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Saturday, June 18, 2016

Individual seats

Today, I give you a complete dump of my probability tables from the individual seat betting market at Sportsbet. Following the tables are charts for each of the 150 House of Representative seats.

This week has seen Sportsbet add a large number of candidates, including multiple independents to some seats. It necessitated some fast on-the-fly coding to capture the information. My capture file has grown from 9kb each day to 25kb. So, with the exception of a small number of high profile independents, I track most independents under the catch-all category of "Any Other".

Note, where I have not been able to capture odds for a particular day, I use the most recent odds I have captured to calculate probabilities. So we begin our journey with the odds that are missing for particular days. Today, I secured the full harvest of odds.

Missing odds - seats by date
Missing Odds
2016-05-19 O'Connor (WA)
2016-05-20 O'Connor (WA)
2016-06-03 Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-04 Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-05 Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-06 Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-07 Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-09 Lingiari (NT), Solomon (NT)
2016-06-10 Brisbane (QLD), Lingiari (NT)
2016-06-11 Lingiari (NT), Murray (VIC)
2016-06-12 Lingiari (NT), Murray (VIC)
2016-06-13 Lingiari (NT)
2016-06-14 Lingiari (NT)
2016-06-16 Grayndler (NSW)
2016-06-17 Mackellar (NSW)

Tally of seats by Party and Date, tallying equal favourites as a separate category
Coalition Labor Ind Katter Green Coalition, Labor
2016-05-12 78 68 2 1 1 -
2016-05-13 78 68 2 1 1 -
2016-05-14 78 68 2 1 1 -
2016-05-15 78 68 2 1 1 -
2016-05-16 78 68 2 1 1 -
2016-05-17 79 67 2 1 1 -
2016-05-18 80 65 2 1 1 1.0
2016-05-19 80 65 2 1 1 1.0
2016-05-20 80 65 2 1 1 1.0
2016-05-21 80 65 2 1 1 1.0
2016-05-22 80 65 2 1 1 1.0
2016-05-23 80 65 2 1 1 1.0
2016-05-24 80 64 2 1 1 2.0
2016-05-25 80 64 2 1 1 2.0
2016-05-26 80 63 2 1 2 2.0
2016-05-27 80 62 2 1 2 3.0
2016-05-28 80 62 2 1 2 3.0
2016-05-29 80 62 2 1 2 3.0
2016-05-30 80 62 2 1 2 3.0
2016-05-31 80 62 2 1 2 3.0
2016-06-01 80 63 2 1 2 2.0
2016-06-02 79 64 2 1 2 2.0
2016-06-03 78 64 2 1 2 3.0
2016-06-04 78 64 2 1 2 3.0
2016-06-05 78 64 2 1 2 3.0
2016-06-06 78 64 2 1 2 3.0
2016-06-07 78 64 2 1 2 3.0
2016-06-08 78 64 2 1 2 3.0
2016-06-09 78 64 2 1 2 3.0
2016-06-10 78 64 2 1 2 3.0
2016-06-11 78 63 2 1 2 4.0
2016-06-12 78 63 2 1 2 4.0
2016-06-13 78 64 2 1 1 4.0
2016-06-14 78 65 2 1 1 3.0
2016-06-15 79 65 2 1 1 2.0
2016-06-16 79 65 2 1 1 2.0
2016-06-17 79 65 2 1 1 2.0
2016-06-18 79 65 2 1 1 2.0

Tally of seats by Party and Date, allocating equal favourites proportionately to parties
Any Other Coalition Green Ind Katter Labor NXT
May 12 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 13 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 14 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 15 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 16 0.0 78.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 68.0 0.0
May 17 0.0 79.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 67.0 0.0
