Mark the Ballot

I recently spent some time cleaning up the Python code I use to produce the Bayesian Aggregation charts.  When I originally wrote the code s...

January is normally a quite month for polling in Australia, and 2025 is no exception. Nonetheless there have been a couple of polls since Ch...

As a Bayesian, my prior assumption for first term governments is that they have a reasonably high probability of being re-elected come their...

The odds at Sportsbet  have settled down following the reassessment that occurred immediately after the Trump election in the United States....

In the days following the Trump win in the United States, the betting market for the Prime Minister's party after the next Australian Fe...

Today's Australian had a new Newspoll (49-51 in the Coalition's favour), and the  Fairfax media had a new Resolve Strategic Poll (...