Day 10 - 2025 Federal Election

Twenty-seven days until the election on 3 May. The punters are firming on Labor winning this election.

Day 9 - Federal Election 2025

As we wake up this morning, China has retaliated to the Trump tariffs, the S&P500 is down 17.5 per cent on its February peak (down six per cent overnight) and the Australian dollar is trading at 60 cents. The Trump gloss is starting to peel off and in the process it is hurting the Coalition.

Labor continues to push ahead in the betting market. The odds at 7am this morning (my daily collection time) were Labor on $1.53 and the Coalition on $2.50. As I write now at 8.30am, it is $1.50 and $2.62. The odds have flipped from where they were just three weeks ago. The chart is from 7am this morning.

On individual seats, there is not much movement to report. It will take another day or so for the headline movement to filter through to the individual seats. 

On the polling front, a new poll from YouGov has Labor's two-party preferred vote share at 51 per cent. Across all the pollsters, using the pollsters' estimates, I estimate the Labor voting intention is around 50.7 per cent.

Day 8 - 2025 Federal Election - Betting Market

What fun we have when the betting market provider introduces multiple independents into seats. I needed a quick recode to capture this situation. The affected seats were Monash in Victoria (Deb Leonard and Russell Broadbent) and Calare in NSW (Andrew Gee and Kate Hook).

More importantly, there was some movement on both the overall winner charts and the individual seat charts. Both movements were in Labor's favour. 

Overall winner

Individual seats

We will start with the aggregate seat outcomes before looking at the individual seat movements.

With the individual seat markets, the provider has introduced quite a number of additional independents into the mix (in some cases more than one for a particular seat). The seats are listed below in reverse alphabetical order. 

Of note, the leading party has changed in Tangney (WA).