Yesterday Roy Morgan published a new poll with Labor on 55.5 per cent of the two-party preferred (2pp) vote. If repeated at an election, this would be a huge and historic landslide win for Labor. However, in recent months Morgan has been substantially more favourable to Labor than other pollsters, and as a consequence this poll result has had little impact on my polling aggregate, which now has Labor on 52 per cent of the two-party preferred vote (ie. if the polls and aggregation are correct, we are looking at an outcome similar to the 2022 election).
I also look at the primary votes if we apply a crude preference flow from the previous election.
And this has Labor on 52.4 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, slightly better than Labor's performance at the last election.
The overall betting market has not moved much in the pas couple of days.
And punters still are seeing a minority government.
No comments:
Post a Comment