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Friday, May 27, 2016

ReachTEL 48-52

The latest ReachTEL poll has Labor in a winning position with 52 per cent of the national two-party preferred vote, compared with the Coalition on 48 per cent: a four point lead. This is the third poll in a row where ReachTEL has allocated preferences using respondent preferences, rather than preference flows from the previous election. The respondent preferences appear to favour Labor by around a percentage point on average (but contained largely to the first and third polls). In past elections, respondent preferences have proved unreliable.

Because of this methodological difference, I have decided to treat these latest ReachTEL polls as a new series (labeled RT2 on the charts). This raises continuity issues: as it changes the property of the  sum to zero assumption, moving it slightly to Labor. As a consequence, I will use the TPP model that is anchored to the result at the last election from here on to the election.

The sum-to-zero TPP model has the Coalition on 49.3 per cent.



The TPP model anchored to the outcome of the previous election has the Coalition on 50.2 per cent.


Of note: both charts suggest that the Coalition held steady early in the campaign, bur has declined in the last week or so.








at No comments:

Full betting market update

Another Friday; another update. We start with the Coalition win odds from this morning.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-05-27 Betfair 1.31 3.66 73.64
2016-05-27 CrownBet 1.30 3.45 72.63
2016-05-27 Ladbrokes 1.33 3.10 69.98
2016-05-27 Luxbet 1.28 3.60 73.77
2016-05-27 Sportsbet 1.30 3.50 72.92
2016-05-27 TABtouch 1.30 3.25 71.43
2016-05-27 William Hill 1.30 3.40 72.34

This next table is the implied win probabilities over week. On average, the Coalition ends the week just over a percentage point down on where they started.

Fr 20-May Sa 21-May Su 22-May Mo 23-May Tu 24-May We 25-May Th 26-May Fr 27-May
Betfair 75.80 75.19 74.51 73.10 72.14 72.65 72.43 73.64
CrownBet 72.63 72.63 72.63 72.63 72.63 72.63 72.63 72.63
Ladbrokes 72.34 72.34 72.34 71.74 69.98 69.98 69.98 69.98
Luxbet 73.77 73.77 73.77 73.77 74.04 74.04 73.77 73.77
Sportsbet 72.92 72.92 72.92 72.92 72.92 72.92 72.92 72.92
TABtouch 72.94 74.49 74.49 74.49 74.49 74.49 71.43 71.43
William Hill 73.77 75.25 75.25 75.25 75.25 75.25 72.34 72.34
Average 73.45 73.80 73.70 73.41 73.06 73.14 72.21 72.39

The usual charts follow.





And on to look at the individual seats market from Sportsbet. This time I will start with the charts, before going to the miles of tables.



The next table is a tally of seats based on all favourites winning their seat (and sharing equal favourites).

Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team PUP
0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0 0.0

A list of seats with equal favourites follows. The big news here is today's addition of Hindmarsh (SA) to the list.

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team PUP 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Hindmarsh (SA) 3.01 41.79 3.01 0.0 0.0 41.79 10.42 0.0 Coalition, Labor
Swan (WA) 3.29 45.69 5.34 0.0 0.0 45.69 0.00 0.0 Coalition, Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.77 48.23 1.77 0.0 0.0 48.23 0.00 0.0 Coalition, Labor

The complete list of Seat Odds is next. Looks like we have a new column with odds on the Palmer United Party for the first time. The funny thing here is the odds are for the seat of Herbert (Qld) which covers Townsville (where workers were sacked from Clive Palmer's Queensland Nickel). There are no odds for Clive in Fairfax.

