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Friday, June 3, 2016

Betting Market Update

Most days I tweet my updates from the election betting market, but on Friday you get the whole lot in a post. We will start with the odds and probability of a Coalition win.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-06-03 Betfair 1.30 3.85 74.76
2016-06-03 CrownBet 1.30 3.45 72.63
2016-06-03 Ladbrokes 1.30 3.20 71.11
2016-06-03 Luxbet 1.24 4.00 76.34
2016-06-03 Sportsbet 1.30 3.55 73.20
2016-06-03 TABtouch 1.25 3.65 74.49
2016-06-03 William Hill 1.25 3.80 75.25

% Fr 27-May Sa 28-May Su 29-May Mo 30-May Tu 31-May We 1-Jun Th 2-Jun Fr 3-Jun
Betfair 73.64 73.23 73.76 72.80 73.49 74.26 74.76 74.76
CrownBet 72.63 72.63 72.63 72.63 72.63 72.63 72.63 72.63
Ladbrokes 69.98 71.11 71.11 71.11 70.64 71.11 71.11 71.11
Luxbet 73.77 73.77 73.77 73.77 73.77 73.77 73.77 76.34
Sportsbet 72.92 72.92 72.92 72.92 72.92 72.92 72.92 73.20
TABtouch 71.43 72.94 72.94 72.94 72.94 74.49 74.49 74.49
William Hill 72.34 73.77 73.77 73.77 73.77 75.25 75.25 75.25
Average 72.39 72.91 72.99 72.85 72.88 73.49 73.56 73.97

Which charts as follows.





Turning to the individual seat markets at Sportsbet, there were no odds for Wentworth (NSW) this morning. The first set of tables below are just from today's odds so Wentworth (NSW) will be missing. In the subsequent tables, I use the previous day's odds if a seat is missing from the current date.

The changers for today (in comparison with yesterday) were:
  • Eden Monaro (NSW) from Labor to Coalition, Labor
  • Page (NSW) from Coalition to Labor

Election outcome based on all favourites winning their seat (sharing equal favourites)

Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team
0.0 78.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0

A list of seats with equal favourites

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Hindmarsh (SA) 3.01 41.79 3.01 0.0 0.0 41.79 10.42 Coalition, Labor
Swan (WA) 3.29 45.69 5.34 0.0 0.0 45.69 0.00 Coalition, Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.77 48.23 1.77 0.0 0.0 48.23 0.00 Coalition, Labor

