjjosnULoa_P43gKA8jdZP-f89eV9PPKMGt-A3pJd9mCQV6u0-_KwSttbFE47wkKySvz7GxdxMT2nLOzwE5dQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>In terms of the seats won by each party, the model thinks the most likely outcome is 7 others, 59 Coalition and 86 Labor.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgdA2lSnpPiuMQcGxPTZ7d-rqE_jzAg9PCAevkMALiuRu-RpYkbMRm_XpSjKor_Qb1GRlVPKaSVAwpbrbctQfBLAbAf452nfULLWAa2LBZnTntjSuuQ7Ly7yHTZvvCiMAGqNlMzL25H7aMLPdMAOtJ-IT8hEy-7-YGW2m3Y8rpHHxXTzXoXK5C5qozejw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgdA2lSnpPiuMQcGxPTZ7d-rqE_jzAg9PCAevkMALiuRu-RpYkbMRm_XpSjKor_Qb1GRlVPKaSVAwpbrbctQfBLAbAf452nfULLWAa2LBZnTntjSuuQ7Ly7yHTZvvCiMAGqNlMzL25H7aMLPdMAOtJ-IT8hEy-7-YGW2m3Y8rpHHxXTzXoXK5C5qozejw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjH4kUypCTIP3SpWJS1DiP48R5aUqUhFe4PIVeeDgIQdYkeD0gvj4JsTt2WVrIsDl0tqsdQs-iJUaC3F-AETafE70T3bMdDAtc5Ht3E2zL1BHV9bBHvaVqMDeSAqi_h4iBgPL0TOOW5NdkOLcjo_ypQMKB4mUZl1CRsBsjLuWH4ppUBKRdjSCSYdb3Pgg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjH4kUypCTIP3SpWJS1DiP48R5aUqUhFe4PIVeeDgIQdYkeD0gvj4JsTt2WVrIsDl0tqsdQs-iJUaC3F-AETafE70T3bMdDAtc5Ht3E2zL1BHV9bBHvaVqMDeSAqi_h4iBgPL0TOOW5NdkOLcjo_ypQMKB4mUZl1CRsBsjLuWH4ppUBKRdjSCSYdb3Pgg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiyXLjLP9HCGQP42gsnsfYXqt_z0j4kgXgB2b9nAvF6tNHsXKPvulm9e7pqZmpcsjq2UXr9X7WjrZz9tQgUSEo72ZBE_9bHel-fLVcCMxZBpNwD_iVEWcW8K3iqcQK0BXEwNdQWUbhUIZkXiy6bBkOu9baYZTjpQio-144RrloTsu8dM9Q0noz-m6QMXQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiyXLjLP9HCGQP42gsnsfYXqt_z0j4kgXgB2b9nAvF6tNHsXKPvulm9e7pqZmpcsjq2UXr9X7WjrZz9tQgUSEo72ZBE_9bHel-fLVcCMxZBpNwD_iVEWcW8K3iqcQK0BXEwNdQWUbhUIZkXiy6bBkOu9baYZTjpQio-144RrloTsu8dM9Q0noz-m6QMXQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />Labor has an 88.3 per cent probability of forming majority government. There is an 8.7 per cent probability of a hung parliament. The Coalition has a 2.9 per cent probability of forming majority government. <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhGeiPgiyJiq9zmAQACdemW9gekUsgPurZHo7FOtLQSi48OfN6pvAo9b25GR6M73mLWpuIsWb_F4oy7PRpOLjAjG0DZJ1h0yM5PmerZJf1dzCHY1cG42HixRZ0gxnzjU0SvE_POIKv9Zik26cWVws08gaELLLOS3zjcrpX5nqj4SaZk2W9vEPPFugdmOQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhGeiPgiyJiq9zmAQACdemW9gekUsgPurZHo7FOtLQSi48OfN6pvAo9b25GR6M73mLWpuIsWb_F4oy7PRpOLjAjG0DZJ1h0yM5PmerZJf1dzCHY1cG42HixRZ0gxnzjU0SvE_POIKv9Zik26cWVws08gaELLLOS3zjcrpX5nqj4SaZk2W9vEPPFugdmOQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p>My model is more favourable to the Labor party than the other models out there:<br /></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://www.buckleysandnone.com/">Buckley's and None</a> sees Labor winning 79 seats, the Coalition winning 65 seats, and 7 MPs sitting on the crossbench resulting in a ALP government.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2022fed/regular">Australian Election Forecasts</a> sees Labor on 81 seats, the Coalition on 59 seats, and 11 on the crossbench in the next parliament.