$ 1 Territory Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Liberal National Nick Xenophon Team PUP
Electorate
Adelaide (SA) - 26.0 4.00 21.00 - - 1.33 - - 9.0 -
Aston (VIC) - 34.0 1.05 26.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Ballarat (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Banks (NSW) - 26.0 1.50 21.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Barker (SA) - 26.0 1.05 26.00 - - 26.00 - - 7.0 -
Barton (NSW) - 26.0 8.50 26.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Bass (TAS) - 26.0 1.25 26.00 - - 3.75 - - - -
Batman (VIC) - 26.0 26.00 1.50 - - 2.50 - - - -
Bendigo (VIC) - 26.0 6.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - - -
Bennelong (NSW) - 26.0 1.10 26.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Berowra (NSW) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Blair (QLD) - 26.0 8.50 26.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Blaxland (NSW) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Bonner (QLD) - 26.0 1.50 26.00 - - 2.30 - - - -
Boothby (SA) - 26.0 1.15 26.00 - - 9.00 - - 7.0 -
Bowman (QLD) - 17.0 1.15 26.00 - - 5.50 - - - -
Braddon (TAS) - 21.0 1.45 26.00 - - 2.60 - - - -
Bradfield (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Brand (WA) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Brisbane (QLD) - 26.0 1.62 21.00 - - 2.20 - - - -
Bruce (VIC) - 26.0 4.00 26.00 - - 1.22 - - - -
Burt (WA) - 34.0 2.50 - - - 1.50 - - - -
Calare (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - 16.0 -
Calwell (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Canberra (ACT) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Canning (WA) - 26.0 1.10 26.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Capricornia (QLD) - 26.0 3.50 26.00 - - 1.28 - - - -
Casey (VIC) - 26.0 1.17 26.00 - - 4.50 - - - -
Chifley (NSW) - 21.0 16.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Chisholm (VIC) - 26.0 4.20 21.00 - - 1.20 - - - -
Cook (NSW) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Corangamite (VIC) - 26.0 1.75 21.00 - - 2.00 - - - -
Corio (VIC) - 16.0 16.00 16.00 - - 1.02 - - - -
Cowan (WA) - 26.0 1.67 26.00 - - 2.20 - - - -
Cowper (NSW) - 11.0 1.01 26.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Cunningham (NSW) - 13.0 21.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Curtin (WA) - 26.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Dawson (QLD) - 26.0 1.20 26.00 - - 4.00 - - - -
Deakin (VIC) - 26.0 1.75 15.00 - - 2.00 - - - -
Denison (TAS) - 26.0 21.00 21.00 1.10 - 6.00 - - - -
Dickson (QLD) - 26.0 1.35 26.00 - - 3.00 - - - -
Dobell (NSW) - 34.0 2.50 34.00 - - 1.50 - - - -
Dunkley (VIC) - 41.0 1.58 31.00 - - 2.40 - - - -
Durack (WA) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Eden Monaro (NSW) - 51.0 1.87 51.00 - - 1.87 - - - -
Fadden (QLD) - 16.0 1.01 26.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Fairfax (QLD) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Farrer (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 21.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Fenner (ACT) - 21.0 16.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Fisher (QLD) - 17.0 1.10 21.00 - - 7.50 - - - -
Flinders (VIC) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Flynn (QLD) - 16.0 1.25 34.00 - - 3.50 - - - -
Forde (QLD) - 26.0 1.50 26.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Forrest (WA) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Fowler (NSW) - 16.0 21.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Franklin (TAS) - 26.0 8.00 11.00 - - 1.07 - - - -
Fremantle (WA) - 26.0 13.00 4.20 - - 1.20 - - - -
Gelibrand (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 12.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Gilmore (NSW) - 31.0 1.45 26.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Gippsland (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Goldstein (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 34.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Gorton (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 16.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Grayndler (NSW) - 26.0 17.00 3.35 - - 1.30 - - - -
Greenway (NSW) - 26.0 5.00 26.00 - - 1.12 - - - -
Grey (SA) - 26.0 1.02 26.00 - - 7.00 - - 16.0 -
Griffith (QLD) - 34.0 8.50 23.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Groom (QLD) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - 21.0 -
Hasluck (WA) - 26.0 2.00 21.00 - - 1.70 - - - -
Herbert (QLD) - 34.0 1.25 26.00 - - 3.50 - - - 21.0
Higgins (VIC) - 26.0 1.15 7.50 - - 16.00 - - 11.0 -
Hindmarsh (SA) - 26.0 1.87 26.00 - - 1.87 - - 7.5 -
Hinkler (QLD) - 15.0 1.15 26.00 - - 5.00 - - - -
