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Friday, June 24, 2016

Mea Culpa

In changing the algorithm I use to correct for the longshot bias in the bookmaker's odds, I discovered that I had a coding error in the original approach. I had my steps out of order. After reducing to zero all probabilities less than 15 per cent, I then summed the probabilities and normalised to a Parliament of 150 seats. What I should have done was normalise seats individually and then sum. Having the steps in the wrong order produced slightly different results.

The corrected pandas/python code for the original approach is as follows. This code snip starts with a pandas DataFrame (ps), which has the probabilities for each party (columns) in each electorate (rows) expressed as a percentage between 0 and 100. At the end of the code snippet, ps contains the adjusted probabilities in the range 0..1. The columns in the ps DataFrame can then be summed to get seat projections based on the collective wisdom of punters. 

    adjusted_probability_threshold  = 15.0
    mask = (ps >= adjusted_probability_threshold)    
    ps = ps.where(mask, other=0.0) # less than threshold is set to zero
    ps = ps.div(other=ps.sum(axis=1), axis='index') # normalise the remaining data

The reason I wanted to change my treatment of the longshot bias is that this approach introduces "cliffs" into the data. A win probability of 15.0 is set to zero, whereas 15.1 is initially unadjustsed (as a percentage), and would be increased if any other minor contender is set to zero. It is not good that such a minor difference in input data results in different outputs.

The replacement code (below) removes the cliff effect and smooths the treatment of the longshot bias. Between 0 and 12.5% the probability is  mapped to zero, while between 12.5% and 25% it is mapped to the range 0 to 25%. If we take our example above: 15.0 would be mapped to 5% and 15.1 would be mapped to 5.2%.

    adjusted_probability_threshold  = 12.5
    mask_lower = ps > adjusted_probability_threshold
    ps = ps.where(mask_lower, other=0.0) # less than threshold is zero
    mask_upper =  ((ps <= adjusted_probability_threshold) | 
        (ps >= (adjusted_probability_threshold * 2.0)))
    ps = ps.where(mask_upper, other=((ps - adjusted_probability_threshold) * 2.0))
    ps = ps.div(other=ps.sum(axis=1), axis='index') # normalise the remaining data

This change in approach reduces slightly the number of seats attributed to other parties (reasonably, I would argue). The (relatively minor) difference in approach can be seen in the following tables and charts.

