Day 25 - 2025 Federal Election

We have another Newspoll, in which Labor has a two-party preferred (2pp) vote share of 52 per cent (which is the same result as the previous two Newspolls). This is effectively the same result as the previous election (52.13 per cent for Labor). When I aggregate the pollster estimates, I get 51.9 per cent for Labor. 

While I prefer using the pollster estimates, if I apply preference flows from the last election to the primary vote polls, I get a 2pp estimate of 52.2 per cent in Labor's favour.

Turning to first preference primary votes (noting that Other below includes One Nation). 

We can see the current aggregations are very close to the 2022 election result.