Complete list of Seat Odds

$ 1 Territory Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Liberal National Nick Xenophon Team PUP
Electorate
Adelaide (SA) - 26.0 4.00 21.00 - - 1.33 - - 9.0 -
Aston (VIC) - 34.0 1.05 26.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Ballarat (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Banks (NSW) - 34.0 1.50 51.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Barker (SA) - 26.0 1.05 26.00 - - 26.00 - - 7.0 -
Barton (NSW) - 26.0 8.50 26.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Bass (TAS) - 26.0 1.25 26.00 - - 3.75 - - - -
Batman (VIC) - 26.0 26.00 1.50 - - 2.50 - - - -
Bendigo (VIC) - 26.0 6.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - - -
Bennelong (NSW) - 26.0 1.10 26.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Berowra (NSW) - 26.0 1.01 51.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Blair (QLD) - 34.0 8.50 51.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Blaxland (NSW) - 26.0 12.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Bonner (QLD) - 34.0 1.50 51.00 - - 2.30 - - - -
Boothby (SA) - 26.0 1.15 26.00 - - 9.00 - - 7.0 -
Bowman (QLD) - 34.0 1.10 51.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Braddon (TAS) - 21.0 1.45 26.00 - - 2.60 - - - -
Bradfield (NSW) - 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Brand (WA) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Brisbane (QLD) - 26.0 1.62 34.00 - - 2.20 - - - -
Bruce (VIC) - 26.0 4.00 26.00 - - 1.22 - - - -
Burt (WA) - 34.0 2.50 - - - 1.50 - - - -
Calare (NSW) - 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - 16.0 -
Calwell (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Canberra (ACT) - 34.0 12.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Canning (WA) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Capricornia (QLD) - 34.0 3.50 51.00 - - 1.28 - - - -
Casey (VIC) - 26.0 1.12 26.00 - - 5.50 - - - -
Chifley (NSW) - 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Chisholm (VIC) - 26.0 4.20 21.00 - - 1.20 - - - -
Cook (NSW) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Corangamite (VIC) - 26.0 1.50 21.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Corio (VIC) - 16.0 16.00 16.00 - - 1.02 - - - -
Cowan (WA) - 26.0 3.00 26.00 - - 1.35 - - - -
Cowper (NSW) - 11.0 1.01 26.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Cunningham (NSW) - 21.0 26.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Curtin (WA) - 26.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Dawson (QLD) - 34.0 1.10 51.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Deakin (VIC) - 26.0 1.75 15.00 - - 2.00 - - - -
Denison (TAS) - 26.0 21.00 21.00 1.10 - 6.00 - - - -
Dickson (QLD) - 34.0 1.35 51.00 - - 3.00 - - - -
Dobell (NSW) - 34.0 3.00 51.00 - - 1.35 - - - -
Dunkley (VIC) - 41.0 1.58 31.00 - - 2.40 - - - -
Durack (WA) - 12.0 - 26.00 - - 21.00 1.08 7.00 - -
Eden Monaro (NSW) - 51.0 1.87 51.00 - - 1.87 - - - -
Fadden (QLD) - 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Fairfax (QLD) - 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Farrer (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Fenner (ACT) - 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Fisher (QLD) - 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Flinders (VIC) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Flynn (QLD) - 34.0 1.20 51.00 - - 4.20 - - - -
Forde (QLD) - 34.0 1.50 51.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Forrest (WA) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Fowler (NSW) - 34.0 21.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Franklin (TAS) - 26.0 8.00 11.00 - - 1.07 - - - -
Fremantle (WA) - 26.0 13.00 4.20 - - 1.20 - - - -
Gelibrand (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 12.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Gilmore (NSW) - 34.0 1.45 51.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Gippsland (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Goldstein (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 34.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Gorton (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 16.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Grayndler (NSW) - 34.0 21.00 3.35 - - 1.30 - - - -
Greenway (NSW) - 26.0 5.00 26.00 - - 1.12 - - - -
Grey (SA) - 26.0 1.02 26.00 - - 7.00 - - 16.0 -
Griffith (QLD) - 34.0 7.50 34.00 - - 1.07 - - - -
Groom (QLD) - 16.0 1.01 51.00 - - 26.00 - - 21.0 -
Hasluck (WA) - 26.0 2.00 21.00 - - 1.70 - - - -
Herbert (QLD) - 34.0 1.20 51.00 - - 3.75 - - - 51.0
Higgins (VIC) - 26.0 1.10 7.50 - - 16.00 - - 16.0 -
Hindmarsh (SA) - 26.0 1.87 26.00 - - 1.87 - - 7.5 -
