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Sunday, May 15, 2016

Individual seat betting markets

We will start with the headline result: the Coalition is the favourite in 78 compared with Labor on 68 seats.


In the next table is a complete list of odds from Sportsbet as at 8am this morning. I have crunched things a little to get this table - corrected spelling errors, incorrect names of seats, grouped independents, etc. The table is in alphabetical order by seat name.

Electorate 1 Territory Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Liberal National Nick Xenophon Team
Adelaide (SA) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.11 - - 7.0
Aston (VIC) - 34.0 1.05 26.00 - - 6.00 - - -
Ballarat (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Banks (NSW) - 26.0 1.75 21.00 - - 2.00 - - -
Barker (SA) - 26.0 1.05 26.00 - - 26.00 - - 7.0
Barton (NSW) - 26.0 8.50 26.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Bass (TAS) - 26.0 1.25 26.00 - - 3.75 - - -
Batman (VIC) - 26.0 26.00 3.00 - - 1.35 - - -
Bendigo (VIC) - 26.0 6.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Bennelong (NSW) - 26.0 1.10 26.00 - - 6.00 - - -
Berowra (NSW) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Blair (QLD) - 26.0 8.50 26.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Blaxland (NSW) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Bonner (QLD) - 26.0 1.50 26.00 - - 2.30 - - -
Boothby (SA) - 26.0 1.20 26.00 - - 7.50 - - 6.0
Bowman (QLD) - 17.0 1.15 26.00 - - 5.50 - - -
Braddon (TAS) - 21.0 1.45 26.00 - - 2.60 - - -
Bradfield (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Brand (WA) - 26.0 13.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Brisbane (QLD) - 26.0 1.62 21.00 - - 2.20 - - -
Bruce (VIC) - 26.0 5.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Burt (WA) - 34.0 2.25 - - - 1.60 - - -
Calare (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Calwell (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Canberra (ACT) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Canning (WA) - 26.0 1.10 26.00 - - 6.00 - - -
Capricornia (QLD) - 26.0 3.00 26.00 - - 1.35 - - -
Casey (VIC) - 26.0 1.17 26.00 - - 4.50 - - -
Chifley (NSW) - 21.0 16.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Chisholm (VIC) - 26.0 6.50 21.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Cook (NSW) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Corangamite (VIC) - 26.0 1.75 21.00 - - 2.00 - - -
Corio (VIC) - 16.0 16.00 16.00 - - 1.02 - - -
Cowan (WA) - 26.0 1.67 26.00 - - 2.20 - - -
Cowper (NSW) - 11.0 1.01 26.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Cunningham (NSW) - 13.0 21.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Curtin (WA) - 26.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Dawson (QLD) - 26.0 1.20 26.00 - - 4.00 - - -
Deakin (VIC) - 26.0 2.00 15.00 - - 1.75 - - -
Denison (TAS) - 26.0 21.00 21.00 1.10 - 6.00 - - -
Dickson (QLD) - 26.0 1.35 26.00 - - 3.00 - - -
Dobell (NSW) - 34.0 2.50 34.00 - - 1.50 - - -
Dunkley (VIC) - 41.0 1.58 31.00 - - 2.40 - - -
Durack (WA) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Eden Monaro (NSW) - 51.0 1.85 51.00 - - 1.75 - - -
Fadden (QLD) - 16.0 1.01 26.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Fairfax (QLD) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Farrer (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 21.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Fenner (ACT) - 21.0 16.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Fisher (QLD) - 17.0 1.10 21.00 - - 7.50 - - -
Flinders (VIC) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Flynn (QLD) - 16.0 1.30 34.00 - - 3.30 - - -
Forde (QLD) - 26.0 1.50 26.00 - - 2.50 - - -
Forrest (WA) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Fowler (NSW) - 16.0 21.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Franklin (TAS) - 26.0 8.00 11.00 - - 1.07 - - -
Fremantle (WA) - 26.0 13.00 4.20 - - 1.20 - - -
Gelibrand (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 12.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Gilmore (NSW) - 26.0 1.50 21.00 - - 2.50 - - -
Gippsland (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Goldstein (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 34.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Gorton (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 16.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Grayndler (NSW) - 26.0 17.00 3.35 - - 1.30 - - -
Greenway (NSW) - 26.0 5.00 26.00 - - 1.12 - - -
Grey (SA) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Griffith (QLD) - 34.0 6.00 23.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Groom (QLD) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - 21.0
Hasluck (WA) - 26.0 2.00 21.00 - - 1.70 - - -
Herbert (QLD) - 21.0 1.30 26.00 - - 3.50 - - -