Holt (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Hotham (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Hughes (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Hume (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 15.00 - - - -
Hunter(NSW) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Indi (VIC) - 26.0 - 51.00 1.15 - 16.00 11.0 6.0 - -
Isaacs (VIC) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Jagajaga (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Kennedy (QLD) - 26.0 4.25 26.00 - 1.2 21.00 - - - -
Kingsford Smith (NSW) - 26.0 8.50 11.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Kingston (SA) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - 8.0 -
Kooyong (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
La Trobe (Vic) - 26.0 1.60 21.00 - - 2.25 - - - -
Lalor (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Leichhardt (QLD) - 12.0 1.30 26.00 - - 3.20 - - - -
Lilley (QLD) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Lindsay (NSW) - 34.0 1.35 34.00 - - 2.60 - - 21.0 -
Lingiari (NT) 51.0 26.0 3.00 21.00 - - 1.30 - - - -
Longman (QLD) - 26.0 1.20 26.00 - - 4.00 - - - -
Lyne (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - - -
Lyons (TAS) - 16.0 1.55 26.00 - - 2.35 - - - -
Macarthur (NSW) - 21.0 2.00 34.00 - - 1.75 - - 16.0 -
Mackellar (NSW) - - 1.01 26.00 12.00 - 21.00 - - - -
Macquarie (NSW) - 26.0 1.50 26.00 - - 2.20 - - - -
Makin (SA) - 26.0 16.00 26.00 - - 1.08 - - 7.0 -
Mallee (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Maranoa (QLD) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Maribyrnong (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Mayo (SA) - 21.0 1.10 31.00 - - 31.00 - - 5.0 -
McEwen (VIC) - 26.0 3.40 21.00 - - 1.30 - - - -
McMahon (NSW) - 26.0 11.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
McMillan (VIC) - 21.0 1.02 26.00 - - 11.00 - - - -
McPherson (QLD) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Melbourne (VIC) - 26.0 21.00 1.05 - - 9.00 - - - -
Melbourne Ports (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 5.00 - - 1.10 - - - -
Menzies (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 11.00 - 26.00 - - - -
Mitchell (NSW) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Moncrieff (QLD) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Moore (WA) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Moreton (QLD) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - 16.0 -
Murray (VIC) - 16.0 - 26.00 - - 21.00 2.1 1.6 - -
New England (NSW) - 26.0 1.45 26.00 2.60 - 26.00 - - - -
Newcastle (NSW) - 17.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.04 - - - -
North Sydney (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 21.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
O'Connor (WA) - 16.0 1.01 21.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Oxley (QLD) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Page (NSW) - 26.0 1.80 16.00 - - 1.95 - - - -
Parkes (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - - -
Parramatta (NSW) - 26.0 5.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - - -
Paterson (NSW) - 17.0 3.75 26.00 - - 1.25 - - - -
Pearce (WA) - 26.0 1.20 21.00 - - 4.20 - - - -
Perth (WA) - 51.0 8.00 21.00 - - 1.03 - - - -
Petrie (QLD) - 26.0 3.00 41.00 - - 1.35 - - - -
Port Adelaide (SA) - 26.0 21.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - 11.0 -
Rankin (QLD) - 21.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Reid (NSW) - 26.0 1.55 26.00 - - 2.25 - - - -
Richmond (NSW) - 26.0 4.50 5.00 - - 1.45 - - - -
Riverina (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Robertson (NSW) - 34.0 1.57 7.00 - - 2.25 - - - -
Ryan (QLD) - 26.0 1.10 16.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Scullin (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 8.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Shortland (NSW) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Solomon (NT) - 26.0 2.75 26.00 101.00 - 1.40 - - - -
Stirling (WA) - 26.0 1.44 26.00 - - 2.55 - - - -
Sturt (SA) - - 1.12 26.00 - - 7.00 - - 5.5 -
Swan (WA) - 26.0 1.87 16.00 - - 1.87 - - - -
Sydney (NSW) - 26.0 21.00 5.00 - - 1.17 - - - -
Tangney (WA) - - 1.01 21.00 12.00 - 26.00 - - - -
Wakefield (SA) - 26.0 16.00 26.00 - - 1.08 - - 6.0 -
Wannon (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Warringah (NSW) - 9.0 1.06 26.00 - - 21.00 - - 8.0 -
Watson (NSW) - 26.0 11.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Wentworth (NSW) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Werriwa (NSW) - 26.0 6.00 34.00 - - 1.10 - - - -
Whitlam (NSW) - 16.0 34.00 16.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Wide Bay (QLD) - 11.0 1.10 26.00 - - 7.00 - - - -
Wills (VIC) - 41.0 31.00 4.50 - - 1.16 - - - -
Wright (QLD) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 13.00 - - - -

