The most recent odds for the Coalition winning the election are as follows.
| House | Coalition Odds ($) | Labor Odds ($) | Coalition Win Probability (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-20 | Betfair | 1.29 | 4.04 | 75.80 |
| 2016-05-20 | CrownBet | 1.30 | 3.45 | 72.63 |
| 2016-05-20 | Ladbrokes | 1.30 | 3.40 | 72.34 |
| 2016-05-20 | Luxbet | 1.28 | 3.60 | 73.77 |
| 2016-05-20 | Sportsbet | 1.30 | 3.50 | 72.92 |
| 2016-05-20 | TABtouch | 1.28 | 3.45 | 72.94 |
| 2016-05-20 | William Hill | 1.28 | 3.60 | 73.77 |
The implied Coalition win probabilities have increased over the week.
| Fr 13-May | Sa 14-May | Su 15-May | Mo 16-May | Tu 17-May | We 18-May | Th 19-May | Fr 20-May | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 71.70 | 73.23 | 73.08 | 73.90 | 72.80 | 74.40 | 74.76 | 75.80 |
| CrownBet | 70.96 | 70.96 | 70.96 | 70.96 | 70.96 | 70.00 | 71.73 | 72.63 |
| Ladbrokes | 70.96 | 70.96 | 72.34 | 70.00 | 70.00 | 70.00 | 72.34 | 72.34 |
| Luxbet | 74.19 | 74.19 | 74.19 | 73.07 | 71.43 | 73.77 | 73.77 | 73.77 |
| Sportsbet | 70.96 | 69.00 | 69.00 | 69.00 | 70.48 | 70.48 | 72.92 | 72.92 |
| TABtouch | 70.79 | 71.43 | 71.43 | 72.94 | 70.47 | 72.94 | 72.94 | 72.94 |
| William Hill | 71.74 | 72.34 | 72.34 | 73.77 | 71.43 | 73.77 | 73.77 | 73.77 |
| Average | 71.61 | 71.73 | 71.91 | 71.95 | 71.08 | 72.19 | 73.18 | 73.45 |
Which can be seen in the usual charts as follows.
Turning to the Sportsbet odds on individual seats: This morning we had odds on all seat outcomes except O'Connor in WA (which is a safe Coalition seat). The chart for the count of favourites in the 149 seats with odds follows.
Which in table form follows (with O'Connor added by hand). The 0.5 comes from Swan, where the Coalition and Labor are equal favourites.
| Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 80.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
The remainder of these tables are produced automatically. I have dumped theme here unedited.
Seats with Equal Favourites
| % | Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | |||||||
| Swan (WA) | 3.29 | 45.69 | 5.34 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.69 | 0.0 |
Complete list of Seat Odds
| $ | 1 Territory | Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Liberal | National | Nick Xenophon Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | ||||||||||
| Adelaide (SA) | - | 26.0 | 4.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.33 | - | - | 9.0 |
| Aston (VIC) | - | 34.0 | 1.05 | 26.00 | - | - | 6.00 | - | - | - |
| Ballarat (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Banks (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.75 | 21.00 | - | - | 2.00 | - | - | - |
| Barker (SA) | - | 26.0 | 1.05 | 26.00 | - | - | 26.00 | - | - | 7.0 |
| Barton (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 8.50 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - |
| Bass (TAS) | - | 26.0 | 1.25 | 26.00 | - | - | 3.75 | - | - | - |
| Batman (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 26.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 1.35 | - | - | - |
| Bendigo (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 6.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - |
| Bennelong (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.10 | 26.00 | - | - | 6.00 | - | - | - |
| Berowra (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Blair (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 8.50 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - |
| Blaxland (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Bonner (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.50 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.30 | - | - | - |
| Boothby (SA) | - | 26.0 | 1.20 | 26.00 | - | - | 7.50 | - | - | 6.0 |
| Bowman (QLD) | - | 17.0 | 1.15 | 26.00 | - | - | 5.50 | - | - | - |
| Braddon (TAS) | - | 21.0 | 1.45 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.60 | - | - | - |
