I have started tracking the betting market at sportsbet.com.au for the next Australian Federal Election. The specific question I am tracking is the party which will supply the Prime Minister following the next election. I plain to capture a snapshot of the relevant odds daily, sometime around midday. I will not be reporting on the "Any other party" odds, as I consider the results to be skewed by the long-shot bias.
As I have only been tracking this for a day, the charts at this stage are not very interesting.
Nonetheless, I was a little surprised at the 60/40 probabilities. My prior, before looking at the odds, was that it is very unusual for a first term government to lose their first election as a government.
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