Mark the Ballot

One Nation's primary vote has surged from ~9% in mid-2025 to 23.5% in my latest poll aggregation. That's nearly 4x their 2025 federa...

 Preferred Prime Minister

 Two Party Preferred Primary votes

I am now applying the same Bayesian aggregation techniques I use to the opinion polling. I wrote extensively about those techniques here . T...

Now that we have enough data (around 40 national polls since the last election), we can start looking at a Bayesian aggregation using a Gaus...

It's time for another polling update. We will start with the primary voting intention polls. Of note, there is a substantial divergence ...

The remarkable thing in the latest batch of polls is the continued rise of the One Nation Party.  

Two party preferred