Higgins (VIC) - 26.0 1.15 7.50 - - 16.00 - - 11.0
Hindmarsh (SA) - 26.0 2.50 26.00 - - 1.75 - - 7.5
Hinkler (QLD) - 15.0 1.15 26.00 - - 5.00 - - -
Holt (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Hotham (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Hughes (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Hume (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 15.00 - - -
Hunter(NSW) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Indi (VIC) - 26.0 - 51.00 1.25 - 16.00 7.5 5.0 -
Isaacs (VIC) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Jagajaga (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Kennedy (QLD) - 26.0 4.25 26.00 - 1.2 21.00 - - -
Kingsford Smith (NSW) - 26.0 8.50 11.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Kingston (SA) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - 8.0
Kooyong (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
La Trobe (Vic) - 26.0 1.60 21.00 - - 2.25 - - -
Lalor (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Leichhardt (QLD) - 12.0 1.35 26.00 - - 3.00 - - -
Lilley (QLD) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Lindsay (NSW) - 26.0 1.58 21.00 - - 2.40 - - -
Lingiari (NT) 51.0 26.0 3.00 21.00 - - 1.30 - - -
Longman (QLD) - 26.0 1.20 26.00 - - 4.00 - - -
Lyne (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - -
Lyons (TAS) - 16.0 2.10 26.00 - - 1.75 - - -
Macarthur (NSW) - 26.0 2.00 34.00 - - 1.75 - - -
Mackellar (NSW) - - 1.01 26.00 12.00 - 21.00 - - -
Macquarie (NSW) - 26.0 1.50 26.00 - - 2.20 - - -
Makin (SA) - 26.0 16.00 26.00 - - 1.08 - - 7.0
Mallee (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Maranoa (QLD) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Maribyrnong (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Mayo (SA) - 21.0 1.10 31.00 - - 31.00 - - 5.0
McEwen (VIC) - 26.0 3.40 21.00 - - 1.30 - - -
McMahon (NSW) - 26.0 11.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
McMillan (VIC) - 21.0 1.02 26.00 - - 11.00 - - -
McPherson (QLD) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Melbourne (VIC) - 26.0 21.00 1.05 - - 9.00 - - -
Melbourne Ports (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 5.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Menzies (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 11.00 - 26.00 - - -
Mitchell (NSW) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Moncrieff (QLD) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Moore (WA) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Moreton (QLD) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Murray (VIC) - 16.0 - 26.00 - - 21.00 2.1 1.6 -
New England (NSW) - 21.0 1.40 24.00 2.75 - 21.00 - - -
Newcastle (NSW) - 17.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.04 - - -
North Sydney (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 21.00 - - 16.00 - - -
O'Connor (WA) - 16.0 1.01 26.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Oxley (QLD) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Page (NSW) - 26.0 1.75 11.00 - - 2.30 - - -
Parkes (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - -
Parramatta (NSW) - 26.0 5.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Paterson (NSW) - 17.0 3.75 26.00 - - 1.25 - - -
Pearce (WA) - 26.0 1.20 21.00 - - 4.20 - - -
Perth (WA) - 51.0 8.00 21.00 - - 1.03 - - -
Petrie (QLD) - 26.0 3.00 41.00 - - 1.35 - - -
Port Adelaide (SA) - 26.0 16.00 16.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Rankin (QLD) - 21.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Reid (NSW) - 26.0 1.75 26.00 - - 2.00 - - -
Richmond (NSW) - 26.0 4.50 5.00 - - 1.45 - - -
Riverina (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Robertson (NSW) - 34.0 1.57 7.00 - - 2.25 - - -
Ryan (QLD) - 26.0 1.10 16.00 - - 6.00 - - -
Scullin (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 8.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Shortland (NSW) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Solomon (NT) - 26.0 2.50 26.00 101.00 - 1.50 - - -
Stirling (WA) - 26.0 1.44 26.00 - - 2.55 - - -
Sturt (SA) - - 1.15 26.00 - - 7.00 - - 5.0
Swan (WA) - 26.0 2.00 16.00 - - 1.72 - - -
Sydney (NSW) - 26.0 21.00 5.00 - - 1.17 - - -
Tangney (WA) - - 1.01 21.00 12.00 - 26.00 - - -
Wakefield (SA) - 26.0 16.00 26.00 - - 1.08 - - 6.0
Wannon (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Warringah (NSW) - 9.0 1.06 26.00 - - 21.00 - - 8.0
Watson (NSW) - 26.0 11.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Wentworth (NSW) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Werriwa (NSW) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Whitlam (NSW) - 16.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Wide Bay (QLD) - 15.0 1.07 26.00 - - 7.00 - - -
Wills (VIC) - 41.0 31.00 4.50 - - 1.16 - - -
Wright (QLD) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 13.00 - - -

