Mark the Ballot
Psephology by the numbers
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Bayesian Aggregation
Betting Markets
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Wednesday, November 18, 2015
Updated poll aggregation
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Saturday, November 14, 2015
Luxbet hits 85%
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House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%) 2015-11-14 ...
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Betting market update
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House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%) 2015-11-11 ...
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
Polling update
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The latest Newspoll is reported in the Australian . It has the Coalition on 53 and Labor on 47, which is a one point move in the Coalition...
Monday, November 9, 2015
Update to the Dirichlet, sum-to-zero model
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I have been wrestling with an aspect of the Dirichlet, sum-to-zero model of primary voting intention for some time, which I think I have fin...
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Betting market update
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House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%) 2015-11-05 ...
Monday, November 2, 2015
Aggregation and observations
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Dear reader, before moving to the aggregation, you should know that I have upgraded my analytical tool set from JAGS 3.4.0 to JAGS 4.0.1 . T...
Friday, October 30, 2015
Betting market update
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House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%) 2015-10-30 ...
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