The first step was to establish the state and national starting points (ie. the TPP results from the 2013 election). For this data, I went to the AEC: http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/HouseTppByState-17496.htm.
The national swing is the latest poll aggregation minus the 2013 TPP result. A negative result means a swing to Labor. A positive result is a swing to the Coalition.
To establish the relative swings in each state, I used the latest Newspoll results for June in today's Australian and compared them with the Newspoll national swing since the 2013 election. The relative swings (in percentage points) I calculated were as follows. These are added to the national swing. A negative relative swing moves a state more to Labor than the national swing. A positive swing moves a state less to Labor than the national swing.
| NSW | VIC | QLD | WA | SA | TAS | ACT | NT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | -0.1 | 1.7 | -2.5 | -0.8 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
These swings were applied to the pendulum from the 2013 election, as adjusted for the new electoral boundaries. I used Antony Green's pendulum. The results were converted into a probability of a Coalition or Labor victory. The conversion used a cumulative density function from scipy.stats, with a standard deviation of 2.7 percentage points.
This approach did not work for all seats. It did not work for seats where an independent had won in 2013. Nor did it work for seats where independents, the Greens or Xenophon might win in 2016. For the following set of seats I substituted the poll derived probability with a betting market probability, adjusted for the longshot bias: Melbourne (VIC), Denison (TAS), Indi (VIC), Kennedy (QLD), Fairfax (QLD), Cowper (NSW), New England (NSW), Barker (SA), Boothby (SA), Grey (SA), Mayo (SA) and Batman (VIC).
From here I applied a Monte Carlo simulation for 1,000,000 iterations. With the usual caveats that go with code that has been slapped together in an hour and a half (ie. these results could be completely bogus and riddled with human error), the results of the simulation were as follows. The most likely seat outcome is 79 seats for the Coalition, 65 for Labor, and 6 others. The Coalition has an 87.7 per cent chance of forming majority government.
The seat probabilities I used for this Monte Carlo simulation are as follows.
| Any Other | Coalition | Green | Ind | Katter | Labor | NXT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seat | |||||||
| Mallee (VIC) | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Maranoa (QLD) | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.812495e-11 | 0.000000 |
| Farrer (NSW) | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.217915e-13 | 0.000000 |
| Mitchell (NSW) | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 3.635980e-13 | 0.000000 |
| Bradfield (NSW) | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.384115e-12 | 0.000000 |
| Murray (VIC) | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.658940e-15 | 0.000000 |
| Parkes (NSW) | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.812495e-11 | 0.000000 |
| Berowra (NSW) | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.635948e-10 | 0.000000 |
| Riverina (NSW) | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.635948e-10 | 0.000000 |
| Wentworth (NSW) | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 2.075012e-10 | 0.000000 |
| Mackellar (NSW) | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 2.628390e-10 | 0.000000 |
| Curtin (WA) | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 5.028657e-09 | 0.000000 |
| Moncrieff (QLD) | 0 | 9.999997e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 2.503352e-07 | 0.000000 |
| Groom (QLD) | 0 | 9.999961e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 3.901843e-06 | 0.000000 |
| Cook (NSW) | 0 | 9.999998e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.697103e-07 | 0.000000 |
| Gippsland (VIC) | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 4.039625e-09 | 0.000000 |
| North Sydney (NSW) | 0 | 9.999998e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 2.062545e-07 | 0.000000 |
| O'Connor (WA) | 0 | 9.999984e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.614523e-06 | 0.000000 |
| Warringah (NSW) | 0 | 9.999996e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 4.440377e-07 | 0.000000 |
| Durack (WA) | 0 | 9.999981e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.931239e-06 | 0.000000 |
| Calare (NSW) | 0 | 9.999992e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 7.782812e-07 | 0.000000 |
| Menzies (VIC) | 0 | 9.999999e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 6.274431e-08 | 0.000000 |
| Fadden (QLD) | 0 | 9.998891e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.109331e-04 | 0.000000 |
| Forrest (WA) | 0 | 9.999850e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.495149e-05 | 0.000000 |
| Hume (NSW) | 0 | 9.999909e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.124021e-06 | 0.000000 |
| Lyne (NSW) | 0 | 9.999909e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.124021e-06 | 0.000000 |
| Wide Bay (QLD) | 0 | 9.994195e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 5.805289e-04 | 0.000000 |
| McPherson (QLD) | 0 | 9.992488e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 7.512405e-04 | 0.000000 |
| Tangney (WA) | 0 | 9.999288e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 7.123697e-05 | 0.000000 |
| Moore (WA) | 0 | 9.998293e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.707408e-04 | 0.000000 |
| Flinders (VIC) | 0 | 9.999909e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.124021e-06 | 0.000000 |
| Hughes (NSW) | 0 | 9.998519e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.480729e-04 | 0.000000 |
| McMillan (VIC) | 0 | 9.999909e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.124021e-06 | 0.000000 |
| Wright (QLD) | 0 | 9.968310e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 3.169028e-03 | 0.000000 |
| Canning (WA) | 0 | 9.992488e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 7.512405e-04 | 0.000000 |
| Kooyong (VIC) | 0 | 9.999716e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 2.836012e-05 | 0.000000 |
| Goldstein (VIC) | 0 | 9.999668e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 3.317359e-05 | 0.000000 |
| Sturt (SA) | 0 | 9.999612e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 3.875334e-05 | 0.000000 |
| Wannon (VIC) | 0 | 9.998718e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.282479e-04 | 0.000000 |
| Higgins (VIC) | 0 | 9.998293e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.707408e-04 | 0.000000 |
| Fisher (QLD) | 0 | 9.766504e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 2.334957e-02 | 0.000000 |
| Pearce (WA) | 0 | 9.925224e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 7.477578e-03 | 0.000000 |
| Hinkler (QLD) | 0 | 9.547458e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 4.525416e-02 | 0.000000 |
| Stirling (WA) | 0 | 9.898930e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.010699e-02 | 0.000000 |
