- The Ipsos poll of 1497 respondents between 17-19 May had the Coalition on 51 to Labor's 49.
- The ReachTEL poll of 2407 respondents on 19 May had the Coalition and Labor on 50.
Placing these numbers into the standard aggregation model, yields an estimated national voting intention of 49.9 for the Coalition to 50.1 to Labor - a dead heat.
The primary vote aggregation (and implied national TPP vote using preferences from the last election) follow.
Update
The complete set of Sportsbet seat betting market tables follow.Election outcome based on all favourites winning their seat
| Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 80.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
A list of seats with equal favourites
| Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team | 2016 Favourite | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | ||||||||
| Swan (WA) | 3.29 | 45.69 | 5.34 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.69 | 0.0 | Coalition, Labor |
Complete list of Seat Odds
| $ | 1 Territory | Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Liberal | National | Nick Xenophon Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | ||||||||||
| Adelaide (SA) | - | 26.0 | 4.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.33 | - | - | 9.0 |
| Aston (VIC) | - | 34.0 | 1.05 | 26.00 | - | - | 6.00 | - | - | - |
| Ballarat (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Banks (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.75 | 21.00 | - | - | 2.00 | - | - | - |
| Barker (SA) | - | 26.0 | 1.05 | 26.00 | - | - | 26.00 | - | - | 7.0 |
| Barton (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 8.50 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - |
| Bass (TAS) | - | 26.0 | 1.25 | 26.00 | - | - | 3.75 | - | - | - |
| Batman (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 26.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 1.35 | - | - | - |
| Bendigo (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 6.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - |
| Bennelong (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.10 | 26.00 | - | - | 6.00 | - | - | - |
| Berowra (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Blair (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 8.50 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - |
| Blaxland (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Bonner (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.50 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.30 | - | - | - |
| Boothby (SA) | - | 26.0 | 1.20 | 26.00 | - | - | 7.50 | - | - | 6.0 |
| Bowman (QLD) | - | 17.0 | 1.15 | 26.00 | - | - | 5.50 | - | - | - |
| Braddon (TAS) | - | 21.0 | 1.45 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.60 | - | - | - |
| Bradfield (NSW) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Brand (WA) | - | 26.0 | 13.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Brisbane (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.62 | 21.00 | - | - | 2.20 | - | - | - |
| Bruce (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 5.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - |
| Burt (WA) | - | 34.0 | 2.25 | - | - | - | 1.60 | - | - | - |
| Calare (NSW) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | 16.0 |
| Calwell (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 11.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Canberra (ACT) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Canning (WA) | - | 26.0 | 1.10 | 26.00 | - | - | 6.00 | - | - | - |
| Capricornia (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 3.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.35 | - | - | - |
| Casey (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 1.17 | 26.00 | - | - | 4.50 | - | - | - |
| Chifley (NSW) | - | 21.0 | 16.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Chisholm (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 6.50 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - |
