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Saturday, June 11, 2016

Indiviual seats on the betting market

I have been following the individual seat odds at SportsBet since 12 June. Each morning, usually over breakfast, I download the odds for the day, which I then plot.

On some days, the odds for a particular seat are missing. On those days, I plot the last known odds to ensure my tally of seat favourites comes to 150 seats. Today, for example, there were no odds for Lingiari (NT) and Murray (VIC). A table of missing odds by date follows.

Missing Odds
2016-05-19 O'Connor (WA)
2016-05-20 O'Connor (WA)
2016-06-03 Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-04 Indi (VIC) Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-05 Indi (VIC) Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-06 Indi (VIC) Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-07 Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-09 Lingiari (NT) Solomon (NT)
2016-06-10 Brisbane (QLD) Lingiari (NT)
2016-06-11 Lingiari (NT) Murray (VIC)

The big movers in today's odds were:

Ranked by Closeness Win Probability (%)
Today Yesterday Change in Rank Any Other Coalition Green Ind. Katter Labor NXT
Page (NSW) 1 6 -5 2.63 47.81 1.75 0.00 0.0 47.81 0.00
Grey (SA) 30 69 -39 2.48 66.47 1.66 0.00 0.0 5.28 24.12
Cowper (NSW) 66 80 -14 0.00 80.51 2.51 14.22 0.0 2.75 0.00

The full table from today is at the end of this post. The charts for each seat follow in alphabetic order.
























































































































































Which tallies as follows:



The final table is a list of all the seats ranked by closeness. I have defined closeness as the difference between the favourite and the candidate with the 2nd highest win probability. This means that all seats with equal favourites will be ranked 1.