| Bradfield (NSW) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Brand (WA) | - | 26.0 | 13.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Brisbane (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.62 | 21.00 | - | - | 2.20 | - | - | - |
| Bruce (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 5.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - |
| Burt (WA) | - | 34.0 | 2.25 | - | - | - | 1.60 | - | - | - |
| Calare (NSW) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | 16.0 |
| Calwell (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 11.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Canberra (ACT) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Canning (WA) | - | 26.0 | 1.10 | 26.00 | - | - | 6.00 | - | - | - |
| Capricornia (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 3.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.35 | - | - | - |
| Casey (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 1.17 | 26.00 | - | - | 4.50 | - | - | - |
| Chifley (NSW) | - | 21.0 | 16.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Chisholm (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 6.50 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - |
| Cook (NSW) | - | 16.0 | 1.01 | 16.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Corangamite (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 1.75 | 21.00 | - | - | 2.00 | - | - | - |
| Corio (VIC) | - | 16.0 | 16.00 | 16.00 | - | - | 1.02 | - | - | - |
| Cowan (WA) | - | 26.0 | 1.67 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.20 | - | - | - |
| Cowper (NSW) | - | 11.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Cunningham (NSW) | - | 13.0 | 21.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Curtin (WA) | - | 26.0 | 1.01 | 16.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Dawson (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.20 | 26.00 | - | - | 4.00 | - | - | - |
| Deakin (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 1.75 | 15.00 | - | - | 2.00 | - | - | - |
| Denison (TAS) | - | 26.0 | 21.00 | 21.00 | 1.10 | - | 6.00 | - | - | - |
| Dickson (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.35 | 26.00 | - | - | 3.00 | - | - | - |
| Dobell (NSW) | - | 34.0 | 2.50 | 34.00 | - | - | 1.50 | - | - | - |
| Dunkley (VIC) | - | 41.0 | 1.58 | 31.00 | - | - | 2.40 | - | - | - |
| Durack (WA) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | - | 51.0 | 2.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.75 | - | - | - |
| Fadden (QLD) | - | 16.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Fairfax (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Farrer (NSW) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 21.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Fenner (ACT) | - | 21.0 | 16.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Fisher (QLD) | - | 17.0 | 1.10 | 21.00 | - | - | 7.50 | - | - | - |
| Flinders (VIC) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Flynn (QLD) | - | 16.0 | 1.30 | 34.00 | - | - | 3.30 | - | - | - |
| Forde (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.50 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.50 | - | - | - |
| Forrest (WA) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Fowler (NSW) | - | 16.0 | 21.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Franklin (TAS) | - | 26.0 | 8.00 | 11.00 | - | - | 1.07 | - | - | - |
| Fremantle (WA) | - | 26.0 | 13.00 | 4.20 | - | - | 1.20 | - | - | - |
| Gelibrand (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 16.00 | 12.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Gilmore (NSW) | - | 31.0 | 1.45 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.50 | - | - | - |
| Gippsland (VIC) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Goldstein (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 1.01 | 34.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Gorton (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 16.00 | 16.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Grayndler (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 17.00 | 3.35 | - | - | 1.30 | - | - | - |
