Betting market update

From time-to-time I have been looking at Centrebet's individual seats betting market. In this morning's 9.30am run, you will note that Centrebet did not have odds for the WA seat of Durack. However, in previous runs, Durack was the safest Coalition seat at Centrebet. For the purpose of today's exercise we will treat it similarly.

The total predicted seats for each party, assuming the favourite in each seat wins, is as follows.

	Coalition	Labor	Other
Seat count	91	57	2

The seat-by-seat probabilities follow.

	State	Labor	Coalition	Other	current	favourite	change
Parramatta	NSW	43.3	49.5	7.1	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Kingsford Smith	NSW	50.5	45.3	4.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lyons	TAS	43.7	50.8	5.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Brand	WA	44.8	51.2	4.0	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Lingiari	NT	52.3	40.2	7.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Petrie	QLD	54.8	42.1	3.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hindmarsh	SA	55.6	40.4	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Eden-Monaro	NSW	39.2	56.4	4.4	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Page	NSW	56.7	38.2	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Brisbane	QLD	38.4	56.9	4.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Moreton	QLD	38.4	56.9	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Blair	QLD	57.8	38.9	3.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lilley	QLD	58.3	38.0	3.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Capricornia	QLD	60.1	34.2	5.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Barton	NSW	60.2	34.2	5.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
McEwen	VIC	60.6	35.1	4.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Franklin	TAS	61.8	31.4	6.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Griffith	QLD	64.6	30.1	5.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Werriwa	NSW	65.6	30.5	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
McMahon	NSW	67.3	29.6	3.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Indi	VIC	4.1	68.1	27.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Robertson	NSW	20.9	68.5	10.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Flynn	QLD	24.8	68.9	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Richmond	NSW	69.0	23.9	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Greenway	NSW	28.1	69.1	2.9	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Chisholm	VIC	69.4	24.8	5.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bonner	QLD	26.2	69.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Solomon	NT	25.1	69.8	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Dobell	NSW	22.4	69.9	7.6	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Hasluck	WA	26.4	70.2	3.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Melbourne	VIC	70.4	2.6	27.0	Other	Labor	TRUE
Adelaide	SA	70.9	23.1	6.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dawson	QLD	22.9	71.3	5.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
La Trobe	VIC	23.2	71.3	5.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Banks	NSW	21.9	73.0	5.2	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Bendigo	VIC	73.1	20.3	6.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Forde	QLD	21.9	73.1	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bruce	VIC	73.3	20.4	6.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Reid	NSW	21.7	73.6	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Longman	QLD	20.7	74.4	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Rankin	QLD	74.8	20.8	4.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Newcastle	NSW	74.9	18.0	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Perth	WA	75.2	18.0	6.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Herbert	QLD	18.2	75.8	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wakefield	SA	76.6	17.5	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fisher	QLD	14.3	76.8	8.9	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Melbourne Ports	VIC	76.9	16.4	6.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Leichhardt	QLD	16.5	77.3	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Swan	WA	18.6	77.5	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Casey	VIC	14.4	78.5	7.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Throsby	NSW	78.9	14.4	6.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fowler	NSW	79.4	16.9	3.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Chifley	NSW	79.9	14.6	5.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Macquarie	NSW	14.7	80.2	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Corangamite	VIC	12.3	80.3	7.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Deakin	VIC	13.3	80.3	6.3	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Braddon	TAS	14.8	80.5	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Dunkley	VIC	12.3	80.6	7.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Fremantle	WA	80.7	13.4	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Canning	WA	14.8	80.8	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Makin	SA	81.2	14.9	4.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Denison	TAS	13.9	4.9	81.2	Other	Other	FALSE
Gilmore	NSW	12.4	81.3	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Fadden	QLD	10.0	81.4	8.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bowman	QLD	13.5	81.4	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Oxley	QLD	81.7	15.0	3.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hinkler	QLD	8.5	81.9	9.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Fairfax	QLD	5.1	81.9	13.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Ryan	QLD	10.1	82.2	7.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