Original (corrected) approach to the longshot bias

Seat probabilities adjusted for the longshot bias for Friday June 24, 2016.
Any Other Coalition Green Ind Katter Labor NXT
Adelaide (SA) 0.0 0.282596 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.717404 0.0
Aston (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ballarat (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Banks (NSW) 0.0 0.664255 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.335745 0.0
Barker (SA) 0.0 0.689651 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.310349
Barton (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Bass (TAS) 0.0 0.749973 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.250027 0.0
Batman (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.43551 0.0 0.0 0.564490 0.0
Bendigo (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Bennelong (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Berowra (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Blair (QLD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Blaxland (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Bonner (QLD) 0.0 0.781299 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.218701 0.0
Boothby (SA) 0.0 0.689620 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.310380
Bowman (QLD) 0.0 0.845099 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.154901 0.0
Braddon (TAS) 0.0 0.733712 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.266288 0.0
Bradfield (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brand (WA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Brisbane (QLD) 0.0 0.625000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.375000 0.0
Bruce (VIC) 0.0 0.227793 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.772207 0.0
Burt (WA) 0.0 0.347857 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.652143 0.0
Calare (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Calwell (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Canberra (ACT) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Canning (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capricornia (QLD) 0.0 0.375000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.625000 0.0
Casey (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chifley (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Chisholm (VIC) 0.0 0.282652 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.717348 0.0
Cook (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Corangamite (VIC) 0.0 0.813010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.186990 0.0
Corio (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Cowan (WA) 0.0 0.466639 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.533361 0.0
Cowper (NSW) 0.0 0.766332 0.0 0.233668 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cunningham (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Curtin (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dawson (QLD) 0.0 0.773735 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.226265 0.0
Deakin (VIC) 0.0 0.689662 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.310338 0.0
Denison (TAS) 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dickson (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dobell (NSW) 0.0 0.186964 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.813036 0.0
Dunkley (VIC) 0.0 0.625013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.374987 0.0
Durack (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eden Monaro (NSW) 0.0 0.266272 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.733728 0.0
Fadden (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fairfax (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Farrer (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fenner (ACT) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Fisher (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Flinders (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Flynn (QLD) 0.0 0.777778 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.222222 0.0
Forde (QLD) 0.0 0.625013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.374987 0.0
Forrest (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fowler (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Franklin (TAS) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Fremantle (WA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Gellibrand (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Gilmore (NSW) 0.0 0.565762 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.434238 0.0
Gippsland (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Goldstein (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gorton (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Grayndler (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Greenway (NSW) 0.0 0.223331 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.776669 0.0
Grey (SA) 0.0 0.662669 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.337331
Griffith (QLD) 0.0 0.222222 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.777778 0.0
Groom (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hasluck (WA) 0.0 0.662624 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.337376 0.0
Herbert (QLD) 0.0 0.813022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.186978 0.0
Higgins (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hindmarsh (SA) 0.0 0.535405 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.247784 0.216811
Hinkler (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Holt (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Hotham (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Hughes (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hume (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hunter (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Indi (VIC) 0.0 0.228556 0.0 0.771444 0.0 0.0 0.0
Isaacs (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Jagajaga (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Kennedy (QLD) 0.0 0.186981 0.0 0.0 0.813019 0.0 0.0
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Kingston (SA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.812974 0.187026
Kooyong (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Trobe (Vic) 0.0 0.625000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.375000 0.0
Lalor (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Leichhardt (QLD) 0.0 0.812991 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.187009 0.0
Lilley (QLD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Lindsay (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lingiari (NT) 0.0 0.233758 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.766242 0.0
Longman (QLD) 0.0 0.769275 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.230725 0.0
Lyne (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lyons (TAS) 0.0 0.578953 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.421047 0.0
Macarthur (NSW) 0.0 0.367097 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.632903 0.0
Mackellar (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Macquarie (NSW) 0.0 0.612232 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.387768 0.0
Makin (SA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.813038 0.186962
Mallee (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Maranoa (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Maribyrnong (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Mayo (SA) 0.0 0.466624 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.533376
McEwen (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
McMahon (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
McMillan (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
McPherson (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Melbourne (VIC) 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Menzies (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mitchell (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Moncrieff (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Moore (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Moreton (QLD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Murray (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New England (NSW) 0.0 0.733713 0.0 0.266287 0.0 0.0 0.0
Newcastle (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
North Sydney (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
O'Connor (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oxley (QLD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Page (NSW) 0.0 0.206353 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.793647 0.0
Parkes (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Parramatta (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Paterson (NSW) 0.0 0.250000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.750000 0.0
Pearce (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Perth (WA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Petrie (QLD) 0.0 0.264728 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.735272 0.0
Port Adelaide (SA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.830802 0.169198
Rankin (QLD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Reid (NSW) 0.0 0.750000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.250000 0.0
Richmond (NSW) 0.0 0.186994 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.813006 0.0
Riverina (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Robertson (NSW) 0.0 0.750027 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.249973 0.0
Ryan (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Scullin (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Shortland (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Solomon (NT) 0.0 0.392383 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.607617 0.0
Stirling (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sturt (SA) 0.0 0.813043 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.186957
Swan (WA) 0.0 0.650026 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.349974 0.0
Sydney (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Tangney (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wakefield (SA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.813038 0.186962
Wannon (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Warringah (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Watson (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Wentworth (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Werriwa (NSW) 0.0 0.233686 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.766314 0.0
Whitlam (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Wide Bay (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wills (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.18699 0.0 0.0 0.813010 0.0
Wright (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