Hinkler (QLD) - 15.0 1.08 51.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Holt (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Hotham (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Hughes (NSW) - 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Hume (NSW) - 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 15.00 - - - -
Hunter(NSW) - 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Indi (VIC) - 26.0 - 51.00 1.15 - 16.00 11.00 6.00 - -
Isaacs (VIC) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Jagajaga (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Kennedy (QLD) - 34.0 12.00 51.00 - 1.01 26.00 - - - -
Kingsford Smith (NSW) - 34.0 8.50 51.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Kingston (SA) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - 8.0 -
Kooyong (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
La Trobe (Vic) - 26.0 1.60 21.00 - - 2.25 - - - -
Lalor (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Leichhardt (QLD) - 34.0 1.20 51.00 - - 4.20 - - - -
Lilley (QLD) - 34.0 8.50 51.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Lindsay (NSW) - 34.0 1.35 51.00 - - 2.60 - - 21.0 -
Lingiari (NT) 51.0 26.0 4.00 51.00 - - 1.22 - - - -
Longman (QLD) - 34.0 1.20 51.00 - - 4.00 - - - -
Lyne (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - - -
Lyons (TAS) - 16.0 1.55 26.00 - - 2.35 - - - -
Macarthur (NSW) - 34.0 2.00 51.00 - - 1.75 - - 16.0 -
Mackellar (NSW) - - 1.01 51.00 12.00 - 21.00 - - - -
Macquarie (NSW) - 26.0 1.50 26.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Makin (SA) - 26.0 16.00 26.00 - - 1.08 - - 7.0 -
Mallee (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Maranoa (QLD) - 12.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Maribyrnong (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Mayo (SA) - 21.0 1.27 31.00 - - 31.00 - - 3.5 -
McEwen (VIC) - 26.0 5.50 21.00 - - 1.12 - - - -
McMahon (NSW) - 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
McMillan (VIC) - 21.0 1.02 26.00 - - 11.00 - - - -
McPherson (QLD) - 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Melbourne (VIC) - 26.0 21.00 1.05 - - 9.00 - - - -
Melbourne Ports (VIC) - 26.0 7.50 7.50 - - 1.15 - - - -
Menzies (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 11.00 - 26.00 - - - -
Mitchell (NSW) - 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Moncrieff (QLD) - 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Moore (WA) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Moreton (QLD) - 34.0 12.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - 16.0 -
Murray (VIC) - 16.0 - 26.00 - - 21.00 2.05 1.65 - -
New England (NSW) - 34.0 1.37 51.00 2.85 - 34.00 - - - -
Newcastle (NSW) - 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.04 - - - -
North Sydney (NSW) - 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
O'Connor (WA) - 16.0 1.01 21.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Oxley (QLD) - 34.0 8.50 51.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Page (NSW) - 34.0 2.15 51.00 - - 1.65 - - - -
Parkes (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - - -
Parramatta (NSW) - 34.0 6.00 51.00 - - 1.10 - - - -
Paterson (NSW) - 17.0 3.75 26.00 - - 1.25 - - - -
Pearce (WA) - 26.0 1.20 21.00 - - 4.20 - - - -
Perth (WA) - 51.0 8.00 21.00 - - 1.03 - - - -
Petrie (QLD) - 26.0 3.75 41.00 - - 1.25 - - - -
Port Adelaide (SA) - 26.0 21.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - 11.0 -
Rankin (QLD) - 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Reid (NSW) - 34.0 1.55 51.00 - - 2.25 - - - -
Richmond (NSW) - 34.0 4.50 7.50 - - 1.30 - - - -
Riverina (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Robertson (NSW) - 34.0 1.57 34.00 - - 2.25 - - - -
Ryan (QLD) - 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Scullin (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 8.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Shortland (NSW) - 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Solomon (NT) - 26.0 2.25 41.00 51.00 - 1.55 - - - -
Stirling (WA) - 26.0 1.44 26.00 - - 2.55 - - - -
Sturt (SA) - - 1.12 26.00 - - 7.00 - - 5.5 -
Swan (WA) - 26.0 1.87 16.00 - - 1.87 - - - -
Sydney (NSW) - 26.0 21.00 6.00 - - 1.12 - - - -
Tangney (WA) - - 1.01 21.00 12.00 - 26.00 - - - -
Wakefield (SA) - 26.0 16.00 26.00 - - 1.08 - - 6.0 -
Wannon (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Warringah (NSW) - 34.0 1.06 51.00 16.00 - 21.00 - - 8.0 -
Watson (NSW) - 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Werriwa (NSW) - 26.0 6.00 51.00 - - 1.10 - - - -
Whitlam (NSW) - 31.0 34.00 16.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Wide Bay (QLD) - 11.0 1.10 26.00 - - 7.00 - - - -
Wills (VIC) - 41.0 31.00 4.50 - - 1.16 - - - -
Wright (QLD) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 13.00 - - - -