Ranked by Closeness Win Probability (%)
Today Yesterday Change in Rank Any Other Coalition Green Ind. Katter Labor NXT
Page (NSW) 1 6 -5 2.63 47.81 1.75 0.00 0.00 47.81 0.00
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1 1 0 1.77 48.23 1.77 0.00 0.00 48.23 0.00
Swan (WA) 1 1 0 2.63 47.81 1.75 0.00 0.00 47.81 0.00
Hindmarsh (SA) 1 1 0 2.43 44.22 1.62 0.00 0.00 44.22 7.52
Macarthur (NSW) 5 4 1 2.49 42.27 1.66 0.00 0.00 48.31 5.28
Hasluck (WA) 6 5 1 2.59 43.97 1.72 0.00 0.00 51.72 0.00
Brisbane (QLD) 7 7 0 3.37 54.16 2.58 0.00 0.00 39.88 0.00
La Trobe (Vic) 8 8 0 2.63 55.88 1.75 0.00 0.00 39.74 0.00
Robertson (NSW) 9 9 0 2.58 55.86 2.58 0.00 0.00 38.98 0.00
Reid (NSW) 10 10 0 2.58 56.66 1.72 0.00 0.00 39.03 0.00
Dunkley (VIC) 11 11 0 2.19 56.93 1.76 0.00 0.00 39.11 0.00
Lyons (TAS) 12 12 0 2.63 57.62 1.75 0.00 0.00 38.00 0.00
Solomon (NT) 13 13 0 3.36 36.41 2.13 1.71 0.00 56.38 0.00
Bonner (QLD) 14 14 0 2.56 57.95 1.70 0.00 0.00 37.79 0.00
Batman (VIC) 15 15 0 2.57 3.37 58.34 0.00 0.00 35.72 0.00
Macquarie (NSW) 16 16 0 3.36 58.30 3.36 0.00 0.00 34.98 0.00
Deakin (VIC) 17 17 0 2.61 59.23 2.61 0.00 0.00 35.54 0.00
Forde (QLD) 18 18 0 2.64 59.75 1.76 0.00 0.00 35.85 0.00
Corangamite (VIC) 18 18 0 2.64 59.75 1.76 0.00 0.00 35.85 0.00
Braddon (TAS) 18 18 0 2.64 59.75 1.76 0.00 0.00 35.85 0.00
Burt (WA) 21 21 0 2.68 36.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.82 0.00
Gilmore (NSW) 22 22 0 2.58 60.57 1.72 0.00 0.00 35.13 0.00
Lindsay (NSW) 23 23 0 2.41 60.62 1.60 0.00 0.00 31.47 3.90
Stirling (WA) 24 24 0 2.62 65.96 1.75 0.00 0.00 29.68 0.00
Cowan (WA) 24 24 0 2.62 29.68 1.75 0.00 0.00 65.96 0.00
Banks (NSW) 24 24 0 2.62 65.96 1.75 0.00 0.00 29.68 0.00
Dobell (NSW) 24 24 0 2.62 29.68 1.75 0.00 0.00 65.96 0.00
New England (NSW) 28 28 0 2.56 66.85 1.70 26.33 0.00 2.56 0.00
Grayndler (NSW) 29 29 0 2.57 4.16 26.08 0.00 0.00 67.20 0.00
Grey (SA) 30 69 -39 2.48 66.47 1.66 0.00 0.00 5.28 24.12
Adelaide (SA) 31 30 1 2.53 21.51 1.69 0.00 0.00 64.71 9.56
Mayo (SA) 32 31 1 2.55 68.21 2.79 0.00 0.00 1.70 24.75
Capricornia (QLD) 33 32 1 2.64 25.60 1.76 0.00 0.00 70.01 0.00
Paterson (NSW) 34 33 1 5.05 22.91 3.30 0.00 0.00 68.73 0.00
Petrie (QLD) 35 34 1 3.41 23.61 2.16 0.00 0.00 70.83 0.00
Richmond (NSW) 36 35 1 2.55 19.25 11.55 0.00 0.00 66.65 0.00
Bass (TAS) 37 36 1 2.64 71.70 1.76 0.00 0.00 23.90 0.00
Herbert (QLD) 38 37 1 4.19 71.31 1.68 0.00 0.00 22.82 0.00
Lingiari (NT) 39 38 1 5.06 21.79 1.71 0.00 0.00 71.44 0.00
Indi (VIC) 40 39 1 2.44 21.37 1.63 72.13 0.00 2.44 0.00
Bruce (VIC) 41 40 1 2.63 22.35 1.75 0.00 0.00 73.27 0.00
Longman (QLD) 42 41 1 2.60 73.59 1.73 0.00 0.00 22.08 0.00
Wills (VIC) 42 41 1 1.73 2.60 22.08 0.00 0.00 73.59 0.00
Chisholm (VIC) 44 43 1 2.62 21.25 1.75 0.00 0.00 74.38 0.00
Leichhardt (QLD) 44 43 1 2.62 74.38 1.75 0.00 0.00 21.25 0.00
Flynn (QLD) 44 43 1 2.62 74.38 1.75 0.00 0.00 21.25 0.00
Boothby (SA) 47 46 1 2.43 71.89 1.62 0.00 0.00 7.52 16.54
Kingston (SA) 48 47 1 2.45 6.93 1.63 0.00 0.00 72.35 16.64
Sturt (SA) 49 48 1 0.00 73.69 1.66 0.00 0.00 7.70 16.95
Greenway (NSW) 50 49 1 3.29 17.10 3.29 0.00 0.00 76.33 0.00
Fremantle (WA) 51 50 1 2.55 4.13 15.79 0.00 0.00 77.52 0.00
Wakefield (SA) 52 51 1 2.48 5.26 1.65 0.00 0.00 76.57 14.04
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 53 52 1 2.52 11.44 11.44 0.00 0.00 74.60 0.00
McEwen (VIC) 54 53 1 2.62 16.18 1.74 0.00 0.00 79.46 0.00
Higgins (VIC) 55 54 1 2.51 77.54 14.22 0.00 0.00 4.06 1.67
Sydney (NSW) 56 55 1 3.36 4.16 14.55 0.00 0.00 77.94 0.00
Wide Bay (QLD) 57 56 1 5.35 77.86 2.52 0.00 0.00 14.27 0.00
Warringah (NSW) 58 57 1 2.33 74.62 1.55 10.55 0.00 3.77 7.19
Hinkler (QLD) 59 58 1 5.66 78.54 1.66 0.00 0.00 14.14 0.00
Werriwa (NSW) 60 59 1 3.39 14.70 1.73 0.00 0.00 80.18 0.00
Parramatta (NSW) 61 60 1 2.61 14.82 1.74 0.00 0.00 80.82 0.00
Bowman (QLD) 61 60 1 2.61 80.82 1.74 0.00 0.00 14.82 0.00
Bendigo (VIC) 61 60 1 2.61 14.82 1.74 0.00 0.00 80.82 0.00
Dickson (QLD) 61 60 1 2.61 80.82 1.74 0.00 0.00 14.82 0.00
Dawson (QLD) 61 60 1 2.61 80.82 1.74 0.00 0.00 14.82 0.00
Cowper (NSW) 66 80 -14 0.00 80.51 2.51 14.22 0.00 2.75 0.00
Makin (SA) 67 65 2 2.49 5.30 1.66 0.00 0.00 78.45 12.10
Aston (VIC) 68 66 2 2.52 81.53 1.68 0.00 0.00 14.27 0.00
Barker (SA) 69 67 2 2.49 80.52 1.66 0.00 0.00 3.25 12.08
Franklin (TAS) 70 68 2 2.55 12.37 4.12 0.00 0.00 80.95 0.00
Griffith (QLD) 71 70 1 2.61 11.83 2.61 0.00 0.00 82.95 0.00
Barton (NSW) 72 71 1 3.35 10.26 3.35 0.00 0.00 83.04 0.00
Perth (WA) 73 72 1 1.70 10.83 3.33 0.00 0.00 84.14 0.00
Melbourne (VIC) 74 73 1 3.40 2.60 84.18 0.00 0.00 9.82 0.00
Lilley (QLD) 75 74 1 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00
Blair (QLD) 75 74 1 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00