May 18 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 19 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 20 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 21 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 22 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 23 0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
May 24 0.0 81.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.0 0.0
May 25 0.0 81.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.0 0.0
May 26 0.0 81.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 64.0 0.0
May 27 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
May 28 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
May 29 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
May 30 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
May 31 0.0 81.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.5 0.0
Jun 01 0.0 81.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 64.0 0.0
Jun 02 0.0 80.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.0 0.0
Jun 03 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 04 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 05 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 06 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 07 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 08 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 09 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 10 0.0 79.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0
Jun 11 0.0 80.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.0 0.0
Jun 12 0.0 80.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 65.0 0.0
Jun 13 0.0 80.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 66.0 0.0
Jun 14 0.0 79.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 66.5 0.0
Jun 15 0.0 80.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 66.0 0.0
Jun 16 0.0 80.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 66.0 0.0
Jun 17 0.0 80.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 66.0 0.0
Jun 18 0.0 80.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 66.0 0.0

Seats ranked by closeness
Ranked by Closeness Win Probability (%)
Sat 18 June Fri 17 June Change in Rank Any Other Coalition Green Ind Katter Labor NXT
Page (NSW) 1 1 0 3.21 47.52 1.74 0.00 0.00 47.52 0.00
Swan (WA) 1 1 0 2.63 47.81 1.75 0.00 0.00 47.81 0.00
Brisbane (QLD) 3 3 0 2.91 49.14 2.60 0.00 0.00 45.36 0.00
Eden Monaro (NSW) 4 4 0 3.79 44.09 1.73 0.00 0.00 50.39 0.00
Cowan (WA) 5 5 0 2.62 44.62 1.75 0.00 0.00 51.00 0.00
Hasluck (WA) 6 11 -5 2.68 43.42 1.79 0.00 0.00 52.11 0.00
Lyons (TAS) 7 7 0 2.61 55.38 1.74 0.00 0.00 40.28 0.00
Dunkley (VIC) 8 6 2 2.19 56.13 1.76 0.00 0.00 39.92 0.00
Solomon (NT) 9 8 1 3.50 36.68 2.15 0.87 0.00 56.80 0.00
Macarthur (NSW) 10 9 1 0.00 34.82 1.71 0.00 0.00 58.03 5.44
Capricornia (QLD) 11 10 1 1.17 35.43 1.74 0.00 2.61 59.05 0.00
La Trobe (Vic) 12 11 1 2.64 59.75 1.76 0.00 0.00 35.85 0.00
Forde (QLD) 12 11 1 2.64 59.75 1.76 0.00 0.00 35.85 0.00
Braddon (TAS) 12 11 1 2.64 59.75 1.76 0.00 0.00 35.85 0.00
Mayo (SA) 15 23 -8 2.50 59.07 2.74 0.00 0.00 1.67 34.02
Hindmarsh (SA) 16 16 0 2.42 56.80 1.61 0.00 0.00 31.68 7.49
Burt (WA) 17 15 2 2.69 33.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.46 0.00
Robertson (NSW) 18 17 1 5.64 61.41 1.69 0.00 0.00 31.27 0.00