McMillan	VIC	11.6	82.4	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lindsay	NSW	13.7	82.4	3.9	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Stirling	WA	10.8	82.5	6.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Jagajaga	VIC	82.6	11.6	5.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Wright	QLD	5.6	83.0	11.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Isaacs	VIC	83.3	11.7	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Blaxland	NSW	83.3	12.7	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bass	TAS	11.8	83.5	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Ballarat	VIC	83.9	10.3	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Cowan	WA	10.3	83.9	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Sturt	SA	11.0	83.9	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hunter	NSW	83.9	10.9	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Batman	VIC	83.9	5.7	10.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bennelong	NSW	11.9	84.2	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Sydney	NSW	84.3	5.7	10.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Macarthur	NSW	11.1	84.6	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Watson	NSW	84.6	11.1	4.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dickson	QLD	9.8	85.0	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Charlton	NSW	85.1	5.7	9.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Shortland	NSW	85.2	9.7	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Canberra	ACT	85.3	8.8	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Cunningham	NSW	85.4	8.7	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Aston	VIC	8.7	85.4	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kooyong	VIC	6.6	85.5	7.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kingston	SA	85.5	9.8	4.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lalor	VIC	85.7	7.2	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Berowra	NSW	6.7	85.8	7.5	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lyne	NSW	8.8	86.1	5.2	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Boothby	SA	8.9	86.3	4.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hume	NSW	7.3	86.3	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Corio	VIC	86.4	7.3	6.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Flinders	VIC	6.7	86.5	6.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Cook	NSW	6.7	86.5	6.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wentworth	NSW	5.1	86.7	8.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Maribyrnong	VIC	86.8	7.3	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Higgins	VIC	6.7	86.8	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Paterson	NSW	8.0	86.9	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
McPherson	QLD	6.8	86.9	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Grey	SA	6.8	87.0	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Gippsland	VIC	6.8	87.0	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Barker	SA	6.8	87.1	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Calare	NSW	7.3	87.1	5.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Curtin	WA	4.2	87.2	8.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bradfield	NSW	5.9	87.2	6.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Grayndler	NSW	87.2	5.2	7.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Mackellar	NSW	5.2	87.2	7.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
North Sydney	NSW	5.9	87.2	6.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Goldstein	VIC	6.8	87.3	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Scullin	VIC	87.3	6.8	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Moore	WA	6.8	87.3	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Holt	VIC	87.5	7.4	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hotham	VIC	87.5	7.4	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hughes	NSW	8.1	87.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Forrest	WA	6.6	87.7	5.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wide Bay	QLD	5.9	87.7	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mallee	VIC	6.8	87.7	5.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Warringah	NSW	5.2	87.8	7.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Moncrieff	QLD	6.9	87.9	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Calwell	VIC	88.0	6.8	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Gorton	VIC	88.0	6.8	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fraser	ACT	88.1	5.9	6.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Murray	VIC	6.8	88.1	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
New England	NSW	4.2	88.2	7.5	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Gellibrand	VIC	88.3	5.2	6.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Menzies	VIC	5.3	88.4	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Cowper	NSW	7.5	88.6	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mayo	SA	5.3	88.7	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mitchell	NSW	6.9	88.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Parkes	NSW	6.9	88.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Tangney	WA	6.0	88.8	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Port Adelaide	SA	89.1	6.0	4.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Riverina	NSW	6.9	89.1	4.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Pearce	WA	5.2	89.2	5.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Maranoa	QLD	5.3	89.4	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Farrer	NSW	6.0	89.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wills	VIC	89.9	3.5	6.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Groom	QLD	6.1	90.5	3.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kennedy	QLD	4.1	5.1	90.8	Other	Other	FALSE
Wannon	VIC	4.4	91.5	4.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
O'Connor	WA	3.3	93.0	3.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Durack	WA	0.0	100.0	0.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE

Applying the cube law to convert the seats won prediction from the betting market to an estimate of the two-party preferred vote for Labor, we get a result of 46.16 percent for Labor.

Of note elsewhere: Simon Jackman said "the betting markets are posting prices I've never seen".

Midweek update

Today's ReachTEL is consistent with Labor arresting its decline in the polls. However, at 47-53 in the Coalition's favour, the polls are still predicting a sizable Coalition win.

Also, something we have not done for some time is look at how the primary votes have been tracking since Kevin's restoration. For this exercise, I will start with a simple 30-day LOESS regression to plot the trend.

We can look at the primary vote trends from the individual pollsters to get a sense of how consistent or inconsistent the trend is across polling houses:

And we can pop the primary votes into a Bayesian model ... which among its constraints, seeks to ensure the four types of primary vote (Coalition, Labor, Greens and Other) sum to 100 per cent.

Weekly update

Three key polls since last Monday's aggregation:

• Morgan - 47.5-52.5 in the Coalition's favour - moved half a percentage point to the Coalition
• Newspoll - 47-53 in the Coalition's favour - moved a percentage point to Labor
• Nielsen - 47-53 in the Coalition's favour - moved a percentage point to the Coalition

While there has been a lot in today's paper about the significance of Newspoll moving a point to Labor, I suspect it is nothing more than the usual noise we see in randomly sampled opinion polls.

Aggregating these polls gives me a result that suggests Labor's slide in the polls might be coming to an end (but before calling it, let's wait an see what next week's data shows). Collectively, the polls are suggesting a sizable win for the Coalition.

At this point in the blog, it is my normal practice to remind people that I anchor the above Bayesian aggregation with the assumption that the net bias across all of the polling houses sums to zero. You will need to come to your own view about where the actual level of collective systemic bias lies for all the pollsters. At the 2010 Election (with a different set of pollsters), the population voting intention was about one percentage point more in the Coalition's favour compared with the pollster average (see here). In light of the 2010 experience, it is arguably plausible to subtract (say) half a percentage point or more from the above aggregation to adjust for the collective systemic bias across all of the polling houses. [As an aside, you will note that Simon Jackman, who seeks to anchor his Bayesian models with respect to the outcome of past elections regularly produces an aggregated poll that tracks well below the vast majority of individual poll results].

The astute among you will have noticed that I no longer include the Essential poll in the aggregation. I have excluded it because this series does not behave like a polling series. In plain English, it does not bounce around enough.

Aggregating just Newspoll and Nielsen yields ...

Betting Market Update

This morning, in the seat-by-seat probabilities from Centrebet, Eden Monaro has the Coalition as the favourite. Two seats are on a knife edge: Lyons and Kingsford Smith.

If the favourite wins in each case, we would have a new House of Representatives after the election as follows (giving the Coalition and Labor one each of the two coin flip seats):

	Coalition	Labor	Other
Seat count	89	59	2

Turning to the individual seats:

	State	Labor	Coalition	Other	current	favourite	change
Lyons	TAS	47.3	47.3	5.5	Labor	?	?
Kingsford Smith	NSW	47.9	47.9	4.3	Labor	?	?
Parramatta	NSW	49.5	43.3	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Eden-Monaro	NSW	42.9	51.7	5.4	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Lingiari	NT	52.3	40.2	7.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Petrie	QLD	54.8	42.1	3.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hindmarsh	SA	55.6	40.4	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Page	NSW	56.7	38.2	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Brisbane	QLD	38.4	56.9	4.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Moreton	QLD	38.4	56.9	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Blair	QLD	57.8	38.9	3.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Franklin	TAS	59.4	33.8	6.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Barton	NSW	60.2	34.2	5.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lilley	QLD	61.0	35.4	3.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Robertson	NSW	26.3	62.2	11.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Brand	WA	62.4	31.8	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Capricornia	QLD	62.5	31.8	5.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
McEwen	VIC	65.3	30.4	4.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Werriwa	NSW	65.6	30.5	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dobell	NSW	25.3	67.1	7.7	Other	Coalition	TRUE
La Trobe	VIC	27.3	67.2	5.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Griffith	QLD	67.3	27.4	5.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Indi	VIC	4.1	68.1	27.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Flynn	QLD	24.8	68.9	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Richmond	NSW	69.0	23.9	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Greenway	NSW	28.1	69.1	2.9	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Chisholm	VIC	69.4	24.8	5.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bonner	QLD	26.2	69.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Solomon	NT	25.1	69.8	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hasluck	WA	26.4	70.2	3.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Banks	NSW	24.4	70.4	5.2	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Melbourne	VIC	70.4	2.6	27.0	Other	Labor	TRUE
McMahon	NSW	70.4	26.5	3.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Adelaide	SA	70.9	23.1	6.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dawson	QLD	22.9	71.3	5.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Forde	QLD	21.9	73.1	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bruce	VIC	73.3	20.4	6.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Reid	NSW	21.7	73.6	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Longman	QLD	20.7	74.4	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Braddon	TAS	20.7	74.6	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Rankin	QLD	74.8	20.8	4.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Casey	VIC	18.1	74.8	7.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Newcastle	NSW	74.9	18.0	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Leichhardt	QLD	18.1	75.6	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bass	TAS	18.3	76.2	5.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Herbert	QLD	18.3	76.2	5.5	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Fisher	QLD	14.3	76.8	8.9	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Melbourne Ports	VIC	76.9	16.4	6.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fairfax	QLD	6.6	77.1	16.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Swan	WA	18.6	77.5	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wakefield	SA	77.6	16.5	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bendigo	VIC	78.4	15.0	6.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Throsby	NSW	78.9	14.4	6.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fowler	NSW	79.4	16.9	3.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Chifley	NSW	79.9	14.6	5.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Perth	WA	80.0	13.3	6.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Macquarie	NSW	14.7	80.2	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Corangamite	VIC	12.3	80.3	7.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Deakin	VIC	13.3	80.3	6.3	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Gilmore	NSW	13.4	80.4	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Dunkley	VIC	12.3	80.6	7.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Fremantle	WA	80.7	13.4	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Canning	WA	14.8	80.8	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Makin	SA	81.2	14.9	4.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Denison	TAS	13.9	4.9	81.2	Other	Other	FALSE
Fadden	QLD	10.0	81.4	8.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bowman	QLD	13.5	81.4	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Oxley	QLD	81.7	15.0	3.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hinkler	QLD	8.5	81.9	9.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Ryan	QLD	10.1	82.2	7.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
McMillan	VIC	11.6	82.4	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bennelong	NSW	13.7	82.4	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lindsay	NSW	13.7	82.4	3.9	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Stirling	WA	10.8	82.5	6.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Jagajaga	VIC	82.6	11.6	5.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Wright	QLD	5.6	83.0	11.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Isaacs	VIC	83.3	11.7	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Sturt	SA	11.2	83.6	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Ballarat	VIC	83.9	10.3	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Cowan	WA	10.3	83.9	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hunter	NSW	83.9	10.9	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Batman	VIC	83.9	5.7	10.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Sydney	NSW	84.3	5.7	10.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Macarthur	NSW	11.1	84.6	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Watson	NSW	84.6	11.1	4.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Blaxland	NSW	84.9	11.1	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dickson	QLD	9.8	85.0	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Charlton	NSW	85.1	5.7	9.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Shortland	NSW	85.2	9.7	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Canberra	ACT	85.3	8.8	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Cunningham	NSW	85.4	8.7	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Aston	VIC	8.7	85.4	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kooyong	VIC	6.6	85.5	7.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kingston	SA	85.5	9.8	4.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lalor	VIC	85.7	7.2	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Kennedy	QLD	5.0	9.4	85.7	Other	Other	FALSE
Berowra	NSW	6.7	85.8	7.5	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lyne	NSW	8.8	86.1	5.2	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Boothby	SA	8.9	86.3	4.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hume	NSW	7.3	86.3	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Corio	VIC	86.4	7.3	6.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Flinders	VIC	6.7	86.5	6.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Cook	NSW	6.7	86.5	6.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wentworth	NSW	5.1	86.7	8.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Maribyrnong	VIC	86.8	7.3	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Higgins	VIC	6.7	86.8	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Paterson	NSW	8.0	86.9	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
McPherson	QLD	6.8	86.9	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Grey	SA	6.8	87.0	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Gippsland	VIC	6.8	87.0	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Barker	SA	6.8	87.1	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Calare	NSW	7.3	87.1	5.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Curtin	WA	4.2	87.2	8.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bradfield	NSW	5.9	87.2	6.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Grayndler	NSW	87.2	5.2	7.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Mackellar	NSW	5.2	87.2	7.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
North Sydney	NSW	5.9	87.2	6.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Goldstein	VIC	6.8	87.3	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Scullin	VIC	87.3	6.8	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Moore	WA	6.8	87.3	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Holt	VIC	87.5	7.4	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hotham	VIC	87.5	7.4	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hughes	NSW	8.1	87.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Forrest	WA	6.6	87.7	5.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wide Bay	QLD	5.9	87.7	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mallee	VIC	6.8	87.7	5.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Warringah	NSW	5.2	87.8	7.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Moncrieff	QLD	6.9	87.9	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Calwell	VIC	88.0	6.8	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Gorton	VIC	88.0	6.8	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fraser	ACT	88.1	5.9	6.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
New England	NSW	6.8	88.1	5.0	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Murray	VIC	6.8	88.1	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Gellibrand	VIC	88.3	5.2	6.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Menzies	VIC	5.3	88.4	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Cowper	NSW	7.5	88.6	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mayo	SA	5.3	88.7	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mitchell	NSW	6.9	88.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Parkes	NSW	6.9	88.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Tangney	WA	6.0	88.8	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Port Adelaide	SA	89.1	6.0	4.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Riverina	NSW	6.9	89.1	4.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Pearce	WA	5.2	89.2	5.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Maranoa	QLD	5.3	89.4	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Farrer	NSW	6.0	89.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wills	VIC	89.9	3.5	6.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Groom	QLD	6.1	90.5	3.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wannon	VIC	4.4	91.5	4.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
O'Connor	WA	3.3	93.0	3.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Durack	WA	3.3	93.9	2.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE

If we apply the cube rule to these seat totals, it yields a notional TPP vote share for Labor of 46.6 per cent. This is a better result for the Coalition than most of the current opinion polls.

Nielsen 47-53

Today's Nielsen continues the string of poor poll results for Labor.

If I plug today's Nielson poll into my regular aggregation ...

Updating my Newspoll/Nielsen only aggregation ... notwithstanding the recent slump, Mr Rudd is still doing better in the polls than under Ms Gillard's last three months.

Betting market update

While the Centrebet individual seat odds have moved around a little from last week (on average, perhaps just a touch towards the Coalition), tonight's run (at 7.53pm) yielded much the same overall outcome as last week: the favourites suggest a fairly compelling Coalition win.

	Coalition	Labor	Other
Seat count	87	61	2

The individual seat outcome probabilities are as follows, ordered from the least probable to the most probable. Of note: while the I have marked Kingsford Smith as a Labor retain, the probabilities have it as a coin toss.

	State	Labor	Coalition	Other	current	favourite	change
Kingsford Smith	NSW	47.9	47.9	4.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Eden-Monaro	NSW	50.4	44.1	5.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Parramatta	NSW	50.8	42.1	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lingiari	NT	52.3	40.2	7.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Petrie	QLD	54.8	42.1	3.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Page	NSW	56.7	38.2	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Brisbane	QLD	38.4	56.9	4.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Moreton	QLD	38.4	56.9	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Blair	QLD	57.8	38.9	3.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lyons	TAS	58.6	35.9	5.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Barton	NSW	60.2	34.2	5.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lilley	QLD	61.0	35.4	3.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hindmarsh	SA	61.2	34.8	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Robertson	NSW	26.3	62.2	11.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Brand	WA	62.4	31.8	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Capricornia	QLD	62.5	31.8	5.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
McEwen	VIC	65.3	30.4	4.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Franklin	TAS	66.3	26.9	6.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dobell	NSW	25.3	67.1	7.7	Other	Coalition	TRUE
La Trobe	VIC	27.3	67.2	5.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Banks	NSW	27.4	67.4	5.2	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Indi	VIC	4.1	68.1	27.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Dawson	QLD	25.7	68.4	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Flynn	QLD	24.8	68.9	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Richmond	NSW	69.0	23.9	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Greenway	NSW	28.1	69.1	2.9	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Chisholm	VIC	69.4	24.8	5.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bonner	QLD	26.2	69.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Solomon	NT	25.1	69.8	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hasluck	WA	26.4	70.2	3.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Melbourne	VIC	70.4	2.6	27.0	Other	Labor	TRUE
Longman	QLD	24.5	70.5	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Werriwa	NSW	70.8	25.3	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Adelaide	SA	70.9	23.1	6.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Forde	QLD	23.8	71.3	4.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
McMahon	NSW	71.9	25.0	3.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Braddon	TAS	22.0	73.3	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Bruce	VIC	73.3	20.4	6.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Reid	NSW	21.7	73.6	4.7	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Bass	TAS	20.5	74.0	5.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Herbert	QLD	20.5	74.0	5.5	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Rankin	QLD	74.8	20.8	4.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Casey	VIC	18.1	74.8	7.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Newcastle	NSW	74.9	18.0	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Denison	TAS	19.5	4.9	75.6	Other	Other	FALSE
Leichhardt	QLD	18.1	75.6	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Griffith	QLD	75.9	18.8	5.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fisher	QLD	14.3	76.8	8.9	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Melbourne Ports	VIC	76.9	16.4	6.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fairfax	QLD	6.6	77.1	16.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Swan	WA	18.6	77.5	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wakefield	SA	77.6	16.5	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Bendigo	VIC	78.4	15.0	6.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Throsby	NSW	78.9	14.4	6.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hinkler	QLD	10.5	79.2	10.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Fowler	NSW	79.4	16.9	3.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Chifley	NSW	79.9	14.6	5.5	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Perth	WA	80.0	13.3	6.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Macquarie	NSW	14.7	80.2	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Corangamite	VIC	12.3	80.3	7.5	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Deakin	VIC	13.3	80.3	6.3	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Gilmore	NSW	13.4	80.4	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Dunkley	VIC	12.3	80.6	7.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Fremantle	WA	80.7	13.4	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Canning	WA	14.8	80.8	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Makin	SA	81.2	14.9	4.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fadden	QLD	10.0	81.4	8.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bowman	QLD	13.5	81.4	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Oxley	QLD	81.7	15.0	3.3	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Ryan	QLD	10.1	82.2	7.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