</li><li>Ethan and Rebekah at <a href="https://armariuminterreta.com/projects/2022-australian-federal-election-forecast/">Armarium Interreta</a> see Labor on 81 seats, the Coalition on 60 and 9 others in the next Parliament.</li></ul><p>If you want to see how the sausage was made, <a href="https://github.com/bpalmer4/Australian-Federal-Election-2022/blob/main/notebooks/Bayesian%20Election%20Model.ipynb">the Jupyter Notebook is on GitHub</a>. But please note this Notebook was written in a day, and has not been tidied up. There are no guarantees with this model. If you lose money because you placed bets based on this model, that's your problem. </p><p>I will further refine and tidy things up between now and Friday. <br /></p>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-73341615037797548752022-05-09T14:34:00.002+10:002022-05-09T15:09:33.261+10:00Poll update Monday May 9<p>Two polls were released in the past 24 hours. <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-steams-ahead-with-two-weeks-to-go-poll-20220508-p5ajgv">Ipsos</a> has Labor on 57 to 43 per cent of the two-party preferred (2pp) vote. A Labor win of this magnitude would be record breaking for Labor; the Coalition won 56.9 per cent of the two party vote in 1966 with a rally-to-the-flag election on Australia's participation in the Vietnam war.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhN2Dzxpll0cWDxbZuHGvHKOpzNzVh-M1pib-z7VkhR7-3QNatQAjQGZqCg55VE3FIaZnWGMeEeZ5TzTJh-TqRCK3VI7bpsQJtqRFSBBs_Nn0A7riLdIBroZzR-Ucr6Bj84YagFQ5eJrM9lltPA_-sdP44bEZsPdwtcm40kLXNl43jqsdsFUB8A8PQlWA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="2400" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhN2Dzxpll0cWDxbZuHGvHKOpzNzVh-M1pib-z7VkhR7-3QNatQAjQGZqCg55VE3FIaZnWGMeEeZ5TzTJh-TqRCK3VI7bpsQJtqRFSBBs_Nn0A7riLdIBroZzR-Ucr6Bj84YagFQ5eJrM9lltPA_-sdP44bEZsPdwtcm40kLXNl43jqsdsFUB8A8PQlWA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/labor-momentum-in-newspoll-points-to-firm-majority-in-the-federal-election/news-story/b3d5917715963a796fb851e7fb2b4917">Newspoll</a> has Labor well ahead with 54 to 46 per cent of the 2pp vote. If this was repeated at the election, Labor would have a comfortable win. </p><p>The aggregate polls show a movement to Labor over the past week.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjg8JYK7ktGzrM-NaRDORB5NbczgBv5fnzcg_S4KePjKvIToQN7U12a7Khcy-q6O3rhJ7YhiPKksrL_2S-5EeFBqLnWryOKwvennW-gyt8WVQrwPeuCQnH0eSTTrleNQzz-4hyt4-NW4p9BGlg0qC_3tj0NTpTQ_o4HdKVGmujtvDirtUz_PUkK_hwaVA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="2400" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjg8JYK7ktGzrM-NaRDORB5NbczgBv5fnzcg_S4KePjKvIToQN7U12a7Khcy-q6O3rhJ7YhiPKksrL_2S-5EeFBqLnWryOKwvennW-gyt8WVQrwPeuCQnH0eSTTrleNQzz-4hyt4-NW4p9BGlg0qC_3tj0NTpTQ_o4HdKVGmujtvDirtUz_PUkK_hwaVA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjB0KZRHvMvnoZS0LMtjOvKEZQmPaehM3LV4VPgh65hnSenRKATpd4r7JJqvNvlUcNFRkhVKekUSwUT-zRkf_LshVzC3zJaYoiAVTNzJpt_PPQwMTW9kKlQwikbwmZHbQyjkwyUfTXIBym53gNE9xUx7Ijl_m9Zjk_ANqBnXxFTXOdcVE_Ip1xeht5ZcQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="2400" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjB0KZRHvMvnoZS0LMtjOvKEZQmPaehM3LV4VPgh65hnSenRKATpd4r7JJqvNvlUcNFRkhVKekUSwUT-zRkf_LshVzC3zJaYoiAVTNzJpt_PPQwMTW9kKlQwikbwmZHbQyjkwyUfTXIBym53gNE9xUx7Ijl_m9Zjk_ANqBnXxFTXOdcVE_Ip1xeht5ZcQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgttX4CLcvA54ZU5Q2DSiV9XHbCCyaf6_0cpC8xBY9dA9g9JokgIRV9wc7tBc-h5lHW6d8Sl25IWGmwUBSHh6hj9GP5wOC_aa4hiIZtuCBa52tyngwVhZ97Z0FSUc_WSSXmFzB9oGGbF07QxIH21cF41Y06e2Pupobs7GvvHAZDW8VV5qfBV05LIUrwXQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="2400" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgttX4CLcvA54ZU5Q2DSiV9XHbCCyaf6_0cpC8xBY9dA9g9JokgIRV9wc7tBc-h5lHW6d8Sl25IWGmwUBSHh6hj9GP5wOC_aa4hiIZtuCBa52tyngwVhZ97Z0FSUc_WSSXmFzB9oGGbF07QxIH21cF41Y06e2Pupobs7GvvHAZDW8VV5qfBV05LIUrwXQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxTauNqFzUEuQhGNCvhnTS78iWJJF7I1xv5X4XW5-VIIzOuLFV6u5NXEKStFLPZC_7CaYvDKUFgCtxK2HMPEW1hsMWnLvR_f8rK1B8tKttMlgEfrHp7m6hbxVhY3EhyZzCLvHqX831nZpnGx3rjdFOJcywbJBIfUOPqzDQLcsXaHvndcGoTFwbfkoDaQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="2400" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxTauNqFzUEuQhGNCvhnTS78iWJJF7I1xv5X4XW5-VIIzOuLFV6u5NXEKStFLPZC_7CaYvDKUFgCtxK2HMPEW1hsMWnLvR_f8rK1B8tKttMlgEfrHp7m6hbxVhY3EhyZzCLvHqX831nZpnGx3rjdFOJcywbJBIfUOPqzDQLcsXaHvndcGoTFwbfkoDaQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>With the latest Ipsos poll, any concerns I might of had about the polls being in a narrow range (collectively) are no longer there. I cannot use the Chi-squared statistic to reject the null hypothesis that the polls (collectively) have the expected variance. Collectively, the polls are not under-dispersed. </p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg8uUyJmyRJ_E4Ick8Sa_BdcaOZ0XQK3H-GDfgE2dfkTpW2i_dmNs5tIi9w6OysAKbvJSUgjj4d5O2cXZJEuu5KHoVzdBrFU0A3GKOHxsALS8QuMTmyaEdCiRTWQRqt5Igz-9rs9b_5t8DUKSeOG0Uazlr0kPqvCr0h7b8h7wTF873pFXU_DB3ct0hu1Q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="2400" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg8uUyJmyRJ_E4Ick8Sa_BdcaOZ0XQK3H-GDfgE2dfkTpW2i_dmNs5tIi9w6OysAKbvJSUgjj4d5O2cXZJEuu5KHoVzdBrFU0A3GKOHxsALS8QuMTmyaEdCiRTWQRqt5Igz-9rs9b_5t8DUKSeOG0Uazlr0kPqvCr0h7b8h7wTF873pFXU_DB3ct0hu1Q=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg9eU0bHXseGyShFArMIC5u2If6HGw_oqJQadypMiRa2VB-6Yj2J9xM9ZuIjhxkeamf7lFlVk2BTRuVYfh-eirRfAJQoBz27ZFDwSrufIxkqNqhF1ZKyyA0HNIUZBUntBA5WmOSkQi3SwSjzFZZrN3T0lUUan6UGHiQK3PnTTXXMpNConE0B6YQYQdWKg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="2400" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg9eU0bHXseGyShFArMIC5u2If6HGw_oqJQadypMiRa2VB-6Yj2J9xM9ZuIjhxkeamf7lFlVk2BTRuVYfh-eirRfAJQoBz27ZFDwSrufIxkqNqhF1ZKyyA0HNIUZBUntBA5WmOSkQi3SwSjzFZZrN3T0lUUan6UGHiQK3PnTTXXMpNConE0B6YQYQdWKg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />A number of people have developed probability models for the election outcome. The most likely outcome from each of these models (at 2pm on Monday 9 May) is reasonably similar:<br /><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://www.buckleysandnone.com/">Buckley's and None</a>: Labor has a 70% probability for forming majority government. The Coalition has an 8% chance of forming majority government. There is a 22% chance of minority government.