The two-party swings are now posting as follows (in percentage points) ...
Swing State Alabama 5.662658 Alaska 0.818982 Arizona -5.405065 Arkansas 3.274192 California -5.570583 Colorado 0.528426 Connecticut 3.772887 Delaware 7.196230 District of Columbia -3.141525 Florida 2.082540 Georgia -2.640453 Hawaii 10.522691 Idaho 0.075144 Illinois 0.199778 Indiana 8.825116 Iowa 15.247820 Kansas -0.561142 Kentucky 7.168176 Louisiana 2.432006 Maine 12.587298 Maryland 0.833312 Massachusetts -4.135420 Michigan 9.736549 Minnesota 6.174261 Mississippi 7.042194 Missouri 9.761118 Montana 6.889904 Nebraska 4.276905 Nevada 4.327039 New Hampshire 5.212831 New Jersey 4.152788 New Mexico 1.898950 New York 6.955795 North Carolina 1.695493 North Dakota 16.097549 Ohio 11.430740 Oklahoma 2.846545 Oregon 1.103355 Pennsylvania 6.471411 Rhode Island 12.127632 South Carolina 3.792815 South Dakota 11.772774 Tennessee 5.791648 Texas -6.648189 Utah -30.227091 Vermont 9.189564 Virginia -1.450352 Washington -1.025402 West Virginia 15.004805 Wisconsin 7.751092 Wyoming 5.471542
The change in the raw vote counts by party between 2012 and 2016 are as follows:
These are expressed as percentage changes on the 2012 base year, Because there were no other party votes in Oklahoma in 2012, it records an infinite change.
Delta_turnout Delta_Rep Delta_Dem Delta_Other State Alabama 1.910248 4.658399 -8.796324 224.990096 Alaska -11.234463 -16.700066 -20.354697 141.930344 Arizona 10.195707 1.081340 12.628556 193.732301 Arkansas 5.355466 5.411706 -3.905844 137.748490 California -12.143508 -22.101411 -10.144488 77.727811 Colorado 7.426883 0.923017 0.497241 273.206721 Connecticut 5.345566 6.008672 -1.035234 287.374243 Delaware 6.684609 11.870030 -2.877766 256.398428 District of Columbia 5.958525 -40.493896 5.901075 195.783926 Florida 11.615576 10.867510 6.222609 297.072726 Georgia 4.705211 0.499065 5.867765 124.322340 Hawaii -1.350366 6.446308 -12.988411 372.423121 Idaho 5.401512 -2.528325 -10.528839 297.344211 Illinois 4.753142 -0.275195 0.833446 238.168018 Indiana 3.737928 9.365213 -10.209785 148.258804 Iowa -1.121048 9.560413 -20.634033 283.045591 Kansas -0.897513 -4.899907 -5.710285 174.477800 Kentucky 6.968557 10.646897 -7.438656 190.809197 Louisiana 1.753554 2.289063 -3.582441 115.051130 Maine 3.292296 13.793469 -12.165530 163.210532 Maryland -1.041027 -4.829046 -4.565800 165.506648 Massachusetts 2.012901 -8.867863 2.237895 219.212456 Michigan 1.297279 7.717884 -11.656618 301.184896 Minnesota 0.279953 0.206328 -11.542220 262.165629 Mississippi -9.565847 -4.637944 -17.887766 89.881403 Missouri 0.464235 6.969118 -13.801892 136.501140 Montana 2.072514 4.222030 -11.955073 155.323775 Nebraska 2.677437 3.286084 -7.913440 171.538819 Nevada 10.648348 10.300992 1.200663 269.996997 New Hampshire 4.639845 4.808771 -5.703253 332.376229 New Jersey 5.278954 7.086192 -0.970606 237.207575 New Mexico 1.093579 -5.565118 -7.912408 184.228106 New York 0.445977 6.002740 -7.498578 207.735610 North Carolina 4.362881 3.296343 -0.408329 230.832715 North Dakota 6.736262 15.216063 -24.889647 250.814569 Ohio -3.771069 4.153658 -18.060840 185.997367 Oklahoma 8.848788 6.485962 -5.224249 inf Oregon 10.541226 2.595684 2.118007 229.820298 Pennsylvania 4.886111 9.001266 -4.489789 205.165348 Rhode Island 3.504324 14.493906 -10.338355 237.347295 South Carolina 7.072335 7.814528 -1.220406 247.749887 South Dakota 1.712959 8.114999 -19.027296 204.971834 Tennessee 1.214797 4.023169 -9.526298 165.279282 Texas 11.669525 2.483871 16.933071 213.531104 Utah 6.737450 -33.180934 20.132797 927.379781 Vermont 5.271476 2.881400 -10.372467 459.295526 Virginia 3.327627 -2.912393 0.489548 285.448983 Washington 2.659095 -7.181619 -2.689820 223.803708 West Virginia 5.995962 15.750081 -21.770352 162.957703 Wisconsin -2.970212 -0.066621 -14.684775 374.432034 Wyoming 2.725437 2.022087 -19.214560 188.857370
A quick acknowledgement: I sourced the data for this analysis from http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/.
Update
In addition to the change in the raw vote count (above), we can look at the change in vote share for Democrats, Others and Republicans in percentage points in 2016 compared with 2012. In these charts I have not reported Utah (which was a special case). We can see that the Democrat vote share was mostly down across the country, the Other vote share was up and it's an up-and-down mixed-bag for the Republicans.
Dem_2012_ppt Rep_2012_ppt Other_2012_ppt State Alabama -4.029955 1.632702 2.397253 Alaska -4.193305 -3.374323 7.567629 Arizona 0.981314 -4.423750 3.442436 Arkansas -3.241861 0.032331 3.209530 California 1.368819 -4.201764 2.832944 Colorado -3.318534 -2.790108 6.108642 Connecticut -3.516540 0.256346 3.260194 Delaware -5.253016 1.943215 3.309801 District of Columbia -0.049292 -3.190817 3.240109 Florida -2.411126 -0.328586 2.739712 Georgia 0.503919 -2.136534 1.632615 Hawaii -8.322469 2.200222 6.122247 Idaho -4.896985 -4.821842 9.718827 Illinois -2.151515 -1.951737 4.103252 Indiana -5.893867 2.931249 2.962617 Iowa -10.259427 4.988393 5.271034 Kansas -1.845608 -2.406751 4.252359 Kentucky -5.088959 2.079217 3.009741 Louisiana -2.127898 0.304109 1.823789 Maine -8.420870 4.166428 4.254442 Maryland -2.207430 -1.374118 3.581547 Massachusetts 0.133802 -4.001618 3.867815 Michigan -6.911175 2.825374 4.085801 Minnesota -6.207269 -0.033008 6.240277 Mississippi -4.029578 3.012615 1.016963 Missouri -6.288028 3.473090 2.814938 Montana -5.725321 1.164583 4.560738 Nebraska -3.922406 0.354498 3.567908 Nevada -4.470427 -0.143387 4.613814 New Hampshire -5.137918 0.074912 5.063006 New Jersey -3.457540 0.695248 2.762292 New Mexico -4.720900 -2.821951 7.542851 New York -5.010221 1.945574 3.064648 North Carolina -2.210485 -0.514993 2.725478 North Dakota -11.464071 4.633479 6.830592 Ohio -7.510519 3.920221 3.590298 Oklahoma -4.296000 -1.449455 5.745455 Oregon -4.133026 -3.029671 7.162697 Pennsylvania -4.644232 1.827179 2.817052 Rhode Island -8.385632 3.741999 4.643633 South Carolina -3.414614 0.378201 3.036412 South Dakota -8.129091 3.643683 4.485409 Tennessee -4.142874 1.648774 2.494100 Texas 1.949190 -4.698999 2.749809 Utah 3.095627 -27.131464 24.035837 Vermont -9.892764 -0.703200 10.595965 Virginia -1.405104 -2.855456 4.260560 Washington -2.907304 -3.932706 6.840010 West Virginia -9.286462 5.718343 3.568118 Wisconsin -6.377981 1.373111 5.004869 Wyoming -5.941530 -0.469989 6.411519
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