Complete list of Seat Probabilities

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Whitlam (NSW) 2.89 2.64 5.61 - - 88.86 - Labor
Wills (VIC) 2.14 2.83 19.48 - - 75.56 - Labor
Batman (VIC) 3.36 3.36 58.30 - - 34.98 - Green
Cunningham (NSW) 4.35 3.51 1.79 - - 90.36 - Labor
Port Adelaide (SA) 3.17 3.92 3.92 - - 81.51 7.48 Labor
Denison (TAS) 3.18 3.94 3.94 75.17 - 13.78 - Independent
Melbourne (VIC) 3.35 4.14 82.85 - - 9.67 - Green
Sydney (NSW) 3.36 4.16 14.55 - - 77.94 - Labor
Grayndler (NSW) 2.57 4.16 26.08 - - 67.20 - Labor
Fowler (NSW) 2.71 4.38 1.80 - - 91.11 - Labor
Wakefield (SA) 3.12 5.07 3.12 - - 75.16 13.53 Labor
Makin (SA) 3.18 5.17 3.18 - - 76.64 11.82 Labor
Scullin (VIC) 3.26 5.30 10.61 - - 80.82 - Labor
Gelibrand (VIC) 3.28 5.32 7.10 - - 84.31 - Labor
Corio (VIC) 5.35 5.35 5.35 - - 83.95 - Labor
Gorton (VIC) 3.33 5.42 5.42 - - 85.83 - Labor
Chifley (NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Rankin (QLD) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Shortland (NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Watson (NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
McMahon (NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Fenner (ACT) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Hunter(NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Newcastle (NSW) 2.74 5.82 1.83 - - 89.61 - Labor
Fremantle (WA) 3.24 6.48 20.06 - - 70.22 - Labor
Kingston (SA) 3.22 6.98 3.22 - - 76.12 10.47 Labor
Moreton (QLD) 2.48 7.03 1.65 - - 83.56 5.27 Labor
Kennedy (QLD) 2.53 7.18 1.69 - 85.29 3.31 - KAP (Bob Katter)
Jagajaga (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - Labor
Ballarat (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - Labor
Hotham (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - Labor
Holt (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - Labor
Blaxland (NSW) 3.40 7.36 1.73 - - 87.50 - Labor
Canberra (ACT) 2.62 7.42 1.75 - - 88.21 - Labor
Maribyrnong (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 - Labor
Lalor (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 - Labor
Calwell (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 - Labor
Isaacs (VIC) 3.33 10.18 4.12 - - 82.38 - Labor
Brand (WA) 3.33 10.18 4.12 - - 82.38 - Labor
Barton (NSW) 3.35 10.26 3.35 - - 83.04 - Labor
Blair (QLD) 2.63 10.51 1.75 - - 85.11 - Labor
Oxley (QLD) 2.63 10.51 1.75 - - 85.11 - Labor
Lilley (QLD) 2.63 10.51 1.75 - - 85.11 - Labor
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 2.63 10.51 1.75 - - 85.11 - Labor
Franklin (TAS) 3.23 10.51 7.65 - - 78.61 - Labor
Perth (WA) 1.69 10.75 4.09 - - 83.47 - Labor
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 3.27 11.35 11.35 - - 74.02 - Labor
Griffith (QLD) 2.61 11.83 2.61 - - 82.95 - Labor
Bendigo (VIC) 3.34 14.46 3.34 - - 78.87 - Labor
Werriwa (NSW) 3.39 14.70 1.73 - - 80.18 - Labor
Parramatta (NSW) 2.61 14.82 1.74 - - 80.82 - Labor
McEwen (VIC) 3.31 15.66 4.10 - - 76.92 - Labor
Greenway (NSW) 3.29 17.10 3.29 - - 76.33 - Labor
Richmond (NSW) 2.55 19.25 11.55 - - 66.65 - Labor
Chisholm (VIC) 3.32 20.57 4.11 - - 71.99 - Labor
Indi (VIC) 3.08 20.64 1.57 69.69 - 5.01 - Independent
Adelaide (SA) 3.21 20.85 3.97 - - 62.71 9.27 Labor
Lingiari (NT) 5.06 21.79 1.71 - - 71.44 - Labor
Bruce (VIC) 3.35 21.80 3.35 - - 71.49 - Labor
Paterson (NSW) 5.05 22.91 3.30 - - 68.73 - Labor
Petrie (QLD) 3.41 23.61 2.16 - - 70.83 - Labor
Capricornia (QLD) 2.64 25.60 1.76 - - 70.01 - Labor
Cowan (WA) 3.34 28.96 3.34 - - 64.36 - Labor
Dobell (NSW) 2.62 29.68 1.75 - - 65.96 - Labor
Burt (WA) 2.68 36.49 - - - 60.82 - Labor
Solomon (NT) 3.28 37.92 2.08 1.67 - 55.04 - Labor
Page (NSW) 2.63 41.52 1.75 - - 54.10 - Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) 3.01 41.79 3.01 - - 41.79 10.42 Coalition, Labor
Macarthur (NSW) 2.49 42.27 1.66 - - 48.31 5.28 Labor
Hasluck (WA) 3.28 42.58 4.06 - - 50.09 - Labor
Swan (WA) 3.29 45.69 5.34 - - 45.69 - Coalition, Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.77 48.23 1.77 - - 48.23 - Coalition, Labor
Deakin (VIC) 3.27 48.57 5.67 - - 42.50 - Coalition
La Trobe (Vic) 3.33 54.09 4.12 - - 38.46 - Coalition
Brisbane (QLD) 3.37 54.16 2.58 - - 39.88 - Coalition
