Pre-vote Betting Market favours the Coaltiion

At 9.05pm, before the Liberals gather to choose between Abbott and Turnbull, the Betting market believes the challenge augurs well for the Coalition.

	House	Coalition Odds ($)	Labor Odds ($)	Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-09-14	Betfair	1.43	2.48	63.427110
2015-09-14	CrownBet	1.55	2.45	61.250000
2015-09-14	Ladbrokes	1.50	2.45	62.025316
2015-09-14	Luxbet	1.53	2.40	61.068702
2015-09-14	Sportsbet	1.50	2.65	63.855422
2015-09-14	TABtouch	1.52	2.48	62.000000
2015-09-14	William Hill	1.53	2.50	62.034739

Interpretation: the betting market expects a leadership change (either now or in the near future), and this will be good for the Coalition's electoral fortunes. Only a few minutes to go to see if the markets are correct.