| Cook (NSW) | - | 16.0 | 1.01 | 16.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Corangamite (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 1.75 | 21.00 | - | - | 2.00 | - | - | - |
| Corio (VIC) | - | 16.0 | 16.00 | 16.00 | - | - | 1.02 | - | - | - |
| Cowan (WA) | - | 26.0 | 1.67 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.20 | - | - | - |
| Cowper (NSW) | - | 11.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Cunningham (NSW) | - | 13.0 | 21.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Curtin (WA) | - | 26.0 | 1.01 | 16.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Dawson (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.20 | 26.00 | - | - | 4.00 | - | - | - |
| Deakin (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 1.75 | 15.00 | - | - | 2.00 | - | - | - |
| Denison (TAS) | - | 26.0 | 21.00 | 21.00 | 1.10 | - | 6.00 | - | - | - |
| Dickson (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.35 | 26.00 | - | - | 3.00 | - | - | - |
| Dobell (NSW) | - | 34.0 | 2.50 | 34.00 | - | - | 1.50 | - | - | - |
| Dunkley (VIC) | - | 41.0 | 1.58 | 31.00 | - | - | 2.40 | - | - | - |
| Durack (WA) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | - | 51.0 | 2.00 | 51.00 | - | - | 1.75 | - | - | - |
| Fadden (QLD) | - | 16.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Fairfax (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Farrer (NSW) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 21.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Fenner (ACT) | - | 21.0 | 16.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Fisher (QLD) | - | 17.0 | 1.10 | 21.00 | - | - | 7.50 | - | - | - |
| Flinders (VIC) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Flynn (QLD) | - | 16.0 | 1.30 | 34.00 | - | - | 3.30 | - | - | - |
| Forde (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.50 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.50 | - | - | - |
| Forrest (WA) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Fowler (NSW) | - | 16.0 | 21.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Franklin (TAS) | - | 26.0 | 8.00 | 11.00 | - | - | 1.07 | - | - | - |
| Fremantle (WA) | - | 26.0 | 13.00 | 4.20 | - | - | 1.20 | - | - | - |
| Gelibrand (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 16.00 | 12.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Gilmore (NSW) | - | 31.0 | 1.45 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.50 | - | - | - |
| Gippsland (VIC) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Goldstein (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 1.01 | 34.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Gorton (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 16.00 | 16.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Grayndler (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 17.00 | 3.35 | - | - | 1.30 | - | - | - |
| Greenway (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 5.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.12 | - | - | - |
| Grey (SA) | - | 26.0 | 1.02 | 26.00 | - | - | 7.00 | - | - | 16.0 |
| Griffith (QLD) | - | 34.0 | 6.00 | 23.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - |
| Groom (QLD) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 26.00 | - | - | 21.0 |
| Hasluck (WA) | - | 26.0 | 2.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.70 | - | - | - |
| Herbert (QLD) | - | 21.0 | 1.30 | 26.00 | - | - | 3.50 | - | - | - |
| Higgins (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 1.15 | 7.50 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | 11.0 |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | - | 26.0 | 2.50 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.75 | - | - | 7.5 |
| Hinkler (QLD) | - | 15.0 | 1.15 | 26.00 | - | - | 5.00 | - | - | - |