| Bowman (QLD) | 0 | 9.511072e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 4.889277e-02 | 0.000000 |
| Ryan (QLD) | 0 | 9.341635e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 6.583650e-02 | 0.000000 |
| Aston (VIC) | 0 | 9.984213e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.578708e-03 | 0.000000 |
| Bennelong (NSW) | 0 | 9.837078e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.629221e-02 | 0.000000 |
| Dawson (QLD) | 0 | 8.798433e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.201567e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Swan (WA) | 0 | 9.547458e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 4.525416e-02 | 0.000000 |
| Casey (VIC) | 0 | 9.950830e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 4.917013e-03 | 0.000000 |
| Longman (QLD) | 0 | 8.198897e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.801103e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Dickson (QLD) | 0 | 7.997898e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 2.002102e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Flynn (QLD) | 0 | 7.783987e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 2.216013e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Herbert (QLD) | 0 | 7.439867e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 2.560133e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Burt (WA) | 0 | 8.940354e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.059646e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Hasluck (WA) | 0 | 8.870985e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.129015e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Leichhardt (QLD) | 0 | 6.810012e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 3.189988e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Dunkley (VIC) | 0 | 9.766504e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 2.334957e-02 | 0.000000 |
| Cowan (WA) | 0 | 7.439867e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 2.560133e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Macquarie (NSW) | 0 | 8.198897e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.801103e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Forde (QLD) | 0 | 4.956192e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 5.043808e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Brisbane (QLD) | 0 | 4.808508e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 5.191492e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Bass (TAS) | 0 | 7.783987e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 2.216013e-01 | 0.000000 |
| La Trobe (Vic) | 0 | 9.187069e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 8.129310e-02 | 0.000000 |
| Corangamite (VIC) | 0 | 9.129883e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 8.701166e-02 | 0.000000 |
| Gilmore (NSW) | 0 | 7.439867e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 2.560133e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Bonner (QLD) | 0 | 3.934876e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 6.065124e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Reid (NSW) | 0 | 6.941110e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 3.058890e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Macarthur (NSW) | 0 | 6.810012e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 3.189988e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Deakin (VIC) | 0 | 8.643622e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.356378e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Page (NSW) | 0 | 6.541047e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 3.458953e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Robertson (NSW) | 0 | 6.541047e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 3.458953e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Lindsay (NSW) | 0 | 6.403480e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 3.596520e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | 0 | 6.264070e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 3.735930e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Banks (NSW) | 0 | 5.836504e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 4.163496e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Braddon (TAS) | 0 | 5.980403e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 4.019597e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | 0 | 8.198897e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.801103e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Solomon (NT) | 0 | 4.222399e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 5.777601e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Lyons (TAS) | 0 | 3.934876e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 6.065124e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Capricornia (QLD) | 0 | 8.942334e-02 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.105767e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Petrie (QLD) | 0 | 7.277572e-02 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.272243e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Dobell (NSW) | 0 | 2.044599e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 7.955401e-01 | 0.000000 |
| McEwen (VIC) | 0 | 4.367835e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 5.632165e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Paterson (NSW) | 0 | 1.840947e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 8.159053e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Lingiari (NT) | 0 | 1.473151e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 8.526849e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Bendigo (VIC) | 0 | 2.855145e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 7.144855e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Lilley (QLD) | 0 | 1.691499e-02 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.830850e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Parramatta (NSW) | 0 | 1.087499e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 8.912501e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Chisholm (VIC) | 0 | 2.489975e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 7.510025e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Moreton (QLD) | 0 | 1.276776e-02 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.872322e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Richmond (NSW) | 0 | 8.942334e-02 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.105767e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Bruce (VIC) | 0 | 2.261091e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 7.738909e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Perth (WA) | 0 | 3.394049e-02 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.660595e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Kingsford Smith (NSW) | 0 | 3.991081e-02 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.600892e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Greenway (NSW) | 0 | 3.124287e-02 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.687571e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Griffith (QLD) | 0 | 2.964141e-03 