Lyons (TAS) 5.33 55.06 3.28 - - 36.32 - Coalition
Robertson (NSW) 2.58 55.86 2.58 - - 38.98 - Coalition
Reid (NSW) 2.58 56.66 1.72 - - 39.03 - Coalition
Dunkley (VIC) 2.20 57.21 2.92 - - 37.67 - Coalition
Corangamite (VIC) 3.34 57.83 4.13 - - 34.70 - Coalition
Bonner (QLD) 2.56 57.95 1.70 - - 37.79 - Coalition
Macquarie (NSW) 3.36 58.30 3.36 - - 34.98 - Coalition
Braddon (TAS) 4.10 59.44 3.31 - - 33.15 - Coalition
Stirling (WA) 3.31 59.68 3.31 - - 33.70 - Coalition
Forde (QLD) 2.64 59.75 1.76 - - 35.85 - Coalition
Banks (NSW) 2.64 59.75 1.76 - - 35.85 - Coalition
Gilmore (NSW) 2.58 60.57 1.72 - - 35.13 - Coalition
Lindsay (NSW) 2.41 60.62 1.60 - - 31.47 3.90 Coalition
New England (NSW) 2.54 62.97 1.69 30.27 - 2.54 - Coalition
Dickson (QLD) 2.62 65.96 1.75 - - 29.68 - Coalition
Mayo (SA) 4.02 66.43 2.72 - - 2.72 24.11 Coalition
Bass (TAS) 3.36 69.96 3.36 - - 23.32 - Coalition
Sturt (SA) - 71.09 3.06 - - 11.37 14.48 Coalition
Herbert (QLD) 4.19 71.31 1.68 - - 22.82 - Coalition
Pearce (WA) 3.32 71.99 4.11 - - 20.57 - Coalition
Boothby (SA) 3.20 72.44 3.20 - - 9.26 11.90 Coalition
Longman (QLD) 2.60 73.59 1.73 - - 22.08 - Coalition
Leichhardt (QLD) 2.62 74.38 1.75 - - 21.25 - Coalition
Flynn (QLD) 2.62 74.38 1.75 - - 21.25 - Coalition
Higgins (VIC) 3.19 75.39 11.06 - - 5.18 5.18 Coalition
Warringah (NSW) 2.40 76.85 1.60 5.09 - 3.88 10.18 Coalition
Wide Bay (QLD) 7.70 76.96 3.26 - - 12.09 - Coalition
Casey (VIC) 3.34 77.53 3.34 - - 15.79 - Coalition
Grey (SA) 3.05 77.64 3.05 - - 11.31 4.95 Coalition
Hinkler (QLD) 5.66 78.54 1.66 - - 14.14 - Coalition
Barker (SA) 3.18 78.67 3.18 - - 3.18 11.80 Coalition
Bennelong (NSW) 3.34 78.87 3.34 - - 14.46 - Coalition
Aston (VIC) 2.48 80.24 3.24 - - 14.04 - Coalition
Bowman (QLD) 2.61 80.82 1.74 - - 14.82 - Coalition
Dawson (QLD) 2.61 80.82 1.74 - - 14.82 - Coalition
Menzies (VIC) 3.21 82.76 3.21 7.60 - 3.21 - Coalition
Cowper (NSW) 7.69 83.77 3.25 - - 5.29 - Coalition
Cook (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 - Coalition
McMillan (VIC) 4.11 84.71 3.32 - - 7.85 - Coalition
O'Connor (WA) 5.38 85.15 4.10 - - 5.38 - Coalition
Flinders (VIC) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - Coalition
Tangney (WA) - 85.39 4.11 7.19 - 3.32 - Coalition
Forrest (WA) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - Coalition
Moore (WA) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - Coalition
Gippsland (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - Coalition
Wannon (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - Coalition
Mallee (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - Coalition
Groom (QLD) 5.40 85.48 1.69 - - 3.32 4.11 Coalition
Curtin (WA) 3.33 85.83 5.42 - - 5.42 - Coalition
Wright (QLD) 4.13 85.86 3.34 - - 6.67 - Coalition
Kooyong (VIC) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 - Coalition
Lyne (NSW) 7.24 86.07 3.34 - - 3.34 - Coalition
Canning (WA) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 - Coalition
Parkes (NSW) 7.24 86.07 3.34 - - 3.34 - Coalition
Calare (NSW) 2.56 86.15 1.71 - - 4.14 5.44 Coalition
Durack (WA) 6.73 86.32 3.11 - - 3.85 - Coalition
Goldstein (VIC) 3.37 86.75 2.58 - - 7.30 - Coalition
Mackellar (NSW) - 86.80 1.72 7.31 - 4.17 - Coalition
Maranoa (QLD) 7.31 86.80 1.72 - - 4.17 - Coalition
Berowra (NSW) 3.40 87.50 1.73 - - 7.36 - Coalition
Murray (VIC) 5.03 88.04 3.10 - - 3.83 - Coalition
Fisher (QLD) 2.62 88.21 1.75 - - 7.42 - Coalition
Bradfield (NSW) 2.62 88.21 1.75 - - 7.42 - Coalition
Hume (NSW) 2.66 89.54 1.77 - - 6.03 - Coalition
Riverina (NSW) 4.31 89.61 1.77 - - 4.31 - Coalition
Farrer (NSW) 4.31 89.61 1.77 - - 4.31 - Coalition
Moncrieff (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Fadden (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
McPherson (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Ryan (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
North Sydney (NSW) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Hughes (NSW) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Mitchell (NSW) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Fairfax (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition

Greens in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Grayndler (NSW) 2.57 4.16 26.08 - - 67.20 - Labor
Batman (VIC) 3.36 3.36 58.30 - - 34.98 - Green
Melbourne (VIC) 3.35 4.14 82.85 - - 9.67 - Green

Xenophon Team in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate

Independent in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
New England (NSW) 2.54 62.97 1.69 30.27 - 2.54 - Coalition
Indi (VIC) 3.08 20.64 1.57 69.69 - 5.01 - Independent
Denison (TAS) 3.18 3.94 3.94 75.17 - 13.78 - Independent

Seats with competing odds on Coalition members

% Any Other Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Liberal National Nick Xenophon Team
Electorate
Murray (VIC) 5.03 3.10 - - 3.83 39.26 48.78 -
Indi (VIC) 3.08 1.57 69.69 - 5.01 7.29 13.36 -
Durack (WA) 6.73 3.11 - - 3.85 74.78 11.54 -

Seats where the 2016 Favorite suggests it might change from one party to another at the 2016 election.

TPP 2013 TCP 2013 2013 Outcome 2016 Favourite
Seat
Batman (VIC) ALP 21.0% ALP 10.6% v GRN Labor Green
Burt (WA) LIB 6.1% - Coalition Labor
Capricornia (QLD) LNP 0.8% - Coalition Labor
Cowan (WA) LIB 4.5% - Coalition Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) LIB 2.9% - Coalition Coalition, Labor
Fairfax (QLD) - PUP 0.03% v LNP Palmer United Coalition
Hasluck (WA) LIB 6.0% - Coalition Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) LIB 1.9% - Coalition Coalition, Labor
Macarthur (NSW) LIB 3.3% - Coalition Labor
Page (NSW) NAT 3.1% - Coalition Labor
Petrie (QLD) LNP 0.5% - Coalition Labor
Solomon (NT) CLP 1.4% - Coalition Labor
Swan (WA) LIB 7.3% - Coalition Coalition, Labor
Wentworth (NSW) LIB 18.9% - Coalition -

Close seats (ie. seats with the favorite on a probability of less than 60 per cent).