| Greenway (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 5.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.12 | - | - | - |
| Grey (SA) | - | 26.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | 16.0 |
| Griffith (QLD) | - | 34.0 | 6.00 | 23.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - |
| Groom (QLD) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 26.00 | - | - | 21.0 |
| Hasluck (WA) | - | 26.0 | 2.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.70 | - | - | - |
| Herbert (QLD) | - | 21.0 | 1.30 | 26.00 | - | - | 3.50 | - | - | - |
| Higgins (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 1.15 | 7.50 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | 11.0 |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | - | 26.0 | 2.50 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.75 | - | - | 7.5 |
| Hinkler (QLD) | - | 15.0 | 1.15 | 26.00 | - | - | 5.00 | - | - | - |
| Holt (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Hotham (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Hughes (NSW) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Hume (NSW) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 15.00 | - | - | - |
| Hunter(NSW) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Indi (VIC) | - | 26.0 | - | 51.00 | 1.15 | - | 16.00 | 11.0 | 6.0 | - |
| Isaacs (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 8.50 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - |
| Jagajaga (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Kennedy (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 4.25 | 26.00 | - | 1.2 | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Kingsford Smith (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 8.50 | 11.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - |
| Kingston (SA) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | 8.0 |
| Kooyong (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| La Trobe (Vic) | - | 26.0 | 1.60 | 21.00 | - | - | 2.25 | - | - | - |
| Lalor (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 11.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Leichhardt (QLD) | - | 12.0 | 1.35 | 26.00 | - | - | 3.00 | - | - | - |
| Lilley (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 8.50 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - |
| Lindsay (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.50 | 21.00 | - | - | 2.40 | - | - | 16.0 |
| Lingiari (NT) | 51.0 | 26.0 | 3.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.30 | - | - | - |
| Longman (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.20 | 26.00 | - | - | 4.00 | - | - | - |
| Lyne (NSW) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 26.00 | - | - | - |
| Lyons (TAS) | - | 16.0 | 1.55 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.35 | - | - | - |
| Macarthur (NSW) | - | 21.0 | 2.00 | 34.00 | - | - | 1.75 | - | - | 16.0 |
| Mackellar (NSW) | - | - | 1.01 | 26.00 | 12.00 | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Macquarie (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.50 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.20 | - | - | - |
| Makin (SA) | - | 26.0 | 16.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.08 | - | - | 7.0 |
| Mallee (VIC) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Maranoa (QLD) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Maribyrnong (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 11.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Mayo (SA) | - | 21.0 | 1.10 | 31.00 | - | - | 31.00 | - | - | 5.0 |
| McEwen (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 3.40 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.30 | - | - | - |