| Holt (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Hotham (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Hughes (NSW) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Hume (NSW) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 15.00 | - | - | - |
| Hunter(NSW) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Indi (VIC) | - | 26.0 | - | 51.00 | 1.15 | - | 16.00 | 11.0 | 6.0 | - |
| Isaacs (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 8.50 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - |
| Jagajaga (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Kennedy (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 4.25 | 26.00 | - | 1.2 | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Kingsford Smith (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 8.50 | 11.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - |
| Kingston (SA) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | 8.0 |
| Kooyong (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| La Trobe (Vic) | - | 26.0 | 1.60 | 21.00 | - | - | 2.25 | - | - | - |
| Lalor (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 11.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Leichhardt (QLD) | - | 12.0 | 1.35 | 26.00 | - | - | 3.00 | - | - | - |
| Lilley (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 8.50 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - |
| Lindsay (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.50 | 21.00 | - | - | 2.40 | - | - | 16.0 |
| Lingiari (NT) | 51.0 | 26.0 | 3.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.30 | - | - | - |
| Longman (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.20 | 26.00 | - | - | 4.00 | - | - | - |
| Lyne (NSW) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 26.00 | - | - | - |
| Lyons (TAS) | - | 16.0 | 1.55 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.35 | - | - | - |
| Macarthur (NSW) | - | 21.0 | 2.00 | 34.00 | - | - | 1.75 | - | - | 16.0 |
| Mackellar (NSW) | - | - | 1.01 | 26.00 | 12.00 | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Macquarie (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.50 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.20 | - | - | - |
| Makin (SA) | - | 26.0 | 16.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.08 | - | - | 7.0 |
| Mallee (VIC) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Maranoa (QLD) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Maribyrnong (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 11.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Mayo (SA) | - | 21.0 | 1.10 | 31.00 | - | - | 31.00 | - | - | 5.0 |
| McEwen (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 3.40 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.30 | - | - | - |
| McMahon (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 11.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| McMillan (VIC) | - | 21.0 | 1.02 | 26.00 | - | - | 11.00 | - | - | - |
| McPherson (QLD) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Melbourne (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 21.00 | 1.05 | - | - | 9.00 | - | - | - |
| Melbourne Ports (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 16.00 | 5.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - |
| Menzies (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | 11.00 | - | 26.00 | - | - | - |
| Mitchell (NSW) | - | 16.0 | 1.01 | 16.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Moncrieff (QLD) | - | 16.0 | 1.01 | 16.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Moore (WA) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Moreton (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 8.50 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | 16.0 |
| Murray (VIC) | - | 16.0 | - | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | 2.1 | 1.6 | - |
| New England (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.30 | 26.00 | 2.75 | - | 26.00 | - | - | - |