Deakin (VIC) 19 19 0 2.60 65.38 2.60 0.00 0.00 29.42 0.00
Banks (NSW) 20 20 0 2.93 65.74 1.74 0.00 0.00 29.58 0.00
Dobell (NSW) 21 21 0 2.65 29.67 1.75 0.00 0.00 65.93 0.00
Grey (SA) 22 22 0 2.39 63.90 1.59 0.00 0.00 5.07 27.05
Macquarie (NSW) 23 18 5 4.86 65.07 3.20 0.00 0.00 26.87 0.00
New England (NSW) 24 24 0 4.50 65.51 1.67 25.81 0.00 2.50 0.00
Chisholm (VIC) 25 40 -15 2.62 27.03 1.75 0.00 0.00 68.60 0.00
Gilmore (NSW) 26 25 1 0.90 69.82 1.78 0.00 0.00 27.50 0.00
Leichhardt (QLD) 27 26 1 4.19 70.33 1.72 0.00 0.00 23.76 0.00
Paterson (NSW) 28 27 1 2.90 23.43 3.38 0.00 0.00 70.29 0.00
Petrie (QLD) 29 28 1 3.41 23.61 2.16 0.00 0.00 70.83 0.00
Herbert (QLD) 30 29 1 6.55 69.56 1.64 0.00 0.00 22.26 0.00
Bass (TAS) 31 30 1 2.64 71.70 1.76 0.00 0.00 23.90 0.00
Reid (NSW) 32 31 1 1.50 72.54 1.78 0.00 0.00 24.18 0.00
Lingiari (NT) 33 32 1 4.08 22.02 1.73 0.00 0.00 72.18 0.00
Indi (VIC) 34 33 1 2.44 21.37 1.63 72.13 0.00 2.44 0.00
Longman (QLD) 35 35 0 2.60 73.59 1.73 0.00 0.00 22.08 0.00
Dawson (QLD) 36 36 0 1.98 72.94 1.67 0.00 2.08 21.33 0.00
Bruce (VIC) 37 37 0 2.14 21.90 1.72 0.00 0.00 74.24 0.00
Batman (VIC) 38 38 0 2.50 2.50 21.22 0.00 0.00 73.79 0.00
Boothby (SA) 39 39 0 2.41 69.38 1.61 0.00 0.00 10.23 16.37
Flynn (QLD) 40 40 0 2.62 74.38 1.75 0.00 0.00 21.25 0.00
Grayndler (NSW) 41 42 -1 4.78 3.22 19.31 0.00 0.00 72.70 0.00
Bonner (QLD) 42 34 8 2.81 75.12 1.68 0.00 0.00 20.39 0.00
Cowper (NSW) 43 43 0 2.01 74.38 1.71 19.34 0.00 2.56 0.00
Stirling (WA) 44 44 0 2.61 75.91 1.74 0.00 0.00 19.74 0.00
Richmond (NSW) 45 45 0 2.23 16.85 7.66 0.00 0.00 73.26 0.00
Sturt (SA) 46 46 0 0.00 73.69 1.66 0.00 0.00 7.70 16.95
Greenway (NSW) 47 47 0 3.23 17.77 1.74 0.00 0.00 77.26 0.00
Corangamite (VIC) 48 48 0 2.63 77.74 1.75 0.00 0.00 17.88 0.00
Lindsay (NSW) 49 49 0 5.71 76.01 1.64 0.00 0.00 13.94 2.70
Wakefield (SA) 50 50 0 2.48 5.26 1.65 0.00 0.00 76.57 14.04
Higgins (VIC) 51 51 0 2.51 77.54 14.22 0.00 0.00 4.06 1.67
Hinkler (QLD) 52 52 0 5.66 78.54 1.66 0.00 0.00 14.14 0.00
Parramatta (NSW) 53 53 0 4.31 14.56 1.71 0.00 0.00 79.41 0.00
Kingston (SA) 54 54 0 2.43 6.89 1.62 0.00 0.00 77.25 11.81
Dickson (QLD) 55 55 0 3.40 80.17 1.73 0.00 0.00 14.70 0.00
Bendigo (VIC) 56 56 0 2.61 14.82 1.74 0.00 0.00 80.82 0.00
Wills (VIC) 56 56 0 1.74 2.61 14.82 0.00 0.00 80.82 0.00
Aston (VIC) 58 58 0 4.15 80.17 1.65 0.00 0.00 14.03 0.00
Makin (SA) 59 59 0 2.49 5.30 1.66 0.00 0.00 78.45 12.10
Bowman (QLD) 60 60 0 1.19 82.00 1.77 0.00 0.00 15.03 0.00
Werriwa (NSW) 61 61 0 0.90 15.08 1.77 0.00 0.00 82.25 0.00
Warringah (NSW) 62 62 0 2.83 76.23 1.52 8.64 0.00 3.70 7.07
Adelaide (SA) 63 70 -7 2.55 10.08 1.68 0.00 0.00 77.90 7.79
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 64 63 1 2.49 10.59 8.47 0.00 0.00 78.45 0.00
Barker (SA) 65 64 1 2.49 80.52 1.66 0.00 0.00 3.25 12.08
Franklin (TAS) 66 65 1 2.55 12.37 4.12 0.00 0.00 80.95 0.00
Griffith (QLD) 67 66 1 2.59 12.57 2.59 0.00 0.00 82.25 0.00
Fremantle (WA) 68 67 1 2.51 2.51 12.18 0.00 0.00 82.80 0.00
Moreton (QLD) 69 68 1 2.43 10.32 1.62 0.00 0.00 81.71 3.93
Sydney (NSW) 70 69 1 4.29 2.54 10.81 0.00 0.00 82.36 0.00
Perth (WA) 71 71 0 1.70 10.83 3.33 0.00 0.00 84.14 0.00
Blair (QLD) 72 72 0 4.06 10.36 1.73 0.00 0.00 83.86 0.00
Mackellar (NSW) 73 87 -14 9.49 83.27 3.23 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.00