</li></ul><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2022fed/regular">Australian Election Forecasts</a>: Labor has an 73% chance of forming majority government. The Coalition has a 5% chance of majority government. There is a 22% chance of minority government.</li></ul><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://armariuminterreta.com/projects/2022-australian-federal-election-forecast/">Armarium Interreta</a>: Labor has a 68% chance of forming majority government. The Coalition has an 8% chance of forming majority government. There is a 24% probability for a minority government. <br /></li></ul>Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-17353243164971338912022-05-04T21:00:00.010+10:002022-05-08T17:04:29.536+10:00Are the polls starting to smell a little off?<p><b>Note:</b> This page has been updated. Unfortunately, I found some errors in my original calculations. <br /></p><p>On twitter, I observed that <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election">the most recent 6 polls</a> were in an unusually tight range. I calculate the two-party preferred vote share for Labor (working backwards from the most recent poll) as follows: <span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Morgan 53.7, Essential 51.9, Newspoll 53.3, Resolve 53.9, Morgan 52.8, Newspoll 53.1. </span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">I was alert (but not yet alarmed) because the under-dispersion in the 2019 polls prior to that Election suggested there was something wrong with those polls. The 2019 two-party preferred (2pp) voting intention polls (as published) were implausibly close together, all within a one percentage point range of 51 to 52 per cent for Labor (48 to 49 per cent for the Coalition). Using the Chi-squared statistic for these polls (1.68) , we can see that the probability of this happening by chance alone is less than 0.01 per cent. This Chi-squared statistic is on the very edge of the Chi-squared probability density distribution for 15 degrees of freedom. That is to say if the polls were truly independent of each other, we would only expect to see this absence of variance on average in less than one in every 10,000 elections. </span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></p><p></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgoq8nKuGHh2TgKO_qJXtEa0yY85Z9dz7uEBKdLnds5xRJ7PA3ALOhfGfugdAdeZW09WEndU3LB8r1bzb-CY5p8_V-AAzwWM6PY0AAt8CFUQ3vnmwVJ0bFizGUMI8D-W7It5-mJkC9MBrUJ-gXEr7s7oIfc5pa6bUrjXBA-m2Il6r_Z-6L8rYsL1doNIA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgoq8nKuGHh2TgKO_qJXtEa0yY85Z9dz7uEBKdLnds5xRJ7PA3ALOhfGfugdAdeZW09WEndU3LB8r1bzb-CY5p8_V-AAzwWM6PY0AAt8CFUQ3vnmwVJ0bFizGUMI8D-W7It5-mJkC9MBrUJ-gXEr7s7oIfc5pa6bUrjXBA-m2Il6r_Z-6L8rYsL1doNIA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiYfd1IreTSCDCP5fh1eJsrmgKcuX_Di5bjkKeFc34TTcZ6Ws8Y_cigdoatp7L5Dsnm6FPCHt6GO3Ie0r8OidVSkXp5uiY41jKwlC2owOSo6vc2B7m7gjoebyjhFmqIJQ6JO8CAycRx_TrZRJhvVQ-gyj2RRsxLl7Y4o8XoePiLzIlxKTwd1bVGZa_vOg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1000" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiYfd1IreTSCDCP5fh1eJsrmgKcuX_Di5bjkKeFc34TTcZ6Ws8Y_cigdoatp7L5Dsnm6FPCHt6GO3Ie0r8OidVSkXp5uiY41jKwlC2owOSo6vc2B7m7gjoebyjhFmqIJQ6JO8CAycRx_TrZRJhvVQ-gyj2RRsxLl7Y4o8XoePiLzIlxKTwd1bVGZa_vOg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div></span><p></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">There