| Newcastle (NSW) | - | 17.0 | 12.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.04 | - | - | - |
| North Sydney (NSW) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 21.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| O'Connor (WA) | - | 16.0 | 1.01 | 21.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Oxley (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Page (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.75 | 11.00 | - | - | 2.30 | - | - | - |
| Parkes (NSW) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 26.00 | - | - | - |
| Parramatta (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 5.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.10 | - | - | - |
| Paterson (NSW) | - | 17.0 | 3.75 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.25 | - | - | - |
| Pearce (WA) | - | 26.0 | 1.20 | 21.00 | - | - | 4.20 | - | - | - |
| Perth (WA) | - | 51.0 | 8.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.03 | - | - | - |
| Petrie (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 3.00 | 41.00 | - | - | 1.35 | - | - | - |
| Port Adelaide (SA) | - | 26.0 | 21.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | 11.0 |
| Rankin (QLD) | - | 21.0 | 12.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Reid (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 1.63 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.05 | - | - | - |
| Richmond (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 4.50 | 5.00 | - | - | 1.45 | - | - | - |
| Riverina (NSW) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Robertson (NSW) | - | 34.0 | 1.57 | 7.00 | - | - | 2.25 | - | - | - |
| Ryan (QLD) | - | 26.0 | 1.10 | 16.00 | - | - | 6.00 | - | - | - |
| Scullin (VIC) | - | 26.0 | 16.00 | 8.00 | - | - | 1.05 | - | - | - |
| Shortland (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 12.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Solomon (NT) | - | 26.0 | 2.50 | 26.00 | 101.00 | - | 1.50 | - | - | - |
| Stirling (WA) | - | 26.0 | 1.44 | 26.00 | - | - | 2.55 | - | - | - |
| Sturt (SA) | - | - | 1.15 | 26.00 | - | - | 7.00 | - | - | 5.0 |
| Swan (WA) | - | 26.0 | 1.87 | 16.00 | - | - | 1.87 | - | - | - |
| Sydney (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 21.00 | 5.00 | - | - | 1.17 | - | - | - |
| Tangney (WA) | - | - | 1.01 | 21.00 | 12.00 | - | 26.00 | - | - | - |
| Wakefield (SA) | - | 26.0 | 16.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.08 | - | - | 6.0 |
| Wannon (VIC) | - | 12.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | - |
| Warringah (NSW) | - | 9.0 | 1.06 | 26.00 | - | - | 21.00 | - | - | 8.0 |
| Watson (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 11.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Wentworth (NSW) | - | 16.0 | 1.01 | 16.00 | - | - | 16.00 | - | - | - |
| Werriwa (NSW) | - | 26.0 | 11.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Whitlam (NSW) | - | 16.0 | 12.00 | 26.00 | - | - | 1.01 | - | - | - |
| Wide Bay (QLD) | - | 15.0 | 1.07 | 26.00 | - | - | 7.00 | - | - | - |
| Wills (VIC) | - | 41.0 | 31.00 | 4.50 | - | - | 1.16 | - | - | - |
| Wright (QLD) | - | 21.0 | 1.01 | 26.00 | - | - | 13.00 | - | - | - |
Complete list of Seat Probabilities
| % | Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team | 2016 Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | ||||||||
| Wills (VIC) | 2.14 | 2.83 | 19.48 | - | - | 75.56 | - | Labor |
| Batman (VIC) | 3.34 | 3.34 | 28.96 | - | - | 64.36 | - | Labor |
| Port Adelaide (SA) | 3.17 | 3.92 | 3.92 | - | - | 81.51 | 7.48 | Labor |
| Denison (TAS) | 3.18 | 3.94 | 3.94 | 75.17 | - | 13.78 | - | Independent |
| Cunningham (NSW) | 6.62 | 4.10 | 4.10 | - | - | 85.19 | - | Labor |
| Melbourne (VIC) | 3.35 | 4.14 | 82.85 | - | - | 9.67 | - | Green |
| Fowler (NSW) | 5.45 | 4.15 | 4.15 | - | - | 86.26 | - | Labor |
| Sydney (NSW) | 3.37 | 4.17 | 17.53 | - | - | 74.92 | - | Labor |
