| House | Coalition Odds ($) | Labor Odds ($) | Coalition Win Probability (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-13 | Betfair | 1.35 | 3.42 | 71.70 |
| 2016-05-13 | CrownBet | 1.33 | 3.25 | 70.96 |
| 2016-05-13 | Ladbrokes | 1.33 | 3.25 | 70.96 |
| 2016-05-13 | Luxbet | 1.27 | 3.65 | 74.19 |
| 2016-05-13 | Sportsbet | 1.33 | 3.25 | 70.96 |
| 2016-05-13 | TABtouch | 1.30 | 3.15 | 70.79 |
| 2016-05-13 | William Hill | 1.30 | 3.30 | 71.74 |
And a quick look at the implied Coalition win probabilities from each betting house over the week.
| % | Fr 6-May | Sa 7-May | Su 8-May | Mo 9-May | Tu 10-May | We 11-May | Th 12-May | Fr 13-May |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 70.54 | 70.22 | 69.58 | 69.16 | 72.65 | 72.44 | 71.85 | 71.70 |
| CrownBet | 70.48 | 70.48 | 70.48 | 72.03 | 72.03 | 72.03 | 70.96 | 70.96 |
| Ladbrokes | 70.96 | 70.96 | 68.81 | 68.81 | 68.81 | 70.96 | 70.96 | 70.96 |
| Luxbet | 71.58 | 71.58 | 71.58 | 71.58 | 71.58 | 74.19 | 74.19 | 74.19 |
| Sportsbet | 70.96 | 70.96 | 70.96 | 70.96 | 70.96 | 70.96 | 70.96 | 70.96 |
| TABtouch | 69.82 | 69.82 | 72.04 | 72.04 | 73.25 | 73.80 | 73.80 | 70.79 |
| William Hill | 70.81 | 70.81 | 72.92 | 72.92 | 74.07 | 74.60 | 74.60 | 71.74 |
| Average | 70.74 | 70.69 | 70.91 | 71.07 | 71.91 | 72.71 | 72.47 | 71.61 |
The usual charts come next.
Moving to the Sportsbet individual seats market: in the next table we can see the House of Representative outcome if the favourite won each seat.
| Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 68 | 0 |
We can look at the close seats (where the favourite is on a win probability of less than 60 per cent). These are the seats to watch. Some of these seats have no-one on a probability of 50 per cent or more.
| Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond (NSW) | 3.34 | 19.32 | 17.39 | - | - | 59.95 | - |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | 3.25 | 33.85 | 3.25 | - | - | 48.36 | 11.28 |
| Solomon (NT) | 3.33 | 34.68 | 3.33 | 0.86 | - | 57.80 | - |
| Dobell (NSW) | 2.61 | 35.54 | 2.61 | - | - | 59.23 | - |
| Burt (WA) | 2.68 | 40.45 | - | - | - | 56.88 | - |
| Lyons (TAS) | 5.44 | 41.46 | 3.35 | - | - | 49.75 | - |
| Swan (WA) | 3.25 | 42.29 | 5.29 | - | - | 49.17 | - |
| Deakin (VIC) | 3.27 | 42.50 | 5.67 | - | - | 48.57 | - |
| Hasluck (WA) | 3.28 | 42.58 | 4.06 | - | - | 50.09 | - |
| |Macarthur (NSW) | 3.34 | 44.51 | 2.55 | - | - | 49.60 | - |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | 1.70 | 46.96 | 1.70 | - | - | 49.64 | - |
| Corangamite (VIC) | 3.32 | 49.37 | 4.11 | - | - | 43.20 | - |
| Reid (NSW) | 3.35 | 49.76 | 3.35 | - | - | 43.54 | - |
| Page (NSW) | 3.39 | 50.32 | 8.01 | - | - | 38.29 | - |
| Robertson (NSW) | 2.35 | 50.81 | 11.40 | - | - | 35.45 | - |
| |Cowan (WA) | 3.40 | 52.98 | 3.40 | - | - | 40.22 | - |
| Brisbane (QLD) | 3.32 | 53.31 | 4.11 | - | - | 39.26 | - |
| La Trobe (Vic) | 3.33 | 54.09 | 4.12 | - | - | 38.46 | - |
| Macquarie (NSW) | 3.21 | 55.64 | 3.21 | - | - | 37.94 | - |
| |Lindsay (NSW) | 3.39 | 55.73 | 4.19 | - | - | 36.69 | - |
| Bonner (QLD) | 3.26 | 56.58 | 3.26 | - | - | 36.90 | - |
| Dunkley (VIC) | 2.20 | 57.21 | 2.92 | - | - | 37.67 | - |
| Gilmore (NSW) | 3.34 | 57.83 | 4.13 | - | - | 34.70 | - |
| Banks (NSW) | 3.34 | 57.83 | 4.13 | - | - | 34.70 | - |
| Forde (QLD) | 3.36 | 58.30 | 3.36 | - | - | 34.98 | - |
| New England (NSW) | 3.92 | 58.80 | 3.43 | 29.93 | - | 3.92 | - |
| Braddon (TAS) | 4.10 | 59.44 | 3.31 | - | - | 33.15 | - |
| Leichhardt (QLD) | 6.95 | 59.54 | 3.21 | - | - | 30.31 | - |
| Stirling (WA) | 3.31 | 59.68 | 3.31 | - | - | 33.70 | - |
We can use the betting market to look at those seats where the Coalition members are in competition. In Murray, the Nationals are the punters choice. In Indi its neither Coalition member, with punters favouring an independent.
| % | Any Other | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Liberal | National | Nick Xenophon Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murray (VIC) | 5.00 | 3.08 | - | - | 3.81 | 38.10 | 50.01 | - |
| Indi (VIC) | 3.07 | 1.56 | 63.8 | - | 4.98 | 10.63 | 15.95 | - |
And we can use the betting market to see where seats might be changing sides at the next election. Noting that the 2013 outcomes in the next table were sourced from Antony Green.
| Seat | TPP 2013 | TCP 2013 | 2013 Outcome | 2016 Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burt (WA) | LIB 6.1% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Capricornia (QLD) | LNP 0.8% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Deakin (VIC) | LIB 3.2% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | LIB 2.9% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Fairfax (QLD) | - | PUP 0.03% v LNP | Palmer United | Coalition |
| Hasluck (WA) | LIB 6.0% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | LIB 1.9% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Lyons (TAS) | LIB 1.2% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Macarthur (NSW) | LIB 3.3% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Petrie (QLD) | LNP 0.5% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Solomon (NT) | CLP 1.4% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Swan (WA) | LIB 7.3% | - | Coalition | Labor |
No comments:
Post a Comment