Mark the Ballot
Psephology by the numbers
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Bayesian Aggregation
Betting Markets
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Friday, December 12, 2025
Some movement on the betting market
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Sunday, November 9, 2025
Polling Update
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It's time for another polling update. We will start with the primary voting intention polls. Of note, there is a substantial divergence ...
Wednesday, September 17, 2025
Polling Update
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The remarkable thing in the latest batch of polls is the continued rise of the One Nation Party.
Friday, August 8, 2025
Polling update
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Two party preferred
Summary outcome of the 2025 Australian Federal Election
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Sunday, May 4, 2025
Wow
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Last night I was asked if I was surprised by the result. The short answer is yes! Not because Labor won (that was my working assumption) but...
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Saturday, May 3, 2025
Election day - betting markets
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There are two posts this morning. This is the betting market post, and separately there is a polls update . National Winner At 6.30am this ...
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