Saturday betting market update

The betting market this week firmed a touch in the Coalition's direction. The Coalition is ahead (with bookmakers pricing the probability of a Coalition win between 55.0 and 57.7 per cent). But this is not a huge margin. The markets are saying that Labor has a little more than 4 chances in 10 of winning the next election.

	House	Coalition Odds ($)	Labor Odds ($)	Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-08-29	Betfair	1.68	2.23	57.033248
2015-08-29	CrownBet	1.65	2.25	57.692308
2015-08-29	Ladbrokes	1.70	2.10	55.263158
2015-08-29	Luxbet	1.68	2.15	56.135770
2015-08-29	Sportsbet	1.73	2.15	55.412371
2015-08-29	TABtouch	1.71	2.09	55.000000
2015-08-29	William Hill	1.72	2.10	54.973822

Links to these houses can be found in the right column, towards the bottom of the column.

Opinion polls

Yesterday, ReachTEL published its third 47-53 result this month. Dropping this result into the aggregation yielded a Coalition TPP estimate of 46.8, a slight movement for the Coalition. The Coalition has been holding steady for a couple of weeks now.