Tally of seats by party and date, adjusted for the longshot bias.
Any Other Coalition Green Ind Katter Labor NXT
2016-05-12 0.0 75.195273 2.566901 2.043224 0.779812 69.047438 0.367352
2016-05-13 0.0 75.195273 2.566901 2.043224 0.779812 69.047438 0.367352
2016-05-14 0.0 75.195273 2.566901 2.043224 0.779812 69.047438 0.367352
2016-05-15 0.0 75.124340 2.566901 2.043224 0.779812 69.118370 0.367352
2016-05-16 0.0 75.392056 2.566901 2.043224 0.779812 68.850655 0.367352
2016-05-17 0.0 75.655385 2.566901 2.043224 0.779812 68.587326 0.367352
2016-05-18 0.0 75.680317 2.566901 2.130476 0.779812 68.475141 0.367352
2016-05-19 0.0 75.703136 2.566901 2.130476 0.779812 68.452322 0.367352
2016-05-20 0.0 75.563471 2.566901 2.130476 0.779812 68.591988 0.367352
2016-05-21 0.0 75.601450 2.566901 2.092496 0.779812 68.591988 0.367352
2016-05-22 0.0 75.644268 2.566901 2.092496 0.779812 68.549170 0.367352
2016-05-23 0.0 75.671392 2.566901 2.092496 0.779812 68.522046 0.367352
2016-05-24 0.0 75.889485 2.566901 2.092496 0.779812 68.303953 0.367352
2016-05-25 0.0 75.945909 2.566901 2.092496 0.779812 68.247528 0.367352
2016-05-26 0.0 75.945909 2.781549 2.092496 0.779812 68.032880 0.367352
2016-05-27 0.0 76.197852 2.881571 2.129533 0.779812 67.830875 0.180357
2016-05-28 0.0 76.255035 2.881566 2.096131 0.779812 67.807099 0.180357
2016-05-29 0.0 76.409365 2.881566 2.096131 0.779812 67.652770 0.180357
2016-05-30 0.0 76.409365 2.881566 2.096131 0.779812 67.652770 0.180357
2016-05-31 0.0 76.742906 2.881566 2.096131 0.779812 67.319228 0.180357
2016-06-01 0.0 76.678365 2.881566 2.096131 0.779812 67.360575 0.203551
2016-06-02 0.0 76.348492 2.701231 2.096131 1.0 67.604174 0.249972
2016-06-03 0.0 76.073106 2.331752 2.096151 1.0 68.232700 0.266291
2016-06-04 0.0 76.145803 2.357565 2.096151 1.0 67.965053 0.435429
2016-06-05 0.0 76.145803 2.357565 2.096151 1.0 67.965053 0.435429
2016-06-06 0.0 76.145803 2.357565 2.096151 1.0 67.965053 0.435429
2016-06-07 0.0 76.145864 2.304576 2.096090 1.0 68.018042 0.435429
2016-06-08 0.0 75.941004 2.304576 2.096090 1.0 67.831055 0.827275
2016-06-09 0.0 75.941004 2.299845 2.096090 1.0 67.835786 0.827275
2016-06-10 0.0 76.607274 2.299845 2.054015 1.0 67.211591 0.827275
2016-06-11 0.0 76.406800 2.299845 2.054015 1.0 67.145810 1.093530
2016-06-12 0.0 76.406800 2.299845 2.054015 1.0 67.145810 1.093530
2016-06-13 0.0 76.379123 1.664033 2.054015 1.0 67.778138 1.124691
2016-06-14 0.0 76.892741 1.664033 2.054015 1.0 67.264520 1.124691
2016-06-15 0.0 77.157314 1.433240 2.054015 1.0 67.417728 0.937703
2016-06-16 0.0 77.159614 1.433240 2.054015 1.0 67.411565 0.941566
2016-06-17 0.0 76.794586 1.433213 2.260436 1.0 67.539037 0.972728
2016-06-18 0.0 76.891737 1.433213 2.260436 1.0 67.373838 1.040776
2016-06-19 0.0 77.598674 1.433213 2.260436 1.0 66.495454 1.212223
2016-06-20 0.0 77.483577 1.433213 2.260436 1.0 66.610550 1.212223
2016-06-21 0.0 77.302220 1.459842 2.288182 1.0 66.314220 1.635536
2016-06-22 0.0 77.299690 1.832370 2.315490 0.813019 65.114111 2.625320
2016-06-23 0.0 77.027197 1.622501 2.315490 0.813019 65.596473 2.625320
2016-06-24 0.0 77.082381 1.622500 2.271399 0.813019 65.585348 2.625353