Brand (WA) 75 74 1 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00
Casey (VIC) 75 74 1 2.63 85.11 1.75 0.00 0.00 10.51 0.00
Oxley (QLD) 75 74 1 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 75 74 1 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00
Moreton (QLD) 81 81 0 2.48 7.03 1.65 0.00 0.00 83.56 5.27
Menzies (VIC) 82 82 0 2.52 84.73 1.68 7.78 0.00 3.29 0.00
Denison (TAS) 83 83 0 2.51 4.07 1.68 84.62 0.00 7.12 0.00
Kennedy (QLD) 84 84 0 2.53 7.18 1.69 0.00 85.29 3.31 0.00
Port Adelaide (SA) 84 84 0 2.53 3.31 1.69 0.00 0.00 85.29 7.18
Cook (NSW) 86 86 0 5.31 84.08 5.31 0.00 0.00 5.31 0.00
Parkes (NSW) 87 87 0 7.24 86.07 3.34 0.00 0.00 3.34 0.00
Lyne (NSW) 87 87 0 7.24 86.07 3.34 0.00 0.00 3.34 0.00
Mackellar (NSW) 89 89 0 0.00 86.80 1.72 7.31 0.00 4.17 0.00
Maranoa (QLD) 89 89 0 7.31 86.80 1.72 0.00 0.00 4.17 0.00
Groom (QLD) 91 91 0 5.40 85.48 1.69 0.00 0.00 3.32 4.11
Berowra (NSW) 92 92 0 3.40 87.50 1.73 0.00 0.00 7.36 0.00
Blaxland (NSW) 92 92 0 3.40 7.36 1.73 0.00 0.00 87.50 0.00
Calare (NSW) 94 94 0 2.56 86.15 1.71 0.00 0.00 4.14 5.44
Pearce (WA) 95 95 0 2.62 88.21 1.75 0.00 0.00 7.42 0.00
Fisher (QLD) 95 95 0 2.62 88.21 1.75 0.00 0.00 7.42 0.00
Bennelong (NSW) 95 95 0 2.62 88.21 1.75 0.00 0.00 7.42 0.00
Canberra (ACT) 95 95 0 2.62 7.42 1.75 0.00 0.00 88.21 0.00
Ballarat (VIC) 95 95 0 2.62 7.42 1.75 0.00 0.00 88.21 0.00
Bradfield (NSW) 95 95 0 2.62 88.21 1.75 0.00 0.00 7.42 0.00
Corio (VIC) 101 101 0 5.56 5.56 1.74 0.00 0.00 87.15 0.00
Gellibrand (VIC) 102 102 0 2.62 3.43 5.58 0.00 0.00 88.36 0.00
Scullin (VIC) 102 102 0 2.62 3.43 5.58 0.00 0.00 88.36 0.00
Mallee (VIC) 104 104 0 5.58 88.42 1.75 0.00 0.00 4.25 0.00
Whitlam (NSW) 105 105 0 2.89 2.64 5.61 0.00 0.00 88.86 0.00
Hume (NSW) 106 106 0 2.66 89.54 1.77 0.00 0.00 6.03 0.00
Newcastle (NSW) 107 107 0 2.74 5.82 1.83 0.00 0.00 89.61 0.00
North Sydney (NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Wannon (VIC) 108 108 0 5.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 2.67 0.00
Rankin (QLD) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Ryan (QLD) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Watson (NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Shortland (NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Tangney (WA) 108 108 0 0.00 89.88 1.78 5.67 0.00 2.67 0.00
Hughes (NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Moore (WA) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Calwell (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Canning (WA) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Chifley (NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Curtin (WA) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Fadden (QLD) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Fairfax (QLD) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Fenner (ACT) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Flinders (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Forrest (WA) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Gippsland (VIC) 108 108 0 5.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 2.67 0.00
Gorton (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Holt (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Goldstein (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
McMahon (NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Moncrieff (QLD) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Mitchell (NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
McPherson (QLD) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
McMillan (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Hotham (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Maribyrnong (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Wright (QLD) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Kooyong (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Jagajaga (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Isaacs (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Hunter(NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Lalor (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Durack (WA) 143 143 0 5.30 90.55 1.66 0.00 0.00 2.49 0.00
Farrer (NSW) 144 144 0 4.31 89.61 1.77 0.00 0.00 4.31 0.00
Riverina (NSW) 144 144 0 4.31 89.61 1.77 0.00 0.00 4.31 0.00
Wentworth (NSW) 146 146 0 2.68 90.29 4.34 0.00 0.00 2.68 0.00
Cunningham (NSW) 147 147 0 4.35 3.51 1.79 0.00 0.00 90.36 0.00
Fowler (NSW) 148 148 0 2.71 4.38 1.80 0.00 0.00 91.11 0.00
O'Connor (WA) 148 148 0 2.71 91.11 1.80 0.00 0.00 4.38 0.00
Murray (VIC) 150 150 0 2.50 92.56 1.67 0.00 0.00 3.27 0.00
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