| McMahon (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 11.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| McMillan (VIC) | - | 21.0 | 1.02 | 26.00 | - | - | 11.00 | - | - | - |
| McPherson (QLD) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Melbourne (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 21.00 | 1.05 | - | - | 9.00 | - | - | - |
| Melbourne Ports (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 16.00 | 5.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - |
| Menzies (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | 11.00 | - | 26.00 | - | - | - |
| Mitchell (NSW) | - | 16.0 | 1.01 | 16.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Moncrieff (QLD) | - | 16.0 | 1.01 | 16.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Moore (WA) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Moreton (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 8.50 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | 16.0 |
| Murray (VIC) | - | 16.0 | - | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | 2.1 | 1.6 | - |
| New England (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.40 | 26.00 | 2.50 | - | 26.00 | - | - | - |
| Newcastle (NSW) | - | 17.0 | 12.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.04 | - | - | - |
| North Sydney (NSW) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 21.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Oxley (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Page (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.75 | 11.00 | - | - | 2.30 | - | - | - |
| Parkes (NSW) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 26.00 | - | - | - |
| Parramatta (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 5.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - |
| Paterson (NSW) | - | 17.0 | 3.75 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.25 | - | - | - |
| Pearce (WA) | - | 26.0 | 1.20 | 21.00 | - | - | 4.20 | - | - | - |
| Perth (WA) | - | 51.0 | 8.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.03 | - | - | - |
| Petrie (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 3.00 | 41.00 | - | - | 1.35 | - | - | - |
| Port Adelaide (SA) | - | 26.0 | 21.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | 11.0 |
| Rankin (QLD) | - | 21.0 | 12.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Reid (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.63 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.05 | - | - | - |
| Richmond (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 4.50 | 5.00 | - | - | 1.45 | - | - | - |
| Riverina (NSW) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Robertson (NSW) | - | 34.0 | 1.57 | 7.00 | - | - | 2.25 | - | - | - |
| Ryan (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.10 | 16.00 | - | - | 6.00 | - | - | - |
| Scullin (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 16.00 | 8.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - |
| Shortland (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Solomon (NT) | - | 26.0 | 2.50 | 26.00 | 101.00 | - | 1.50 | - | - | - |
| Stirling (WA) | - | 26.0 | 1.44 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.55 | - | - | - |
| Sturt (SA) | - | - | 1.15 | 26.00 | - | - | 7.00 | - | - | 5.0 |
| Swan (WA) | - | 26.0 | 1.87 | 16.00 | - | - | 1.87 | - | - | - |
| Sydney (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 21.00 | 5.00 | - | - | 1.17 | - | - | - |
| Tangney (WA) | - | - | 1.01 | 21.00 | 12.00 | - | 26.00 | - | - | - |
| Wakefield (SA) | - | 26.0 | 16.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.08 | - | - | 6.0 |
| Wannon (VIC) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Warringah (NSW) | - | 9.0 | 1.06 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | 8.0 |
