Yesterday's Roy Morgan poll, which was in the field between 17 and 30 January, had Labor on 56.5 and the Coalition on 43.5 per cent in two-party preferred terms. This equates to a landslide win for Labor.
When I apply the preference flows at the 2019 election, I get an a two-party preferred estimate of 54.9 to 45.1 in Labor's favour. This is still a landslide win fr Labor.
The Bayesian aggregation, adjusting for house effects, tells much the same story. Even this more cautious assessment of the 2pp vote share for the Coalition would see a Labor landslide win.
The polling feature I am interested in is the disagreements in the primary vote polling between the polling firms. While the pollsters are in reasonably close agreement on the Greens and the Coalition, they disagree substantially in terms of Labor's primary vote and the primary vote for other parties. Essential and Resolve Strategic are typically more than 5 percentage points apart when it comes to Labor and the other parties.
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