| Grayndler (NSW) | 3.30 | 5.05 | 25.62 | - | - | 66.03 | - | Labor |
| Wakefield (SA) | 3.12 | 5.07 | 3.12 | - | - | 75.16 | 13.53 | Labor |
| Melbourne Ports (VIC) | 3.18 | 5.17 | 16.53 | - | - | 75.13 | - | Labor |
| Makin (SA) | 3.18 | 5.17 | 3.18 | - | - | 76.64 | 11.82 | Labor |
| Scullin (VIC) | 3.26 | 5.30 | 10.61 | - | - | 80.82 | - | Labor |
| Gelibrand (VIC) | 3.28 | 5.32 | 7.10 | - | - | 84.31 | - | Labor |
| Corio (VIC) | 5.35 | 5.35 | 5.35 | - | - | 83.95 | - | Labor |
| Gorton (VIC) | 3.33 | 5.42 | 5.42 | - | - | 85.83 | - | Labor |
| Chifley (NSW) | 4.15 | 5.45 | 4.15 | - | - | 86.26 | - | Labor |
| Fenner (ACT) | 4.15 | 5.45 | 4.15 | - | - | 86.26 | - | Labor |
| Fremantle (WA) | 3.24 | 6.48 | 20.06 | - | - | 70.22 | - | Labor |
| Brand (WA) | 3.34 | 6.67 | 4.13 | - | - | 85.86 | - | Labor |
| Kingston (SA) | 3.22 | 6.98 | 3.22 | - | - | 76.12 | 10.47 | Labor |
| Whitlam (NSW) | 5.32 | 7.10 | 3.28 | - | - | 84.31 | - | Labor |
| Jagajaga (VIC) | 3.32 | 7.19 | 4.11 | - | - | 85.39 | - | Labor |
| Ballarat (VIC) | 3.32 | 7.19 | 4.11 | - | - | 85.39 | - | Labor |
| Hotham (VIC) | 3.32 | 7.19 | 4.11 | - | - | 85.39 | - | Labor |
| Holt (VIC) | 3.32 | 7.19 | 4.11 | - | - | 85.39 | - | Labor |
| Oxley (QLD) | 3.32 | 7.19 | 4.11 | - | - | 85.39 | - | Labor |
| Rankin (QLD) | 4.11 | 7.19 | 3.32 | - | - | 85.39 | - | Labor |
| Shortland (NSW) | 3.32 | 7.19 | 4.11 | - | - | 85.39 | - | Labor |
| Newcastle (NSW) | 5.11 | 7.24 | 4.14 | - | - | 83.52 | - | Labor |
| Canberra (ACT) | 3.34 | 7.24 | 3.34 | - | - | 86.07 | - | Labor |
| Hunter(NSW) | 3.34 | 7.24 | 3.34 | - | - | 86.07 | - | Labor |
| Blaxland (NSW) | 3.34 | 7.24 | 3.34 | - | - | 86.07 | - | Labor |
| Calwell (VIC) | 3.30 | 7.79 | 4.08 | - | - | 84.83 | - | Labor |
| Lalor (VIC) | 3.30 | 7.79 | 4.08 | - | - | 84.83 | - | Labor |
| Maribyrnong (VIC) | 3.30 | 7.79 | 4.08 | - | - | 84.83 | - | Labor |
| Werriwa (NSW) | 3.30 | 7.79 | 4.08 | - | - | 84.83 | - | Labor |
| McMahon (NSW) | 3.32 | 7.85 | 3.32 | - | - | 85.51 | - | Labor |
| Watson (NSW) | 3.32 | 7.85 | 3.32 | - | - | 85.51 | - | Labor |
| Moreton (QLD) | 3.16 | 9.65 | 3.91 | - | - | 78.15 | 5.13 | Labor |
| Kingsford Smith (NSW) | 3.21 | 9.81 | 7.58 | - | - | 79.40 | - | Labor |
| Isaacs (VIC) | 3.33 | 10.18 | 4.12 | - | - | 82.38 | - | Labor |
| Lilley (QLD) | 3.33 | 10.18 | 4.12 | - | - | 82.38 | - | Labor |
| Blair (QLD) | 3.35 | 10.26 | 3.35 | - | - | 83.04 | - | Labor |
| Barton (NSW) | 3.35 | 10.26 | 3.35 | - | - | 83.04 | - | Labor |
| Franklin (TAS) | 3.23 | 10.51 | 7.65 | - | - | 78.61 | - | Labor |
| Perth (WA) | 1.69 | 10.75 | 4.09 | - | - | 83.47 | - | Labor |
| Chisholm (VIC) | 3.35 | 13.39 | 4.14 | - | - | 79.12 | - | Labor |
| Bendigo (VIC) | 3.34 | 14.46 | 3.34 | - | - | 78.87 | - | Labor |
| Griffith (QLD) | 2.56 | 14.51 | 3.79 | - | - | 79.14 | - | Labor |
| Parramatta (NSW) | 3.24 | 16.86 | 3.24 | - | - | 76.65 | - | Labor |
| Bruce (VIC) | 3.24 | 16.86 | 3.24 | - | - | 76.65 | - | Labor |
| Greenway (NSW) | 3.29 | 17.10 | 3.29 | - | - | 76.33 | - | Labor |
| Richmond (NSW) | 3.34 | 19.32 | 17.39 | - | - | 59.95 | - | Labor |
| Kennedy (QLD) | 3.22 | 19.72 | 3.22 | - | 69.84 | 3.99 | - | KAP (Bob Katter) |
| Indi (VIC) | 3.08 | 20.64 | 1.57 | 69.69 | - | 5.01 | - | Independent |
| Adelaide (SA) | 3.21 | 20.85 | 3.97 | - | - | 62.71 | 9.27 | Labor |
| Paterson (NSW) | 5.05 | 22.91 | 3.30 | - | - | 68.73 | - | Labor |
| McEwen (VIC) | 3.35 | 25.59 | 4.14 | - | - | 66.92 | - | Labor |
| Lingiari (NT) | 4.81 | 27.59 | 3.94 | - | - | 63.66 | - | Labor |
| Capricornia (QLD) | 3.34 | 28.96 | 3.34 | - | - | 64.36 | - | Labor |
| Petrie (QLD) | 3.38 | 29.32 | 2.15 | - | - | 65.15 | - | Labor |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | 3.25 | 33.85 | 3.25 | - | - | 48.36 | 11.28 | Labor |
| Solomon (NT) | 3.33 | 34.68 | 3.33 | 0.86 | - | 57.80 | - | Labor |
| Dobell (NSW) | 2.61 | 35.54 | 2.61 | - | - | 59.23 | - | Labor |