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.970359e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Jagajaga (VIC) | 0 | 1.087499e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 8.912501e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Wakefield (SA) | 0 | 1.473151e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 8.526849e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Melbourne Ports (VIC) | 0 | 7.803866e-02 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.219613e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Brand (WA) | 0 | 8.624619e-03 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.913754e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Oxley (QLD) | 0 | 1.151779e-03 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.988482e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Isaacs (VIC) | 0 | 6.307030e-02 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.369297e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Adelaide (SA) | 0 | 1.019995e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 8.980005e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Barton (NSW) | 0 | 8.624619e-03 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.913754e-01 | 0.000000 |
| McMahon (NSW) | 0 | 7.035892e-03 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.929641e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Rankin (QLD) | 0 | 3.149654e-04 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.996850e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Ballarat (VIC) | 0 | 2.872508e-02 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.712749e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Franklin (TAS) | 0 | 4.612869e-03 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.953871e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Makin (SA) | 0 | 4.670792e-02 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.532921e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Blair (QLD) | 0 | 1.569357e-04 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.998431e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Fremantle (WA) | 0 | 1.302025e-03 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.986980e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Hunter (NSW) | 0 | 2.099358e-03 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.979006e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Werriwa (NSW) | 0 | 7.912060e-04 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.992088e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Whitlam (NSW) | 0 | 4.710375e-04 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.995290e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Hotham (VIC) | 0 | 2.645521e-03 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.973545e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Canberra (ACT) | 0 | 2.747123e-04 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.997253e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Shortland (NSW) | 0 | 2.392942e-04 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.997607e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Corio (VIC) | 0 | 1.469993e-03 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.985300e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Watson (NSW) | 0 | 2.582655e-05 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.999742e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Holt (VIC) | 0 | 2.747123e-04 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.997253e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Newcastle (NSW) | 0 | 1.151929e-05 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.999885e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Kingston (SA) | 0 | 3.606509e-04 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.996393e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Chifley (NSW) | 0 | 8.390792e-07 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.999992e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Blaxland (NSW) | 0 | 4.795001e-07 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.999995e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Cunningham (NSW) | 0 | 3.968561e-07 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.999996e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Maribyrnong (VIC) | 0 | 8.263808e-06 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.999917e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Lalor (VIC) | 0 | 2.076509e-06 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.999979e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Fenner (ACT) | 0 | 4.537991e-08 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Fowler (NSW) | 0 | 1.605726e-08 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Sydney (NSW) | 0 | 1.605726e-08 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Calwell (VIC) | 0 | 8.329858e-08 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.999999e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Port Adelaide (SA) | 0 | 3.280209e-07 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 9.999997e-01 | 0.000000 |
| Scullin (VIC) | 0 | 3.006928e-08 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Gorton (VIC) | 0 | 7.331915e-10 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Gellibrand (VIC) | 0 | 2.892747e-10 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Grayndler (NSW) | 0 | 6.064071e-15 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Wills (VIC) | 0 | 3.383526e-15 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Melbourne (VIC) | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 1.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Denison (TAS) | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 1.000000 | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Indi (VIC) | 0 | 1.843175e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.815683 | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Kennedy (QLD) | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 1 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Fairfax (QLD) | 0 | 1.000000e+00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Cowper (NSW) | 0 | 6.626480e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.337352 | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| New England (NSW) | 0 | 7.392168e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.260783 | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000 |
| Barker (SA) | 0 | 6.896515e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.310349 |
| Boothby (SA) | 0 | 7.748514e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.225149 |
| Grey (SA) | 0 | 6.626690e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.337331 |
| Mayo (SA) | 0 | 3.749866e-01 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.625013 |
| Batman (VIC) | 0 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.419907 | 0.000000 | 0 | 5.800931e-01 | 0.000000 |
PS: if these results are bogus and riddled with human error, please let me know so that I can fix them. Thank you.
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