McMillan	VIC	11.6	82.4	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bennelong	NSW	13.7	82.4	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lindsay	NSW	13.7	82.4	3.9	Labor	Coalition	TRUE
Stirling	WA	10.8	82.5	6.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Jagajaga	VIC	82.6	11.6	5.8	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Wright	QLD	5.6	83.0	11.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Isaacs	VIC	83.3	11.7	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Sturt	SA	11.2	83.6	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Ballarat	VIC	83.9	10.3	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Cowan	WA	10.3	83.9	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hunter	NSW	83.9	10.9	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Batman	VIC	83.9	5.7	10.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Sydney	NSW	84.3	5.7	10.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Macarthur	NSW	11.1	84.6	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Watson	NSW	84.6	11.1	4.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Blaxland	NSW	84.9	11.1	3.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Dickson	QLD	9.8	85.0	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Charlton	NSW	85.1	5.7	9.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Shortland	NSW	85.2	9.7	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Canberra	ACT	85.3	8.8	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Cunningham	NSW	85.4	8.7	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Aston	VIC	8.7	85.4	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kooyong	VIC	6.6	85.5	7.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Kingston	SA	85.5	9.8	4.7	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Lalor	VIC	85.7	7.2	7.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Kennedy	QLD	5.0	9.4	85.7	Other	Other	FALSE
Berowra	NSW	6.7	85.8	7.5	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Lyne	NSW	8.8	86.1	5.2	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Boothby	SA	8.9	86.3	4.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Hume	NSW	7.3	86.3	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Corio	VIC	86.4	7.3	6.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Flinders	VIC	6.7	86.5	6.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Cook	NSW	6.7	86.5	6.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wentworth	NSW	5.1	86.7	8.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Maribyrnong	VIC	86.8	7.3	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Higgins	VIC	6.7	86.8	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Paterson	NSW	8.0	86.9	5.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
McPherson	QLD	6.8	86.9	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Grey	SA	6.8	87.0	6.3	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Gippsland	VIC	6.8	87.0	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Barker	SA	6.8	87.1	6.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Calare	NSW	7.3	87.1	5.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Curtin	WA	4.2	87.2	8.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Bradfield	NSW	5.9	87.2	6.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Grayndler	NSW	87.2	5.2	7.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Mackellar	NSW	5.2	87.2	7.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
North Sydney	NSW	5.9	87.2	6.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Goldstein	VIC	6.8	87.3	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Scullin	VIC	87.3	6.8	5.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Moore	WA	6.8	87.3	5.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Holt	VIC	87.5	7.4	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hotham	VIC	87.5	7.4	5.1	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Hughes	NSW	8.1	87.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Forrest	WA	6.6	87.7	5.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wide Bay	QLD	5.9	87.7	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mallee	VIC	6.8	87.7	5.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Warringah	NSW	5.2	87.8	7.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Moncrieff	QLD	6.9	87.9	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Calwell	VIC	88.0	6.8	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Gorton	VIC	88.0	6.8	5.2	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Fraser	ACT	88.1	5.9	6.0	Labor	Labor	FALSE
New England	NSW	6.8	88.1	5.0	Other	Coalition	TRUE
Murray	VIC	6.8	88.1	5.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Gellibrand	VIC	88.3	5.2	6.4	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Menzies	VIC	5.3	88.4	6.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Cowper	NSW	7.5	88.6	3.9	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mayo	SA	5.3	88.7	6.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Mitchell	NSW	6.9	88.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Parkes	NSW	6.9	88.7	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Tangney	WA	6.0	88.8	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Port Adelaide	SA	89.1	6.0	4.9	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Riverina	NSW	6.9	89.1	4.0	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Pearce	WA	5.2	89.2	5.6	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Maranoa	QLD	5.3	89.4	5.2	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Farrer	NSW	6.0	89.5	4.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wills	VIC	89.9	3.5	6.6	Labor	Labor	FALSE
Groom	QLD	6.1	90.5	3.4	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Wannon	VIC	4.4	91.5	4.1	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
O'Connor	WA	3.3	93.0	3.7	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE
Durack	WA	3.3	93.9	2.8	Coalition	Coalition	FALSE