| Burt (WA) | 2.68 | 40.45 | - | - | - | 56.88 | - | Labor |
| Macarthur (NSW) | 3.93 | 41.29 | 2.43 | - | - | 47.19 | 5.16 | Labor |
| Hasluck (WA) | 3.28 | 42.58 | 4.06 | - | - | 50.09 | - | Labor |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | 1.77 | 45.02 | 1.77 | - | - | 51.45 | - | Labor |
| Swan (WA) | 3.29 | 45.69 | 5.34 | - | - | 45.69 | - | Coalition, Labor |
| Deakin (VIC) | 3.27 | 48.57 | 5.67 | - | - | 42.50 | - | Coalition |
| Corangamite (VIC) | 3.32 | 49.37 | 4.11 | - | - | 43.20 | - | Coalition |
| Banks (NSW) | 3.32 | 49.37 | 4.11 | - | - | 43.20 | - | Coalition |
| Page (NSW) | 3.39 | 50.32 | 8.01 | - | - | 38.29 | - | Coalition |
| Robertson (NSW) | 2.35 | 50.81 | 11.40 | - | - | 35.45 | - | Coalition |
| Reid (NSW) | 3.26 | 52.07 | 3.26 | - | - | 41.40 | - | Coalition |
| Cowan (WA) | 3.40 | 52.98 | 3.40 | - | - | 40.22 | - | Coalition |
| Brisbane (QLD) | 3.32 | 53.31 | 4.11 | - | - | 39.26 | - | Coalition |
| La Trobe (Vic) | 3.33 | 54.09 | 4.12 | - | - | 38.46 | - | Coalition |
| Lindsay (NSW) | 3.12 | 54.12 | 3.87 | - | - | 33.82 | 5.07 | Coalition |
| Lyons (TAS) | 5.33 | 55.06 | 3.28 | - | - | 36.32 | - | Coalition |
| Macquarie (NSW) | 3.21 | 55.64 | 3.21 | - | - | 37.94 | - | Coalition |
| Bonner (QLD) | 3.26 | 56.58 | 3.26 | - | - | 36.90 | - | Coalition |
| Dunkley (VIC) | 2.20 | 57.21 | 2.92 | - | - | 37.67 | - | Coalition |
| Forde (QLD) | 3.36 | 58.30 | 3.36 | - | - | 34.98 | - | Coalition |
| Gilmore (NSW) | 2.78 | 59.43 | 3.31 | - | - | 34.47 | - | Coalition |
| Braddon (TAS) | 4.10 | 59.44 | 3.31 | - | - | 33.15 | - | Coalition |
| Stirling (WA) | 3.31 | 59.68 | 3.31 | - | - | 33.70 | - | Coalition |
| New England (NSW) | 3.08 | 61.62 | 3.08 | 29.13 | - | 3.08 | - | Coalition |
| Leichhardt (QLD) | 6.97 | 61.94 | 3.22 | - | - | 27.87 | - | Coalition |
| Dickson (QLD) | 3.34 | 64.36 | 3.34 | - | - | 28.96 | - | Coalition |
| Flynn (QLD) | 5.37 | 66.08 | 2.53 | - | - | 26.03 | - | Coalition |
| Herbert (QLD) | 4.17 | 67.42 | 3.37 | - | - | 25.04 | - | Coalition |
| Boothby (SA) | 3.18 | 68.86 | 3.18 | - | - | 11.02 | 13.77 | Coalition |
| Sturt (SA) | - | 69.52 | 3.07 | - | - | 11.42 | 15.99 | Coalition |
| Bass (TAS) | 3.36 | 69.96 | 3.36 | - | - | 23.32 | - | Coalition |
| Longman (QLD) | 3.31 | 71.82 | 3.31 | - | - | 21.55 | - | Coalition |
| Dawson (QLD) | 3.31 | 71.82 | 3.31 | - | - | 21.55 | - | Coalition |
| Pearce (WA) | 3.32 | 71.99 | 4.11 | - | - | 20.57 | - | Coalition |
| Higgins (VIC) | 3.22 | 72.78 | 11.16 | - | - | 5.23 | 7.61 | Coalition |
| Hinkler (QLD) | 5.68 | 74.02 | 3.27 | - | - | 17.03 | - | Coalition |
| Casey (VIC) | 3.33 | 74.07 | 3.33 | - | - | 19.26 | - | Coalition |
| Mayo (SA) | 3.90 | 74.44 | 2.64 | - | - | 2.64 | 16.38 | Coalition |
| Warringah (NSW) | 8.78 | 74.54 | 3.04 | - | - | 3.76 | 9.88 | Coalition |
| Bowman (QLD) | 5.12 | 75.70 | 3.35 | - | - | 15.83 | - | Coalition |
| Ryan (QLD) | 3.27 | 77.26 | 5.31 | - | - | 14.16 | - | Coalition |
| Grey (SA) | 3.05 | 77.64 | 3.05 | - | - | 11.31 | 4.95 | Coalition |
| Barker (SA) | 3.18 | 78.67 | 3.18 | - | - | 3.18 | 11.80 | Coalition |
| Canning (WA) | 3.34 | 78.87 | 3.34 | - | - | 14.46 | - | Coalition |
| Bennelong (NSW) | 3.34 | 78.87 | 3.34 | - | - | 14.46 | - | Coalition |
| Wide Bay (QLD) | 5.64 | 79.03 | 3.25 | - | - | 12.08 | - | Coalition |
| Fisher (QLD) | 5.12 | 79.13 | 4.14 | - | - | 11.61 | - | Coalition |
| Aston (VIC) | 2.48 | 80.24 | 3.24 | - | - | 14.04 | - | Coalition |
| Calare (NSW) | 6.82 | 81.02 | 3.15 | - | - | 3.90 | 5.11 | Coalition |
| Groom (QLD) | 6.96 | 82.65 | 3.21 | - | - | 3.21 | 3.97 | Coalition |
| Menzies (VIC) | 3.21 | 82.76 | 3.21 | 7.60 | - | 3.21 | - | Coalition |
| Cowper (NSW) | 7.69 | 83.77 | 3.25 | - | - | 5.29 | - | Coalition |
| Moncrieff (QLD) | 5.31 | 84.08 | 5.31 | - | - | 5.31 | - | Coalition |
| Cook (NSW) | 5.31 | 84.08 | 5.31 | - | - | 5.31 | - | Coalition |
| Mitchell (NSW) | 5.31 | 84.08 | 5.31 | - | - | 5.31 | - | Coalition |