Followed by the complete list of seat probabilities (sorted by the Coalition's probability).

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team PUP 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Whitlam (NSW) 5.46 2.57 5.46 - - 86.51 - - Labor
Wills (VIC) 2.14 2.83 19.48 - - 75.56 - - Labor
Batman (VIC) 3.36 3.36 58.30 - - 34.98 - - Green
Port Adelaide (SA) 3.17 3.92 3.92 - - 81.51 7.48 - Labor
Denison (TAS) 3.18 3.94 3.94 75.17 - 13.78 - - Independent
Cunningham (NSW) 6.62 4.10 4.10 - - 85.19 - - Labor
Melbourne (VIC) 3.35 4.14 82.85 - - 9.67 - - Green
Fowler (NSW) 5.45 4.15 4.15 - - 86.26 - - Labor
Sydney (NSW) 3.37 4.17 17.53 - - 74.92 - - Labor
Grayndler (NSW) 3.30 5.05 25.62 - - 66.03 - - Labor
Wakefield (SA) 3.12 5.07 3.12 - - 75.16 13.53 - Labor
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 3.18 5.17 16.53 - - 75.13 - - Labor
Makin (SA) 3.18 5.17 3.18 - - 76.64 11.82 - Labor
Scullin (VIC) 3.26 5.30 10.61 - - 80.82 - - Labor
Gelibrand (VIC) 3.28 5.32 7.10 - - 84.31 - - Labor
Corio (VIC) 5.35 5.35 5.35 - - 83.95 - - Labor
Gorton (VIC) 3.33 5.42 5.42 - - 85.83 - - Labor
Chifley (NSW) 4.15 5.45 4.15 - - 86.26 - - Labor
Fenner (ACT) 4.15 5.45 4.15 - - 86.26 - - Labor
Fremantle (WA) 3.24 6.48 20.06 - - 70.22 - - Labor
Kingston (SA) 3.22 6.98 3.22 - - 76.12 10.47 - Labor
Hotham (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - - Labor
Ballarat (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - - Labor
Holt (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - - Labor
Shortland (NSW) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - - Labor
Jagajaga (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - - Labor
Rankin (QLD) 4.11 7.19 3.32 - - 85.39 - - Labor
Newcastle (NSW) 5.11 7.24 4.14 - - 83.52 - - Labor
Blaxland (NSW) 3.34 7.24 3.34 - - 86.07 - - Labor
Hunter(NSW) 3.34 7.24 3.34 - - 86.07 - - Labor
Canberra (ACT) 3.34 7.24 3.34 - - 86.07 - - Labor
Maribyrnong (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 - - Labor
Lalor (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 - - Labor
Calwell (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 - - Labor
McMahon (NSW) 3.32 7.85 3.32 - - 85.51 - - Labor
Watson (NSW) 3.32 7.85 3.32 - - 85.51 - - Labor
Moreton (QLD) 3.16 9.65 3.91 - - 78.15 5.13 - Labor
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 3.21 9.81 7.58 - - 79.40 - - Labor
Lilley (QLD) 3.33 10.18 4.12 - - 82.38 - - Labor
Oxley (QLD) 3.33 10.18 4.12 - - 82.38 - - Labor
Brand (WA) 3.33 10.18 4.12 - - 82.38 - - Labor
Isaacs (VIC) 3.33 10.18 4.12 - - 82.38 - - Labor
Blair (QLD) 3.35 10.26 3.35 - - 83.04 - - Labor
Barton (NSW) 3.35 10.26 3.35 - - 83.04 - - Labor
Griffith (QLD) 2.57 10.29 3.80 - - 83.33 - - Labor
Franklin (TAS) 3.23 10.51 7.65 - - 78.61 - - Labor
Perth (WA) 1.69 10.75 4.09 - - 83.47 - - Labor
Bendigo (VIC) 3.34 14.46 3.34 - - 78.87 - - Labor
Werriwa (NSW) 3.36 14.57 2.57 - - 79.49 - - Labor
Parramatta (NSW) 3.24 16.86 3.24 - - 76.65 - - Labor
