Mark the Ballot

I am now applying the same Bayesian aggregation techniques I use to the opinion polling. I wrote extensively about those techniques here . T...

Now that we have enough data (around 40 national polls since the last election), we can start looking at a Bayesian aggregation using a Gaus...

It's time for another polling update. We will start with the primary voting intention polls. Of note, there is a substantial divergence ...

The remarkable thing in the latest batch of polls is the continued rise of the One Nation Party.  

Two party preferred

Last night I was asked if I was surprised by the result. The short answer is yes! Not because Labor won (that was my working assumption) but...

There are two posts this morning. This is the betting market post, and separately there is a polls update . National Winner At 6.30am this ...

There are two posts this morning. This is the polls post, and separately there is a betting market update . Two-party preferred There is an ...