Two 50/50 polls

Over the past 24 hours, we have seen three new polls:

• Essential at 50/50 moved a point in Labor's favour since the previous Essential poll
• AMR at 50/50 moved a point in the Coalition's favour since the previous AMR poll
• Lonergan at 48-52 in the Coalition's favour and a movement of two points to the Coalition since the previous Lonergan poll.

I will look at these polls more closely in my next update. 

Monday update

At the end of week two in the five week election campaign there was a slew of individual marginal seat polls, all of which were pretty ugly for Labor. At the start of the third week in the campaign, we have three national polls in. Again, they were pretty ugly for Labor:

• Newspoll came in at 46 to 54 in the Coalition's favour - a two point movement to the Coalition.
• Morgan came in at 48 to 52 in the Coalition's favour - a half point movement to the Coalition.
• Galaxy came in at 48 to 52 in the Coalition's favour - a one point movement to the Coalition.

If it were a normal polling week and Newspoll had moved two points in a week, at this point in the blog I would be noting that a two point movement is not unusual. Furthermore, it is far more likely to be noise than signal (and in most circumstances one would expect it to be followed quickly by a poll move in the opposite direction). Isolated moves in opinion polling data need to be corroborated, before being given any analytical weight.

However, this is not a normal polling week with one poll bouncing around within its normal margin of error. So far, all of the national polls have moved to the Coalition this week. And this movement is consistent with the numerous marginal seat polls we saw over the weekend, which also suggested a move in voting intention to the Coalition. It may not be by as much as two points, but some some movement towards the Coalition in the past week is the most likely scenario. This can be seen in the following aggregation (Note: updated chart from original post to accommodate an expanded Newspoll sample size).

At this point in the blog, it is my normal practice to remind people that I anchor the above Bayesian aggregation with the assumption that the net bias across all of the polling houses sums to zero. You will need to come to your own view about where the actual level of collective systemic bias lies for all the pollsters. At the 2010 Election (with a different set of pollsters), the population voting intention was about one percentage point more in the Coalition's favour compared with the pollster average (see here). In light of the 2010 experience, it is arguably plausible to subtract (say) half a percentage point or more from the above aggregation to adjust for the collective systemic bias across all of the polling houses. [As an aside, you will note that Simon Jackman, who seeks to anchor his Bayesian models with respect to the outcome of past elections regularly produces an aggregated poll that tracks well below the vast majority of individual poll results].

Having looked at the aggregation, let's pick through the entrails of the latest Newspoll. The recent changes in the attitudinal polling is perhaps the most interesting aspect of this latest release.