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Sunday, April 21, 2019

Election outcome prediction markets

Interestingly, the odds for the Coalition have improved slightly since the election was called.


This morning they stand as follows.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2019-04-21 BetEasy 4.5 1.20 21.05
2019-04-21 Ladbrokes 3.8 1.23 24.45
2019-04-21 Sportsbet 4.0 1.23 23.52

The odds charts follow.



And the implied Coalition win probabilities are as follows.


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