Greenway (NSW) 3.29 17.10 3.29 - - 76.33 - - Labor
Richmond (NSW) 3.34 19.32 17.39 - - 59.95 - - Labor
Kennedy (QLD) 3.22 19.72 3.22 - 69.84 3.99 - - KAP (Bob Katter)
Chisholm (VIC) 3.32 20.57 4.11 - - 71.99 - - Labor
Indi (VIC) 3.08 20.64 1.57 69.69 - 5.01 - - Independent
Adelaide (SA) 3.21 20.85 3.97 - - 62.71 9.27 - Labor
Bruce (VIC) 3.35 21.80 3.35 - - 71.49 - - Labor
Paterson (NSW) 5.05 22.91 3.30 - - 68.73 - - Labor
Capricornia (QLD) 3.36 24.98 3.36 - - 68.30 - - Labor
McEwen (VIC) 3.35 25.59 4.14 - - 66.92 - - Labor
Lingiari (NT) 4.81 27.59 3.94 - - 63.66 - - Labor
Petrie (QLD) 3.38 29.32 2.15 - - 65.15 - - Labor
Solomon (NT) 3.30 31.22 3.30 0.85 - 61.33 - - Labor
Dobell (NSW) 2.61 35.54 2.61 - - 59.23 - - Labor
Burt (WA) 2.68 36.49 - - - 60.82 - - Labor
Macarthur (NSW) 3.93 41.29 2.43 - - 47.19 5.16 - Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) 3.01 41.79 3.01 - - 41.79 10.42 - Coalition, Labor
Hasluck (WA) 3.28 42.58 4.06 - - 50.09 - - Labor
Swan (WA) 3.29 45.69 5.34 - - 45.69 - - Coalition, Labor
Page (NSW) 3.29 47.51 5.34 - - 43.86 - - Coalition
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.77 48.23 1.77 - - 48.23 - - Coalition, Labor
Deakin (VIC) 3.27 48.57 5.67 - - 42.50 - - Coalition
Corangamite (VIC) 3.32 49.37 4.11 - - 43.20 - - Coalition
Robertson (NSW) 2.35 50.81 11.40 - - 35.45 - - Coalition
Cowan (WA) 3.40 52.98 3.40 - - 40.22 - - Coalition
Brisbane (QLD) 3.32 53.31 4.11 - - 39.26 - - Coalition
La Trobe (Vic) 3.33 54.09 4.12 - - 38.46 - - Coalition
Lyons (TAS) 5.33 55.06 3.28 - - 36.32 - - Coalition
Reid (NSW) 3.30 55.31 3.30 - - 38.10 - - Coalition
Macquarie (NSW) 3.21 55.64 3.21 - - 37.94 - - Coalition
Bonner (QLD) 3.26 56.58 3.26 - - 36.90 - - Coalition
Dunkley (VIC) 2.20 57.21 2.92 - - 37.67 - - Coalition
Banks (NSW) 3.34 57.83 4.13 - - 34.70 - - Coalition
New England (NSW) 3.23 57.97 3.23 32.33 - 3.23 - - Coalition
Forde (QLD) 3.36 58.30 3.36 - - 34.98 - - Coalition
Gilmore (NSW) 2.78 59.43 3.31 - - 34.47 - - Coalition
Braddon (TAS) 4.10 59.44 3.31 - - 33.15 - - Coalition
Stirling (WA) 3.31 59.68 3.31 - - 33.70 - - Coalition
Lindsay (NSW) 2.39 60.13 2.39 - - 31.22 3.87 - Coalition
Leichhardt (QLD) 6.92 63.91 3.20 - - 25.97 - - Coalition
Dickson (QLD) 3.34 64.36 3.34 - - 28.96 - - Coalition
Herbert (QLD) 2.45 66.60 3.20 - - 23.79 - 3.96 Coalition
Flynn (QLD) 5.31 67.93 2.50 - - 24.26 - - Coalition
Bass (TAS) 3.36 69.96 3.36 - - 23.32 - - Coalition
Sturt (SA) - 71.09 3.06 - - 11.37 14.48 - Coalition
Longman (QLD) 3.31 71.82 3.31 - - 21.55 - - Coalition
Dawson (QLD) 3.31 71.82 3.31 - - 21.55 - - Coalition
Pearce (WA) 3.32 71.99 4.11 - - 20.57 - - Coalition
Boothby (SA) 3.20 72.44 3.20 - - 9.26 11.90 - Coalition
Higgins (VIC) 3.22 72.78 11.16 - - 5.23 7.61 - Coalition
Hinkler (QLD) 5.68 74.02 3.27 - - 17.03 - - Coalition
Casey (VIC) 3.33 74.07 3.33 - - 19.26 - - Coalition
Mayo (SA) 3.90 74.44 2.64 - - 2.64 16.38 - Coalition
Warringah (NSW) 8.78 74.54 3.04 - - 3.76 9.88 - Coalition