| Wentworth (NSW) | 5.31 | 84.08 | 5.31 | - | - | 5.31 | - | Coalition |
| McMillan (VIC) | 4.11 | 84.71 | 3.32 | - | - | 7.85 | - | Coalition |
| Farrer (NSW) | 7.13 | 84.72 | 4.07 | - | - | 4.07 | - | Coalition |
| O'Connor (WA) | 5.38 | 85.15 | 4.10 | - | - | 5.38 | - | Coalition |
| Durack (WA) | 7.19 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 4.11 | - | Coalition |
| Mackellar (NSW) | - | 85.39 | 3.32 | 7.19 | - | 4.11 | - | Coalition |
| Tangney (WA) | - | 85.39 | 4.11 | 7.19 | - | 3.32 | - | Coalition |
| Riverina (NSW) | 7.19 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 4.11 | - | Coalition |
| Hughes (NSW) | 4.11 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 7.19 | - | Coalition |
| Mallee (VIC) | 7.19 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 4.11 | - | Coalition |
| Wannon (VIC) | 7.19 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 4.11 | - | Coalition |
| Flinders (VIC) | 4.11 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 7.19 | - | Coalition |
| Gippsland (VIC) | 7.19 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 4.11 | - | Coalition |
| Bradfield (NSW) | 4.11 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 7.19 | - | Coalition |
| McPherson (QLD) | 4.11 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 7.19 | - | Coalition |
| Maranoa (QLD) | 7.19 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 4.11 | - | Coalition |
| Moore (WA) | 4.11 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 7.19 | - | Coalition |
| Forrest (WA) | 4.11 | 85.39 | 3.32 | - | - | 7.19 | - | Coalition |
| Fadden (QLD) | 5.42 | 85.83 | 3.33 | - | - | 5.42 | - | Coalition |
| Curtin (WA) | 3.33 | 85.83 | 5.42 | - | - | 5.42 | - | Coalition |
| Wright (QLD) | 4.13 | 85.86 | 3.34 | - | - | 6.67 | - | Coalition |
| Fairfax (QLD) | 3.34 | 86.07 | 3.34 | - | - | 7.24 | - | Coalition |
| Berowra (NSW) | 3.34 | 86.07 | 3.34 | - | - | 7.24 | - | Coalition |
| Parkes (NSW) | 7.24 | 86.07 | 3.34 | - | - | 3.34 | - | Coalition |
| Lyne (NSW) | 7.24 | 86.07 | 3.34 | - | - | 3.34 | - | Coalition |
| Kooyong (VIC) | 3.34 | 86.07 | 3.34 | - | - | 7.24 | - | Coalition |
| North Sydney (NSW) | 4.15 | 86.26 | 4.15 | - | - | 5.45 | - | Coalition |
| Hume (NSW) | 4.17 | 86.63 | 3.37 | - | - | 5.83 | - | Coalition |
| Goldstein (VIC) | 3.37 | 86.75 | 2.58 | - | - | 7.30 | - | Coalition |
| Murray (VIC) | 5.00 | 88.11 | 3.08 | - | - | 3.81 | - | Coalition |
Greens in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)
| % | Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team | 2016 Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | ||||||||
| Grayndler (NSW) | 3.30 | 5.05 | 25.62 | - | - | 66.03 | - | Labor |
| Batman (VIC) | 3.34 | 3.34 | 28.96 | - | - | 64.36 | - | Labor |
| Melbourne (VIC) | 3.35 | 4.14 | 82.85 | - | - | 9.67 | - | Green |
Xenophon Team in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)
| % | Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team | 2016 Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate |
Independent in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)
| % | Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team | 2016 Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | ||||||||
| New England (NSW) | 3.08 | 61.62 | 3.08 | 29.13 | - | 3.08 | - | Coalition |
| Indi (VIC) | 3.08 | 20.64 | 1.57 | 69.69 | - | 5.01 | - | Independent |
| Denison (TAS) | 3.18 | 3.94 | 3.94 | 75.17 | - | 13.78 | - | Independent |
Seats with competing odds on Coalition members
| % | Any Other | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Liberal | National | Nick Xenophon Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | ||||||||
| Murray (VIC) | 5.00 | 3.08 | - | - | 3.81 | 38.10 | 50.01 | - |
| Indi (VIC) | 3.08 | 1.57 | 69.69 | - | 5.01 | 7.29 | 13.36 | - |
Seats where the 2016 Favorite suggests it might change from one party to another at the 2016 election.