Updated approach to the longshot bias

Seat probabilities adjusted for the longshot bias for Friday June 24, 2016.
Any Other Coalition Green Ind Katter Labor NXT
Adelaide (SA) 0.0 0.282515 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.717485 0.0
Aston (VIC) 0.0 0.963234 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.036766 0.0
Ballarat (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Banks (NSW) 0.0 0.664255 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.335745 0.0
Barker (SA) 0.0 0.689651 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.310349
Barton (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Bass (TAS) 0.0 0.763998 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.236002 0.0
Batman (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.435510 0.0 0.0 0.564490 0.0
Bendigo (VIC) 0.0 0.054294 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.945706 0.0
Bennelong (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Berowra (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Blair (QLD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Blaxland (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Bonner (QLD) 0.0 0.816215 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.183785 0.0
Boothby (SA) 0.0 0.689620 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.310380
Bowman (QLD) 0.0 0.941879 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.058121 0.0
Braddon (TAS) 0.0 0.738548 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.261452 0.0
Bradfield (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brand (WA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Brisbane (QLD) 0.0 0.625000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.375000 0.0
Bruce (VIC) 0.0 0.202064 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.797936 0.0
Burt (WA) 0.0 0.347857 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.652143 0.0
Calare (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Calwell (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Canberra (ACT) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Canning (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capricornia (QLD) 0.0 0.375000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.625000 0.0
Casey (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chifley (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Chisholm (VIC) 0.0 0.282652 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.717348 0.0
Cook (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Corangamite (VIC) 0.0 0.878418 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.121582 0.0
Corio (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Cowan (WA) 0.0 0.466639 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.533361 0.0
Cowper (NSW) 0.0 0.792647 0.0 0.207353 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cunningham (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Curtin (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dawson (QLD) 0.0 0.805077 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.194923 0.0
Deakin (VIC) 0.0 0.689662 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.310338 0.0
Denison (TAS) 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dickson (QLD) 0.0 0.947972 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.052028 0.0
Dobell (NSW) 0.0 0.121425 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.878575 0.0
Dunkley (VIC) 0.0 0.625013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.374987 0.0
Durack (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eden Monaro (NSW) 0.0 0.266272 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.733728 0.0
Fadden (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fairfax (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Farrer (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fenner (ACT) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Fisher (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Flinders (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Flynn (QLD) 0.0 0.827235 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.172765 0.0
Forde (QLD) 0.0 0.625013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.374987 0.0
Forrest (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fowler (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Franklin (TAS) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Fremantle (WA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Gellibrand (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Gilmore (NSW) 0.0 0.565762 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.434238 0.0
Gippsland (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Goldstein (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gorton (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Grayndler (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Greenway (NSW) 0.0 0.191673 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.808327 0.0