Bowman (QLD) 5.12 75.70 3.35 - - 15.83 - - Coalition
Wide Bay (QLD) 7.70 76.96 3.26 - - 12.09 - - Coalition
Ryan (QLD) 3.27 77.26 5.31 - - 14.16 - - Coalition
Grey (SA) 3.05 77.64 3.05 - - 11.31 4.95 - Coalition
Barker (SA) 3.18 78.67 3.18 - - 3.18 11.80 - Coalition
Canning (WA) 3.34 78.87 3.34 - - 14.46 - - Coalition
Bennelong (NSW) 3.34 78.87 3.34 - - 14.46 - - Coalition
Fisher (QLD) 5.12 79.13 4.14 - - 11.61 - - Coalition
Aston (VIC) 2.48 80.24 3.24 - - 14.04 - - Coalition
Calare (NSW) 6.82 81.02 3.15 - - 3.90 5.11 - Coalition
Groom (QLD) 6.96 82.65 3.21 - - 3.21 3.97 - Coalition
Menzies (VIC) 3.21 82.76 3.21 7.60 - 3.21 - - Coalition
Cowper (NSW) 7.69 83.77 3.25 - - 5.29 - - Coalition
Cook (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 - - Coalition
Moncrieff (QLD) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 - - Coalition
Wentworth (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 - - Coalition
Mitchell (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 - - Coalition
McMillan (VIC) 4.11 84.71 3.32 - - 7.85 - - Coalition
Farrer (NSW) 7.13 84.72 4.07 - - 4.07 - - Coalition
O'Connor (WA) 5.38 85.15 4.10 - - 5.38 - - Coalition
Riverina (NSW) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - - Coalition
Hughes (NSW) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - - Coalition
Mallee (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - - Coalition
Wannon (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - - Coalition
Flinders (VIC) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - - Coalition
Gippsland (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - - Coalition
Mackellar (NSW) - 85.39 3.32 7.19 - 4.11 - - Coalition
Durack (WA) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - - Coalition
Maranoa (QLD) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - - Coalition
McPherson (QLD) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - - Coalition
Moore (WA) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - - Coalition
Forrest (WA) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - - Coalition
Bradfield (NSW) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - - Coalition
Tangney (WA) - 85.39 4.11 7.19 - 3.32 - - Coalition
Curtin (WA) 3.33 85.83 5.42 - - 5.42 - - Coalition
Fadden (QLD) 5.42 85.83 3.33 - - 5.42 - - Coalition
Wright (QLD) 4.13 85.86 3.34 - - 6.67 - - Coalition
Lyne (NSW) 7.24 86.07 3.34 - - 3.34 - - Coalition
Fairfax (QLD) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 - - Coalition
Berowra (NSW) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 - - Coalition
Kooyong (VIC) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 - - Coalition
Parkes (NSW) 7.24 86.07 3.34 - - 3.34 - - Coalition
North Sydney (NSW) 4.15 86.26 4.15 - - 5.45 - - Coalition
Hume (NSW) 4.17 86.63 3.37 - - 5.83 - - Coalition
Goldstein (VIC) 3.37 86.75 2.58 - - 7.30 - - Coalition
Murray (VIC) 5.00 88.11 3.08 - - 3.81 - - Coalition

