Today's Newspoll was the third Newspoll in a row with the Liberal/National Coalition attracting 45 per cent of the two-party preferred vote to Labor's 55 per cent (as published). If this was repeated at an election, Labor would win in a landslide. There is really not much more to say.
The latest Newspoll, which was sampled between 9 and 12 February 2022, gave Labor a two-party preferred vote share of 55 per cent to the Coalition's 45. When I adjust the primary vote estimates for preference flows at the 2019 election, I get a 2pp estimate of 55.1 to 44.9 per cent in Labor's favour. If an election was held with this outcome, it would see a landslide win for Labor.
Newspoll continues to be the pollster most favourable for Labor and least favourable for the Coalition.
Today's Newspoll has the Coalition with 44 per cent and Labor with 56 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. This is about as bad as it gets for the Coalition. Today's poll suggests the Coalition faces a landslide loss at the 2022 election (most likely to be in May 2022).
This is not the first published poll since the 2019 election to have the government at or below 45 per cent. But it is the first poll with this result when the two-party preferred tally is calculated using preference flows at the last election.
The Bayesian aggregation tells much the same story.
The attitudinal polling suggests a slide in the Prime Minister's standing.
Of interest in the primary votes is the sizable vote for the minor, non-duopoly parties.
I will report the betting market response in tomorrow's post. But there has already been some movement. Right now Labor is on \$1.35 and the Coalition is on \$3.00.