| TPP 2013 | TCP 2013 | 2013 Outcome | 2016 Favourite | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seat | ||||
| Burt (WA) | LIB 6.1% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Capricornia (QLD) | LNP 0.8% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | LIB 2.9% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Fairfax (QLD) | - | PUP 0.03% v LNP | Palmer United | Coalition |
| Hasluck (WA) | LIB 6.0% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | LIB 1.9% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Macarthur (NSW) | LIB 3.3% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Petrie (QLD) | LNP 0.5% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Solomon (NT) | CLP 1.4% | - | Coalition | Labor |
| Swan (WA) | LIB 7.3% | - | Coalition | Coalition, Labor |
Close seats (ie. seats with the favorite on a probability of less than 60 per cent).
| % | Any Other | Coalition | Green | Independent | KAP (Bob Katter) | Labor | Nick Xenophon Team | 2016 Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | ||||||||
| Richmond (NSW) | 3.34 | 19.32 | 17.39 | - | - | 59.95 | - | Labor |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | 3.25 | 33.85 | 3.25 | - | - | 48.36 | 11.28 | Labor |
| Solomon (NT) | 3.33 | 34.68 | 3.33 | 0.86 | - | 57.80 | - | Labor |
| Dobell (NSW) | 2.61 | 35.54 | 2.61 | - | - | 59.23 | - | Labor |
| Burt (WA) | 2.68 | 40.45 | - | - | - | 56.88 | - | Labor |
| Macarthur (NSW) | 3.93 | 41.29 | 2.43 | - | - | 47.19 | 5.16 | Labor |
| Hasluck (WA) | 3.28 | 42.58 | 4.06 | - | - | 50.09 | - | Labor |
| Eden Monaro (NSW) | 1.77 | 45.02 | 1.77 | - | - | 51.45 | - | Labor |
| Swan (WA) | 3.29 | 45.69 | 5.34 | - | - | 45.69 | - | Coalition, Labor |
| Deakin (VIC) | 3.27 | 48.57 | 5.67 | - | - | 42.50 | - | Coalition |
| Corangamite (VIC) | 3.32 | 49.37 | 4.11 | - | - | 43.20 | - | Coalition |
| Banks (NSW) | 3.32 | 49.37 | 4.11 | - | - | 43.20 | - | Coalition |
| Page (NSW) | 3.39 | 50.32 | 8.01 | - | - | 38.29 | - | Coalition |
| Robertson (NSW) | 2.35 | 50.81 | 11.40 | - | - | 35.45 | - | Coalition |
| Reid (NSW) | 3.26 | 52.07 | 3.26 | - | - | 41.40 | - | Coalition |
| Cowan (WA) | 3.40 | 52.98 | 3.40 | - | - | 40.22 | - | Coalition |
| Brisbane (QLD) | 3.32 | 53.31 | 4.11 | - | - | 39.26 | - | Coalition |
| La Trobe (Vic) | 3.33 | 54.09 | 4.12 | - | - | 38.46 | - | Coalition |
| Lindsay (NSW) | 3.12 | 54.12 | 3.87 | - | - | 33.82 | 5.07 | Coalition |
| Lyons (TAS) | 5.33 | 55.06 | 3.28 | - | - | 36.32 | - | Coalition |
| Macquarie (NSW) | 3.21 | 55.64 | 3.21 | - | - | 37.94 | - | Coalition |
| Bonner (QLD) | 3.26 | 56.58 | 3.26 | - | - | 36.90 | - | Coalition |
| Dunkley (VIC) | 2.20 | 57.21 | 2.92 | - | - | 37.67 | - | Coalition |
| Forde (QLD) | 3.36 | 58.30 | 3.36 | - | - | 34.98 | - | Coalition |
| Gilmore (NSW) | 2.78 | 59.43 | 3.31 | - | - | 34.47 | - | Coalition |
| Braddon (TAS) | 4.10 | 59.44 | 3.31 | - | - | 33.15 | - | Coalition |
| Stirling (WA) | 3.31 | 59.68 | 3.31 | - | - | 33.70 | - | Coalition |
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