Poll update

Two new polls this week:

• Newspoll estimates the result of an election at the moment would be 46 to 54 in Labor's favour. This is unchanged on the previous fortnight.
• Morgan estimates the result would be 44.5 to 55.5 in Labor's favour (if preferences were distributed on the basis of the previous election). This is a two point movement to Labor on the previous fortnight.

The Morgan result is a little anomalous. The result with preferences distributed by how people said they would vote is only half point different over the fortnight (from 45.5-54.5 to 45-55). But even this noise cannot hide the world of pain the Coalition finds itself in as it celebrates its second anniversary on the treasury benches.

The aggregated poll follows:

Even my models that are most favourable to the Coalition, have the government at 48 per cent.

On the primaries ... we are not seeing a lot of movement in recent weeks.

Clive Palmer appears to be sitting on 0.8 per cent of the primary vote. He has a big job ahead if he is going to be re-elected in twelve months time.