In the next table, I look at the implied win probabilities for the candidates in each seat. This table is sorted by Coalition win probability (expressed as a percentage). I have further collated Groups in this table.

Electorate Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team
Wills (VIC) 2.14 2.83 19.48 - - 75.56 -
Batman (VIC) 3.34 3.34 28.96 - - 64.36 -
Denison (TAS) 3.18 3.94 3.94 75.17 - 13.78 -
Cunningham (NSW) 6.62 4.10 4.10 - - 85.19 -
Melbourne (VIC) 3.35 4.14 82.85 - - 9.67 -
Fowler (NSW) 5.45 4.15 4.15 - - 86.26 -
Sydney (NSW) 3.37 4.17 17.53 - - 74.92 -
Grayndler (NSW) 3.30 5.05 25.62 - - 66.03 -
Wakefield (SA) 3.12 5.07 3.12 - - 75.16 13.53
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 3.18 5.17 16.53 - - 75.13 -
Makin (SA) 3.18 5.17 3.18 - - 76.64 11.82
Scullin (VIC) 3.26 5.30 10.61 - - 80.82 -
Gelibrand (VIC) 3.28 5.32 7.10 - - 84.31 -
Corio (VIC) 5.35 5.35 5.35 - - 83.95 -
Port Adelaide (SA) 3.33 5.42 5.42 - - 85.83 -
Gorton (VIC) 3.33 5.42 5.42 - - 85.83 -
Chifley (NSW) 4.15 5.45 4.15 - - 86.26 -
Fenner (ACT) 4.15 5.45 4.15 - - 86.26 -
Fremantle (WA) 3.24 6.48 20.06 - - 70.22 -
Brand (WA) 3.34 6.67 4.13 - - 85.86 -
Adelaide (SA) 3.17 6.87 3.93 - - 74.26 11.78
Kingston (SA) 3.22 6.98 3.22 - - 76.12 10.47
Whitlam (NSW) 5.32 7.10 3.28 - - 84.31 -
Oxley (QLD) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 -
Ballarat (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 -
Jagajaga (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 -
Holt (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 -
Rankin (QLD) 4.11 7.19 3.32 - - 85.39 -
Hotham (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 -
Shortland (NSW) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 -
Newcastle (NSW) 5.11 7.24 4.14 - - 83.52 -
Hunter(NSW) 3.34 7.24 3.34 - - 86.07 -
Blaxland (NSW) 3.34 7.24 3.34 - - 86.07 -
Canberra (ACT) 3.34 7.24 3.34 - - 86.07 -
Maribyrnong (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 -
Lalor (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 -
Calwell (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 -
Werriwa (NSW) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 -
McMahon (NSW) 3.32 7.85 3.32 - - 85.51 -
Watson (NSW) 3.32 7.85 3.32 - - 85.51 -
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 3.21 9.81 7.58 - - 79.40 -
Isaacs (VIC) 3.33 10.18 4.12 - - 82.38 -
Moreton (QLD) 3.33 10.18 4.12 - - 82.38 -
Lilley (QLD) 3.33 10.18 4.12 - - 82.38 -
Blair (QLD) 3.35 10.26 3.35 - - 83.04 -
Barton (NSW) 3.35 10.26 3.35 - - 83.04 -
Franklin (TAS) 3.23 10.51 7.65 - - 78.61 -
