Weekly aggregated poll

Explanatory notes can be found on the Technicals page.

In terms of the 14 September 2013 election announced by the Prime Minister: the Australian Electoral Commission has foreshadowed an election timetable.

Weekly poll aggregation

The only poll released since the last aggregation was the weekly Essential poll, which was a status quo result. So there is little change on last week's aggregated result.

Explanatory notes can be found on the Technicals page.

Poll aggregation

Notes

1. Poll aggregation based on a Bayesian fixed house-effects model, over a six month span, with 100,000 MCMC iterations. House effects across the six polling houses are constrained to sum to zero
2. Poll dates are set to the median date of the polling period
3. House outcome estimates based on a national probability model

Blog holiday

Dear reader, I am heading off for an extended blog holiday.