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Batman (VIC) 3.36 3.36 58.30 - - 34.98 - Green
Solomon (NT) 3.28 37.92 2.08 1.67 - 55.04 - Labor
Page (NSW) 2.63 41.52 1.75 - - 54.10 - Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) 3.01 41.79 3.01 - - 41.79 10.42 Coalition, Labor
Macarthur (NSW) 2.49 42.27 1.66 - - 48.31 5.28 Labor
Hasluck (WA) 3.28 42.58 4.06 - - 50.09 - Labor
Swan (WA) 3.29 45.69 5.34 - - 45.69 - Coalition, Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.77 48.23 1.77 - - 48.23 - Coalition, Labor
Deakin (VIC) 3.27 48.57 5.67 - - 42.50 - Coalition
La Trobe (Vic) 3.33 54.09 4.12 - - 38.46 - Coalition
Brisbane (QLD) 3.37 54.16 2.58 - - 39.88 - Coalition
Lyons (TAS) 5.33 55.06 3.28 - - 36.32 - Coalition
Robertson (NSW) 2.58 55.86 2.58 - - 38.98 - Coalition
Reid (NSW) 2.58 56.66 1.72 - - 39.03 - Coalition
Dunkley (VIC) 2.20 57.21 2.92 - - 37.67 - Coalition
Corangamite (VIC) 3.34 57.83 4.13 - - 34.70 - Coalition
Bonner (QLD) 2.56 57.95 1.70 - - 37.79 - Coalition
Macquarie (NSW) 3.36 58.30 3.36 - - 34.98 - Coalition
Braddon (TAS) 4.10 59.44 3.31 - - 33.15 - Coalition
Stirling (WA) 3.31 59.68 3.31 - - 33.70 - Coalition
Forde (QLD) 2.64 59.75 1.76 - - 35.85 - Coalition
Banks (NSW) 2.64 59.75 1.76 - - 35.85 - Coalition

Tally of seats by Party and Date, tallying equal favourites as a separate category

Coalition Labor Coalition, Labor Independent Green KAP (Bob Katter)
May 12 78 68 - 2 1 1
May 13 78 68 - 2 1 1
May 14 78 68 - 2 1 1
May 15 78 68 - 2 1 1
May 16 78 68 - 2 1 1
May 17 79 67 - 2 1 1
May 18 80 65 1.0 2 1 1
May 19 80 65 1.0 2 1 1
May 20 80 65 1.0 2 1 1
May 21 80 65 1.0 2 1 1
May 22 80 65 1.0 2 1 1
May 23 80 65 1.0 2 1 1
May 24 80 64 2.0 2 1 1
May 25 80 64 2.0 2 1 1
May 26 80 63 2.0 2 2 1
May 27 80 62 3.0 2 2 1
May 28 80 62 3.0 2 2 1
May 29 80 62 3.0 2 2 1
May 30 80 62 3.0 2 2 1
May 31 80 62 3.0 2 2 1
Jun 01 80 63 2.0 2 2 1
Jun 02 79 64 2.0 2 2 1
Jun 03 78 64 3.0 2 2 1

Tally of seats by Party and Date, allocating equal favourites proportionately to parties

Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team
May 12 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 13 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 14 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 15 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 16 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 17 0.0 79.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 67.0 0.0
May 18 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 19 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 20 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 21 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 22 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 23 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 24 0.0 81.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.0 0.0
May 25 0.0 81.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.0 0.0
May 26 0.0 81.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 64.0 0.0
May 27 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
May 28 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
May 29 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
May 30 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
May 31 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
Jun 01 0.0 81.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 64.0 0.0
Jun 02 0.0 80.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.0 0.0
Jun 03 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0

And a couple more charts



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