Day 34 - 2025 Federal Election

Polls

This morning we had a new poll from Resolve Strategic, with Labor in front - 53/47. I am starting to think little about herding or other explanations for under-dispersion in the polling data. Of the 15 polls taken since 4 April, most are in the 52-53 per cent range for Labor. The outliers to this trend come from Roy Morgan, which has been relatively favourable for Labor in recent months, and Freshwater Strategy, which has not been so favourable.

I will do some more thinking on this for tomorrow's report. In the mean time, the aggregation is 52.2 in Labor's favour. 

Betting markets

This morning, betting markets have the Labor win probability at 86 per cent.