Weekly update

Three new polls this week:

• The Morgan multi-mode (with a sample of 3372) moved 1.5 points in the Government's favour (yielding 44 to 56)
• Essential (at 44 to 56) moved away from the Government by two points on the previous independent sample fortnight (but unchanged on last week)
• Newspoll (at 45 to 55) moved three points in the government's favour on the previous fortnight.

Collectively, these polls are in broad agreement, with a small movement towards the government on the previous fortnight.

With the benefit of the latest data, the Bayesian aggregation (below) is now treating the two shock results for the government from the last fortnight of March as outliers.