is a rule of thumb in statistics and machine learning known as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias%E2%80%93variance_tradeoff">bias-variance trade-off</a>. In essence this rule of thumb says that reducing the variance in model predictions (opinion polls are examples of a statistical model) tends to see an increase in errors attributable to statistical bias. The opposite is also true. <br /></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhkWSu6Q2NZCrt4p-njr8dgzYY36IG7CtipdgMD_K6HnJ7CbAx8UDwId3B9mLpoN0KxHh8Ucxy6GwXEAoy4iGIENxOTxfV8BCx08o1nWDSyI8HRpU-70Tw4Ckzrh89jpFrEq2AuzTPMHi__hfVx0DjHySOk7nLDFWvWLATxZDHpG-7-R3aLNyv4I8HC0A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="500" data-original-width="750" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhkWSu6Q2NZCrt4p-njr8dgzYY36IG7CtipdgMD_K6HnJ7CbAx8UDwId3B9mLpoN0KxHh8Ucxy6GwXEAoy4iGIENxOTxfV8BCx08o1nWDSyI8HRpU-70Tw4Ckzrh89jpFrEq2AuzTPMHi__hfVx0DjHySOk7nLDFWvWLATxZDHpG-7-R3aLNyv4I8HC0A=w640-h426" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">The
polls prior to the 2019 election had an implausible absence of
variance. After the election, we discovered they also had a substantial
bias, missing the final Election outcome by some 3.3 percentage points. As a result, not one pollster picked the eventual winner of the 2019 Election. <br /></span></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhS6L4RZtvZgw0UZYp5UMzJUI14k8z30j5cTS0Q0W0HK4tZUcz3XbETVo-PDgxTABOiTP1N3WQ-gqmpgr0oyBTXPm9Dr73Y0BV7e_OsqPO6llosWAkD2YDxOsBZwtFU6vOi5tbnRFMUw6rOn98uIw0t0wHyAcQabVOrjmdGrXz3C4dEVCpBMgcCPaR3yQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhS6L4RZtvZgw0UZYp5UMzJUI14k8z30j5cTS0Q0W0HK4tZUcz3XbETVo-PDgxTABOiTP1N3WQ-gqmpgr0oyBTXPm9Dr73Y0BV7e_OsqPO6llosWAkD2YDxOsBZwtFU6vOi5tbnRFMUw6rOn98uIw0t0wHyAcQabVOrjmdGrXz3C4dEVCpBMgcCPaR3yQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></span></span></div><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><br /> Returning to the 2022 Federal Election, </span>we are currently only looking at a collection of six polls, where the absence of variance has a one in five probability of occurring by random chance. At this point I am not concerned, but I am watching closely. </span><p></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiZ_xgmOcVEyooM13RpfJb08JDYVqDpABGkQxWFEzyp65Jzp4vK79zzjI9b9trf0pCMR99T3duy9ZEIYvJvSrNW6ZZhMmGSDrXpxeU3ga7lgcTtogu0zXjoE5x5EPE3EBg2pt0qpY8-Pc_A1oyf2hsTWe1IQOrW-L4Eum0x2TbJn5Cc53clcw42tF9q1A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiZ_xgmOcVEyooM13RpfJb08JDYVqDpABGkQxWFEzyp65Jzp4vK79zzjI9b9trf0pCMR99T3duy9ZEIYvJvSrNW6ZZhMmGSDrXpxeU3ga7lgcTtogu0zXjoE5x5EPE3EBg2pt0qpY8-Pc_A1oyf2hsTWe1IQOrW-L4Eum0x2TbJn5Cc53clcw42tF9q1A=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>My