Melbourne (VIC) 74 73 1 3.40 2.60 84.18 0.00 0.00 9.82 0.00
Lilley (QLD) 75 74 1 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00
Oxley (QLD) 75 74 1 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00
Casey (VIC) 75 74 1 2.63 85.11 1.75 0.00 0.00 10.51 0.00
Brand (WA) 75 74 1 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00
McEwen (VIC) 75 74 1 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00
Barton (NSW) 80 79 1 2.08 10.57 1.76 0.00 0.00 85.59 0.00
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 81 80 1 1.49 10.64 1.77 0.00 0.00 86.10 0.00
Menzies (VIC) 82 81 1 2.52 84.73 1.68 7.78 0.00 3.29 0.00
North Sydney (NSW) 83 82 1 7.77 85.16 1.69 0.00 0.00 5.38 0.00
Denison (TAS) 84 83 1 2.51 4.07 1.68 84.62 0.00 7.12 0.00
Wide Bay (QLD) 85 84 1 5.36 84.96 2.52 0.00 0.00 7.15 0.00
Port Adelaide (SA) 86 85 1 2.53 3.31 1.69 0.00 0.00 85.29 7.18
Kennedy (QLD) 87 86 1 0.87 7.30 1.72 0.00 86.74 3.37 0.00
Maranoa (QLD) 88 87 1 7.31 86.80 1.72 0.00 0.00 4.17 0.00
Bennelong (NSW) 89 89 0 3.76 87.17 1.73 0.00 0.00 7.34 0.00
Groom (QLD) 90 90 0 5.40 85.48 1.69 0.00 0.00 3.32 4.11
Pearce (WA) 91 91 0 2.62 88.21 1.75 0.00 0.00 7.42 0.00
Ballarat (VIC) 91 91 0 2.62 7.42 1.75 0.00 0.00 88.21 0.00
Fisher (QLD) 91 91 0 2.62 88.21 1.75 0.00 0.00 7.42 0.00
Berowra (NSW) 94 94 0 2.36 88.44 1.75 0.00 0.00 7.44 0.00
Bradfield (NSW) 95 95 0 2.07 88.70 1.76 0.00 0.00 7.47 0.00
Corio (VIC) 96 96 0 5.56 5.56 1.74 0.00 0.00 87.15 0.00
Blaxland (NSW) 97 97 0 1.49 7.51 1.77 0.00 0.00 89.23 0.00
Canberra (ACT) 98 98 0 0.90 7.56 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.77 0.00
Gellibrand (VIC) 99 99 0 2.62 3.43 5.58 0.00 0.00 88.36 0.00
Scullin (VIC) 99 99 0 2.62 3.43 5.58 0.00 0.00 88.36 0.00
Mallee (VIC) 101 101 0 5.58 88.42 1.75 0.00 0.00 4.25 0.00
Hunter(NSW) 102 102 0 3.57 5.62 1.76 0.00 0.00 89.05 0.00
Newcastle (NSW) 103 103 0 2.99 5.65 1.77 0.00 0.00 89.58 0.00
Fadden (QLD) 104 104 0 2.97 89.60 1.77 0.00 0.00 5.66 0.00
Hume (NSW) 105 105 0 2.11 90.05 1.78 0.00 0.00 6.06 0.00
Rankin (QLD) 106 106 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Wannon (VIC) 106 106 0 5.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 2.67 0.00
Tangney (WA) 106 106 0 0.00 89.88 1.78 5.67 0.00 2.67 0.00
Ryan (QLD) 106 106 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Moore (WA) 106 106 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Wright (QLD) 106 106 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Hotham (VIC) 106 106 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Forrest (WA) 106 106 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Moncrieff (QLD) 106 106 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Gippsland (VIC) 106 106 0 5.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 2.67 0.00
Goldstein (VIC) 106 106 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Gorton (VIC) 106 106 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Holt (VIC) 106 106 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Fairfax (QLD) 106 106 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Isaacs (VIC) 106 106 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Flinders (VIC) 106 106 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Jagajaga (VIC) 106 106 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Lalor (VIC) 106 106 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Canning (WA) 106 106 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Calwell (VIC) 106 106 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Maribyrnong (VIC) 106 106 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Curtin (WA) 106 106 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
