Updates

Yesterday's Morgan poll was unchanged on the previous Morgan poll: 55-45 to the Coalition with preferences flowing as they did at the previous election. The aggregation now stands at 54.8 for the Coalition to 45.2 for Labor.

Those of you with a keen eye will have noticed a slight change to the anchored models. Previously they were coded for three discontinuities. This has now been generalised in the code to two or more discontinuities. Also, I have removed the discontinuity I was applying for Shorten's promotion to the Leader of the Opposition. 

The betting market has moved a touch in Malcolm Turnbull's direction.

	House	Coalition Odds ($)	Labor Odds ($)	Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-12-01	Betfair	1.15	6.89	85.696517
2015-12-01	CrownBet	1.13	6.00	84.151473
2015-12-01	Ladbrokes	1.15	5.00	81.300813
2015-12-01	Luxbet	1.07	7.50	87.514586
2015-12-01	Sportsbet	1.10	6.00	84.507042
2015-12-01	TABtouch	1.09	7.00	86.526576
2015-12-01	William Hill	1.08	7.50	87.412587