| Watson (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 11.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Wentworth (NSW) | - | 16.0 | 1.01 | 16.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Werriwa (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 11.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Whitlam (NSW) | - | 16.0 | 12.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Wide Bay (QLD) | - | 15.0 | 1.07 | 26.00 | - | - | 7.00 | - | - | - |
| Wills (VIC) | - | 41.0 | 31.00 | 4.50 | - | - | 1.16 | - | - | - |
| Wright (QLD) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 13.00 | - | - | - |
Complete list of Seat Probabilities
| % | Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | |||||||
| Wills (VIC) | 2.14 | 2.83 | 19.48 | - | - | 75.56 | - |
| Batman (VIC) | 3.34 | 3.34 | 28.96 | - | - | 64.36 | - |
| Port Adelaide (SA) | 3.17 | 3.92 | 3.92 | - | - | 81.51 | 7.48 |
| Denison (TAS) | 3.18 | 3.94 | 3.94 | 75.17 | - | 13.78 | - |
| Cunningham (NSW) | 6.62 | 4.10 | 4.10 | - | - | 85.19 | - |
| Melbourne (VIC) | 3.35 | 4.14 | 82.85 | - | - | 9.67 | - |
| Fowler (NSW) | 5.45 | 4.15 | 4.15 | - | - | 86.26 | - |
| Sydney (NSW) | 3.37 | 4.17 | 17.53 | - | - | 74.92 | - |
| Grayndler (NSW) | 3.30 | 5.05 | 25.62 | - | - | 66.03 | - |
| Wakefield (SA) | 3.12 | 5.07 | 3.12 | - | - | 75.16 | 13.53 |
| Melbourne Ports (VIC) | 3.18 | 5.17 | 16.53 | - | - | 75.13 | - |
| Makin (SA) | 3.18 | 5.17 | 3.18 | - | - | 76.64 | 11.82 |
| Scullin (VIC) | 3.26 | 5.30 | 10.61 | - | - | 80.82 | - |
| Gelibrand (VIC) | 3.28 | 5.32 | 7.10 | - | - | 84.31 | - |
| Corio (VIC) | 5.35 | 5.35 | 5.35 | - | - | 83.95 | - |
| Gorton (VIC) | 3.33 | 5.42 | 5.42 | - | - | 85.83 | - |
| Chifley (NSW) | 4.15 | 5.45 | 4.15 | - | - | 86.26 | - |
| Fenner (ACT) | 4.15 | 5.45 | 4.15 | - | - | 86.26 | - |
| Fremantle (WA) | 3.24 | 6.48 | 20.06 | - | - | 70.22 | - |
| Brand (WA) | 3.34 | 6.67 | 4.13 | - | - | 85.86 | - |
| Kingston (SA) | 3.22 | 6.98 | 3.22 | - | - | 76.12 | 10.47 |
| Whitlam (NSW) | 5.32 | 7.10 | 3.28 | - | - | 84.31 | - |
| Jagajaga (VIC) | 3.32 | 7.19 | 4.11 | - | - | 85.39 | - |
| Oxley (QLD) | 3.32 | 7.19 | 4.11 | - | - | 85.39 | - |
| Rankin (QLD) | 4.11 | 7.19 | 3.32 | - | - | 85.39 | - |
| Holt (VIC) | 3.32 | 7.19 | 4.11 | - | - | 85.39 | - |
| Hotham (VIC) | 3.32 | 7.19 | 4.11 | - | - | 85.39 | - |
| Shortland (NSW) | 3.32 | 7.19 | 4.11 | - | - | 85.39 | - |
| Ballarat (VIC) | 3.32 | 7.19 | 4.11 | - | - | 85.39 | - |
| Newcastle (NSW) | 5.11 | 7.24 | 4.14 | - | - | 83.52 | - |
| Canberra (ACT) | 3.34 | 7.24 | 3.34 | - | - | 86.07 | - |
| Hunter(NSW) | 3.34 | 7.24 | 3.34 | - | - | 86.07 | - |
| Blaxland (NSW) | 3.34 | 7.24 | 3.34 | - | - | 86.07 | - |
| Lalor (VIC) | 3.30 | 7.79 | 4.08 | - | - | 84.83 | - |
| Maribyrnong (VIC) | 3.30 | 7.79 | 4.08 | - | - | 84.83 | - |
| Calwell (VIC) | 3.30 | 7.79 | 4.08 | - | - | 84.83 | - |
| Werriwa (NSW) | 3.30 | 7.79 | 4.08 | - | - | 84.83 | - |
| Watson (NSW) | 3.32 | 7.85 | 3.32 | - | - | 85.51 | - |
| McMahon (NSW) | 3.32 | 7.85 | 3.32 | - | - | 85.51 | - |
| Moreton (QLD) | 3.16 | 9.65 | 3.91 | - | - | 78.15 | 5.13 |
| Kingsford Smith (NSW) | 3.21 | 9.81 | 7.58 | - | - | 79.40 | - |
| Isaacs (VIC) | 3.33 | 10.18 | 4.12 | - | - | 82.38 | - |
| Lilley (QLD) | 3.33 | 10.18 | 4.12 | - | - | 82.38 | - |
| Blair (QLD) | 3.35 | 10.26 | 3.35 | - | - | 83.04 | - |
| Barton (NSW) | 3.35 | 10.26 | 3.35 | - | - | 83.04 | - |
| Franklin (TAS) | 3.23 | 10.51 | 7.65 | - | - | 78.61 | - |
| Perth (WA) | 1.69 | 10.75 | 4.09 | - | - | 83.47 | - |
| Chisholm (VIC) | 3.35 | 13.39 | 4.14 | - | - | 79.12 | - |
| Bendigo (VIC) | 3.34 | 14.46 | 3.34 | - | - | 78.87 | - |
| Griffith (QLD) | 2.56 | 14.51 | 3.79 | - | - | 79.14 | - |
| Bruce (VIC) | 3.24 | 16.86 | 3.24 | - | - | 76.65 | - |
| Parramatta (NSW) | 3.24 | 16.86 | 3.24 | - | - | 76.65 | - |
| Greenway (NSW) | 3.29 | 17.10 | 3.29 | - | - | 76.33 | - |
| Richmond (NSW) | 3.34 | 19.32 | 17.39 | - | - | 59.95 | - |
| Kennedy (QLD) | 3.22 | 19.72 | 3.22 | - | 69.84 | 3.99 | - |
| Indi (VIC) | 3.08 | 20.64 | 1.57 | 69.69 | - | 5.01 | - |
| Adelaide (SA) | 3.21 | 20.85 | 3.97 | - | - | 62.71 | 9.27 |