McMillan (VIC) 106 106 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
McPherson (QLD) 106 106 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Kooyong (VIC) 106 106 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Whitlam (NSW) 131 131 0 1.50 2.68 5.69 0.00 0.00 90.13 0.00
Cook (NSW) 131 131 0 1.50 90.13 5.69 0.00 0.00 2.68 0.00
Calare (NSW) 133 133 0 3.25 88.94 0.89 0.00 0.00 4.28 2.64
Fenner (ACT) 134 134 0 1.81 5.72 1.80 0.00 0.00 90.67 0.00
Hughes (NSW) 135 135 0 1.52 90.94 1.80 0.00 0.00 5.74 0.00
Chifley (NSW) 135 135 0 1.52 5.74 1.80 0.00 0.00 90.94 0.00
Durack (WA) 137 137 0 5.30 90.55 1.66 0.00 0.00 2.49 0.00
McMahon (NSW) 138 138 0 1.22 5.76 1.81 0.00 0.00 91.22 0.00
Mitchell (NSW) 139 139 0 0.91 91.50 1.81 0.00 0.00 5.78 0.00
Shortland (NSW) 139 139 0 0.91 5.78 1.81 0.00 0.00 91.50 0.00
Wentworth (NSW) 141 141 0 2.83 90.99 1.80 0.00 0.00 4.38 0.00
Farrer (NSW) 142 142 0 2.74 91.08 1.80 0.00 0.00 4.38 0.00
Riverina (NSW) 143 143 0 2.14 91.64 1.81 0.00 0.00 4.41 0.00
Watson (NSW) 143 143 0 2.14 4.41 1.81 0.00 0.00 91.64 0.00
Lyne (NSW) 145 145 0 2.12 90.82 3.53 0.00 0.00 3.53 0.00
O'Connor (WA) 146 146 0 2.51 91.76 1.67 0.00 0.00 4.06 0.00
Fowler (NSW) 147 147 0 1.54 4.43 1.83 0.00 0.00 92.20 0.00
Cunningham (NSW) 148 148 0 2.16 3.59 1.83 0.00 0.00 92.42 0.00
Murray (VIC) 149 149 0 2.53 92.47 1.69 0.00 0.00 3.31 0.00
Parkes (NSW) 150 150 0 1.55 92.99 1.84 0.00 0.00 3.61 0.00

Full list of seats where the odds have changed on yesterday
Ranked by Closeness Win Probability (%)
Sat 18 June Fri 17 June Change in Rank Any Other Coalition Green Ind Katter Labor NXT
Hasluck (WA) 6 11 -5 2.68 43.42 1.79 0.0 0.0 52.11 0.00
Lyons (TAS) 7 7 0 2.61 55.38 1.74 0.0 0.0 40.28 0.00
Dunkley (VIC) 8 6 2 2.19 56.13 1.76 0.0 0.0 39.92 0.00
Mayo (SA) 15 23 -8 2.50 59.07 2.74 0.0 0.0 1.67 34.02
Burt (WA) 17 15 2 2.69 33.85 0.00 0.0 0.0 63.46 0.00
Macquarie (NSW) 23 18 5 4.86 65.07 3.20 0.0 0.0 26.87 0.00
Chisholm (VIC) 25 40 -15 2.62 27.03 1.75 0.0 0.0 68.60 0.00
Bonner (QLD) 42 34 8 2.81 75.12 1.68 0.0 0.0 20.39 0.00
Adelaide (SA) 63 70 -7 2.55 10.08 1.68 0.0 0.0 77.90 7.79
Mackellar (NSW) 73 87 -14 9.49 83.27 3.23 0.0 0.0 4.00 0.00

Seats where the 2016 Favourite suggests it might change from one party to another at the 2016 election.
TPP 2013 TCP 2013 2013 Outcome 2016 Favourite
Seat
Burt (WA) LIB 6.1% - Coalition Labor
Capricornia (QLD) LNP 0.8% - Coalition Labor
Cowan (WA) LIB 4.5% - Coalition Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) LIB 2.9% - Coalition Labor
Fairfax (QLD) - PUP 0.03% v LNP Palmer United Coalition
Hasluck (WA) LIB 6.0% - Coalition Labor
Macarthur (NSW) LIB 3.3% - Coalition Labor
Page (NSW) NAT 3.1% - Coalition Coalition, Labor
Petrie (QLD) LNP 0.5% - Coalition Labor
Solomon (NT) CLP 1.4% - Coalition Labor
Swan (WA) LIB 7.3% - Coalition Coalition, Labor

Complete list of Seat Probabilities (in Coalition win probability order)
