First Roy Morgan Poll for 2022

Yesterday Roy Morgan (RM) published its first poll for 2022, with the poll in the field between 4 and 16 January. By its own reckoning RM has the current two party preferred (2pp) voting intention at 44 to 56 per cent in Labor's favor. Using the preference flows from the 2019 election and RM's primary vote estimates, I calculate the 2pp voting intention at 45.8 to 54.2 per cent. If this was repeated at an election it would see a landslide win for Labor.

The exponentially weighted polling averages are as follows:

The Bayesian aggregation of the 2pp polling trend across all pollsters is as follows:

The primary vote estimates, follow. RM is more favourable to the Greens than other pollsters, and it sees a high Other Party vote. 

The Bayesian aggregation of relative pollster biases and the primary votes follow.