Day 17 - 2025 Federal Election

 Not a lot to report today. The betting market sees it much as it did yesterday.

Day 16 - 2025 Federal Election

Today the individual seats market has Labor ahead (the favourite) in 75 seats.  But the sum of probabilities suggest that Labor most likely will only win 71 seats (after giving Labor and the Coalition one each from the "any other candidate" grouping, which remains overstated even after treating the odds to partially correct for the favourite-longshot bias problem). 

Day 15 - 2025 Federal Election

Today a YouGov poll was released. It had Labor on 52.5 per cent of the two party preferred vote share: a better result for Labor than the 2022 election. This poll is up 1.5 percentage points on the previous YouGov poll from two weeks ago. Of the 10 polls released since the election was called, Labor has been the winner in eight, one was a tie and one had the Coalition ahead. 

Day 14 - 2025 Federal Election

I want to talk about "Others", but first a quick look at the betting market, which now has the probability of a Labor win at 76 per cent. The odds are $4.00 (for the Coalition) and $1.26 (Labor).

Day 13 - 2025 Federal Election

Today, let's look the complete set of charts from the individual seats market. Overall, we can see another net seat with Labor in the lead. The two seats that were tied yesterday (McEwan and Robertson) have bounced to a Labor lead.

Day 12 - 2025 Federal Election

Yesterday a Roy Morgan poll was released that had Labor on 53.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. Morgan may have changed its polling approach in February 2025. Historically, their polls have been around the trend of the other polling firms. Now they appear to be consistently above the trend output from other pollsters. Out of an abundance of caution, I have set the post 15 February 2025 polls from Roy Morgan as a new series. Of note, while the earlier Morgan series tracks pretty close to the aggregation, the later Morgan polls track 2.2 percentage points more favourable to Labor on average than the aggregation. Overall, this change moves the aggregation around 0.3 percentage points less favourable to Labor.

Day 11 - 2025 Federal Election

Yesterday brought us a new Newspoll: 52 to 48 in Labor's favour in two party preferred terms. If repeated at an election, this would deliver a similar result to the 2022 election. Adding the latest Newspoll to my Gaussian Random Walk (GRW) Bayesian model to aggregate polls, it looks like Labor leads with around 51 to 49 per cent of the two party preferred vote. If replicated at an election, this is most likely to result in a minority Labor government.

Day 10 - 2025 Federal Election

Twenty-seven days until the election on 3 May. The punters are firming on Labor winning this election.

Day 9 - Federal Election 2025

As we wake up this morning, China has retaliated to the Trump tariffs, the S&P500 is down 17.5 per cent on its February peak (down six per cent overnight) and the Australian dollar is trading at 60 cents. The Trump gloss is starting to peel off and in the process it is hurting the Coalition.

Labor continues to push ahead in the betting market. The odds at 7am this morning (my daily collection time) were Labor on $1.53 and the Coalition on $2.50. As I write now at 8.30am, it is $1.50 and $2.62. The odds have flipped from where they were just three weeks ago. The chart is from 7am this morning.

Day 8 - 2025 Federal Election - Betting Market

What fun we have when the betting market provider introduces multiple independents into seats. I needed a quick recode to capture this situation. The affected seats were Monash in Victoria (Deb Leonard and Russell Broadbent) and Calare in NSW (Andrew Gee and Kate Hook).

More importantly, there was some movement on both the overall winner charts and the individual seat charts. Both movements were in Labor's favour. 

Overall winner

Day 7 - The 2025 Federal Election

Let's look at the steps between the election having been called and the election being all wrapped up.

Date	Event
Parliament prorogued	8.29am 28 March 2025
House of Representatives dissolved	8.30am 28 March 2025
Issue of writs for the election	31 March 2025
Close of electoral rolls	8pm 7 April 2025
Close of nominations	12 noon 10 April 2025
Declaration of nominations	11 April 2025
Start of early voting	22 April 2025
Close of postal voting applications	6pm 30 April 2025
Election day	8am to 6pm 3 May 2025
The return of writs	No later than 9 July 2025
The new Parliament will first sit	Within 30 days of the return of writs

The next critical day on this schedule is to ensure you are enrolled to vote before the electoral rolls close on Monday 7 April 2025. Early voting starts on 22 April. Election day is Saturday 3 May 2025. 

Day 6 - 2025 Federal Election

The betting market has Labor slightly ahead to form government, with odds of $1.72 for Labor to the Coalition's $2.10.  And I should note that I have updated my daily collection time for these odds from lunch time to breakfast. 

Day 5 - 2025 Federal Election

Yesterday's polls were plentiful. Roy Morgan had Labor on 53 per cent of the two party preferred vote (unchanged on its previous print a fortnight ago). Newspoll had Labor at 51 per cent (up 2 on three weeks ago). Resolve Strategic had Labor on 50 per cent (up 5 from mid February) and Freshwater Strategy had Labor on 49 per cent  (unchanged from a fortnight ago).

As a consequence, all of my polling aggregation models have moved further in Labor's favour. But importantly, they suggest that the rate of movement towards Labor may be slowing or even coming to a stop.