Any Other Coalition Green Ind KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Batman (VIC) 2.50 2.50 21.22 0.00 0.00 73.79 0.00 Labor
Fremantle (WA) 2.51 2.51 12.18 0.00 0.00 82.80 0.00 Labor
Sydney (NSW) 4.29 2.54 10.81 0.00 0.00 82.36 0.00 Labor
Melbourne (VIC) 3.40 2.60 84.18 0.00 0.00 9.82 0.00 Green
Wills (VIC) 1.74 2.61 14.82 0.00 0.00 80.82 0.00 Labor
Whitlam (NSW) 1.50 2.68 5.69 0.00 0.00 90.13 0.00 Labor
Grayndler (NSW) 4.78 3.22 19.31 0.00 0.00 72.70 0.00 Labor
Port Adelaide (SA) 2.53 3.31 1.69 0.00 0.00 85.29 7.18 Labor
Gelibrand (VIC) 2.62 3.43 5.58 0.00 0.00 88.36 0.00 Labor
Scullin (VIC) 2.62 3.43 5.58 0.00 0.00 88.36 0.00 Labor
Cunningham (NSW) 2.16 3.59 1.83 0.00 0.00 92.42 0.00 Labor
Denison (TAS) 2.51 4.07 1.68 84.62 0.00 7.12 0.00 Independent
Watson (NSW) 2.14 4.41 1.81 0.00 0.00 91.64 0.00 Labor
Fowler (NSW) 1.54 4.43 1.83 0.00 0.00 92.20 0.00 Labor
Wakefield (SA) 2.48 5.26 1.65 0.00 0.00 76.57 14.04 Labor
Makin (SA) 2.49 5.30 1.66 0.00 0.00 78.45 12.10 Labor
Corio (VIC) 5.56 5.56 1.74 0.00 0.00 87.15 0.00 Labor
Hunter(NSW) 3.57 5.62 1.76 0.00 0.00 89.05 0.00 Labor
Newcastle (NSW) 2.99 5.65 1.77 0.00 0.00 89.58 0.00 Labor
Lalor (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00 Labor
Rankin (QLD) 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00 Labor
Isaacs (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00 Labor
Jagajaga (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00 Labor
Maribyrnong (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00 Labor
Gorton (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00 Labor
Holt (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00 Labor
Hotham (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00 Labor
Calwell (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00 Labor
Fenner (ACT) 1.81 5.72 1.80 0.00 0.00 90.67 0.00 Labor
Chifley (NSW) 1.52 5.74 1.80 0.00 0.00 90.94 0.00 Labor
McMahon (NSW) 1.22 5.76 1.81 0.00 0.00 91.22 0.00 Labor
Shortland (NSW) 0.91 5.78 1.81 0.00 0.00 91.50 0.00 Labor
Kingston (SA) 2.43 6.89 1.62 0.00 0.00 77.25 11.81 Labor
Kennedy (QLD) 0.87 7.30 1.72 0.00 86.74 3.37 0.00 KAP (Bob Katter)
Ballarat (VIC) 2.62 7.42 1.75 0.00 0.00 88.21 0.00 Labor
Blaxland (NSW) 1.49 7.51 1.77 0.00 0.00 89.23 0.00 Labor
Canberra (ACT) 0.90 7.56 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.77 0.00 Labor
Adelaide (SA) 2.55 10.08 1.68 0.00 0.00 77.90 7.79 Labor
Moreton (QLD) 2.43 10.32 1.62 0.00 0.00 81.71 3.93 Labor
Blair (QLD) 4.06 10.36 1.73 0.00 0.00 83.86 0.00 Labor
McEwen (VIC) 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00 Labor
Brand (WA) 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00 Labor
Lilley (QLD) 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00 Labor
Oxley (QLD) 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00 Labor
Barton (NSW) 2.08 10.57 1.76 0.00 0.00 85.59 0.00 Labor
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 2.49 10.59 8.47 0.00 0.00 78.45 0.00 Labor
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 1.49 10.64 1.77 0.00 0.00 86.10 0.00 Labor
Perth (WA) 1.70 10.83 3.33 0.00 0.00 84.14 0.00 Labor
Franklin (TAS) 2.55 12.37 4.12 0.00 0.00 80.95 0.00 Labor
Griffith (QLD) 2.59 12.57 2.59 0.00 0.00 82.25 0.00 Labor
