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Saturday, March 23, 2013

Recap: the last days of Kevin Rudd (2010)

With all the drama of this week, let's look at the polls in the six months prior to Kevin Rudd's removal from office on 24 June 2010. All of the data for that period is strongly suggestive that Rudd was recovering from his May 2010 slump. This recovery, between May 2010 and June 24 is most evident in the Bayesian aggregation for the period.



The June 2010 recovery is pretty easy to see in the raw data.



At the very least (after adjusting for collective house effects) it would appear that Keven Rudd was removed from office on that fateful morning in June 2010 on a poll winning 52 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. We know what happened next.



Update


Kevin in the comments below makes a valid point. The last few data points above slide into Julia's elevation bounce. I have changed the cut-off date from 24 June to 20 June and re-run the analyses. The key charts with this change follow.



I should point out that the observation count in the LOESS charts is the number of LOESS data points in the analysis. Where there are two polls on a date, only one point in the LOESS series is calculated.

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3 comments:

  1. Kevin BonhamMarch 23, 2013 at 7:05 PM

    Fascinating. Taking the two Bayesian aggregations together it appears that the Gillard-instalment bounce was so fleeting or small that it barely if at all existed, and that what appeared to be a "bounce" poll from Newspoll was in fact an off-trend result that just happened by chance to be her first Newspoll in the job.

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  2. Kevin BonhamMarch 24, 2013 at 1:02 AM

    Actually in making the above comment I failed to notice that the last week on the right of the first graph is Gillard, but even so a 1.1% bounce is smaller than I'd previously thought.

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  3. Mark GraphMarch 24, 2013 at 7:01 AM

    Kevin - fair cop - I have rerun the analyses removing the data points that cross into the Gillard epoch.

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