Update

This morning the Murdoch tabloids have a new poll from Galaxy (the first since the Budget) at 51-49 in the Coalition's favour. This is a three point movement in the Coalition's favour since the previous Galaxy poll. The impact of this second poll on the post-Abbott aggregation is minimal: 50.2 to 49.8 per cent in the Coalition's favour.

The betting market appears to have settled.

	House	Coalition Odds ($)	Labor Odds ($)	Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-09-18	Betfair	1.35	3.14	69.933185
2015-09-18	CrownBet	1.40	2.75	66.265060
2015-09-18	Ladbrokes	1.40	2.80	66.666667
2015-09-18	Luxbet	1.40	2.85	67.058824
2015-09-18	Sportsbet	1.40	3.00	68.181818
2015-09-18	TABtouch	1.26	3.75	74.850299
2015-09-18	William Hill	1.27	3.75	74.701195