Day 36 - 2025 Federal Election

The election is tomorrow! Today we have two more polls:  Freshwater strategy 51.5/48.5 to Labor, and DemosAU 51/49 to Labor. The aggregation remains unchanged.

If the polls are right, we are looking at a new Parliamnt much like the 2022 Parliament.

The latest polls were just outside of the central 52-53 percentage band to Labor. Nonetheless, the polls collectively remain somewhat under-dispersed (as indicated in the next two charts), but less so than yesterday; there is about a 1 in 120 chance that the Chi squared statistic would lie at or to the left of its position on the chart below. This means the statistic would fall inside of a central (two-sided) 99% confidence interval. 

The betting market has had a blow-out in Labor's favour. This is pretty typical of the betting market and the favourite in the final days of an election campaign. The odds (at 6.30am this morning) were Coalition \$11 and Labor \$1.06.

But the individual seats market, still sees minority government as the most likely outcome.