There was movement at the station ...

With apologies to Banjo Patterson for the headline, we are seeing a significant change in the polls. Since the start of 2025 we have seen a significant drift in primary voting intention away from the mainstream parties (Labor and the Coalition) to the Greens and Others. One consequence of this drift has been a weakening in the Coalition's lead in the two-party preferred polls, especially if we allocate preference flows based on the flows at the previous 2022 election. We are also seeing Albanese firming in the attitudinal polls. 

Let's start with the first preference, primary vote polls. Both Labor and the Coalition have declined since the start of 2025. 

And collectively, the minor parties are in their best position since the previous election.

In respect of the 2pp vote, Labor's position has been improving since the start of 2025. 

The picture is better for Labor if I estimate the two-party preferred voting intention based on the preference flows from the 2022 election.

In outcome terms, neither Labor nor the Coalition would be able to form majority government if these poll numbers were repeated at the 2025 election. I have not modelled the next election, but my intuition for how it will play out with the current poll numbers is as follows.

The Greens' polling is above its 2022 election baseline. Consequently, it is possible they could hold or even increase on their four seat representation in the House. However, they will find holding onto Ryan and Brisbane in Queensland challenging, given the improvement in the Coalition's primary position and the decline of Labor's. My best guess is that the Greens will hold Melbourne and should hold Griffith. The Greens and may win one or two further seats. Overall, let's call it 3 seats for the Greens.

While the Others polling is slightly down on the 2022 election, it is likely that most of the independents and single party seats would be re-elected (currently 10 independents and 2 single seat parties). It is also possible that significant, well known people might run as independents and capture further seats. Conversely, one or two of the current crop of teal-independents might lose their seats back to the Coalition. Of note, the teal independent Ms Kylea Tink's seat of North Sydney was abolished in the 2024 NSW redistribution. Ms Tink has indicated that she will not be running for Parliament in 2025. I am assuming 11 independents and single party seats (in total) in the new Parliament (noting some of the individuals may change).

While the One Nation component of the Others vote is above its 2022 election baseline. I do not expect it to sufficiently concentrated in a particular seat to win that seat.

I expect the Coalition will increase on its currently held 58 seats, by around 8 to 13 seats (ie. they will win in the range 66 to 71 seats). However, I do not expect them to reach the numbers sufficient to form majority government in the 150 seat Parliament.

Conversely, I expect Labour to lose between 7 and 12 seats from its 77 seat election baseline in 2022 (ie. they would win between 65 and 70 seats). Again, I do not expect Labor to be in a position to form majority Government. 

The government formed in the next Parliament will be determined by the negotiating skills of the two major political parties, and the make-up of the Parliament in terms of the number of Greens, independents and single party members. It is possible for the Coalition to win more seats than Labor, but not be part of the government that follows the election.

Interestingly, in the attitudinal polling we are seeing an improvement for the Prime Minister, particularly with net satisfaction. 

The betting market remains positive on the Coalition's prospects at the next election, giving the Coalition a 63.6 per cent probability of forming the  next Government.

Tell me, do you agree with my intuition above, or do you see it differently. 

Late February 2025 Polling Update

Two-party preferred

The localised regression has Labor on 49 per cent, and the Coalition on 51 per cent of the two party preferred vote (2pp/TPP). There is not much change since the start of 2025.

The Bayesian aggregation of the pollster 2pp estimates, using a Gaussian random walk, has Labor on 48.6 per cent, and the Coalition on 51.4 per cent. Again, there is little change since the start of this calendar year. It should be noted that Newspoll has adjusted its 2pp methodology, which I have reflected as "Newspoll 2".

In addition to using the pollster's 2pp estimate, I have started looking at 2pp estimates based on preference flows from primary votes at the 2022 election. Taking this approach, we produce estimates that are a little more favourable to Labor, with 49.3 per cent of the 2pp vote. 

I am a little troubled that my 2pp estimates calculated from primary votes shows a wider dispersion around the median from the Bayesian aggregation, compared with the pollster 2pp estimates. This suggests the possibility that some pollsters may have refined their 2pp estimate process to better align with other pollsters (aka herding).

Primary votes

Turning to the Primary votes, the localised regression has the Coalition on 39.0 per cent, Labor on 30.7 per cent of the first preference primary vote. The Greens have 12.4 per cent and others (including independents) have 19.0 per cent.

I have been experimenting with a monthly Dirichlet Bayesian model, which does not include house effects in the model (just like the localised regressions above). In that model the Coalition has 39.0 per cent, Labor has 30 per cent, the Greens have 12.4 per cent and other parties have 18.6 per cent.

Using my standard Bayesian model based on a Gaussian random walk for primary votes, the median estimate of voting intention was as follows. The Coalition has 38.9 per cent of the first preferences. Labor has 30.0 per cent. The Greens have 12.5 per cent and others have 18.6 per cent. 

The betting market

Since early November 2024, the betting market has the Coalition as the favourite to form government after the next election. The Coalition is currently on a 64 per cent win probability. Labor is on 36 per cent.

Betting and polling update: mid-February

With the Victorian by-elections on 8 February for two seats, we have seen some movement on the betting market for the next Federal election. Currently, punters are giving the Coalition a 58 per cent probability of forming government after the next Federal election. Note: the gaps in the following charts are those days where I did not collects odds from SportsBet.

Using aggregation techniques to assess how the population would vote if an election was held now, based on the the two-party preferred estimates from pollsters, Labor would win 48.8 per cent of the two party preferred vote and the Coalition would win 51.2 per cent. While this gives an advantage to the Coalition, it is likely that neither the Coalition nor Labor would win sufficient seats in their own right to form government. Both major parties would seek to negotiate with the Greens and independent members elected to Parliament, in order to form government. Note: the Gaussian Process (GP) model performs poorly at the end of the series, and I consequently give higher credence to the Gaussian Random Walk (GRW) model.

In terms of the Primary votes: Labor's primary vote is around 30.8 per cent. The Coalition is around 39.0 per cent. the Greens are around 12.0 per cent. And others are around 18.2 per cent. The Greens, Labor and Others are all down on the previous election. The Coalition's poll results are better than its performance at the last election.

In summary, the most recent model estimates are set out in the following table. 

	2pp vote ALP	2pp vote L/NP	Primary vote ALP	Primary vote GRN	Primary vote L/NP	Primary vote Other
Gaussian Random Walk - Normal likelihood - fixed priors	48.75	51.23	30.30	11.83	39.47	18.37
Gaussian Process - Normal likelihood - fixed priors	49.26	50.74	30.76	11.97	39.03	18.24
150-day local regression	48.70	51.30	30.57	11.89	39.58	17.82

Finally, turning to the attitudinal polling, we have the following charts.