Perth (WA) 1.69 10.75 4.09 - - 83.47 -
Chisholm (VIC) 3.35 13.39 4.14 - - 79.12 -
Bendigo (VIC) 3.34 14.46 3.34 - - 78.87 -
Griffith (QLD) 2.56 14.51 3.79 - - 79.14 -
Parramatta (NSW) 3.24 16.86 3.24 - - 76.65 -
Bruce (VIC) 3.24 16.86 3.24 - - 76.65 -
Greenway (NSW) 3.29 17.10 3.29 - - 76.33 -
Richmond (NSW) 3.34 19.32 17.39 - - 59.95 -
Kennedy (QLD) 3.22 19.72 3.22 - 69.84 3.99 -
Paterson (NSW) 5.05 22.91 3.30 - - 68.73 -
McEwen (VIC) 3.35 25.59 4.14 - - 66.92 -
Indi (VIC) 3.07 26.58 1.56 63.80 - 4.98 -
Lingiari (NT) 4.81 27.59 3.94 - - 63.66 -
Capricornia (QLD) 3.34 28.96 3.34 - - 64.36 -
Petrie (QLD) 3.38 29.32 2.15 - - 65.15 -
Hindmarsh (SA) 3.25 33.85 3.25 - - 48.36 11.28
Solomon (NT) 3.33 34.68 3.33 0.86 - 57.80 -
Dobell (NSW) 2.61 35.54 2.61 - - 59.23 -
Burt (WA) 2.68 40.45 - - - 56.88 -
Lyons (TAS) 5.44 41.46 3.35 - - 49.75 -
Swan (WA) 3.25 42.29 5.29 - - 49.17 -
Deakin (VIC) 3.27 42.50 5.67 - - 48.57 -
Hasluck (WA) 3.28 42.58 4.06 - - 50.09 -
Macarthur (NSW) 3.38 43.89 2.58 - - 50.16 -
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.70 46.96 1.70 - - 49.64 -
Banks (NSW) 3.32 49.37 4.11 - - 43.20 -
Corangamite (VIC) 3.32 49.37 4.11 - - 43.20 -
Reid (NSW) 3.35 49.76 3.35 - - 43.54 -
Page (NSW) 3.39 50.32 8.01 - - 38.29 -
Robertson (NSW) 2.35 50.81 11.40 - - 35.45 -
Cowan (WA) 3.40 52.98 3.40 - - 40.22 -
Brisbane (QLD) 3.32 53.31 4.11 - - 39.26 -
La Trobe (Vic) 3.33 54.09 4.12 - - 38.46 -
Macquarie (NSW) 3.21 55.64 3.21 - - 37.94 -
Lindsay (NSW) 3.39 55.73 4.19 - - 36.69 -
Bonner (QLD) 3.26 56.58 3.26 - - 36.90 -
Dunkley (VIC) 2.20 57.21 2.92 - - 37.67 -
Gilmore (NSW) 3.34 57.83 4.13 - - 34.70 -
Forde (QLD) 3.36 58.30 3.36 - - 34.98 -
New England (NSW) 3.92 58.80 3.43 29.93 - 3.92 -
Braddon (TAS) 4.10 59.44 3.31 - - 33.15 -
Stirling (WA) 3.31 59.68 3.31 - - 33.70 -
Leichhardt (QLD) 6.97 61.94 3.22 - - 27.87 -
Dickson (QLD) 3.34 64.36 3.34 - - 28.96 -
Flynn (QLD) 5.37 66.08 2.53 - - 26.03 -
Herbert (QLD) 4.17 67.42 3.37 - - 25.04 -
Boothby (SA) 3.18 68.86 3.18 - - 11.02 13.77
Sturt (SA) - 69.52 3.07 - - 11.42 15.99
Bass (TAS) 3.36 69.96 3.36 - - 23.32 -
Longman (QLD) 3.31 71.82 3.31 - - 21.55 -
Dawson (QLD) 3.31 71.82 3.31 - - 21.55 -
Pearce (WA) 3.32 71.99 4.11 - - 20.57 -
Higgins (VIC) 3.22 72.78 11.16 - - 5.23 7.61
Hinkler (QLD) 5.68 74.02 3.27 - - 17.03 -
Casey (VIC) 3.33 74.07 3.33 - - 19.26 -
Mayo (SA) 3.90 74.44 2.64 - - 2.64 16.38
Warringah (NSW) 8.78 74.54 3.04 - - 3.76 9.88
Bowman (QLD) 5.12 75.70 3.35 - - 15.83 -
Ryan (QLD) 3.27 77.26 5.31 - - 14.16 -
Barker (SA) 3.18 78.67 3.18 - - 3.18 11.80