Grey (SA) 0.0 0.662669 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.337331
Griffith (QLD) 0.0 0.174760 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.825240 0.0
Groom (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hasluck (WA) 0.0 0.662624 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.337376 0.0
Herbert (QLD) 0.0 0.898491 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.101509 0.0
Higgins (VIC) 0.0 0.957520 0.042480 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hindmarsh (SA) 0.0 0.575347 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.245610 0.179043
Hinkler (QLD) 0.0 0.962857 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.037143 0.0
Holt (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Hotham (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Hughes (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hume (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hunter (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Indi (VIC) 0.0 0.197396 0.0 0.802604 0.0 0.0 0.0
Isaacs (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Jagajaga (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Kennedy (QLD) 0.0 0.117321 0.0 0.0 0.882679 0.0 0.0
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Kingston (SA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.894969 0.105031
Kooyong (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Trobe (Vic) 0.0 0.625000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.375000 0.0
Lalor (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Leichhardt (QLD) 0.0 0.900693 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.099307 0.0
Lilley (QLD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Lindsay (NSW) 0.0 0.963493 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.036507 0.0
Lingiari (NT) 0.0 0.208726 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.791274 0.0
Longman (QLD) 0.0 0.818384 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.181616 0.0
Lyne (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lyons (TAS) 0.0 0.578953 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.421047 0.0
Macarthur (NSW) 0.0 0.367097 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.632903 0.0
Mackellar (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Macquarie (NSW) 0.0 0.612232 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.387768 0.0
Makin (SA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.899349 0.100651
Mallee (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Maranoa (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Maribyrnong (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Mayo (SA) 0.0 0.466624 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.533376
McEwen (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
McMahon (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
McMillan (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
McPherson (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Melbourne (VIC) 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Menzies (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mitchell (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Moncrieff (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Moore (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Moreton (QLD) 0.0 0.017645 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.982355 0.0
Murray (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New England (NSW) 0.0 0.739217 0.0 0.260783 0.0 0.0 0.0
Newcastle (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
North Sydney (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
O'Connor (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oxley (QLD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Page (NSW) 0.0 0.158751 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.841249 0.0
Parkes (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Parramatta (NSW) 0.0 0.049324 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.950676 0.0
Paterson (NSW) 0.0 0.237222 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.762778 0.0
Pearce (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Perth (WA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Petrie (QLD) 0.0 0.261387 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.738613 0.0
Port Adelaide (SA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.931386 0.068614
Rankin (QLD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Reid (NSW) 0.0 0.756413 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.243587 0.0
Richmond (NSW) 0.0 0.106149 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.893851 0.0
