This morning, the betting market had a Labor government at an 78% probability after the election.
The individual seat market thinks the most likely new Parliament will have Labor with the most seats, but not enough for it to form majority government. Over the course of the election campaign, Labor has improved its position in the eyes of punters by five seats, and the Coalition has declined by five seats.
In aggregate, the opinion polls have Labor on 51.8 per cent of the two party preferred vote (2pp).
My current best estimate is that Labor will slightly under-perform its 2022 benchmark,
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