| Paterson (NSW) | 5.05 | 22.91 | 3.30 | - | - | 68.73 | - |
| McEwen (VIC) | 3.35 | 25.59 | 4.14 | - | - | 66.92 | - |
| Lingiari (NT) | 4.81 | 27.59 | 3.94 | - | - | 63.66 | - |
| Capricornia (QLD) | 3.34 | 28.96 | 3.34 | - | - | 64.36 | - |
| Petrie (QLD) | 3.38 | 29.32 | 2.15 | - | - | 65.15 | - |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | 3.25 | 33.85 | 3.25 | - | - | 48.36 | 11.28 |
| Solomon (NT) | 3.33 | 34.68 | 3.33 | 0.86 | - | 57.80 | - |
| Dobell (NSW) | 2.61 | 35.54 | 2.61 | - | - | 59.23 | - |
| Burt (WA) | 2.68 | 40.45 | - | - | - | 56.88 | - |
| Macarthur (NSW) | 3.93 | 41.29 | 2.43 | - | - | 47.19 | 5.16 |
| Hasluck (WA) | 3.28 | 42.58 | 4.06 | - | - | 50.09 | - |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | 1.77 | 45.02 | 1.77 | - | - | 51.45 | - |
| Swan (WA) | 3.29 | 45.69 | 5.34 | - | - | 45.69 | - |
| Deakin (VIC) | 3.27 | 48.57 | 5.67 | - | - | 42.50 | - |
| Banks (NSW) | 3.32 | 49.37 | 4.11 | - | - | 43.20 | - |
| Corangamite (VIC) | 3.32 | 49.37 | 4.11 | - | - | 43.20 | - |
| Page (NSW) | 3.39 | 50.32 | 8.01 | - | - | 38.29 | - |
| Robertson (NSW) | 2.35 | 50.81 | 11.40 | - | - | 35.45 | - |
| Reid (NSW) | 3.26 | 52.07 | 3.26 | - | - | 41.40 | - |
| Cowan (WA) | 3.40 | 52.98 | 3.40 | - | - | 40.22 | - |
| Brisbane (QLD) | 3.32 | 53.31 | 4.11 | - | - | 39.26 | - |
| La Trobe (Vic) | 3.33 | 54.09 | 4.12 | - | - | 38.46 | - |
| Lindsay (NSW) | 3.12 | 54.12 | 3.87 | - | - | 33.82 | 5.07 |
| Lyons (TAS) | 5.33 | 55.06 | 3.28 | - | - | 36.32 | - |
| Macquarie (NSW) | 3.21 | 55.64 | 3.21 | - | - | 37.94 | - |
| Bonner (QLD) | 3.26 | 56.58 | 3.26 | - | - | 36.90 | - |
| Dunkley (VIC) | 2.20 | 57.21 | 2.92 | - | - | 37.67 | - |
| New England (NSW) | 3.13 | 58.09 | 3.13 | 32.53 | - | 3.13 | - |
| Forde (QLD) | 3.36 | 58.30 | 3.36 | - | - | 34.98 | - |
| Gilmore (NSW) | 2.78 | 59.43 | 3.31 | - | - | 34.47 | - |
| Braddon (TAS) | 4.10 | 59.44 | 3.31 | - | - | 33.15 | - |
| Stirling (WA) | 3.31 | 59.68 | 3.31 | - | - | 33.70 | - |
| Leichhardt (QLD) | 6.97 | 61.94 | 3.22 | - | - | 27.87 | - |
| Dickson (QLD) | 3.34 | 64.36 | 3.34 | - | - | 28.96 | - |
| Flynn (QLD) | 5.37 | 66.08 | 2.53 | - | - | 26.03 | - |
| Herbert (QLD) | 4.17 | 67.42 | 3.37 | - | - | 25.04 | - |
| Boothby (SA) | 3.18 | 68.86 | 3.18 | - | - | 11.02 | 13.77 |
| Sturt (SA) | - | 69.52 | 3.07 | - | - | 11.42 | 15.99 |
| Bass (TAS) | 3.36 | 69.96 | 3.36 | - | - | 23.32 | - |
| Longman (QLD) | 3.31 | 71.82 | 3.31 | - | - | 21.55 | - |
| Dawson (QLD) | 3.31 | 71.82 | 3.31 | - | - | 21.55 | - |
| Pearce (WA) | 3.32 | 71.99 | 4.11 | - | - | 20.57 | - |
| Higgins (VIC) | 3.22 | 72.78 | 11.16 | - | - | 5.23 | 7.61 |
| Hinkler (QLD) | 5.68 | 74.02 | 3.27 | - | - | 17.03 | - |
| Casey (VIC) | 3.33 | 74.07 | 3.33 | - | - | 19.26 | - |
| Mayo (SA) | 3.90 | 74.44 | 2.64 | - | - | 2.64 | 16.38 |
| Warringah (NSW) | 8.78 | 74.54 | 3.04 | - | - | 3.76 | 9.88 |
| Bowman (QLD) | 5.12 | 75.70 | 3.35 | - | - | 15.83 | - |
| Ryan (QLD) | 3.27 | 77.26 | 5.31 | - | - | 14.16 | - |
| Barker (SA) | 3.18 | 78.67 | 3.18 | - | - | 3.18 | 11.80 |
| Bennelong (NSW) | 3.34 | 78.87 | 3.34 | - | - | 14.46 | - |
| Canning (WA) | 3.34 | 78.87 | 3.34 | - | - | 14.46 | - |
| Wide Bay (QLD) | 5.64 | 79.03 | 3.25 | - | - | 12.08 | - |
| Fisher (QLD) | 5.12 | 79.13 | 4.14 | - | - | 11.61 | - |
| Aston (VIC) | 2.48 | 80.24 | 3.24 | - | - | 14.04 | - |
| Calare (NSW) | 6.82 | 81.02 | 3.15 | - | - | 3.90 | 5.11 |
| Grey (SA) | 3.17 | 81.63 | 3.17 | - | - | 6.87 | 5.15 |
| Groom (QLD) | 6.96 | 82.65 | 3.21 | - | - | 3.21 | 3.97 |
| Menzies (VIC) | 3.21 | 82.76 | 3.21 | 7.60 | - | 3.21 | - |
| Cowper (NSW) | 7.69 | 83.77 | 3.25 | - | - | 5.29 | - |
| Moncrieff (QLD) | 5.31 | 84.08 | 5.31 | - | - | 5.31 | - |
| Cook (NSW) | 5.31 | 84.08 | 5.31 | - | - | 5.31 | - |
| Mitchell (NSW) | 5.31 | 84.08 | 5.31 | - | - | 5.31 | - |
| Wentworth (NSW) | 5.31 | 84.08 | 5.31 | - | - | 5.31 | - |
| McMillan (VIC) | 4.11 | 84.71 | 3.32 | - | - | 7.85 | - |
