Poll update

Today's Morgan poll estimate of national two-party preferred voting intention was 53 to 47 in the Coalition's favour, which was a half percentage point improvement for the Coalition on the previous fortnight. The aggregated polling is little changed, on 52.9 per cent for the Coalition (a 0.3 percentage point improvement for the Coalition on the previous fortnight).

On the primary votes, Morgan now asks explicitly about voting intention for the Nick Xenophon team. This has seen an increase in the others category vote from Morgan (from 12 to 14.5 including Katter and Palmer) at the expense of the Greens (down 2.0) and the Coalition (down 0.5).

Calculating TPP voting intention from the primary vote yields (not surprisingly) the same result as the two-party preferred aggregation above.

It is interesting to speculate whether there was an anti-Abbott factor at play in the 2013 election that saw a reduced preference flow to the Coalition. If we take the preference flows from the 2010 election and the current primary votes. it improves the Coalition's two-party preferred national vote estimate by 1.1 percentage points.