Parramatta (NSW) 4.31 14.56 1.71 0.00 0.00 79.41 0.00 Labor
Bendigo (VIC) 2.61 14.82 1.74 0.00 0.00 80.82 0.00 Labor
Werriwa (NSW) 0.90 15.08 1.77 0.00 0.00 82.25 0.00 Labor
Richmond (NSW) 2.23 16.85 7.66 0.00 0.00 73.26 0.00 Labor
Greenway (NSW) 3.23 17.77 1.74 0.00 0.00 77.26 0.00 Labor
Indi (VIC) 2.44 21.37 1.63 72.13 0.00 2.44 0.00 Independent
Bruce (VIC) 2.14 21.90 1.72 0.00 0.00 74.24 0.00 Labor
Lingiari (NT) 4.08 22.02 1.73 0.00 0.00 72.18 0.00 Labor
Paterson (NSW) 2.90 23.43 3.38 0.00 0.00 70.29 0.00 Labor
Petrie (QLD) 3.41 23.61 2.16 0.00 0.00 70.83 0.00 Labor
Chisholm (VIC) 2.62 27.03 1.75 0.00 0.00 68.60 0.00 Labor
Dobell (NSW) 2.65 29.67 1.75 0.00 0.00 65.93 0.00 Labor
Burt (WA) 2.69 33.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.46 0.00 Labor
Macarthur (NSW) 0.00 34.82 1.71 0.00 0.00 58.03 5.44 Labor
Capricornia (QLD) 1.17 35.43 1.74 0.00 2.61 59.05 0.00 Labor
Solomon (NT) 3.50 36.68 2.15 0.87 0.00 56.80 0.00 Labor
Hasluck (WA) 2.68 43.42 1.79 0.00 0.00 52.11 0.00 Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) 3.79 44.09 1.73 0.00 0.00 50.39 0.00 Labor
Cowan (WA) 2.62 44.62 1.75 0.00 0.00 51.00 0.00 Labor
Page (NSW) 3.21 47.52 1.74 0.00 0.00 47.52 0.00 Coalition, Labor
Swan (WA) 2.63 47.81 1.75 0.00 0.00 47.81 0.00 Coalition, Labor
Brisbane (QLD) 2.91 49.14 2.60 0.00 0.00 45.36 0.00 Coalition
Lyons (TAS) 2.61 55.38 1.74 0.00 0.00 40.28 0.00 Coalition
Dunkley (VIC) 2.19 56.13 1.76 0.00 0.00 39.92 0.00 Coalition
Hindmarsh (SA) 2.42 56.80 1.61 0.00 0.00 31.68 7.49 Coalition
Mayo (SA) 2.50 59.07 2.74 0.00 0.00 1.67 34.02 Coalition
Forde (QLD) 2.64 59.75 1.76 0.00 0.00 35.85 0.00 Coalition
Braddon (TAS) 2.64 59.75 1.76 0.00 0.00 35.85 0.00 Coalition
La Trobe (Vic) 2.64 59.75 1.76 0.00 0.00 35.85 0.00 Coalition
Robertson (NSW) 5.64 61.41 1.69 0.00 0.00 31.27 0.00 Coalition
Grey (SA) 2.39 63.90 1.59 0.00 0.00 5.07 27.05 Coalition
Macquarie (NSW) 4.86 65.07 3.20 0.00 0.00 26.87 0.00 Coalition
Deakin (VIC) 2.60 65.38 2.60 0.00 0.00 29.42 0.00 Coalition
New England (NSW) 4.50 65.51 1.67 25.81 0.00 2.50 0.00 Coalition
Banks (NSW) 2.93 65.74 1.74 0.00 0.00 29.58 0.00 Coalition
Boothby (SA) 2.41 69.38 1.61 0.00 0.00 10.23 16.37 Coalition
Herbert (QLD) 6.55 69.56 1.64 0.00 0.00 22.26 0.00 Coalition
Gilmore (NSW) 0.90 69.82 1.78 0.00 0.00 27.50 0.00 Coalition
Leichhardt (QLD) 4.19 70.33 1.72 0.00 0.00 23.76 0.00 Coalition
Bass (TAS) 2.64 71.70 1.76 0.00 0.00 23.90 0.00 Coalition
Reid (NSW) 1.50 72.54 1.78 0.00 0.00 24.18 0.00 Coalition
Dawson (QLD) 1.98 72.94 1.67 0.00 2.08 21.33 0.00 Coalition
Longman (QLD) 2.60 73.59 1.73 0.00 0.00 22.08 0.00 Coalition
Sturt (SA) 0.00 73.69 1.66 0.00 0.00 7.70 16.95 Coalition
Flynn (QLD) 2.62 74.38 1.75 0.00 0.00 21.25 0.00 Coalition
Cowper (NSW) 2.01 74.38 1.71 19.34 0.00 2.56 0.00 Coalition
Bonner (QLD) 2.81 75.12 1.68 0.00 0.00 20.39 0.00 Coalition
Stirling (WA) 2.61 75.91 1.74 0.00 0.00 19.74 0.00 Coalition
Lindsay (NSW) 5.71 76.01 1.64 0.00 0.00 13.94 2.70 Coalition
Warringah (NSW) 2.83 76.23 1.52 8.64 0.00 3.70 7.07 Coalition
Higgins (VIC) 2.51 77.54 14.22 0.00 0.00 4.06 1.67 Coalition
Corangamite (VIC) 2.63 77.74 1.75 0.00 0.00 17.88 0.00 Coalition
Hinkler (QLD) 5.66 78.54 1.66 0.00 0.00 14.14 0.00 Coalition
Dickson (QLD) 3.40 80.17 1.73 0.00 0.00 14.70 0.00 Coalition
Aston (VIC) 4.15 80.17 1.65 0.00 0.00 14.03 0.00 Coalition
