Wednesday: ReachTEL 48-52

Today's ReachTEL has the Coalition on 52 per cent (down one point from the previous ReachTEL) and Labor on 48 (up one). In terms of the primary vote: Palmer United is on 4.4 per cent nationally (and one guesses, much higher in Queensland).

ReachTEL, alone among pollsters, has Labor on the same TPP as it did when Rudd was initially restored in late June. It will be interesting to see if the other pollsters turn in a late flow to Labor

Moving to the Bayesian aggregation, and we are at one of those turning points where a single data point can significantly affect the aggregation. Will await confirmation from the other polling houses this week.