Canning (WA) 3.34 78.87 3.34 - - 14.46 -
Bennelong (NSW) 3.34 78.87 3.34 - - 14.46 -
Wide Bay (QLD) 5.64 79.03 3.25 - - 12.08 -
Fisher (QLD) 5.12 79.13 4.14 - - 11.61 -
Aston (VIC) 2.48 80.24 3.24 - - 14.04 -
Groom (QLD) 6.96 82.65 3.21 - - 3.21 3.97
Menzies (VIC) 3.21 82.76 3.21 7.60 - 3.21 -
Cowper (NSW) 7.69 83.77 3.25 - - 5.29 -
Wentworth (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 -
Cook (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 -
Moncrieff (QLD) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 -
Mitchell (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 -
McMillan (VIC) 4.11 84.71 3.32 - - 7.85 -
Farrer (NSW) 7.13 84.72 4.07 - - 4.07 -
Hughes (NSW) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 -
Riverina (NSW) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 -
Mallee (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 -
Bradfield (NSW) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 -
Wannon (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 -
Tangney (WA) - 85.39 4.11 7.19 - 3.32 -
Calare (NSW) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 -
McPherson (QLD) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 -
Maranoa (QLD) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 -
Durack (WA) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 -
Gippsland (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 -
Mackellar (NSW) - 85.39 3.32 7.19 - 4.11 -
Moore (WA) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 -
Forrest (WA) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 -
Flinders (VIC) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 -
Fadden (QLD) 5.42 85.83 3.33 - - 5.42 -
O'Connor (WA) 5.42 85.83 3.33 - - 5.42 -
Curtin (WA) 3.33 85.83 5.42 - - 5.42 -
Wright (QLD) 4.13 85.86 3.34 - - 6.67 -
Kooyong (VIC) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 -
Lyne (NSW) 7.24 86.07 3.34 - - 3.34 -
Berowra (NSW) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 -
Grey (SA) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 -
Parkes (NSW) 7.24 86.07 3.34 - - 3.34 -
Fairfax (QLD) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 -
North Sydney (NSW) 4.15 86.26 4.15 - - 5.45 -
Hume (NSW) 4.17 86.63 3.37 - - 5.83 -
Goldstein (VIC) 3.37 86.75 2.58 - - 7.30 -
Murray (VIC) 5.00 88.11 3.08 - - 3.81 -

And a count of favourites from above yields the following table, which is the chart at the top of this post.

Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team
0 78 1 2 1 68 0

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