Barker (SA) 2.49 80.52 1.66 0.00 0.00 3.25 12.08 Coalition
Bowman (QLD) 1.19 82.00 1.77 0.00 0.00 15.03 0.00 Coalition
Mackellar (NSW) 9.49 83.27 3.23 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.00 Coalition
Menzies (VIC) 2.52 84.73 1.68 7.78 0.00 3.29 0.00 Coalition
Wide Bay (QLD) 5.36 84.96 2.52 0.00 0.00 7.15 0.00 Coalition
Casey (VIC) 2.63 85.11 1.75 0.00 0.00 10.51 0.00 Coalition
North Sydney (NSW) 7.77 85.16 1.69 0.00 0.00 5.38 0.00 Coalition
Groom (QLD) 5.40 85.48 1.69 0.00 0.00 3.32 4.11 Coalition
Maranoa (QLD) 7.31 86.80 1.72 0.00 0.00 4.17 0.00 Coalition
Bennelong (NSW) 3.76 87.17 1.73 0.00 0.00 7.34 0.00 Coalition
Fisher (QLD) 2.62 88.21 1.75 0.00 0.00 7.42 0.00 Coalition
Pearce (WA) 2.62 88.21 1.75 0.00 0.00 7.42 0.00 Coalition
Mallee (VIC) 5.58 88.42 1.75 0.00 0.00 4.25 0.00 Coalition
Berowra (NSW) 2.36 88.44 1.75 0.00 0.00 7.44 0.00 Coalition
Bradfield (NSW) 2.07 88.70 1.76 0.00 0.00 7.47 0.00 Coalition
Calare (NSW) 3.25 88.94 0.89 0.00 0.00 4.28 2.64 Coalition
Fadden (QLD) 2.97 89.60 1.77 0.00 0.00 5.66 0.00 Coalition
Ryan (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00 Coalition
Tangney (WA) 0.00 89.88 1.78 5.67 0.00 2.67 0.00 Coalition
Wannon (VIC) 5.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 2.67 0.00 Coalition
Wright (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00 Coalition
Goldstein (VIC) 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00 Coalition
Canning (WA) 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00 Coalition
Moore (WA) 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00 Coalition
Moncrieff (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00 Coalition
Curtin (WA) 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00 Coalition
McPherson (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00 Coalition
McMillan (VIC) 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00 Coalition
Kooyong (VIC) 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00 Coalition
Gippsland (VIC) 5.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 2.67 0.00 Coalition
Forrest (WA) 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00 Coalition
Flinders (VIC) 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00 Coalition
Fairfax (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00 Coalition
Hume (NSW) 2.11 90.05 1.78 0.00 0.00 6.06 0.00 Coalition
Cook (NSW) 1.50 90.13 5.69 0.00 0.00 2.68 0.00 Coalition
Durack (WA) 5.30 90.55 1.66 0.00 0.00 2.49 0.00 Coalition
Lyne (NSW) 2.12 90.82 3.53 0.00 0.00 3.53 0.00 Coalition
Hughes (NSW) 1.52 90.94 1.80 0.00 0.00 5.74 0.00 Coalition
Wentworth (NSW) 2.83 90.99 1.80 0.00 0.00 4.38 0.00 Coalition
Farrer (NSW) 2.74 91.08 1.80 0.00 0.00 4.38 0.00 Coalition
Mitchell (NSW) 0.91 91.50 1.81 0.00 0.00 5.78 0.00 Coalition
Riverina (NSW) 2.14 91.64 1.81 0.00 0.00 4.41 0.00 Coalition
O'Connor (WA) 2.51 91.76 1.67 0.00 0.00 4.06 0.00 Coalition
Murray (VIC) 2.53 92.47 1.69 0.00 0.00 3.31 0.00 Coalition
Parkes (NSW) 1.55 92.99 1.84 0.00 0.00 3.61 0.00 Coalition

Let's now look at the individual seat charts.























































































































































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