| Farrer (NSW) | 7.13 | 84.72 | 4.07 | - | - | 4.07 | - |
| Bradfield (NSW) | 4.11 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 7.19 | - |
| Hughes (NSW) | 4.11 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 7.19 | - |
| Tangney (WA) | - | 85.39 | 4.11 | 7.19 | - | 3.32 | - |
| Wannon (VIC) | 7.19 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 4.11 | - |
| Riverina (NSW) | 7.19 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 4.11 | - |
| Durack (WA) | 7.19 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 4.11 | - |
| Mackellar (NSW) | - | 85.39 | 3.32 | 7.19 | - | 4.11 | - |
| Forrest (WA) | 4.11 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 7.19 | - |
| Maranoa (QLD) | 7.19 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 4.11 | - |
| Mallee (VIC) | 7.19 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 4.11 | - |
| McPherson (QLD) | 4.11 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 7.19 | - |
| Gippsland (VIC) | 7.19 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 4.11 | - |
| Moore (WA) | 4.11 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 7.19 | - |
| Flinders (VIC) | 4.11 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 7.19 | - |
| Curtin (WA) | 3.33 | 85.83 | 5.42 | - | - | 5.42 | - |
| Fadden (QLD) | 5.42 | 85.83 | 3.33 | - | - | 5.42 | - |
| Wright (QLD) | 4.13 | 85.86 | 3.34 | - | - | 6.67 | - |
| Kooyong (VIC) | 3.34 | 86.07 | 3.34 | - | - | 7.24 | - |
| Fairfax (QLD) | 3.34 | 86.07 | 3.34 | - | - | 7.24 | - |
| Parkes (NSW) | 7.24 | 86.07 | 3.34 | - | - | 3.34 | - |
| Lyne (NSW) | 7.24 | 86.07 | 3.34 | - | - | 3.34 | - |
| Berowra (NSW) | 3.34 | 86.07 | 3.34 | - | - | 7.24 | - |
| North Sydney (NSW) | 4.15 | 86.26 | 4.15 | - | - | 5.45 | - |
| Hume (NSW) | 4.17 | 86.63 | 3.37 | - | - | 5.83 | - |
| Goldstein (VIC) | 3.37 | 86.75 | 2.58 | - | - | 7.30 | - |
| Murray (VIC) | 5.00 | 88.11 | 3.08 | - | - | 3.81 | - |
Greens in with a chance (ie. with a probability >= 25 per cent)
| % | Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | |||||||
| Grayndler (NSW) | 3.30 | 5.05 | 25.62 | - | - | 66.03 | - |
| Batman (VIC) | 3.34 | 3.34 | 28.96 | - | - | 64.36 | - |
| Melbourne (VIC) | 3.35 | 4.14 | 82.85 | - | - | 9.67 | - |
Xenophon in with a chance
| Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate |
Independent in with a chance
| Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | |||||||
| New England (NSW) | 3.13 | 58.09 | 3.13 | 32.53 | - | 3.13 | - |
| Indi (VIC) | 3.08 | 20.64 | 1.57 | 69.69 | - | 5.01 | - |
| Denison (TAS) | 3.18 | 3.94 | 3.94 | 75.17 | - | 13.78 | - |
Three Cornered Contests
| Any Other | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Liberal | National | Nick Xenophon Team | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DateTime | Electorate | ||||||||
| 2016-05-20 06:12:38 | Indi (VIC) | 3.08 | 1.57 | 69.69 | - | 5.01 | 7.29 | 13.36 | - |
| Murray (VIC) | 5.00 | 3.08 | - | - | 3.81 | 38.10 | 50.01 | - |
CHANGING SEATS
| TPP 2013 | TCP 2013 | 2013 Outcome | 2016 Favourite | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seat | ||||
| Burt (WA) | LIB 6.1% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Capricornia (QLD) | LNP 0.8% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | LIB 2.9% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Fairfax (QLD) | - | PUP 0.03% v LNP | Palmer United | Coalition |
| Hasluck (WA) | LIB 6.0% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | LIB 1.9% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Macarthur (NSW) | LIB 3.3% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| O'Connor (WA) | LIB 15.3% | Lib 0.9% v NAT | Coalition | - |
| Petrie (QLD) | LNP 0.5% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Solomon (NT) | CLP 1.4% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Swan (WA) | LIB 7.3% | - | Coalition | ? |
Close Seats (where the favourite is on a probability of less than 60 per cent).
| Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | |||||||
| Richmond (NSW) | 3.34 | 19.32 | 17.39 | - | - | 59.95 | - |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | 3.25 | 33.85 | 3.25 | - | - | 48.36 | 11.28 |
| Solomon (NT) | 3.33 | 34.68 | 3.33 | 0.86 | - | 57.80 | - |
| Dobell (NSW) | 2.61 | 35.54 | 2.61 | - | - | 59.23 | - |
| Burt (WA) | 2.68 | 40.45 | - | - | - | 56.88 | - |
| Macarthur (NSW) | 3.93 | 41.29 | 2.43 | - | - | 47.19 | 5.16 |
| Hasluck (WA) | 3.28 | 42.58 | 4.06 | - | - | 50.09 | - |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | 1.77 | 45.02 | 1.77 | - | - | 51.45 | - |
| Swan (WA) | 3.29 | 45.69 | 5.34 | - | - | 45.69 | - |
| Deakin (VIC) | 3.27 | 48.57 | 5.67 | - | - | 42.50 | - |
| Banks (NSW) | 3.32 | 49.37 | 4.11 | - | - | 43.20 | - |
| Corangamite (VIC) | 3.32 | 49.37 | 4.11 | - | - | 43.20 | - |
| Page (NSW) | 3.39 | 50.32 | 8.01 | - | - | 38.29 | - |
| Robertson (NSW) | 2.35 | 50.81 | 11.40 | - | - | 35.45 | - |
| Reid (NSW) | 3.26 | 52.07 | 3.26 | - | - | 41.40 | - |
| Cowan (WA) | 3.40 | 52.98 | 3.40 | - | - | 40.22 | - |
| Brisbane (QLD) | 3.32 | 53.31 | 4.11 | - | - | 39.26 | - |
| La Trobe (Vic) | 3.33 | 54.09 | 4.12 | - | - | 38.46 | - |
| Lindsay (NSW) | 3.12 | 54.12 | 3.87 | - | - | 33.82 | 5.07 |
| Lyons (TAS) | 5.33 | 55.06 | 3.28 | - | - | 36.32 | - |
| Macquarie (NSW) | 3.21 | 55.64 | 3.21 | - | - | 37.94 | - |
| Bonner (QLD) | 3.26 | 56.58 | 3.26 | - | - | 36.90 | - |
| Dunkley (VIC) | 2.20 | 57.21 | 2.92 | - | - | 37.67 | - |
| New England (NSW) | 3.13 | 58.09 | 3.13 | 32.53 | - | 3.13 | - |
| Forde (QLD) | 3.36 | 58.30 | 3.36 | - | - | 34.98 | - |
| Gilmore (NSW) | 2.78 | 59.43 | 3.31 | - | - | 34.47 | - |
| Braddon (TAS) | 4.10 | 59.44 | 3.31 | - | - | 33.15 | - |
| Stirling (WA) | 3.31 | 59.68 | 3.31 | - | - | 33.70 | - |
Mark ,I may have missed it but it would be good to put up what seats the bookies are saying the coalition will win, ?The ALP and then Independents so we know what they are saying for the result.
ReplyDeleteAdded favourites to the table here (at bottom of post) ... http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2016/05/reachtel-50-50-ipsos-51-49.html
Deletethanks mate
ReplyDelete