Greens in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team PUP 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Grayndler (NSW) 3.30 5.05 25.62 - - 66.03 - - Labor
Batman (VIC) 3.36 3.36 58.30 - - 34.98 - - Green
Melbourne (VIC) 3.35 4.14 82.85 - - 9.67 - - Green

Xenophon Team in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team PUP 2016 Favourite
Electorate

Independent in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team PUP 2016 Favourite
Electorate
New England (NSW) 3.23 57.97 3.23 32.33 - 3.23 - - Coalition
Indi (VIC) 3.08 20.64 1.57 69.69 - 5.01 - - Independent
Denison (TAS) 3.18 3.94 3.94 75.17 - 13.78 - - Independent

Seats with competing odds on Coalition members

% Any Other Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Liberal National Nick Xenophon Team PUP
Electorate
Murray (VIC) 5.00 3.08 - - 3.81 38.10 50.01 - -
Indi (VIC) 3.08 1.57 69.69 - 5.01 7.29 13.36 - -

Seats where the 2016 Favorite suggests it might change from one party to another at the 2016 election.

TPP 2013 TCP 2013 2013 Outcome 2016 Favourite
Seat
Batman (VIC) ALP 21.0% ALP 10.6% v GRN Labor Green
Burt (WA) LIB 6.1% - Coalition Labor
Capricornia (QLD) LNP 0.8% - Coalition Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) LIB 2.9% - Coalition Coalition, Labor
Fairfax (QLD) - PUP 0.03% v LNP Palmer United Coalition
Hasluck (WA) LIB 6.0% - Coalition Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) LIB 1.9% - Coalition Coalition, Labor
Macarthur (NSW) LIB 3.3% - Coalition Labor
Petrie (QLD) LNP 0.5% - Coalition Labor
Solomon (NT) CLP 1.4% - Coalition Labor
Swan (WA) LIB 7.3% - Coalition Coalition, Labor

Close seats (ie. seats with the favorite on a probability of less than 60 per cent).

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team PUP 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Batman (VIC) 3.36 3.36 58.30 - - 34.98 - - Green
Richmond (NSW) 3.34 19.32 17.39 - - 59.95 - - Labor
Dobell (NSW) 2.61 35.54 2.61 - - 59.23 - - Labor
Macarthur (NSW) 3.93 41.29 2.43 - - 47.19 5.16 - Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) 3.01 41.79 3.01 - - 41.79 10.42 - Coalition, Labor
Hasluck (WA) 3.28 42.58 4.06 - - 50.09 - - Labor
Swan (WA) 3.29 45.69 5.34 - - 45.69 - - Coalition, Labor
Page (NSW) 3.29 47.51 5.34 - - 43.86 - - Coalition
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.77 48.23 1.77 - - 48.23 - - Coalition, Labor
Deakin (VIC) 3.27 48.57 5.67 - - 42.50 - - Coalition
Corangamite (VIC) 3.32 49.37 4.11 - - 43.20 - - Coalition
Robertson (NSW) 2.35 50.81 11.40 - - 35.45 - - Coalition
Cowan (WA) 3.40 52.98 3.40 - - 40.22 - - Coalition
Brisbane (QLD) 3.32 53.31 4.11 - - 39.26 - - Coalition
La Trobe (Vic) 3.33 54.09 4.12 - - 38.46 - - Coalition
Lyons (TAS) 5.33 55.06 3.28 - - 36.32 - - Coalition
Reid (NSW) 3.30 55.31 3.30 - - 38.10 - - Coalition
Macquarie (NSW) 3.21 55.64 3.21 - - 37.94 - - Coalition
Bonner (QLD) 3.26 56.58 3.26 - - 36.90 - - Coalition
Dunkley (VIC) 2.20 57.21 2.92 - - 37.67 - - Coalition
Banks (NSW) 3.34 57.83 4.13 - - 34.70 - - Coalition
New England (NSW) 3.23 57.97 3.23 32.33 - 3.23 - - Coalition
Forde (QLD) 3.36 58.30 3.36 - - 34.98 - - Coalition
Gilmore (NSW) 2.78 59.43 3.31 - - 34.47 - - Coalition
Braddon (TAS) 4.10 59.44 3.31 - - 33.15 - - Coalition
Stirling (WA) 3.31 59.68 3.31 - - 33.70 - - Coalition

Tally of seats by date by Favourite.

Coalition Labor Independent Coalition, Labor KAP (Bob Katter) Green
2016-05-12 78 68 2 - 1 1
2016-05-13 78 68 2 - 1 1
2016-05-14 78 68 2 - 1 1
2016-05-15 78 68 2 - 1 1
2016-05-16 78 68 2 - 1 1
2016-05-17 79 67 2 - 1 1
2016-05-18 80 65 2 1.0 1 1
2016-05-19 80 65 2 1.0 1 1
2016-05-20 80 65 2 1.0 1 1
2016-05-21 80 65 2 1.0 1 1
2016-05-22 80 65 2 1.0 1 1
2016-05-23 80 65 2 1.0 1 1
2016-05-24 80 64 2 2.0 1 1
2016-05-25 80 64 2 2.0 1 1
2016-05-26 80 63 2 2.0 1 2
2016-05-27 80 62 2 3.0 1 2
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