Mark the Ballot

Probabilities The probability chart tells a story of steady erosion. For most of 2025, Labor sat comfortably above 70 percent, a position th...

Because the reaction to the May Budget appears to have been both quick and significant, I have loosened the day-to-day innovation term in my...

Primary votes While it looks like Labor and the Coalition have each fallen a similar amount in the polls, around 7 and 7.3 percentage points...

For decades, Australian political watchers have leaned on one figure above all others. Not the primary vote share. Not preferred prime minis...

One Nation's primary vote has surged from ~9% in mid-2025 to 23.5% in my latest poll aggregation. That's nearly 4x their 2025 federa...

 Preferred Prime Minister

 Two Party Preferred Primary votes

I am now applying the same Bayesian aggregation techniques I use to the opinion polling. I wrote extensively about those techniques here . T...

Now that we have enough data (around 40 national polls since the last election), we can start looking at a Bayesian aggregation using a Gaus...