concern will rise if we see further polls in a narrow range. If the absence of variance in the 2022 polls reaches 2-sigma (two standard deviations - 95.45 percent) I would be worried. If it reaches 3-sigma (<span style="white-space: nowrap;">99.73</span> per cent) I would be very worried. At 4-sigma (<span style="white-space: nowrap;">99.9937</span> per cent) ... things would still be better than the 2019 Election ... but I would be alarmed at the state of polling. </p><p><u><b>Update</b></u>: Looking closer at the four pollsters that are tracking closely with each other since the election was called we are still not quite at 2-sigma for these polls. </p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgfs5kXzfk0GR1ZeyrpTb9YD2Hk6Q1wFiQ6mu42zTDYUNoU8YoanYd-BSI0fmlYRHqVDzImGGKlGiGNV1w1gpRmnzEYXie8uHvtE0h02yuH1NHLTKHRkugmUj3WAMRp2D05kX5iEzZtuFYq4i8ZQLiqpIBSUmiXR8tDszO-_n4rgSGv6fWb58oWzIyDUg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgfs5kXzfk0GR1ZeyrpTb9YD2Hk6Q1wFiQ6mu42zTDYUNoU8YoanYd-BSI0fmlYRHqVDzImGGKlGiGNV1w1gpRmnzEYXie8uHvtE0h02yuH1NHLTKHRkugmUj3WAMRp2D05kX5iEzZtuFYq4i8ZQLiqpIBSUmiXR8tDszO-_n4rgSGv6fWb58oWzIyDUg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhwXW3IeiUma3ZUV_dXKKZH8d-Zn1e-Ayz41NWtuKDf9VHWqc709yDW8UtZgJ1zID2l-orKarGs7hi7YLtrNpMbn5PjFcNFUIPkF-i6qn79FU2jy4B-Siv_sf_1KjQUYLzC0r-xc3JCX6Fq_8LtZL1XGAlUhv17a-YFkq7E1bqVtITZOCNZsNDc8f_KvA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhwXW3IeiUma3ZUV_dXKKZH8d-Zn1e-Ayz41NWtuKDf9VHWqc709yDW8UtZgJ1zID2l-orKarGs7hi7YLtrNpMbn5PjFcNFUIPkF-i6qn79FU2jy4B-Siv_sf_1KjQUYLzC0r-xc3JCX6Fq_8LtZL1XGAlUhv17a-YFkq7E1bqVtITZOCNZsNDc8f_KvA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh4X4cwXvkb2ZEYeN64JxT6sEAS12alotjmN3KVbuT20dkOsA-n7a5QkMrTrkVWO508HMfKCb3FEDpTQQGOD3A7ambJi-JF722j76_WM1HKgq_RsLRk39H5In0eSVoIuVMQ0P0RjgtxaWojYded-ajmtPd_bBmTDcA38H-kP2SKM9-ObXj-6Zo6a_OjCg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh4X4cwXvkb2ZEYeN64JxT6sEAS12alotjmN3KVbuT20dkOsA-n7a5QkMrTrkVWO508HMfKCb3FEDpTQQGOD3A7ambJi-JF722j76_WM1HKgq_RsLRk39H5In0eSVoIuVMQ0P0RjgtxaWojYded-ajmtPd_bBmTDcA38H-kP2SKM9-ObXj-6Zo6a_OjCg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br />Mark Graphhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6007032115980019186.post-79206585273225628502022-05-03T10:18:00.000+10:002022-05-03T10:18:12.786+10:00Aggregated polling 46.7 to 53.3 in Labor's favour<p>The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election" target="_blank">opinion polls</a> continue to suggest that Labor has a sizeable lead over the Coalition in two-party preferred votes. The earlier movement to the Coalition appears to have stalled. If the election were held now, and assuming the polls are both accurate and unbiased on average, Labor would be 6.6 percentage points of the Coalition in the final count. This would give Labor a comfortable victory. The Coalition's only hope is that this election sees a repeat of the polling error that we saw in 2019. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj86dAOcVhcFAM4JblQnjp_2hUanuMNzF4Fixe-JhPeR2zWTWVrUdm4XnIPrHOl55rXqFWZdFWNwEGyvBEukroLyB5blsAqXEOgTJt2GGgwGr8YonjAkvTPg-crYmIvOwIg_QoWznLruRnyAWvXAsLEVisqzrBQqZZpbWg8Zv8kNQ4Qiep7hdUo7PGaEw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj86dAOcVhcFAM4JblQnjp_2hUanuMNzF4Fixe-JhPeR2zWTWVrUdm4XnIPrHOl55rXqFWZdFWNwEGyvBEukroLyB5blsAqXEOgTJt2GGgwGr8YonjAkvTPg-crYmIvOwIg_QoWznLruRnyAWvXAsLEVisqzrBQqZZpbWg8Zv8kNQ4Qiep7hdUo7PGaEw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgjscv-yqyhpUhaVOreZf7kB8ZM6kklhj8B4Av7oY1eCGiItSUOitm16kw_bm0Is5lUj5TdO7dQnYAqUvTZSdTZZePIoKXXGPKWDyXEm764s_boBla5RoDajrETEpa1W9mNJQ1Xey9eQ1XtCQGkQNJvnrmKD9lF-ihTik8sUwIbE2MIyXc1F5pHi_ZpyQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgjscv-yqyhpUhaVOreZf7kB8ZM6kklhj8B4Av7oY1eCGiItSUOitm16kw_bm0Is5lUj5TdO7dQnYAqUvTZSdTZZePIoKXXGPKWDyXEm764s_boBla5RoDajrETEpa1W9mNJQ1Xey9eQ1XtCQGkQNJvnrmKD9lF-ihTik8sUwIbE2MIyXc1F5pHi_ZpyQ=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZvYfnDajovUQRNvgEqorwIoqQ73Cnl6GmR0nLF4X3gZmDfD6Iv7FukmgR9WbH6q0DFp-RjuhCLJTo4Zxq9etaYAn0WGYaQhMPBHmpkLR9J6Bh9kxvsTXs_Du44_dq9bqZ1t6q-T_BTmEB2Twbait6rdwIio2E054Kb4eGUHqSp80_8616sEwCF12dqw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZvYfnDajovUQRNvgEqorwIoqQ73Cnl6GmR0nLF4X3gZmDfD6Iv7FukmgR9WbH6q0DFp-RjuhCLJTo4Zxq9etaYAn0WGYaQhMPBHmpkLR9J6Bh9kxvsTXs_Du44_dq9bqZ1t6q-T_BTmEB2Twbait6rdwIio2E054Kb4eGUHqSp80_8616sEwCF12dqw=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi6UuchcoGCRgWQ_gv1_bUAE2HJ8_cFNzzP1G2EoOemgufz9zuUCx46beMxOhLcOpRHKMGHnDmq9Bwh_oRdYYYEBOucSk4FgKRSur8u3UEYYV32AyjITLyV5ixmp2A26oRAIf0aKBYhLMjuLck5gRSmiLtPZ5Qe_-NSUy4jGIbyGg4xVkG1RHm_X-qj7A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi6UuchcoGCRgWQ_gv1_bUAE2HJ8_cFNzzP1G2EoOemgufz9zuUCx46beMxOhLcOpRHKMGHnDmq9Bwh_oRdYYYEBOucSk4FgKRSur8u3UEYYV32AyjITLyV5ixmp2A26oRAIf0aKBYhLMjuLck5gRSmiLtPZ5Qe_-NSUy4jGIbyGg4xVkG1RHm_X-qj7A=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhADhqBMfq66lBI4dmcf32-GfX0IUENobRMwK-LmD0T8BlxGGukDqxJ3QeoAsdp23mnK78Gj7pKZH5V0pNXjr9cOSlUWogMtAhIHoWr1z69QI-g8KW3pWXBfMSHx6ff7de_mYUiXtNagE_cSoJzw6VhWBNgg0g_VYWQ7HSYn_BznQg7Pwr7mXYcsVb3Ag" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhADhqBMfq66lBI4dmcf32-GfX0IUENobRMwK-LmD0T8BlxGGukDqxJ3QeoAsdp23mnK78Gj7pKZH5V0pNXjr9cOSlUWogMtAhIHoWr1z69QI-g8KW3pWXBfMSHx6ff7de_mYUiXtNagE_cSoJzw6VhWBNgg0g_VYWQ7HSYn_BznQg7Pwr7mXYcsVb3Ag=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>The Primary Vote aggregations follow.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiicycTuzEhbd5_kAku78HRKMLueSFv84x8T00OK6H7b575ua1cEOJO6-YaXiQxn-o-0gbWikQuYox5zb4gkClJ8c7S8tUi95XAHZAlQOzleCrSrxM8ZVfUPUDH1F1uFPYTNzo4qV4j61d1SNqdKM94x9rH09Sj8KMW0Qkvlm5lDTN7tkVfh2KsFcwkbg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="2700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiicycTuzEhbd5_kAku78HRKMLueSFv84x8T00OK6H7b575ua1cEOJO6-YaXiQxn-o-0gbWikQuYox5zb4gkClJ8c7S8tUi95XAHZAlQOzleCrSrxM8ZVfUPUDH1F1uFPYTNzo4qV4j61d1SNqdKM94x9rH09Sj8KMW0Qkvlm5lDTN7tkVfh2KsFcwkbg=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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