Newspoll 50/50

This morning's Newspoll came in at 50/50. Folding these numbers into the polling aggregation model we get an estimated two-party preferred vote share of 52.6 to 47.4 in the Coalition's favour. It is clear that Turnbull enjoyed a significantly longer honeymoon that Abbott. It will also be interesting to see where the current movement settles.

On betting markets, we have seen small reductions in the probability estimate for a Coalition election win from Betfair and Luxbet.

	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	Mon
Betfair	85.80	85.10	83.45	83.58	85.57	85.10	85.10	82.22
CrownBet	85.41	85.41	85.41	85.41	85.41	84.27	84.27	84.27
Ladbrokes	81.30	83.08	85.03	85.03	85.03	85.03	85.03	85.03
Luxbet	86.53	88.20	87.51	81.17	86.42	86.42	86.42	83.08
Sportsbet	84.51	84.51	84.51	84.51	84.51	84.51	84.51	84.51
TABtouch	84.27	84.27	82.83	82.83	82.83	82.83	82.83	82.83
William Hill	85.41	85.41	84.15	84.15	84.15	84.15	84.15	84.15