Hello World!
It has been a while since I last blogged.
My expectation is that the next Australian Federal Election will be in May 2022. With the current poor polling for the government, an election before the new year is highly unlikely.
So, as I have done in the past, I thought I would dust off the old programs and start a regular (probably fortnightly in the first instance) blog in anticipation of an election being called in April and had in May.
So far, all I have is one Jupyter Notebook that extracts the polling data from Wikipedia and produces a locally weighted explained sum of squares (LOWESS) regression for all of the data points. This is a quick method for aggregating the polls. Over the next few weeks I will get the Bayesian charts up and running again, and I will start my regular polling of the gambling sites for the odds on the election outcome and the individual seat outcomes.
As always, I will make my work publicly available. This election cycle it will be available on my github page.
The first lot of charts follow:
