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Saturday, November 19, 2016

Update on US Presidential election count

Last week some 128.5 million votes had been counted. The count is now at 132.3 million votes (and we are still counting). It continues to look like six states will flip from their 2012 party preference.


The two-party swings are now posting as follows (in percentage points) ...


                          Swing  
State                            
Alabama                5.662658  
Alaska                 0.818982  
Arizona               -5.405065  
Arkansas               3.274192  
California            -5.570583  
Colorado               0.528426  
Connecticut            3.772887  
Delaware               7.196230  
District of Columbia  -3.141525  
Florida                2.082540  
Georgia               -2.640453  
Hawaii                10.522691  
Idaho                  0.075144  
Illinois               0.199778  
Indiana                8.825116  
Iowa                  15.247820  
Kansas                -0.561142  
Kentucky               7.168176  
Louisiana              2.432006  
Maine                 12.587298  
Maryland               0.833312  
Massachusetts         -4.135420  
Michigan               9.736549  
Minnesota              6.174261  
Mississippi            7.042194  
Missouri               9.761118  
Montana                6.889904  
Nebraska               4.276905  
Nevada                 4.327039  
New Hampshire          5.212831  
New Jersey             4.152788  
New Mexico             1.898950  
New York               6.955795  
North Carolina         1.695493  
North Dakota          16.097549  
Ohio                  11.430740  
Oklahoma               2.846545  
Oregon                 1.103355  
Pennsylvania           6.471411  
Rhode Island          12.127632  
South Carolina         3.792815  
South Dakota          11.772774  
Tennessee              5.791648  
Texas                 -6.648189  
Utah                 -30.227091  
Vermont                9.189564  
Virginia              -1.450352  
Washington            -1.025402  
West Virginia         15.004805  
Wisconsin              7.751092  
Wyoming                5.471542   

The change in the raw vote counts by party between 2012 and 2016 are as follows:





These are expressed as percentage changes on the 2012 base year, Because there were no other party votes in Oklahoma in 2012, it records an infinite change.

                      Delta_turnout  Delta_Rep  Delta_Dem  Delta_Other
State                                                                    
Alabama                    1.910248   4.658399  -8.796324   224.990096   
Alaska                   -11.234463 -16.700066 -20.354697   141.930344   
Arizona                   10.195707   1.081340  12.628556   193.732301   
Arkansas                   5.355466   5.411706  -3.905844   137.748490   
California               -12.143508 -22.101411 -10.144488    77.727811   
Colorado                   7.426883   0.923017   0.497241   273.206721   
Connecticut                5.345566   6.008672  -1.035234   287.374243   
Delaware                   6.684609  11.870030  -2.877766   256.398428   
District of Columbia       5.958525 -40.493896   5.901075   195.783926   
Florida                   11.615576  10.867510   6.222609   297.072726   
Georgia                    4.705211   0.499065   5.867765   124.322340   
Hawaii                    -1.350366   6.446308 -12.988411   372.423121   
Idaho                      5.401512  -2.528325 -10.528839   297.344211   
Illinois                   4.753142  -0.275195   0.833446   238.168018   
Indiana                    3.737928   9.365213 -10.209785   148.258804   
Iowa                      -1.121048   9.560413 -20.634033   283.045591   
Kansas                    -0.897513  -4.899907  -5.710285   174.477800   
Kentucky                   6.968557  10.646897  -7.438656   190.809197   
Louisiana                  1.753554   2.289063  -3.582441   115.051130   
Maine                      3.292296  13.793469 -12.165530   163.210532   
Maryland                  -1.041027  -4.829046  -4.565800   165.506648   
Massachusetts              2.012901  -8.867863   2.237895   219.212456   
Michigan                   1.297279   7.717884 -11.656618   301.184896   
Minnesota                  0.279953   0.206328 -11.542220   262.165629   
Mississippi               -9.565847  -4.637944 -17.887766    89.881403   
Missouri                   0.464235   6.969118 -13.801892   136.501140   
Montana                    2.072514   4.222030 -11.955073   155.323775   
Nebraska                   2.677437   3.286084  -7.913440   171.538819   
Nevada                    10.648348  10.300992   1.200663   269.996997   
New Hampshire              4.639845   4.808771  -5.703253   332.376229   
New Jersey                 5.278954   7.086192  -0.970606   237.207575   
New Mexico                 1.093579  -5.565118  -7.912408   184.228106   
New York                   0.445977   6.002740  -7.498578   207.735610   
North Carolina             4.362881   3.296343  -0.408329   230.832715   
North Dakota               6.736262  15.216063 -24.889647   250.814569   
Ohio                      -3.771069   4.153658 -18.060840   185.997367   
Oklahoma                   8.848788   6.485962  -5.224249          inf   
Oregon                    10.541226   2.595684   2.118007   229.820298   
Pennsylvania               4.886111   9.001266  -4.489789   205.165348   
Rhode Island               3.504324  14.493906 -10.338355   237.347295   
South Carolina             7.072335   7.814528  -1.220406   247.749887   
South Dakota               1.712959   8.114999 -19.027296   204.971834   
Tennessee                  1.214797   4.023169  -9.526298   165.279282   
Texas                     11.669525   2.483871  16.933071   213.531104   
Utah                       6.737450 -33.180934  20.132797   927.379781   
Vermont                    5.271476   2.881400 -10.372467   459.295526   
Virginia                   3.327627  -2.912393   0.489548   285.448983   
Washington                 2.659095  -7.181619  -2.689820   223.803708   
West Virginia              5.995962  15.750081 -21.770352   162.957703   
Wisconsin                 -2.970212  -0.066621 -14.684775   374.432034   
Wyoming                    2.725437   2.022087 -19.214560   188.857370    

A quick acknowledgement: I sourced the data for this analysis from http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/.

Update

In addition to the change in the raw vote count (above), we can look at the change in vote share for Democrats, Others and Republicans in percentage points in 2016 compared with 2012. In these charts I have not reported Utah (which was a special case). We can see that the Democrat vote share was mostly down across the country, the Other vote share was up and it's an up-and-down mixed-bag for the Republicans.





                      Dem_2012_ppt  Rep_2012_ppt  Other_2012_ppt
State                                                           
Alabama                  -4.029955      1.632702        2.397253
Alaska                   -4.193305     -3.374323        7.567629
Arizona                   0.981314     -4.423750        3.442436
Arkansas                 -3.241861      0.032331        3.209530
California                1.368819     -4.201764        2.832944
Colorado                 -3.318534     -2.790108        6.108642
Connecticut              -3.516540      0.256346        3.260194
Delaware                 -5.253016      1.943215        3.309801
District of Columbia     -0.049292     -3.190817        3.240109
Florida                  -2.411126     -0.328586        2.739712
Georgia                   0.503919     -2.136534        1.632615
Hawaii                   -8.322469      2.200222        6.122247
Idaho                    -4.896985     -4.821842        9.718827
Illinois                 -2.151515     -1.951737        4.103252
Indiana                  -5.893867      2.931249        2.962617
Iowa                    -10.259427      4.988393        5.271034
Kansas                   -1.845608     -2.406751        4.252359
Kentucky                 -5.088959      2.079217        3.009741
Louisiana                -2.127898      0.304109        1.823789
Maine                    -8.420870      4.166428        4.254442
Maryland                 -2.207430     -1.374118        3.581547
Massachusetts             0.133802     -4.001618        3.867815
Michigan                 -6.911175      2.825374        4.085801
Minnesota                -6.207269     -0.033008        6.240277
Mississippi              -4.029578      3.012615        1.016963
Missouri                 -6.288028      3.473090        2.814938
Montana                  -5.725321      1.164583        4.560738
Nebraska                 -3.922406      0.354498        3.567908
Nevada                   -4.470427     -0.143387        4.613814
New Hampshire            -5.137918      0.074912        5.063006
New Jersey               -3.457540      0.695248        2.762292
New Mexico               -4.720900     -2.821951        7.542851
New York                 -5.010221      1.945574        3.064648
North Carolina           -2.210485     -0.514993        2.725478
North Dakota            -11.464071      4.633479        6.830592
Ohio                     -7.510519      3.920221        3.590298
Oklahoma                 -4.296000     -1.449455        5.745455
Oregon                   -4.133026     -3.029671        7.162697
Pennsylvania             -4.644232      1.827179        2.817052
Rhode Island             -8.385632      3.741999        4.643633
South Carolina           -3.414614      0.378201        3.036412
South Dakota             -8.129091      3.643683        4.485409
Tennessee                -4.142874      1.648774        2.494100
Texas                     1.949190     -4.698999        2.749809
Utah                      3.095627    -27.131464       24.035837
Vermont                  -9.892764     -0.703200       10.595965
Virginia                 -1.405104     -2.855456        4.260560
Washington               -2.907304     -3.932706        6.840010
West Virginia            -9.286462      5.718343        3.568118
Wisconsin                -6.377981      1.373111        5.004869
Wyoming                  -5.941530     -0.469989        6.411519  

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