Riverina (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Robertson (NSW) 0.0 0.765315 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.234685 0.0
Ryan (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Scullin (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Shortland (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Solomon (NT) 0.0 0.392383 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.607617 0.0
Stirling (WA) 0.0 0.945706 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.054294 0.0
Sturt (SA) 0.0 0.906028 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.093972
Swan (WA) 0.0 0.650026 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.349974 0.0
Sydney (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Tangney (WA) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wakefield (SA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.899349 0.100651
Wannon (VIC) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Warringah (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Watson (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Wentworth (NSW) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Werriwa (NSW) 0.0 0.215466 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.784534 0.0
Whitlam (NSW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Wide Bay (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wills (VIC) 0.0 0.0 0.121582 0.0 0.0 0.878418 0.0
Wright (QLD) 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Tally of seats by party and date, adjusted for the longshot bias.
Any Other Coalition Green Ind Katter Labor NXT
2016-05-12 0.0 75.285787 2.255564 2.010289 0.828666 69.371796 0.247897
2016-05-13 0.0 75.285787 2.255564 2.010289 0.828666 69.371796 0.247897
2016-05-14 0.0 75.285787 2.255564 2.010289 0.828666 69.371796 0.247897
2016-05-15 0.0 75.214855 2.255564 2.010289 0.828666 69.442729 0.247897
2016-05-16 0.0 75.482570 2.255564 2.010289 0.828666 69.175013 0.247897
2016-05-17 0.0 75.745899 2.255564 2.010289 0.828666 68.911684 0.247897
2016-05-18 0.0 75.731705 2.255564 2.136669 0.828666 68.799499 0.247897
2016-05-19 0.0 75.754524 2.255564 2.136669 0.828666 68.776680 0.247897
2016-05-20 0.0 75.575638 2.255564 2.136669 0.828666 68.955566 0.247897
2016-05-21 0.0 75.613618 2.255564 2.098689 0.828666 68.955566 0.247897
2016-05-22 0.0 75.656436 2.255564 2.098689 0.828666 68.912748 0.247897
2016-05-23 0.0 75.694486 2.255564 2.098689 0.828666 68.874698 0.247897
2016-05-24 0.0 75.842328 2.255564 2.098689 0.828666 68.726856 0.247897
2016-05-25 0.0 75.898752 2.255564 2.098689 0.828666 68.670432 0.247897
2016-05-26 0.0 75.898752 2.470212 2.098689 0.828666 68.455783 0.247897
2016-05-27 0.0 76.103881 2.570234 2.135726 0.828666 68.187647 0.173846
2016-05-28 0.0 76.161064 2.565530 2.102324 0.828666 68.168570 0.173846
2016-05-29 0.0 76.315393 2.565530 2.102324 0.828666 68.014241 0.173846
2016-05-30 0.0 76.315393 2.565530 2.102324 0.828666 68.014241 0.173846
2016-05-31 0.0 76.389087 2.565530 2.102324 0.828666 67.940547 0.173846
2016-06-01 0.0 76.456967 2.565530 2.102324 0.828666 67.825419 0.221094
2016-06-02 0.0 76.015262 2.473347 2.102324 1.0 68.099913 0.309155
2016-06-03 0.0 75.772743 2.287680 2.102343 1.0 68.498784 0.338449
2016-06-04 0.0 75.834064 2.388496 2.135278 1.0 68.269113 0.373049
2016-06-05 0.0 75.834064 2.388496 2.135278 1.0 68.269113 0.373049
2016-06-06 0.0 75.834064 2.388496 2.135278 1.0 68.269113 0.373049
2016-06-07 0.0 75.842092 2.281834 2.127250 1.0 68.375776 0.373049
2016-06-08 0.0 75.703407 2.281834 2.127250 1.0 68.273084 0.614425
2016-06-09 0.0 75.750756 2.277103 2.127250 1.0 68.230467 0.614425
2016-06-10 0.0 76.330986 2.277103 2.085175 1.0 67.692311 0.614425
2016-06-11 0.0 76.096734 2.277103 2.126152 1.0 67.626530 0.873481
2016-06-12 0.0 76.096734 2.277103 2.126152 1.0 67.626530 0.873481
2016-06-13 0.0 76.045316 1.603666 2.126152 1.0 68.318245 0.906621
2016-06-14 0.0 76.600312 1.603666 2.126152 1.0 67.763249 0.906621
2016-06-15 0.0 77.035556 1.451383 2.126152 1.0 67.582979 0.803930
2016-06-16 0.0 77.055971 1.451383 2.126152 1.0 67.563239 0.803255
2016-06-17 0.0 76.898093 1.445724 2.240585 1.0 67.573984 0.841614
2016-06-18 0.0 77.044370 1.445724 2.240585 1.0 67.359658 0.909662
2016-06-19 0.0 77.819110 1.445724 2.240585 1.0 66.361514 1.133067
2016-06-20 0.0 77.704014 1.445724 2.240585 1.0 66.476610 1.133067
2016-06-21 0.0 77.565649 1.494020 2.268331 1.0 66.311300 1.360700
2016-06-22 0.0 77.322504 1.757358 2.320336 0.882679 65.541414 2.175710
2016-06-23 0.0 77.038748 1.599573 2.320336 0.882679 65.982955 2.175710
2016-06-24 0.0 77.190811 1.599572 2.270740 0.882679 65.916801 2.139397


Comparison of the sum for today


Any Other Coalition Green Ind Katter Labor NXT
2016-06-24 Original 0.0 77.082381 1.622500 2.271399 0.813019 65.585348 2.625353
2016-06-24 Updated 0.0 77.190811 1.599572 2.270740 0.882679 65.916801 2.139397
at

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